Venezuela/Guyana

Well, it took quite a while for US to defeat Vietnam. In the end they didn't, due to international support from China and Russia.

How's Venezuela's ties with China and Russia?

Ample opportunity to stir up another long term unsolvable conflict in hegemon's back yard.

china-xi-says-upgrading-venezuela-ties-after-meeting-maduro

China shared a border with Vietnam, USA wasn't wiling to antagonize USSR over weapons shipments to North Vietnam.

Venezuela is in USA back yard comparatively. Less unified than North Vietnam, large amount of exiles and internal opposition.

Chiba has no deep water navy in any event.
 
China shared a border with Vietnam, USA wasn't wiling to antagonize USSR over weapons shipments to North Vietnam.

Venezuela is in USA back yard comparatively. Less unified than North Vietnam, large amount of exiles and internal opposition.

Chiba has no deep water navy in any event.

China has infinite money perk though. That could be just as valuable as the deep water navy given the situation. But yeah, I am just being conspiratorial for no good reason. China is probably interested in stability most of all. They poured a lot of cash over the years and want a stronger foothold in South America. They likely don't want a conflict spiralling out of control and burning all their investment in the process.
 
China doesn't have infinite money perk and they're reliant on USA trade fir that "infinite" money.

They're also reliant on US navy keeping trade routes open they're nit self sufficient in food or energy.
 
The USA has two oceans, China has one?
The USA has a land connection to two of its biggest trading partners, both trillion-dollar economies, China has … one?
Not to get all Halford Mackinder, but the geography and politics alike favor the USA. Maybe the bomb makes the whole thing irrelevant, maybe it doesn’t?
 
China doesn't have infinite money perk and they're reliant on USA trade fir that "infinite" money.

While USA is reliant on China's production floor, rare earths and so much more. It's not a master/slave relationship. It's a mutual dependency relationship of roughly equal powers.

Anyway, my point is not that. The point is that it looks dubious that it's in the Chinese interest, to direct this action by Maduro. Looks like something Maduro did of his own accord, while hoping to get participation from a regular business partner, the Chinese. Which he is not going to get, given that Chinese are not as crazy as Americans to stir up trouble in the back yard and thus hurt the big business that matters.
 
Guyana is a failed state. Georgetown is one the world's most violent capitals, high rise buildings are rare, if you ever get down there as a tourist the chances of being mugged or even kidnapped and killed are enormous.

55% of Guyana's population have fled that country. The reason is obvious: no jobs, no economy, tons of poverty, no hope, just endless misery, corruption and violence. Of all the three former Guianas, the English Guyana is actually the poorest and most chaotic. Living in Suriname is actually doable if you have the stomach, but living in Guyana is unbearable unless you have a lot of good connections with the corrupt cronyist political elite and can land yourself a nice little closed fenced in home away from the poverty and misery just next door to you.

That said, Venezuela is not in a much better situation. The thing that strikes me is that both Venezuela and Guyana are a lot like failed states, it's a poor man's conflict for oil and not to get yourself irreversibly drowned in poverty and failure, that's all. But still I have somewhat slightly more sympathy for Venezuela given how Guyana actually looks like now.
 
Guyana is a failed state. Georgetown is one the world's most violent capitals, high rise buildings are rare, if you ever get down there as a tourist the chances of being mugged or even kidnapped and killed are enormous.

55% of Guyana's population have fled that country. The reason is obvious: no jobs, no economy, tons of poverty, no hope, just endless misery, corruption and violence. Of all the three former Guianas, the English Guyana is actually the poorest and most chaotic. Living in Suriname is actually doable if you have the stomach, but living in Guyana is unbearable unless you have a lot of good connections with the corrupt cronyist political elite and can land yourself a nice little closed fenced in home away from the poverty and misery just next door to you.

That said, Venezuela is not in a much better situation. The thing that strikes me is that both Venezuela and Guyana are a lot like failed states, it's a poor man's conflict for oil and not to get yourself irreversibly drowned in poverty and failure, that's all. But still I have somewhat slightly more sympathy for Venezuela given how Guyana actually looks like now.

