My thoughts on Iran

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Ever so often I feel that I don't really commit too much to debate about certain subjects. Generally I do this purposely as I am easily amused, if that makes sense. What I am contributing here is a compilation of my own second-year University education and various authors information on Iran.

We should all consider an invasion of Iran by the Western world as an inevitablity. The inclusion of Iran to complete the "axis of evil" triad leaves President George Bush particularly responsbile for the war which will occur; this set in motion slightly over four years ago. This responsbility exists regardless of whether Bush's actions in the coming weeks and months are right or wrong. The invasion of Iran will probably not be described nor labeled as a war by the American administration and its willing counter-parts, which should cause some concern for those living in those participating countries. But I digress, because an erosion of liberties on behalf of those living especially in the United States does not appear of concern.

In hopes of stymieing the "anti-Bush" rhetoric that will come in replies to this thread, I do not differentiate between America's Democrats and Republicans. I have a firm belief either party would entertain war with Iran. Furthermore, I find that both are right of the political spectrum. I am not going to debate internal American politics.

You should understand the importance of securing Iran, which will not be to stop terrorism. Iran is a major blank spot for continued American dominance in this region as well as for Irsaeli security. Iran is the second stage of preemptive action: If invading Iraq because it could possibly have nuclear weapons was the first, I am sure you can understand Iran's case.

The West is poised to make war on a country whom hasn't even constructed nuclear weapons yet. This is serious flawed newage policy - If you have nuclear weapons you are not invaded, if you don't you are invaded.

The Nuclear Factor

One should note that an actual land invasion of Iran is highly unlikely. Major air assaults, even more powerful "daisy cutters" "bunker busters", and the possibility of tactical nuclear weapons are likely options.

Nuclear weapons? The Bush administration has adopted new policies on its use of nuclear weapons which it considers "safe for the surrounding population". Nuclear weapons are no longer for self defence, especially in the case of Iran.

The plan includes a large-scale air assault on Iran employing both conventional and tactical nuclear weapons. Within Iran there are more than 450 major strategic targets, including numerous suspected nuclear-weapons-program development sites. Many of the targets are hardened or are deep underground and could not be taken out by conventional weapons, hence the nuclear option. As in the case of Iraq, the response is not conditional on Iran actually being involved in the act of terrorism directed against the United States. Several senior Air Force officers involved in the planning are reportedly appalled at the implications of what they are doing—that Iran is being set up for an unprovoked nuclear attack—but no one is prepared to damage his career by posing any objections. (Philip Giraldi, Attack on Iran: Pre-emptive Nuclear War , The American Conservative, 2 August 2005)

It is not Iran which is a threat to global security but the United States of America and Israel.

In recent developments, Western European governments --including the so-called "non-nuclear states" which possess nuclear weapons-- have joined the bandwagon. In chorus, Western Europe and the member states of the Atlantic alliance (NATO) have endorsed the US-led military initiative against Iran.

The Pentagon's planned aerial attacks on Iran involve "scenarios" using both nuclear and conventional weapons. While this does not imply the use of nuclear weapons, the potential danger of a Middle East nuclear holocaust must, nonetheless, be taken seriously. It must become a focal point of the antiwar movement, particularly in the United States, Western Europe, Israel and Turkey.

It should also be understood that China and Russia are (unofficially) allies of Iran, supplying them with advanced military equipment and a sophisticated missile defense system. It is unlikely that China and Russia will take on a passive position if and when the aerial bombardments are carried out.

The new preemptive nuclear doctrine calls for the "integration" of "defensive" and "offensive" operations. Moreover, the important distinction between conventional and nuclear weapons has been blurred..

From a military standpoint, the US and its coalition partners including Israel and Turkey are in "a state of readiness."

Through media disinformation, the objective is to galvanize Western public opinion in support of a US-led war on Iran in retaliation for Iran's defiance of the international community.

War propaganda consists in "fabricating an enemy" while conveying the illusion that the Western World is under attack by Islamic terrorists, who are directly supported by the Tehran government.

"Make the World safer", "prevent the proliferation of dirty nuclear devices by terrorists", "implement punitive actions against Iran to ensure the peace". "Combat nuclear proliferation by rogue states"...

