More on the "shuffle of doom" bug that's probably affecting aggression (pics)

[Chiatroll]

One thing that annoys me is that the AI 'never stop shufflin'. Even at peace times, their units will NEVER stop and fortify, no they just have to move every damn turn, all of them, forever. It's basically impossible to play without "Singleplayer Quick Movement" on.

In my experience, this shuffling get much worst in Island/archipelago maps, because during coastal attacks the AI will happily shuffle/embark its units near the coast, leaving those vulnerable transport ships to be sniped by my frigates, one by one. In my last game (large, king, continents) i declared war on Darius, which had no navy, and before i could take a single coastal city, i must have sinked about 20 land units by shooting transports. GGs included. He could had set up his artillery, but decided to embark them instead, for what? I played 7 games of BNW already (@ king), lost 5, the only 2 games i won were continents and archipelago, because having oceans in the map is a huge handicap against the AI.

Seriously. When you have few inside someone else capital every turn every unit moves a couple spaces for no apparent reason. They just can't sit still. I constantly wonder what the shuffling was a shortcut for in the AI scripting.

 

[Chris Hill]

I am in a position with Sweden to my North, and Zulu well to my South, about 13 cells away. Sweden built a city to its North-East, and Zulu built one to his North-West, and still clear of me.

About 50 turns in I located a position for a city, near to Iron. Before I could get to it, Zulu placed, over 4 turns, three cities to my South and East, including the location I had picked. They had completely skipped over jungle and forests and just went through, well North-East of their capital.

Sweden then asked my to join in a war on Zulu, which I accepted after a 10 turn delay. Over about 15 turns I managed to take all three of the Zulu cities - razed one, annexed the one by the Iron and puppeted the other. So far as I can tell, Sweden did nothing. Zulu then made peace with me. 10 turns later Sweden made peace with Zulu, and gave him, as Zulu had asked, the new city he had created to my North-West.

About 30 turns later, Zulu started moving Impis to his new city and my diplomat reported that he was planning on attacking Sweden. I also caught him moving two more settlers to the north, between my capital and a new one I had created before the war, on the basis that I needed two cities. I managed to create two new cities, one on the coast, to completely block his route to the north, although he did get one of the settlers through. The one that got through created a new city to the west of the ex-Sweden city, and one cell in from the coast (why?). The one left behind created a new city as close to my land as he could. Over the next 20-30 turns, he built and moved a large army into the northern area and then just keeps moving them around.

Sweden and I have small armies, and I was waiting for an attack which never happened. I used my Great General to acquire 4 cells from the city he put on the southern edge of me, and I keep refusing to set up an embassy with him.

Russia has moved into my South-East and spreading down towards the Zulu capital. Zulu has denounced Russia and put a warning on me that he has to deal with the two of us. Russia then asked me to join a war on Zulu, which I accepted after a 10 turn delay so I could build up my army. Just before we started, Germany, friends of Zulu, declared war on Russia.

So :

1. Why did Sweden effectively cause a war, while I would have done anyway, and then not join in.
2. Why did Zulu not attack either Sweden or me, when he had a better army.
3. Will Russia actually join in the war against Zulu.

 

[PDMX]

I have seen the exact same thing with the huns, they seemed to try to surround my capitol from two sides, until I bought up the missing tiles between my cities, to annoy him. Than he had two split armies and there was nothing except some extensive shuffling and a final retreat... Seriously thats boring and should be an immediate DoW.

 

[s0nny80y]

I've had another civ dance their mass of troops around my city, and then DoW. Hopefully I don't come across the same bug you stumbled across, but hopefully the Fall patch fixes OP's problem.

 

[cutelilduck]

I hate being the "idea guy" who does nothing useful but say ideas anyone could formulate, but I really hope Firaxis can upgrade the AI combat code. The shuffle is a bug, but I really wish the AI would actively pursue units not garrisoned in cities when they are in proximity of a target city they want.

Keeping ranged units alive on the outskirts of a city is way too easy and just not realistic.

 

[Aristos]

Funny, because I had the exact opposite phenomenon last night... Dido was south of me, we shared lots of trade route gold, no single incident, we were the first friendship in the game... suddenly, I see this massive force appearing from the south, and surrounding the borders of my most southern city... all this pre-turn 100 in Standard.

So I think: "Ok, finally I will be able to see two of the main complaints right now: the 'passive' AI and the "shuffling army'".

Hah! Next turn she declares war, and moves very efficiently into my southern city, completely surrounding it... fierce fighting erupts, and the city is on the brink of falling when my first Landsknechten arrive to the field... city was only saved because I just had finished Tradition before she attacked.

