SGOTM 08 - XTeam

[Frederiksberg]

I am curious why we would put off Medicine if the Great Merchant doesn't show at X-ville. The reason I ask is that Sid's Sushi requires a Great Merchant and Medicine. That means we get two for the price of one tech? (Sid's Sushi and Red Cross, even though it is very expensive in hammers due to required Hospitals) If the Great Merchant doesn't show at X-ville, doesn't it make sense to drop Refrigeration?

The reason is that if we don't end the game researching Refrig we will most likely end by researching Corporation and that means that we have to spend additional turns building Wall Street before the game ends (as opposed to Cereal Mills that can be founded immediately). Thus our score decreases due to these additional turns. Actually, if we get a GE we could skip Refrig because WStreet would also be done immediately in that scenario. So we can add GE to the GP type that will prompt us to research Medicine.

 

[Frederiksberg]

I don't like giving up towns or workshops in X-ville. If we use Marbleville's fish and hire 4 merchants, we get the GP in 14 turns. If we just commit to Medicine for the two guaranteed wonders, we can decide on Refrig at the end when we know what GP we get.

Getting the GP in 11 doesn't involve giving up any towns or work shops only mines. And since we have enough hammers in other cities I think it's OK to give up 250 hammers in order to get this crucial information ASAP. Skipping Refrig without having a GE for the last Wonder is not optimal as I argued in my previous post.

We should at least consider grabbing DR after Banking, especially if Augustus is saving his GE. If he's saving his GE for Versailles, gifting him DR should get Versailles built in 1 turn.

My reasoning is that since we anyway have the hammers to build Versailles we are only gaining anything substantial if we can avoid researching DR. So postponing DR is in the hope that Gandhi or Augustus build the Versailles before we have spent beakers on DR. I contemplated gifting Augustus a tech that he could trade to Gandhi in return for DR but I think it can easily backfire if he trades for Nationalism instead and uses the GE to bulb Constitution.

The other concern about this tech order is getting beat to Econ. If any of the AI get Education, I think we should go straight for Econ. Boudica already has Guilds-Banking and I don't know if she would trade them to someone.

We can probably move Econ up and research it after Democracy. It will give us less time to build the National Park, but since this is a cheap Wonder it looks doable to me - will try to modify the builds accordingly.

I think we should try to stay flexible on when the victory votes come. If we build UN to within one turn of completion and then decide when we want to win, we can complete UN to use the first resolution for victory. If we get a Prophet or Engineer from X-ville, we'll want a slightly earlier victory.

One of the points of rushing the GP in X-ville is to gain this flexibility. We get the GP in 11 turns and the UN completes in 12 turns in Horseville so we will be able to queue swap the UN there and complete it when we see fit. This means that we can handle both a fast victory in 12+6=18 turns and a slower victory.

After the current Cuir is sent east, suggest at least 1 cannon to head west, maybe 2. Then Cuirs until they're no longer needed. Then settlers and/or workboats (WBs get Heroic Epic bonus and overflow beaucoup gold).

This sounds like a good plan. We may be forced to build a Hospital here but let's see if it can be avoided.

We can build workshops over the final farm and the rice and speed things up a bit.

Yes, let's keep that in mind. Whipping Ulundi will also work.

Those 3 builds take 24 turns. We might want earlier victory. Suggest building WS in X-ville or elsewhere.

X-ville can build one more National Wonder, either WS or RC. Hopefully it wont need to build Versailles, but if it does, it should do it soon

The idea was to use the whip if an early victory is required. Moving to X-ville is better and that was also in my first draft but I had the wrong impression that the Palace counted as a National Wonder and thus prevented us from building any more of them in X-ville (We also have Oxford) so I changed it .

Before chopping fur forest, you can build workshops over the grass farm and sheep.

Yes, this is an option. I think Furville's schedule is OK, I don't expect that we can win faster than in 18 turns. The principle of postponing chopping in favor of improving tiles sounds right.

Oporto should probably build a missionary for Lisbon or Guimaraes. If we could build a Bank somewhere else (Pigville?), Oporto could make use of WP and build a couple units.

Another missionary here for Lisbon or Guimaraes?

And then settlers for Blessed Seas?

I will try to work these suggestions into the build plan.

 

[Frederiksberg]

Deleted double post - My keyboard fell off the desk...

As long as the Probability of a Great Merchant isn't 100%, there is always uncertainty. I have to ask if this is worth the risk of slowing unit or wonder builds?

The idea is to remove the uncertainty ASAP so that we can freeze the plan. The sacrificed hammers (~250) don't seem to be a problem. My arguments are in the previous post.

