Sullla's AI Survivor Season Seven - Game 2 Thread

[Saxo Grammaticus]

Sullla's AI Survivor Season Seven continues Friday, April 14th on Twitch at noon EDT, 5pm BST.

You can currently catch Game 1 on Twitch or YouTube.

Game 2 sees the defending champion Mansa Musa along with Augustus Caesar and Lincoln face off against Hannibal and Suryavarman, with neutrals Bismarck and Suleiman. For those interested, the runner-up will join Hammurabi in the southern hemisphere of his playoff.

Watch the preview here, read up on the game here, and make your predictions here. And a hearty welcome to all to discuss the game in this thread and follow along for what will hopefully be even half as entertaining as the first game!

With Game 2 concluded, the stream is available to watch on Twitch.

 

[Keler]

Here is my prediction.
Suleiman should win this game around 340s turns. Best diplomatic situation, but in the middle. Might have oppurtunities.
Mansa musa first to die in case Suryavarman snowballs and wins the game instead. To be fair Suryavarman dogpile first to die is just as likely but I'm trying to distribute my prediction in both outcomes hoping for points.
Win condition is space race. The only way Bismarc to win is through domination. Suryavarmans most likely victory type is domination and others to win through space is more likely.
Runner up is Hannibal. He should be taking at least second place both in tech race and in score. If he manages to kill and get most of Lincoln with ottomans help he should be fine. He have to be ally with Suleiman otherwise things will go ugly for him. Since he will outtech Augustus he is more likely to be second place I think.
Overall Suryavarman has the best capital and surroundings, largest empire in the game easily. And without interrupt he looks like he can win any 1v1 wars. But again, wrong target then he is in dogpile danger.

 

[lymond]

Moderator Action: stuck

 

[Fippy]

Should be interesting..Mansa's start looks even worse today than yesterday
If Sury plants a city around corn & Jumbos, where will Mansa really go? Humans will share all that capital food but totally random for AIs.

 

[danjuno]

I think Mansa still takes it in this field, but I think Sully at least gets second since he's got room like Hammy in game 1. Lincoln is toast.

 

[Saxo Grammaticus]

This is a hard map for Mansa Musa. Not only is starting position less than ideal, but all his best expansions put him in direct conflict with 3-5 neighbors. He has a good deal of land but will probably be in a forever war with Suryavarman, with likely interventions from Germany and Rome--low chance of being left to his own devices. Best case scenario: he adopts the dominant religion and through conflict to the west partitions the Khmer. Still, he could be the next target... Less likely but more utopian would be a religious bloc that unites Germany, Mali, and Rome against their more volatile neighbors.

 

[Fippy]

I just paused the resource overview in Sullas video..Mansa has such a bad corner even beyond his starting area.
NW has one good spot (wet corn, small river and pigs), but south jungle and west not much besides copper.
Won't pick him in this game
Sury as neighbor is also painful (creative, semi-warmonger and usually starts fast).

Sury on the other hand starts inland (no coast nonsense), rivers with gold & food and some floodplains. Jumbos very close for +2 happy early. Pretty good.

Augustus has the plains cow start (we will hear some yays about that from a certain user ).
Tons of floodplains on a long river. But i think his start isn't good enuf to back an overall disappointing Survivor leader. Coastal cap without seafood

Biz looks very close to Sulei and even worse: his best expansion land seems to be west too.
Some early potential..starts with Hunting and has 2 river jumbos, they are very good tiles for AIs cos they help with getting (silly) builds done faster + extra
to fund more expansion. If he misses the river spots between him and Sulei i don't like his chances..if he gets them who knows.
Similar peaceweight to Sulei & Augu helps and i don't think he will be FTD.

Sulei has an excellent start with agri + 2 river corn.
Close copper with enuf food, plenty river riles with loads of floodplains close.
Needs the gold tile west badly (no other happy or CHA). Dry rice + cows poison pill NE, he has so many good potential spots everywhere else.
If his double corn + IMP results in fast expansion i like his chances.

Lincoln looks boxed in right away
His cap resources are also pretty weak compared to others..what more can i say, bad leader + bad start = nice FTD pick and not much else.

Hannibal needs a succesful first war..he has room for only 3-4 good cities before running into jungle.
Close copper could help with that, Sury & Sulei not being exactly easy rush targets doesn't.
Best possible scenario i can see: Sury has no copper close (i think), Hanni builds his first city west and connects copper very early..then rushes him.
Lots of ifs and maybes, overall i don't like his chances much.

 

[Nick723]

Feeling slightly demoralised after my man Pericles got soundly beaten in game one. Although when Gandhi declares on you, you maybe just know it’s not your day. Literally cannot believe Hammurabi won it, one of the least effective AIs ever!

Anyhow….