Supported by the Western media, a generalized atmosphere of racism and xenophobia directed against Muslims has unfolded, particularly in Western Europe, which provides a fake legitimacy to the US war agenda. The latter is upheld as a "Just War". The "Just war" theory serves to camouflage the nature of US war plans, while providing a human face to the invaders.


http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=20060222&articleId=2032

I have a strong conviction that Iran is going to be the "big mistake" on the part of the West. Particularly because of Russia and China, which I have not discussed but you probably get the picture. I am particularly concerned because I live across the river from Detroit, which is a prime target for nuclear weapons. I believe this is different than the Cold War and I often wonder why America is even bothering with the security council, they ignored it when they went into Iraq. How far can the West push the envelope before something big happens back in our safe haven, seperated by two oceans. I am not sure, but I think Iran will be the limit.
 
When I was a kid, many of my fellow grade-school students (and many of the parents) figured a war between the U.S. and the Soviet Union was inevitable. It was a question of when The Bomb was going to drop, not if.

After Panama was liberated and Manuel Noriega was in prison, lots of people were crowing that Castro would be the next dictator to fall.

After Saddam invaded Kuwait, the U.S. response caught me with my shorts down. Well, actually with my shorts OFF. :eek:

September 10, 2001 was a warm and breezy day, and I felt good about the world.

And Iraq War #2 caught me as completely by surprise as the first one did.


Assume very little about how history is going to play out.
 
BasketCase said:
After Panama was liberated and Manuel Noriega was in prison, lots of people were crowing that Castro would be the next dictator to fall.

Manuel Noriega was on CIA payroll until he basically decided to stop taking orders from Washington, which led to the invasion. Don't use the word "liberated" as it doesn't apply.
 
I disagree with your analysis (especially about the US being the threat; I think it is the solution). I strongly suspect the US will not go to war with Iran, even if they tested a nuclear weapon tomorrow. I think other methods can and will be effective. However, BasketCase has a good point and you could be right. On 11 Sep 01 I was looking forward (with my partner) to defending our title as undefeated Spades Champions of Camp Doha, Kuwait. For obvious reasons we didn't get to play that night, or any other night for the rest of my tour.
 
I really doubt it will happen. Bush isn't as self-absorbed as people think. He's got two years left on his presidency and he knows how sketchy Iraq is turning out.

Although the area of War Powers in the Constitution has gotten a little hazy in modern times, Congress still normally passes something along the lines of "go get 'em, you have our support." There were resolutions/legislation passed prior to the Afghanistan and Iraq wars. While it's possible he could just order the military in without consulting Congress that would be very very very very very unlikely. Moreover, if the Republicans lose ground in the mid term elections, his position is even more dubious.

He can't just base an invasion on empty platitudes like keeping the world safe for democracy and fighting terrorists, especially after the whole hide and go seek WMD thing in Iraq. He's going to need solid evidence because he's going to be highly scrutinzed.

I know a lot of people just don't like George Bush and he's far from being a "great" president. However, he isn't the bane of all existance. The sun WILL come out tommorow, Annie. He will not blow up the world. In two years, he'll be gone, and if one of the likely Republican candidates wins the election then (Giuliani/Frist/Allen) will be the new machiavellian sadist du jour. Of course if the Democrats win then (Clinton/Kerry/Dean) will be the greatest thing since sliced bread and/or John F. Kennedy.
 
Brian_B said:
I really doubt it will happen. Bush isn't as self-absorbed as people think. He's got two years left on his presidency and he knows how sketchy Iraq is turning out.

Although the area of War Powers in the Constitution has gotten a little hazy in modern times, Congress still normally passes something along the lines of "go get 'em, you have our support." There were resolutions/legislation passed prior to the Afghanistan and Iraq wars. While it's possible he could just order the military in without consulting Congress that would be very very very very very unlikely. Moreover, if the Republicans lose ground in the mid term elections, his position is even more dubious.

He can't just base an invasion on empty platitudes like keeping the world safe for democracy and fighting terrorists, especially after the whole hide and go seek WMD thing in Iraq. He's going to need solid evidence because he's going to be highly scrutinzed.

I know a lot of people just don't like George Bush and he's far from being a "great" president. However, he isn't the bane of all existance. The sun WILL come out tommorow, Annie. He will not blow up the world. In two years, he'll be gone, and if one of the likely Republican candidates wins the election then (Giuliani/Frist/Allen) will be the new machiavellian sadist du jour. Of course if the Democrats win then (Clinton/Kerry/Dean) will be the greatest thing since sliced bread and/or John F. Kennedy.


BB, thanks for saving me some typing.
 
