Sullla's AI Survivor Season Seven - Game Four Thread

[lymond]

Game Four scheduled for 05 May 2023 at Noon EST


Sullla's preview on Youtube:

Appears we have a break next week for AI Survivor. We will have more time to discuss and set our predictions. Seems a more evenly matched bunch here with maybe Sitting Bull being the weakest simply due to his AI/flavor. I think the predictions could be all over the place for this game, especially with everyone's favorite Troll King (Wang) in the game. Regardless of the starts, which I've yet to analyze, I think the top 5 leaders here have a chance. Only Joao among that group does not plot at pleased. Bull and Wang do not plot at pleased either. Not much religious flavor at all among the whole bunch, with Sir Wang likely getting Confused first, and likely Confusing some others - not that they care.

Here is the Game 4 Preview page.

Make your predictions HERE

(I hope this OP looks okay to others since I run the "Shades Of Grey" forum style, which is quite dark. Please let me know if you have trouble seeing anything)

 

[AcaMetis]

That is a crazy amount of PRO leaders, including Sitting Bull. Might actually see some AIs move on to the wildcard game this time .

 

[need my speed]

What is this scoring people talk about and where do I see who scores what why? The previous game's video literally ends when Sulla says to move on to the scoring.

 

[lymond]

What is this scoring people talk about and where do I see who scores what why? The previous game's video literally ends when Sulla says to move on to the scoring.

I think he's referring to the fantasy challenge he runs with a few folks. He talks about it and updates a spreadsheet during the game.

Edit: Actually, you can see the spreadsheet on the preview page.

 

[AcaMetis]

Wait, Joao doesn't plot at Pleased? I swear that guy has DoWed me more often than Shaka and Genghis Khan combined.

 

[lymond]

Wait, Joao doesn't plot at Pleased? I swear that guy has DoWed me more often than Shaka and Genghis Khan combined.

That's what you get for not accepting is inevitable early demand. He will be friends for life after that.

 

[lymond]

Hmm....I watched the video now. I have to say this may be one game where I go with the #1 seed here. Giggles just has a great start, and if he's smart he will send his first settler to the PH marble spot which would just be insane if he does. Joao, Qin and Pete all have strong starting spots with Joao's being quite suited to his traits. I'd be quite envious of Qin's as a human player. All 3 of those appear to have a good bit of room to expand.

Bull and Wang, while being the weakest of the bunch, also seem to have the weakest starts imo. Both I think could get a bit boxed in with some relatively poor land.

One issue with Gilgs is I could see him targetting one or both of Wang or SB early and suffering some wars of attrition, especially with SB who can be a very tough nut to crack.

Mao's start is not particularly bad, but his land seems underwhelming overall, and he could suffer from box-in depending on what Expandy McXpandypants does to his east. Mao always seems to find a way to stick around in these games, but I don't see much potential here for a first-place spot.

 

[Fippy]

Yup..i saw Mansa & Justi on upset alert, but really hard to see Giggles not winning here.
Then again they are AIs..

I don't like such unbalanced maps, SB has no chance and it doesn't even include his bad AI script.

 

[lymond]

I could see Giggles/Mao being very popular 1/2 picks.

 

[Fippy]

Joao has some nice land there, and as we know he usually expands like a plague..but middle of the map = problems i think.
Players could certainly do great things with Qin's start as well, maybe if he gets more of Bully's land than Giggles? But he's prolly not that aggressive.

 

[dankok8]

I'm leaning Gilga here because he's probably got the best leader personality and has a very good start. Then again, he might decide to attack Sitting Bull and derail his game.

 

[ManiaMuse89]

This is probably the hardest game to call so far I think. Starting location will probably influence the game more than previous games. Any of Gilgamesh/Mao/Joao/Peter/Qin have a chance to win I think.

Wang probably FTD, he just has a bad AI for whatever reason. He also has a particularly bad starting location that I would say is borderline unfair.

Sitting Bull usually survives a while but will probably fall behind in tech so not a winner candidate.