I really like SCT's suggestion that we built UN to within a turn and then build something else until we're ready for victory and have our required wonders built, keeping in mind the quote at the top of this post.

This is already in the plan as explained above. And it actually requires that we know the GP type early so that we know when we are done researching.

 

[Frederiksberg]

If we don't get DR earlier, then Gandhi may complete wonder after he capitulates, even if Augustus doesn't save his GE.

This is a matter of concern. When did Gandhi get DR?. If we take away his most productive cities he may not be able to finish Versailles before we do anyway...

Concur that flexibility on finish date is highly desirable.

This is already covered in the current plan as I explained in my answer to SCT.

Getting settlers built in time to get them to islands would certainly be facilitated by using the whip immediately after our GP arrives.

The sooner we know the GP type the sooner we know if we are in a hurry to build settlers.

 

[leif erikson]

The idea is to remove the uncertainty ASAP so that we can freeze the plan. The sacrificed hammers (~250) don't seem to be a problem. My arguments are in the previous post.

This is already in the plan as explained above. And it actually requires that we know the GP type early so that we know when we are done researching.

The sooner we know the GP type the sooner we know if we are in a hurry to build settlers.

OK, thanks for the explanation. The only GP coming out of X-ville that would be harmful to us would be a Great Scientist...

This is a matter of concern. When did Gandhi get DR?. If we take away his most productive cities he may not be able to finish Versailles before we do anyway...

Just checked the game log and Islam was founded in 1040 AD, that is quite a while ago. It was turn 164, 31 turns ago!
Wish we could have a look at his builds...

 

[ShannonCT]

The reason is that if we don't end the game researching Refrig we will most likely end by researching Corporation and that means that we have to spend additional turns building Wall Street before the game ends (as opposed to Cereal Mills that can be founded immediately). Thus our score decreases due to these additional turns. Actually, if we get a GE we could skip Refrig because WStreet would also be done immediately in that scenario. So we can add GE to the GP type that will prompt us to research Medicine.

If we don't get a GM from X-ville, we'll turn off research after Corp and save up money to cash-rush wonders. We can use the cash to rush either Red Cross or Wall Street and whip the other. X-ville whips pop into these wonders at the rate of 55 hammers per 1 pop. So it can whip either of these wonders after maybe 3 turns of production. (Instead of building settlers in X-ville, it might be better to try to get it to Pop18.) If we do get a GM from X-ville, we'll spend another 5-6 turns researching Refrig and we'll need to whip both WS and RC. Either way E(t)/t decreases a bit in the final 5-6 turns. It takes time to close the build gap.

My reasoning is that since we anyway have the hammers to build Versailles we are only gaining anything substantial if we can avoid researching DR. So postponing DR is in the hope that Gandhi or Augustus build the Versailles before we have spent beakers on DR. I contemplated gifting Augustus a tech that he could trade to Gandhi in return for DR but I think it can easily backfire if he trades for Nationalism instead and uses the GE to bulb Constitution.

I think we need to leave X-ville free to build either WS or RC at the end, so slotting Versailles there doesn't look too good. DR only takes one turn after Banking. If we can eliminate the risk of Gandhi building it after capitulation, and eliminate the need to build it ourselves, I think it's worth spending a turn of research. Gandhi isn't going to be building Versailles in Delhi, and probably not Vijay either. The cities where he's most likely to build it are the cities we are least likely to capture.

 

[leif erikson]

I think we need to leave X-ville free to build either WS or RC at the end, so slotting Versailles there doesn't look too good. DR only takes one turn after Banking. If we can eliminate the risk of Gandhi building it after capitulation, and eliminate the need to build it ourselves, I think it's worth spending a turn of research. Gandhi isn't going to be building Versailles in Delhi, and probably not Vijay either. The cities where he's most likely to build it are the cities we are least likely to capture.

This worries me as Gandhi has had 31 turns with Divine Right thus far, Versailles could be turns away in one of his other cities. Would it be worth trying to check any of his cities that we do not plan to take with a Spy? I suppose ti will require too much time at this point? Any options?

 

[ShannonCT]

Getting the GP in 11 doesn't involve giving up any towns or work shops only mines. And since we have enough hammers in other cities I think it's OK to give up 250 hammers in order to get this crucial information ASAP. Skipping Refrig without having a GE for the last Wonder is not optimal as I argued in my previous post.

What about getting the GP in 12 turns? If we hire a 4th merchant now and a 5th next turn, we only have to give up 1 mine for 11 turns. We can get a quick bank in X-ville and then do Versailles or settlers.