Anyone who thinks the US is going to launch a nuclear attack on Iran is insane. There's no way.
 
Alpine Trooper said:
The inclusion of Iran to complete the "axis of evil" triad leaves President George Bush particularly responsbile for the war which will occur;

Iran's interest in acquiring nuclear weapons has gone on for many years, not just prompted a single speech made by the U.S. President.

I find it entirely typical that certain people will blame George Bush for the Iranian problem when Iran has been the world's leading sponsor of terrorism for the past 20 years and their nuclear and missile programs have been around a lot longer than any U.S. administration has.

When in doubt, blame America.
 
rmsharpe said:
Iran's interest in acquiring nuclear weapons has gone on for many years, not just prompted a single speech made by the U.S. President.

I find it entirely typical that certain people will blame George Bush for the Iranian problem when Iran has been the world's leading sponsor of terrorism for the past 20 years and their nuclear and missile programs have been around a lot longer than any U.S. administration has.

When in doubt, blame America.

Well I really fail to see who, besides Bush, will be to blame. I definately do not want Iran to have nuclear weapons. I definately don't want an invasion of Iran.

And there are other ways.
 
Sad but true Bush is no doubt going to push for an invasion of Iran. This could be for Bush the straw that breaks the camel's back, so to speak, but unfortunately I doubt anyone has the fortitude to break down this regime before thousands of more lives are lost unnecessarily.
 
rmsharpe said:
The Iranians? :crazyeye:
For daring to defend their own country?:confused:
 
I really hope another war isnt started, but trying to predict a war is useless. Like basketcase said, history is way too unpredictable.
 
Democrats and Republicans are both entertaining ideas of attacking Iran? A "nuclear holocaust" in the Middle East? Russia and China not acting "passively" in response to an attack? :rolleyes:

Get real.
 
So Bush should do some saber rattling at Iran. Too bad he wasted the military in the Iraqi debacle, so there's no sabers to rattle.
 
Iran is an issue to take very seriously, and this mainly because its leaders don't always behave rationally.

Here's the thing. Globally, the west has promised everything to convince Iran to get rid of its nuclear project: normalization of the diplomacy, involvement in negociations about Iraq, normalization of oil trades, the return of Iran as a major regional power and so on and so forth. Globally, things worked well with Ali Khamenei. He was ready to discuss with the European coalition made of France, Germany and the UK. But all of a sudden, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been elected at the head of Iran.

Ahmadinejad refused all propositions from Western powers, even those you cannot refuse. Ahmadinejad considers the bomb as being more important than the normalization of Iran's diplomacy. Where it goes totally scary is when the guy, who is currently enriching uranium, talk about the destruction of Israel at each of the international summit he's part of. And that goes really frightening when he describes Israel's destruction as unavoidable.

I thought in the beginning that Iran only wanted the nuke to guarantee it couldn't be invaded, to increase the independence of the country, but knowing what Ahmadinejad has refused to devellop his bomb, we can wonder how irrational that guy could be. We shouldn't forget that the guy has recently told to Bush on telephone that his only chance for salvation was to convert to Islam.

The question is : Why is Iran free to behave the way it does ? Mainly thanks to China, which is one of the main economical partner of the country. China needs oil and don't hesitate to import it from Iran. As a result, an embargo on Iran is simply impossible since China wouldn't respect it. Furthermore, Iran controls the straight of Hormuz, which is the gate to the Gulf. All this to say that Iran has good elements on its side.

We're here in a situation which would have been unimaginable 20 years ago : The United States, the European Union, Russia, Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan... all those countries are against Iran, but Iran isn't totally isolated thanks to China. In exagerating a bit, the situation is almost similar as the one of North Korea, a country which still survives thanks to its direct dependency on China, despite having all other major powers against him.

This is a very serious issue, and there is no easy solution in this case. This has absolutely nothing to do with what happened in Iraq. Iraq was a neutralized country, Iran is a lot more powerful and unpredictable.
 
Marla_Singer said:
We shouldn't forget that the guy has recently told to Bush on telephone that his only chance for salvation was to convert to Islam.

You mean the same way Christians tell us that we must accept Jesus Christ as our personal savior? At least one of these men is being honest with us.
 
BasketCase said:
The citizens were dancing in the streets. Counts by me.

It's ironic how you can liberate people from something you made in the first place.
 
So, removing him was a bad thing then?

If his presence on the throne was a bad thing, then deposing him was a good thing. How he got there has nothing to do with it.
 
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