Snap UK General Election

[Hrothbern]

British supermarkets are now buying more British meat, dairy products, fruit and veg, which is in turn helping to save British farming from going under (dairy especially) because of the fall in Sterling. My dad is a recently retired agronomist (google it), who still gets the gossip from the agricultural world and the general consensus is they are more optimistic now due to the fall in the pound. This rarely if ever gets covered in the media though, a more stable or growing agricultural industry. A lower value pound is no disaster, and it'll develop an export economy over time for goods and services. Many analysts (including Deutsche Bank) were saying the pound was over-valued and the current range is better a fit for the UK/Stirling.

Sounds very plausible what you say

I think the headline news on the GBP is too much dominated by big international Londondon Stock Exchange companies.
When they consolidate their figures and make an asymetrical profit percentage or cost base structure between UK and foreign countries, or an important part of the imported cost or stock of domestic UK companies, their main overview figures look silly and they have to add the same big overviews without the currency change effects to give a better picture.
But that leaves the door wide open for confusion and nervous behaviour causing in effect more erratic and lower share values.

 

[Arakhor]

Well, the agricultural industry may be growing, but unless we do something about the barely-paid/immigrant labour force, there won;t be nearly enough people to pick the food.

 

[Borachio]

What we need is a Pol Pot or Mao to force everyone out to the fields.

not really

 

[HAND]

Sounds very plausible what you say

I think the headline news on the GBP is too much dominated by big international Londondon Stock Exchange companies.
When they consolidate their figures and make an asymetrical profit percentage or cost base structure between UK and foreign countries, or an important part of the imported cost or stock of domestic UK companies, their main overview figures look silly and they have to add the same big overviews without the currency change effects to give a better picture.
But that leaves the door wide open for confusion and nervous behaviour causing in effect more erratic and lower share values.

The FTSE 100 on the LSE recovered well after the referendum vote due to many companies earnings are in US dollars and the exchange rate with the falling pound boosted their share prices. The FTSE 250 and 350 was hit harder and therefore more erratic movements as you say. The word "asymmetrical" sums the UK up in a nutshell.. There is very much an "All roads lead to Rome/London" mentality, which could change overtime as the economy may become less London-centric.

Well, the agricultural industry may be growing, but unless we do something about the barely-paid/immigrant labour force, there won;t be nearly enough people to pick the food.

I suspect the crackdown on working immigration is not going to be as stringent as many speculate, businesses will get the workers they need in my opinion. The 3 million EU citizens in the UK are allowed to stay also. One of the main reasons that Poles are leaving is mainly due to the cheaper pound making it less worth while for them, so they go to a Euro country to work instead, which can happen anyway regardless of Brexit.

 

[Traitorfish]

agronomist (google it)

Y'know, you'll catch more flies with honey than with barely-veiled contempt.

 

[Arakhor]

When I read that, I thought, "oh, he's a farmer?" It's certainly better than "waste disposal engineer" or the like.

 

[HAND]

Y'know, you'll catch more flies with honey than with barely-veiled contempt.

No contempt meant, to be honest.

When I read that, I thought, "oh, he's a farmer?" It's certainly better than "waste disposal engineer" or the like.

Lol, grow up.

 

[Borachio]

No contempt meant, to be honest..

I must say it came across as insulting to me, too.

The implication being that an oik like me wouldn't know what it was without googling it.

But then I thought "Poor HAND, he probably frequents people who don't know it, and have never heard of, or used google, before. Or maybe it really does mean something that I've never heard of, and I should google it." (But I didn't.)

 

[HAND]

I must say it came across as insulting to me, too.

The implication being that an oik like me wouldn't know what it was without googling it.

But then I thought "Poor HAND, he probably frequents people who don't know it, and have never heard of, or used google, before. Or maybe it really does mean something that I've never heard of, and I should google it." (But I didn't.)

First time I've asked for someone to google agronomist.. Don't worry I won't bother in future

 

[Arakhor]

Lol, grow up.

Because saying that to anyone on the Internet has ever been any sort of telling response.

 

[HAND]

Because saying that to anyone on the Internet has ever been any sort of telling response.

Well I was simply making a point about UK agriculture, and it somehow evolved into insulting my Dad's previous profession.. Oh well this is the Internet as you say

 

[Arakhor]

In slight mitigation, I'd only come across agronomy as basically farm science, but then I looked it up because of course this is the Internet and almost anything can be looked up in a matter of moments these days.

 

[HAND]

In slight mitigation, I'd only come across agronomy as basically farm science, but then I looked it up because of course this is the Internet and almost anything can be looked up in a matter of moments these days.

Bioscience degrees are generally wanted for entry now including Biology, Biochemistry, Chemistry and as well as more standard degrees like Geography, Environmental Science and Agriculture. It's a mixed bag profession with many overlapping areas with the Bio-Chemical /Agro-Chemical(BASF etc) industries working alongside. Dad did an Applied Biology degree in the '70s which gave him more scope in career so to speak. Anyway I probably shouldn't have mentioned it has distracted from the original point I was making.

Just to add, the UK will still be working alongside with massive AgroChemical companies like BASF, Bayer and so forth, regardless of the type Brexit that occurs(if it occurs). The UK will still likely to have to abide by new EU legislation for AgroChem/Agriculture/Food Science, so therefore more Bioscience grads will be needed as well as Geography and Agriculture degree type grads in Europe as a whole.

