As expected.
Venezuela/Guyana
- Thread starter Zardnaar
- Start date
Farm Boy
run boy run
- Joined
- Sep 8, 2010
- Messages
- 26,676
Probably Brazil's time to step up, if it wants to.
I think our role should be putting to work and building lives for the quarter of the population that has fled the Venezuelan government **** factory.
Our window licking orange man fans are *****ing thier Depends on that one, tho.
I think our role should be putting to work and building lives for the quarter of the population that has fled the Venezuelan government **** factory.
Our window licking orange man fans are *****ing thier Depends on that one, tho.
Zardnaar
Deity
So when Maduro invades should the US or any other country respond or just let it happen?
Venezuela Boosts Military at Guyana Border
BY JUAN FORERO AND KEJAL VYAS
Venezuela is backing up its threats to annex part of Guyana and secure access to some of the world’s largest oil finds in more than a decade by moving light tanks, missile-equipped patrol boats and armored carriers to the two countries’ border in what is quickly turning into a new security challenge for the Biden administration.
The deployment, visible in satellite images made public Friday and in videos recently posted by Venezuela’s military on social media, is a significant escalation in Caracas’s attempts to get leverage over its neighbor’s newfound energy reserves. It comes despite a written agreement reached in December between Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and Guyanese President Irfaan Ali that denounced the use of force and called for a commission to address territorial disputes. Since late 2023, the Venezuelan government, which has an army of up to 150,000 active soldiers and modern armaments provided by its ally Russia, has ratcheted up claims to the Essequibo, a mostly jungle-covered region that makes up two-thirds of Guyana. The deployment and increasingly bellicose language from Caracas has come as Guyana emerges as one of the world’s hottest energy frontiers after offshore oil discoveries by an Exxon Mobil- led consortium. The former British colony, population 800,000, has a defense force of only 3,000 service members, pushing the government to work more closely with the U.S. to enhance its defensive capabilities. “We are not surprised by the bad faith of Venezuela,” Guyana’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement to The Wall Street Journal in response to questions about the military deployment. “We are disappointed, not surprised.”
Venezuela’s Information Ministry didn’t respond to calls and emails seeking comment. The country has said it is boosting its defenses in response to the U.S. military’s exercises in Guyana in December and the U.K.’s deployment of a small antinarcotics vessel, the HMS Trent, in Guyanese waters. On Wednesday, Venezuela’s minister of defense, Vladímir Padrino, accused Exxon of relying on the U.S. military for its security and using Guyana for its own benefit. “They will receive a proportional, forceful response in the maritime area that rightfully belongs to Venezuela,” he wrote on X. “The Essequibo is ours!”
Maduro’s deployments, along with a referendum he held in December in which he asserted that millions of Venezuelans approved of plans to seize the Essequibo, has alarmed policymakers in the Biden administration. In recent months, U.S. officials from the Defense Department and White House have visited Guyana for talks on increasing cooperation. President Ali said his government would soon buy American defense equipment. “Supporting Guyana to strengthen its defensive capability as it continues to bring enormous oil windfall on the market is something we have a direct interest in,” Juan Gonzalez, a senior Biden adviser, said on Monday. “We certainly don’t want to escalate tensions, but we have our own strategic relationship with Guyana.”
The Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, using satellite images provided by Maxar Technologies and shared exclusively with the Journal, found that in late 2023 and January, Venezuela moved armored vehicles and what appear to be light tanks to Anacoco Island on the Cuyuni River just yards from Guyana. Construction work is also taking place, signaling the expansion of a base there.
Exxon says it is undaunted. “We are not going anywhere— our focus remains on developing the resources efficiently and responsibly, per our agreement with the Guyanese government,” spokeswoman Michelle Gray said. The images show that the movement of materiel and troops was occurring at the as the foreign ministers of Venezuela and Guyana were meeting in Brazil last month under the auspices of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to create a commission to oversee disagreements. “The Venezuelans are moving a bunch of stuff around and kind of making military noise, showing it all off on so-cial media while they’re also trying to tell the Guyanese, ‘Well, let’s negotiate on friendly terms,’ ” said Christopher Hernandez-Roy, deputy director of the Americas Program at CSIS. “This is not being a good neighbor. They’re doing tank drills 140 yards from the Essequibo—yards.”