Game 2 leaves me scratching my head and second guessing myself. Need a big score to drag me up the leaderboard following my null points in round 1.

I like Hannibal as an AI, strong techer + low peace weight is a good combo. I’m surprised he’s not seeded, always seems to do well in my games. That said, not enamoured enough with his position to believe here. I’m going to plump for Sury.

 

[Saxo Grammaticus]

Hannibal's primary issue, as @Fippy alludes to, is a lack of space. I would not be surprised if he basically gets what's in the preview minus incense, uranium, and anything to the east. That said, he has river, coast, and Financial going for him, meaning that he should be able to tech well enough through to the mid-game to take advantage of conquest opportunities. His 4-6 cities may just fall short of a decisive military advantage over Lincoln. Instead, he could have better odds attacking the Khmer while Suryavarman gets mired in an early stalemate with Mansa Musa.

 

[Kaitzilla]

I always regret picking a civ in the middle and Suryavarman let me down last season too.
That start though with the gold mine.

Mansa is a monster if no one bothers him.
Who will squash him this game?
Can he blaze a culture win with just marble?

Bismarck can do good in wars, but both Rome and Ottomans have strong production capitals.

Lincoln is always a pushover.

Hannibal is decent, but don't underestimate his ability to screw up cramped starts near jungle.

This one is not easy for me like Game 1 was.
I'll have to brood over it.


Only thing bouncing around in my head is Mansa gets an early religion, it spreads down the coast to Rome, and they are pretty nice to each other.
What can they do with that I wonder?

Odd number of civs means 1 civ gets left alone to team up and down someone.

 

[lymond]

Hanny does not declare at Pleased either which kinda nerfs his AI a bit. He did quite poorly last year in a similar starting situation. If I recall, he expanded slowly and settled crap cities while getting boxed in. I think one of the Persians knocked him out early. (I remember cause he was my pick that game)

 

[Saxo Grammaticus]

Game 2 can be summed up as Ottoman hegemony or chaos. I agree with @Keler that Suleiman is the frontrunner and @Fippy that it has a lot to do with his excellent start. I mean, who honestly gave Suleiman double river corn? My guess is he will settle for the gems to the north and then mop up food resources. His leader blurb strikes me as underselling Suleiman in this situation, where Imperialistic allows him to rapidly expand at the expense of his neighbors, and Philosophical encourages him to tech on rivers while pleased with the world. If Suleiman shares a religion with his neighbors, he will have clear opportunities for conquest. If not, he will face potential dogpiling but will also retain a free hand for Domination.

Two scenarios for a chaotic post-Ottoman world: First, a narrow window where Suryavarman's immense early unit buildup overwhelms Suleiman before the latter techs ahead. Second, a dogpile from 3+ neighbors where Suleiman is unable to negotiate separate peaces.

As for Runner-Up and First-to-Die...that's where the chaos creeps in. It looks like it could be a long free-for-all if Suleiman is eliminated, but diplomacy should be dynamic either way. Personally, I favor Suryavarman in second with Mansa Musa first to die, as that provides some counterbalance to Ottoman expansion in the south. I am somewhat reluctant to pick Mali here, as that TOTALLY backfired with Gandhi in Game 1. Augustus could be an outside pick for second, as he is unlikely to die first and has diplomatic room to maneuver even if Imperialistic has less impact in his corner.

In any case, should be a more compressed game than last week

Hanny does not declare at Pleased either which kinda nerfs his AI a bit. He did quite poorly last year in a similar starting situation. If I recall, he expanded slowly and settled crap cities while getting boxed in. I think one of the Persians knocked him out early. (I remember cause he was my pick that game)

Hannibal has better land quality though less of it than last season. I see no opportunity for 92-turn settlers, for what that's worth

 

[Fippy]

Mansa as FTD is tempting (and fun), but he has Skirms.
I think Lincoln will be the favorite there..which ofc means ~50% picks will be on him.

 

[ManiaMuse89]

Mansa as FTD is tempting (and fun), but he has Skirms.
I think Lincoln will be the favorite there..which ofc means ~50% picks will be on him.

I think Mansa will die at some point, just not first.

 

[Kaitzilla]

Hanny does not declare at Pleased either which kinda nerfs his AI a bit. He did quite poorly last year in a similar starting situation. If I recall, he expanded slowly and settled crap cities while getting boxed in. I think one of the Persians knocked him out early. (I remember cause he was my pick that game)

That is a good point.

The only AI that can declare at Pleased in this game are Mansa, Suryavarman, and Bismarck.

 

[Nick723]

Community predictions are up again!

Civ4 AI Survivor

Serious undervaluing of Suleiman’s chances I think!

Love @Plains-Cow ’s entry once again!

 

[Slashninja1467]

Hey all, Slashin' from the fantasy contest here . After my incredible luck netting 5 points from hammurabi, here are some insights towards my picks this game.

