The 2024 US Presidential Election

Cutlass said:
And others believe Biden has the best foreign policy since GHW Bush.
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W was more lastingly effective on AIDS, in Africa.

"Worked to sabotage it" :lol:

One house of congress, passing compromise bills, slowed by the process of re-election of new speakers, the old ones having been vacated by less than 10 wingnuts on one hand and the entire party apparatus of the other. Even they've realized they're the ones holding everything hostage punishing the country when it's leaders provide actual service.
 
Zarn said:
People really need to diversify their sources and do some research into what happened in Ukraine to prompt the invasion (which I don't believe to be justified but there are "official" and Russian media reasons, actual reasons, and what the West and Western media says are their reasons).
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People really need to state those reasons to educate those who "don't diversify their sources".

For instance, tell us about the "actual reasons".
 
Wow, all of a sudden I am seeing reasons for the Biden campaign to change its drawers.

POLLSTERDATESAMPLEMOETRUMP (R)BIDEN (D)
KENNEDY (I)WEST (I)STEIN (G)SPREAD
Rasmussen Reports4/29 - 5/11205 LV3.04836811Trump+12
Harvard-Harris4/24 - 4/251961 RV—46391221Trump+7
CNN4/18 - 4/23967 RV3.842331643Trump+9
 
Rasmussen is shameless Republican propaganda masquerading as "polling", so they can be safely ignored. The CNN poll is nearly three weeks old, and the sample size is a little too small to be taken seriously anyway. The Harvard poll is also almost two weeks old, so a little stale.

Some of the more recent polls per RCP:
POLLSTERDATESAMPLEMOETRUMP (R)BIDEN (D)SPREAD
RCP Average4/12 - 5/5——46.044.9Trump+1.1
I&I/TIPP5/3 - 5/51264 RV2.84042Biden+2
ABC News/Ipsos4/25 - 4/30RV—4546Biden+1
Morning Consult4/26 - 4/2810109 RV1.04343Tie
 
That I&I/TIPP poll appears to be head up and if so has 18 points undecided? Morning Consult -14 pts? The other poll isn't showing a sample size or MOE?

At any rate I am pointing out the relevant 5-way polls which are brutal for Biden any way you spin it.
 
You're right, @EnglishEdward. When those swing state polls come in, they count for a lot more in people's thinking. On the site, there's a kind of rule-of-thumb that a D has to be up by about 4-5% in national polls to feel confident of winning the swing states.
 
EnglishEdward said:
I am not sure why attention is being paid on national polling when the electoral college system means that it is the swing states that are key.


That site identifies:

Arizona
Georgia
Michigan
Nevada
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

as the seven key swing states.

Do posters agree with that selection ?
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I have been including North Carolina but I really don't think it is a battleground or swing state. Most do, but I don't think Trump can lose North Carolina and still win. Some include Minnesota but I do not, thinking that Biden cannot lose there and still win.

Of the other six Pennsylvania is the closest to a must win for Biden with Michigan being the most likely tipping point state, if the race comes down to one state making the difference. IMO.

The reason I am watching the national polls is that Trump has always overperformed them which makes Biden look like he is in a lot more trouble than one would think from the top line numbers.

But the devil in all this is Kennedy, who still has to get on the ballot on the battleground states and his performance might be dispositive in the end. We don't have 5 way polls in the battleground states as of yet.
 
It is way too early to be clinging to polls.
 
Core Imposter said:
I am guessing Biden is ahead 11-1 in Manhattan. I am sure you are watching that one.
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I don't watch any polls or pay any attention to them unless they show up here and they come under discussion. I will wait until October.
 
Core Imposter said:
I am guessing Biden is ahead 11-1 in Manhattan. I am sure you are watching that one.
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That would be, then, one of those cases of Trump overperforming that you were talking about.
 
~92%?

Damn, no wonder you all hate the EC. You have no meaningful divergent interests if polled that monolithic on this?
 
Birdjaguar said:
I don't watch any polls or pay any attention to them unless they show up here and they come under discussion. I will wait until October.
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Good call, I'd wait at least until the 10th.

The 2024 United States presidential debates are a series of scheduled debates between major candidates of the 2024 United States presidential election. Four general election debates sponsored by the Commission on Presidential Debates are scheduled to be held between September 16 and October 9, 2024. As of April 27, 2024, both major parties' presumptive nominees, Donald Trump and Joe Biden, have announced their intention to participate in a televised debate with one another ahead of the 2024 election.
 
I's imagining a black and white Donald zooming in from his prison cell wearing striped prison issue
pyjamas complaining that they've embargoed his orange hair dye as a suspicious substance.
 
Gori the Grey said:
there's a kind of rule-of-thumb that a D has to be up by about 4-5% in national polls to feel confident of winning the swing states.
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At or near 4% seems to be the magic number. Obama won with 3.9% advantage in the popular vote in 2012. Hillary lost with 2.1% popular vote advantage in 2016. Biden won with a 4.5% advantage in 2020.

Meanwhile... The Libertarian Party seems to be getting more open about essentially being a subset of the Republican Party:

Trump will speak at the Libertarian National Convention as he woos independent voters​

Former President Donald Trump will speak at the Libertarian National Convention in Washington, D.C. later this month as he tries to woo voters beyond the Republican base and avoid losing support to independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

“Libertarians are some of the most independent and thoughtful thinkers in our Country, and I am honored to join them in Washington, DC, later this month,” Trump said in a statement issued Wednesday. “We must all work together to help advance freedom and liberty for every American, and a second Trump Administration will achieve that goal.”

He went on to make the case that, “If Libertarians join me and the Republican Party, where we have many Libertarian views, the election won’t even be close. We cannot have another four years of death, destruction, and incompetence. WE WILL WORK TOGETHER AND WIN!”
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...153d10-07ef-11ef-b186-090cb777107e_story.html

So the organizers know in advance that Trump's message is that he wants Libertarians to essentially join the Republican Party... and they invited him to deliver that message at the Libertarian convention. As an aside... lol at the article calling Libertarians "independent". They have their own Party... so at best, they are Libertarian not "independent"... but by the looks of it... they are dropping the facade and just becoming Republican afterall... so either way, they certainly aren't "independent".
 
It is the broader umbrella. But that's not really a surprise, is it?
 
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