Gilgamesh has reasonable starting lands depending on which way he expands first. He can do well but is not the most coherent leader.

Mao has the potential to get a bit boxed but if he can expand to a decent size and then take over another AI then I think he will have a chance.

Joao has very nice lands and should expand (although knowing the AI he probably will build wonders instead). Could put himself in a nice position early game although on the flip side he will have borders with basicially everyone which could make diplo tricky.

Qin also has nice lands and just needs to expand. His economy is usually good but his problem is that he rarely attacks and sometimes peaces out of wars even when he is winning which is a bit silly. Definitely a dark horse though if he gets big enough.

Peter has ok lands yet again though could get a bit boxed. His AI is probably a bit too aggressive for his own good but if he survives long enough to get a big cossack stack he could start to snowball.

Victory condition I guess about 60% space, 35% domination, 5% random diplo or Gilgamesh cultural victory.

Likely more wars than previous games due to number of leaders and likelihood of stalemate wars peacing out.

 

[Keler]

Qin shi huang has so many corns around, I couldn't count.
I predict
Gilgamesh spaceship turn 318
Qin Shi Huang runner up
Sitting Bull first to die
10 wars
In worst case scenario Qin Shi Huand steals all Nativeamerica+Korea land leaving gilgamesh for runner up or wildcard spot and wins the game. Or even worse Peter or Mao ends up first to die and Joao wins and qin ends up second and gilgamesh goes to wildcard third place finish. But I am not that cool of a person to make those predictions so lets hope someone who hates blind people selecting pool leaders does such entries and enjoy points whereas literally everybody else gets zero points.
Anyway, as everybody says Gilgamesh can't lose 1v1 against Sitting Bull or Wang Kon at all. Not with that start.

 

[Gumbolt]

Gilga 1st. Tucked away and great start. Needs to not attack SB early on and get in a long war. Phants will be good.
Qin 2nd? I like Qins start. Agriculture and mining. Corn/copper and gold nearby. Can't go wrong? Maybe too in middle but have faith in CKN.

SB - FTD. Nearly picked Koreans but mountain range may put off Gilga targetting wise.
SB as next to Gilga.

Korea start is weird with starting techs. Lot of forest which could mess him up too.
JoaII a bit similar tech wise. Can't declare at pleased?
Mao land is rubbish.
SB not great start and won't declare at pleased.
Russian meh.

9 wars. No warmongers?
Spaceship 320

 

[danjuno]

Giggles 1/Mao 2 with SB FTD seems the safe bet here. Mao is the shakiest of the three picks because his corner just sucks, but he has a habit of making something out of nothing so, eh? Overall, this is a pretty mediocre field.

Also, what in God's name is Wang's start?

 

[dankok8]

 

[dankok8]

Gilga needs to wait till he has Catapults and attack Wang and not Sitting Bull IMO. I think Peter is the biggest dark horse in this one. Apart from Gilga he's the only militaristic AI so he's bound to push the envelope and if he rolls over someone like Joao watch out.

 

[Fippy]

Not feeling Mao in this game..looks like little actually good land for him and no outstanding tiles like gold, with tundra close.

Peter needs an early copper war from this position, but it's not riverside so will he tech wheel soon enuf..
imo AIs want an explosive start from such corners, Peter needs so many techs here i think there are better picks.

Wang's position isn't bad imo, he has gold + furs close for happy and will get a reli for more. Marble mine for some early
Joao shields him from the more aggressive bunch SW while Giggles will likely go for SB first. He has an actually useful AI trait with FIN.

 

[Elliot_Ness]

I'm liking Gilgamesh. Corner to himself, happy recourses, elephants in BFC might push him to early construction rush which might be good against this field. Not a lot of techers on this map, so an early war shouldn't set him too far behind. Especially if he goes west.

 

[Fippy]

We are trying to find something so we can not pick Giggles..
I think ~70% will go with him, even more than team Mansa or Justi. He has the most obvious best start so far this season.