I am more and more convinced that Variance is huge in the expansion. In some way, this is good; there is no way to know how the game will end up unfolding.

This is not to say that there is nothing wrong; there may be balancing issues, or a distorted calculation somewhere that makes strange maneuvers like the ones you are witnessing possible... but it is harder to definitely conclude something if we also see the opposite. Hard to say, really.

 

[Dux1]

One thing I have definitely noticed post-BNW is that intrigue reports are not reliable at all anymore. In fact, they're basically meaningless, because more than half the time "so and so is plotting against so and so" doesn't actually result in anything.

In the last game I played, I had a fully upgraded spy stationed in Beijing as a diplomat. China pretty much hated me all game because we started next to each other and I had been bullying them for a while. So it wasn't very surprising when my spy reported that:

A. China was plotting against me.
B. China had an army marching to launch a sneak attack on my city of Marrakech.

Every single time I saw a message like this in G&K, **** would go down a few turns later without fail. Not so in Brave New World. Nope, all China did was doom shuffle around in my territory for about 15 turns until Open Borders wore off. Then nothing happened.

I really don't know what's going on here, but clearly something is messed up. Why would my spy give a specific report about the AI's intention to attack a particular city if the AI never actually intended to do that? My guess is that China DID intend to attack Marrakech, but something interrupted their plan of attack, and the AI is probably programmed to just forget its plans after X number of turns if they can't get them to work right. What's frustrating is that the AI appears to be extraordinarily particular in BNW about the precise circumstances under which it can proceed with a war plan. It doesn't seem right.

 

[ahawk]

I really don't know what's going on here, but clearly something is messed up. Why would my spy give a specific report about the AI's intention to attack a particular city if the AI never actually intended to do that? My guess is that China DID intend to attack Marrakech, but something interrupted their plan of attack, and the AI is probably programmed to just forget its plans after X number of turns if they can't get them to work right. What's frustrating is that the AI appears to be extraordinarily particular in BNW about the precise circumstances under which it can proceed with a war plan. It doesn't seem right.

Economics now play into the AI war decisions more often than before. In the rambling thread mentioned by the OP, one of the posters quoted the code that the AI uses to determine attacking according to GPT loss from making the DoW. It appears now that an AI will not attack a civ when attacking that civ would drop it to even just moderate negative GPT (due to trade-route loss, GPT deal loss, etc.).

So, part of the issue could be that China intended to attack you, got its forces into position with you, then had something happen that made it impossible to DoW you without dropping into negative GPT. This is all the more likely because, if you were Morocco and had not conquered Marrakech, then your UA gives more GPT for foreign trade-routes than most other civs, meaning you were always a size-able part of their economy to begin with.

What happened exactly, I can't say. Could have been they lost a deal or trade-route with some 3rd party.

But I have one theory:

The AI may sometimes prepare to attack, then build such a big force that the maintenance costs no longer allow them to attack you without going into negative GPT. This might explain why they show intrigue saying they will attack you, and even begin to assemble near you, yet don't DoW: after they have a sufficiently bigger force than yours (another coded feature of DoW decisions) to believe the attack is safe, they no longer have a strong enough economy to attack you and lose your trade and deals with them.

 

[Dux1]

That sounds like a fairly logical explanation, ahawk, but the AI is programmed to be short-sighted if it doesn't recognize the potential long-term benefits of conquest over the short-term loss of some GPT. Then again, the AI doesn't ever really seem to care if you're about to win the game, so I guess long-term isn't really their thing.

 

[Hieschen]

As others have suggested, try just moving that warrior.

Now why would one do that??? I mean OP seems in a bad military spot and expects a DOW but somehow is not unhappy that he isn't.

The way to resolve this is to patch it, I am not at all for crazy warmongering, but here Monty seems to have a strategic goal, a nice and well build army and some kind of bug prevents the DOW.

Solution is not to move our army away, but to get a handle on the bloody bug.

 

[Hieschen]

But I have one theory:

The AI may sometimes prepare to attack, then build such a big force that the maintenance costs no longer allow them to attack you without going into negative GPT. This might explain why they show intrigue saying they will attack you, and even begin to assemble near you, yet don't DoW: after they have a sufficiently bigger force than yours (another coded feature of DoW decisions) to believe the attack is safe, they no longer have a strong enough economy to attack you and lose your trade and deals with them.

If this is true, this should be patched ASAP. As said, I am happy that the crazy scripted attacks went away, but if AI builds up an army to attack you, the DOW should not be prevented by a bug that blocks dow because army can't get into position or because the gpt would go into negative.