Augustus 1st, Mansa 2nd, Sury FTD, space.

Thought process: Copy Pasted from the preview.
Suryavarman has a GORGEOUS start...and little else. The name of the game here is coalition building and suryavarman's chances of building one are concerningly low. his PW situation is wildly out of place, with only Hannibal as the only natural ally on this map and he looks particularly squeezed in his corner of the map with fairly mediocre land quality. Yet that may not even be a true guarantee, as there are no leaders with mysticism this game, making the two most likely leaders here to get a religion sury with his bfc gold tile and minority culture flavor and his neighbor suleiman with a beautiful start and early flood plains tiles for the commerce lead. MM is the only other leader with a religious/cultural flavor to vie for a religion, but a commerce deprived start and a lack of fishing means he won't be competitive for the early religion race. Suleiman has the advantage here, with a luscious river network that connects to Hannibal, Lincoln, and Bismarck's capitals ripe for Islamic proselytization. Even if religions don't spread in Sulei's favor, sury's creative pressure may very well bring tempt Suleiman into a protracted war and diminish the effect both of their outstanding starts could have. Sury better hope to snowball or he may find himself amidst too many enemies looking to annex the kingdom of Khmer into their own provinces. FTD looks like a stong case here, but he'll put up a good fight before going down.

Mansa while isolated, has an ill-fitting start with very low food output around his vicinity. It's expected he'll get to a slow start, and even with being left alone, may just expand too slowly to be truly competitive for first place. Augustus has the best diplomatic situation, a sheltered position, a decent start with flood plains galore, and an entire southern tundra to exploit his imperialistic trait amidst a wartorn continent. I expect he'll get out to a slower start than sulei and Sury, but with practically no chances of sabotaging his own game, seems a strong contender for a peaceful wincon via space. Second is harder to call, the most likely candidates being either Suleiman or Bismarck depending on who better partitions Khmer territory. However, we know how dangerous mansa can be left to his own devices, and mansa 2nd is a hedge in case the expected mansa/augustus comes to fruition for half points. As for hannibal and lincoln, I don't imagine they achieve much outside of their eternal 1v1 and ticking up the war counter. Here's hoping they both survive to score me some wildcard points down the road in fantasy.

Good luck all, and here's hoping I score big in fantasy this game with 4 leaders on the line for this one. If I was braver, I'd pick Augustus/Bismarck, but hedges and all that.

 

[Fippy]

Curious picks there Slashin´
Augu always fell flat even when he had a lot of land in other games.

Geez i almost have to pick Sulei (as Nick wrote) with those community predictions.
60% Space hmmmmm..it's the best one here i can agree with that, domination will be hard for any AI with so much land.
Maybe culture at 16% is worth trying..if Mansa wins despite his bad start, culture will be a strong option.

Joining Lincoln at 58% FTD would be a boring pick, i can see Hannibal fail here so maybe i pick him.

 

[Slashninja1467]

Haha, believe me when I say I'm not terribly confident in Augustus. He's my choice moreso due to process of elimination rather than on his own merits.

Suleiman doesnt necessarily have to found the other religion, just any of those 4 on that river network to spread it to the other 3. Suryavarman's diplomacy looks very dicey this game because it looks like he's going to be left the odd one out in the religious game and theres high chances for that this game. It certainly doesn't help our most militaristic leader suleiman, is the closest by proximity, has a culture minority flavor, has a 3pw differential which is likely cautious on meetup, and likely to be religious buddies with his neighbors whom he won't declare at pleased with. That leaves our two strongest leaders by starting position locked into conflict, our 2 western leaders locked into conflict due to a 8 pw differential despite shared religion, a seeded leader with the worst start yet this season, and bismarck and auggie who are in prime positions for dogpile opportunities. Who knows if bismarck can do it, but his most likely target is suryavarman and with everyone in war mode and leaving settlers inside their capitals, that leaves augustus who likely wont plot with his close pw neighbors to expand to his hearts content across the south ala Gandhi S5 style.

 

[lymond]

Honestly, I think Mansa will actually do pretty well in this game, but I'm not going to pick him. He should most def get the first reli, and likely will end up hoarding most of them. Otherwise, no clue with this bunch how relis will turn out. No one starts with Myst or even has a reli flavor than Mansa.

I think I'm going to fall into the trap and pick Hanny here once again, so I expect to fall on my sword. I like Sully's start position and surrounding land - I think it's the best on the map. I've been torn between picking him and Hanny. However, I think it is Carthage's time and I feel he won't plant an absolute abomination of a first city like he did last year.

First: Hanny
Second: Augie (I think he will mostly do nothing this game and back into the second spot)
FTD: Lincoln (hanny or sury will kill him)

(If I had to bet money on this game I'd go with Sury)