The dirt Venezuela wants might alleviate some of that poverty.

Interviews I saw didn't look to bad. It's their dirt after all not Venezuela. Even if it's a failed state doesn't mean Venezuela can claim it.
 
If Maduro sits in his own border I don't xare. He can run his failed state as he sees fit.

What's conflicting about invading your neighbor on virtually no pretext beyond "I want this dirt".

His "claims" are based on a self selected referendum and very dubious administration in Colonial times.

There's no ethnic or linguistic ambiguity.
"he can run his failed state as he sees fit"

So it's your opinion of Maduro that's running the show. That's fine, but if you want a discussion and not an echo chamber, you've you to bear that in mind 👍
 
"he can run his failed state as he sees fit"

So it's your opinion of Maduro that's running the show. That's fine, but if you want a discussion and not an echo chamber, you've you to bear that in mind 👍

We can nit pick over Maduro effect8vebess as head of state.

Point blank do you think he is right calling dibs on Guyanas land. And if he actually goes through with it and invades?
 
Guyana is in the commonwealth, right? The British will be involved.

The british military are a joke, unable to pull off another Falklands. And the UK already did all they could to Venezuela, stealing their funds abroad when they pretended a puppet ruled the place years ago. My guess is that they will try not to notice anything in the region now. It wasn't british corporations that got oil grands anyway?

I read something now cannot find it that Brazil is already basically doing prepwork to contain a potential invasion. With deploying forces to the border region and rallying neighbors so this may not even require much aid outside of South America itself. Brazil alone likely could crush the invasion forces but using an international coalition likely looks better diplomatically.

On the position of the brazilian government, I'm pretty sure it wants nothing more than to be out of any conflict there.

People talking about invasions should look at maps of the place. And images. That is roadless jungle. It it comes to war then on land it will be a war very different from what people are used to hearing about recently.

This latest noise about the old british Guyana seems to be about the offshore oil exploration grants. My guess then is if it comes to any fighting it will be about intedicting exploitation of that oil or about third countries attempting to build military bases by the coast. Hopefully it will not go beyond yet another dipolomatic spat. But I'm not very optimistic.
 
The british military are a joke, unable to pull off another Falklands. And the UK already did all they could to Venezuela, stealing their funds abroad when they pretended a puppet ruled the place years ago. My guess is that they will try not to notice anything in the region now. It wasn't british corporations that got oil grands anyway?



On the position of the brazilian government, I'm pretty sure it wants nothing more than to be out of any conflict there.

People talking about invasions should look at maps of the place. And images. That is roadless jungle. It it comes to war then on land it will be a war very different from what people are used to hearing about recently.

This latest noise about the old british Guyana seems to be about the offshore oil exploration grants. My guess then is if it comes to any fighting it will be about intedicting exploitation of that oil or about third countries attempting to build military bases by the coast. Hopefully it will not go beyond yet another dipolomatic spat. But I'm not very optimistic.

Terrain is terrible hence why I think it's Maduro grandstanding.

Easier via Brazil apparently that's not gonna happen.
 
I refer you to wikipedia


Guyana achieved independence from the United Kingdom as a dominion on 26 May 1966
and became a republic on 23 February 1970, remaining a member of the Commonwealth.

The "British" prefix has long been removed from both Guyana and the Commonwealth.

There is no more reason for Britain to get involved there than for Canada,
India or New Zealand or other commonwealth countries to get involved there.
 
The dirt Venezuela wants might alleviate some of that poverty.

Interviews I saw didn't look to bad. It's their dirt after all not Venezuela. Even if it's a failed state doesn't mean Venezuela can claim it.
Sure it does. You can do anything you want if you can imagine it.
 
Sure it does. You can do anything you want if you can imagine it.
One can also fail really hard like that. Reality itself puts up resistance against the possibilities of what can be imagined.
 
Well you don’t know until you try. Hooah.
 
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