 

[Hrothbern]

Bioscience degrees are generally wanted for entry now including Biology, Biochemistry, Chemistry and as well as more standard degrees like Geography, Environmental Science and Agriculture

It is pretty far away from the snap UK election, and has no effect on the current turmoil of Brexit, but anything to do with agricultural and food processing improvements is building up a normal economy for all people and decreasing the trade debt of the UK.

From: http://foodresearch.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Food-and-Brexit-briefing-paper-2.pdf
"The UK is heavily dependent on other EU member states for food. UK food production is below 60% of consumption and particularly reliant on imports for fruit and many vegetables. Supporters of Brexit have not once addressed the UK’s dependency on EU producers and suppliers. The UK suffers a huge food trade gap of £21bn. Not only is the UK reliant on the rest of Europe for food but this imbalance is a drain on the national balance of payments"
This 40% food gap can ofc not be completely covered by domestic UK food production. The estimate however is that 75% of that 40% can be grown and processed in the UK, which is good for a significant 15 billion GBP net trade balance improvement.

This general situation is lingering on meanwhile for decades. The Tories focussed on the big money and the union rooted Labour party not mentioning it at all except for some environmental conditions on agriculture. Leaving it up to the civil society to improve the agricultural knowledge and private initiatives to grow it.
Another wasted opportunity to grow a wholesome economy of the ideological and partisan driven current political culture.
Will they ever learn to think further ahead than the next quarterly results or poll ?

 

[Kyriakos]

Relying on foreign countries for 40% of your food, in a time where global relations are changing swiftly, is a potentially dangerous state of affairs.
Besides, maybe it would be an opportunity for new local investment, eg creating a new (and large) agri company?

 

[Borachio]

Gah! What the UK really doesn't need right now is any new large agri-businesses.

The ones already in the UK are quite bad enough.

 

[Hrothbern]

Gah! What the UK really doesn't need right now is any new large agri-businesses.

The ones already in the UK are quite bad enough.

Getting a normal food supply and rebuilding a more balanced and normal economy, supplying normal jobs with more equality than the Finance service business, is not about "right now",
that is at least 1-2 decades before you really get sizable benefits. But it starts with growing your knowledge base in the civil society and have it incorporated in your long term strategy.
The EU started, besides the peacekeeping (between France and Germany primarily) with Coal, Steel and Agriculture as issues to avoid conflicts and to improve yields. If you dig in the EU figures of the past of what has been done on agriculture to improve crop yields, flanking civil society efforts and following commercial activities, subsidising farmers from the benefits downstream the food chain, to secure continuity, jobs and stability, you can see that it has been a long process, a rewarding process and delivering an agri-business in a decent shape.

I wonder with all the hectics around Brexit, how much in the UK has actually been done to have a general transition strategy for a post-Brexit economy that is sustainable and stable.
I only see lipservice to a global Britain in military and trading terms, London finance services and yet still no vision for the normal economy or anything showing that development.

 

[Arakhor]

I wonder with all the hectics around Brexit, how much in the UK has actually been done to have a general transition strategy for a post-Brexit economy that is sustainable and stable.

The Government still seems shocked that Brexit is even a thing and we already know that the civil service didn't (or wasn't allowed to) make plans in advance for such an occasion. If our ministers haven't even the faintest idea what Brexit will entail, knowing how to move beyond that seems quite outside their reach.

 

[EnglishEdward]

This 40% food gap can ofc not be completely covered by domestic UK food production. The estimate however is that 75% of that 40% can be grown and processed in the UK, which is good for a significant 15 billion GBP net trade balance improvement.

I regard such an estimate as optimistic.

And in my opinion getting near that would now require a socialist labour government to implement the report's statement that follows:

It would be better, surely, if food-producing land was in future judged not by profitability or subsidy
level alone but by how many people are fed per hectare. These are the kinds of goals which a shift from
the CAP to a Common Sustainable Food Policy or post-Brexit food system ought to espouse.

I wonder with all the hectics around Brexit, how much in the UK has actually been done to have a general
transition strategy for a post-Brexit economy that is sustainable and stable.

I reckon the actually done amount is about ZERO !

The main battle going on in the UK is between the Leavers (allegedly Hard Brexit) and the Pretend Leavers (dishonestly called soft Brexit) really BRINOs.
The UK based financial services desperately want a Pretend Exit so that it can continue and expand its mis selling of credit cards, derivatives, loans,
insurances, mortgages, pensions etc in Europe in much the same way it has done in the UK, and its lobbying is drowning out other sectors' views.

When it looked like the UK would remain in the EU, the UK financial sector used the single market argument whenever it could to prevent other member states from
regulating aginst excesses while directing UK politicans to veto any European Union regulation. I have no doubt that had the UK voted to remain the inevitable
scandals would have resulted in regulation being brought in despite UK objections, but that would take a few years; long enough for a few billionnaire fraudsters.

 

[Borachio]

The EU started, besides the peacekeeping (between France and Germany primarily) with Coal, Steel and Agriculture as issues to avoid conflicts and to improve yields. If you dig in the EU figures of the past of what has been done on agriculture to improve crop yields, flanking civil society efforts and following commercial activities, subsidising farmers from the benefits downstream the food chain, to secure continuity, jobs and stability, you can see that it has been a long process, a rewarding process and delivering an agri-business in a decent shape

Well, OK.

But whether CAP has been a success is really rather debatable, imo.

And besides it's done less than nothing for African agriculture exports to Europe.

Something that, arguably, could have made a real contribution to ending world poverty.