 

[kingofsealand]

Honestly i agree with others that this could be a pathing issue especially since the OP mentioned that once he moved a few units monty DOWed BUT his units continued to shuffle. I think when the AI goes to move any unit period, unlike us it looks at its end destination rather than the next tile and tells the unit to go forth regardless of how long it could take to reach the space. In this case it makes sense to me that monty wanted to attack your capital, but his units were on a path to the capital which took them through the mountain pass (being the most direct route) and were therefore unable to do anything but try and get in to the spot you're occupying which would account for their "shuffling". The fact that they did this even after the DOW and fought so poorly further reinforces this theory they were obviously trying to move all their units to one target location which was blocked in some way. I also agree that this should be patched but I think the issue is the pathing not the AI's behavior

 

[Bino]

Just adding my 2c even though they matter little, it has been my last few games are like the opposite, Dido and Attila attacking me, while i was in favorable defensive position, with half arsed attempts that led them accepting peace like 5 to 8 turns later with no added concessionjs from me. Sure i also had Russia do something like that shuffle against me, when i was too in a better defensive position, but there Russia wisely gobbled up a couple of other civs...

So what i mean to say is that that may be a bug, but AI is also capable of doing well or do the opposite mistake lol.

 

[Gori the Grey]

Now why would one do that??? I mean OP seems in a bad military spot and expects a DOW but somehow is not unhappy that he isn't.

The way to resolve this is to patch it, I am not at all for crazy warmongering, but here Monty seems to have a strategic goal, a nice and well build army and some kind of bug prevents the DOW.

Solution is not to move our army away, but to get a handle on the bloody bug.

Oh, I agree, the shuffle of non-doom should be fixed, but the OP also just seemed curious as to why it was happening. I suggested moving the single warrior just to satisfy that curiosity, not as a game strategy.

 

[Ravellion]

The only other thing I can think of is he wanted to go straight for my capital (southeast of the picture just a hex) but since I have a unit parked in the mountain pass he can't seem to figure out how to go through the wide open field just to the north. I dunno for certain.

I think this is the case. All his melee is in the direction of your capital, all his ranged units behind the melee (if you look at it from the direction of your capital).

 

[BroOfTheSun]

So I've seen the "shuffling bug" a couple of times now. The first time, I was playing as the Shoshone, and the Japanese sent an army to one of my cities, that was located at a choke point on the map. They had an army of pikes, xbows, and a few knights. I only had 2 gatling guns protecting the city (main army was fighting somewhere else). When they declared war, their units just sat outside my borders, and outside city bombardment range. Basically, they were walling me in. I could not move up with my gatling guns, as they would most likely have died. The could also not move up to my city, because their army would suicide due to my defensive positions. So not sure if this is a bug, or good AI in not suiciding their army.

Second time I saw "shuffling bug", playing as Rome with Greece to my south. They declare war early, and bring a huge army of hoplites and CBs (much larger than the defensive army I had of spears and CBs). For 2 turns, they sat outside my borders and shuffled a little. Then, they moved it and promptly took my capital. Not sure what to say of this. Maybe repositioning troops? Maybe shuffle bug? It didn't stop them from killing me in the end.

 

[ThorRex]

I have seen this from the Huns who passed through my land to position. The Huns finally attacked after about 20 turns with 10 to 12 units. By then I had built enough composite bows to win easily. He is going to pay big to settle. He certainly looked confused.

 

[dexters]

Noticed this as well, but AI did declare war. They were just travelling in a large swarm for several turns. I was sure they are about to DoW me or my neighbour. They Dow my neighbour.

 

[RedFuneral]

I have the same thing happening in my current game, though I haven't seen any lack of wars in my previous games.

Current game is deity level duel(my first time on deity so I'm far behind on everything.) The AI is Attila(joy...) He has 4x the army of me, 2x the techs, etc. My spy reported he was planning a sneak attack on me and he obviously has been. My capital(island map) is surrounded by boats(that barbs have been slowly destroying) and he lands a few rams on my island each turn, only to re-embark them the next. He's also allies with all 4 CSs on the map, and he just denounced me(what other leaders?). I've been provoking him but he's only interested in trading and shuffling his troops around blocking off my ports.

Also very strange, he's half way through Ren era but is surrounding me with Triremes and rams.

 

[Vidszhite]

I've had the AI do this when I blocked off a choke point with a scout. Ai was trying to get into a perfect position then DoW but it couldn't due to the scout. Eventually they DoW.

Yup. I've seen it too. They send a huge army and most do eventually DoW you, but sometimes it takes so long to get in position that they give up. Genghis even did this and then asked for open borders when he realized he couldn't reach my capital.

Didn't stop him though. I said no, he DoWed 5 turns later, and flattened me. I built xbows as fast as I could, but he just had too many longswords and keshiks.