Videos posted on social media by Venezuela’s military highlight a concerted effort to upgrade a number of river patrol posts along the Essequibo and build a multifloored command center for troops specializing in jungle operations, said Andrei Serbin Pont, president of the Buenos Airesbased research group Cries, which closely tracks Venezuelan military maneuvers. He sees a striking political parallel with Argentina’s failed 1982 invasion of the Falkland Islands from the U.K., in which a desperate military junta sought to distract the public from domestic economic troubles. In Maduro’s nearly 11 years in power, Venezuela’s economy has contracted roughly 70% and 7.7 million people, a quarter of the population, have fled. “If we put this in the Venezuelan context, the regime is setting the conditions to externalize their crisis through a historical land claim,” Serbin Pont said. Former high-ranking Venezuelan military officers and analysts of the country’s army don’t think the regime plans to invade. Rather, they believe the regime, seeing how tiny Guyana has gone from a poor backwater to an important oil producer, wants to negotiate some kind of deal that could benefit Venezuela. “What they’re trying to do is extort,” said Isidro Perez, a former Venezuelan army colonel who studies the regime’s use of the military against adversaries.
Tensions Raise Shipping Costs
The heightened tensions between Venezuela and Guyana on the northern shoulder of South America has prompted shipping-industry risk assessors at Lloyd’s Market Association in London to put Guyana on its global list of areas affected by war, piracy and terrorism.
The designation raises insurance costs for operators and puts Guyanese waters on the same risk level as the Red Sea, where Iran-backed Houthi rebels have attacked ships, as well as the Black Sea routes imperiled by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Venezuela’s buildup near Guyana comes after Washington relaxed some U.S. economic sanctions to nudge Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to hold fair elections and receive Venezuelan migrants deported from the U.S. Instead, rights groups say, he has jailed dissidents and banned rivals from running against him in elections set for this year.
[IMG alt="image"]https://us7-bcdn.newsmemory.com/eebrowser/ipad/html5.check.23030816/ajax-request.php?action=loadImage&pSetup=wallstreetjournal&type=printImage&issue=20240210&filename=aW1NZ2VkVWFOM0hBVnFJQi9ya1hvbmxWL29RdzBjV3FEWE1hLzNtR0ppVFUvM3ZwT0o3WUxabjhyQnI5ckx5WFdpOFJsOWJSS2pEb1hkeEg0OWVzUmEwRVR4S0VXSTVIanZjcXQ5UEVIOWs9&images=pag_4_0,94,486,152,1440-0 &medDpi=199&pageW=417&pageH=415[/IMG]
Members of Venezuela’s National Assembly carry a version of Venezuela’s map that includes Guyana’s Essequibo territory. MATIAS DELACROIX/ ASSOCIATED PRESS
Well when it comes to foreign interventions it's really up to anyone who wants to get involved.
Morality goes out the window if troops cross the border.
USA still has Kenny of munitions for its air power and one coukd expect a short war if they did intervene.
As always picking up the pieces afterwards is the hard part.
If Maduro does pull the trigger.
1. USA intervenes.
2. Someone else intervenes.
3. Do nothing.
Pick your poison. 3 lead to WW2 last time around.
Angst
Rambling and inconsistent
isn't guyana still a member of the commonwealth? has this previously deterred war, and if war has happened, has britain intervened? there's a lot on the list of commonwealth members, and i'm not sure if it effectively means anything in regards to security.
Maduro dreams he is Putin!
Zardnaar
Deity
Commonwealth is just a club no security guarantees.
NZ for example technically only has a defensive pact with Australia the others are defunct.
Commonwealth nations generally get along though so if intervention was to happen they should probably be involved.
Another big win for the Venezuelan people.
Angst
Rambling and inconsistent
thanks, good to know
Zardnaar
Deity
Yup its essentially a social club. Geographic and political differences only go so far.
It's an advantage for trade, visas, diplomatic relations things like that.
UK probably won't intervene, neither will Canada or Australia everyone else doesn't matter.
They might if USA gets involved idk.