This worries me as Gandhi has had 31 turns with Divine Right thus far, Versailles could be turns away in one of his other cities. Would it be worth trying to check any of his cities that we do not plan to take with a Spy? I suppose ti will require too much time at this point? Any options?

Capture all of his major cities OR
Spend commerce on espionage OR
Research DR ourselves, gift it to Augustus, and start building Versailles in X-ville

 

[Frederiksberg]

If we don't get a GM from X-ville, we'll turn off research after Corp and save up money to cash-rush wonders. We can use the cash to rush either Red Cross or Wall Street and whip the other. X-ville whips pop into these wonders at the rate of 55 hammers per 1 pop. So it can whip either of these wonders after maybe 3 turns of production. (Instead of building settlers in X-ville, it might be better to try to get it to Pop18.) If we do get a GM from X-ville, we'll spend another 5-6 turns researching Refrig and we'll need to whip both WS and RC. Either way E(t)/t decreases a bit in the final 5-6 turns. It takes time to close the build gap.

I think you are right in saying that researching Medicine vs researching Refrigeration will give about the same final score. It seems clear to me that the Medicine path requires significantly more hammers due to the hospitals and Red Cross and it is thus more complex to implement and may mean that we create problems with finding a suitable build order in our cities. For this reason I prefer the simpler Refrigeration path in the case where we don't get a GM (in which case we research both techs) or a GE (in which case Medicine only is preferable).

I think we need to leave X-ville free to build either WS or RC at the end, so slotting Versailles there doesn't look too good. DR only takes one turn after Banking. If we can eliminate the risk of Gandhi building it after capitulation, and eliminate the need to build it ourselves, I think it's worth spending a turn of research. Gandhi isn't going to be building Versailles in Delhi, and probably not Vijay either. The cities where he's most likely to build it are the cities we are least likely to capture.

DR appears cheaper than it is because of the big overflow from Banking. I do share the concern about Versailles being built and what I'm hearing from all of your responses is that we should research DR now rather than wait for the small chance that Versailles is built within the next 10 turns or so. Giving it away sounds appealing but I guess we should start building it anyway if Augustus doesn't immediately build it with the GE.

What about getting the GP in 12 turns? If we hire a 4th merchant now and a 5th next turn, we only have to give up 1 mine for 11 turns. We can get a quick bank in X-ville and then do Versailles or settlers.

Since we are probably going to include DR in the tech path I think we won't finish in 18 turns anyway so this compromise sounds good. It means that we queue swap a bit in Horseville to postpone UN at least until we know the type of the GP.

I have some concerns about our tech speed also. The 5 towns around X-ville are supplying a little more than 10% of our beakers. If it's possible to get our Wonders built without converting these towns to work shops that sounds like a better solution to me. 10% is roughly 2 turns in the time we have left of the game. I propose that we either don't convert them at all or wait until we know if it's absolutely needed to have more hammers. My feeling is that we can find a way to build the stuff we need without these extra hammers.

 

[Cactus Pete]

I see I've been inconspicuous in my absence. Most of the issues have been worked out.

Is it possible/reasonable to use of spy(s) and/or our accumulated espionage points to find out where Gandhi is building Versailles (presuming he is) and/or whether he's researching Economics?

BTW, Santa may be lurking as: SC25, Milk & Cookies, Reindeer Man, Chimney Sweep, Genghis Claus, or . . .?

 

[ShannonCT]

I have some concerns about our tech speed also. The 5 towns around X-ville are supplying a little more than 10% of our beakers. If it's possible to get our Wonders built without converting these towns to work shops that sounds like a better solution to me. 10% is roughly 2 turns in the time we have left of the game. I propose that we either don't convert them at all or wait until we know if it's absolutely needed to have more hammers. My feeling is that we can find a way to build the stuff we need without these extra hammers.

Yes, if we aren't building the UN in X-ville, there isn't a pressing need for a lot of hammers there yet.

Is it possible/reasonable to use of spy(s) and/or our accumulated espionage points to find out where Gandhi is building Versailles (presuming he is) and/or whether he's researching Economics?

We could set espionage to 40% for 1 turn and see inside all of Gandhi's cities. Investigating cities doesn't require a spy, because it's a passive mission.

The commerce spent on espionage would result in a loss of ~580 beakers, but if it means not having to research DR, it would be worth it.

Gandhi is researching Astro right now and so he can't be too close to Education (which is a prereq for Econ). Gandhi should be conquered before getting Education and will lose most of his commerce. Augustus and Pericles are the two we have to worry about getting Education. Boudica wouldn't trade Guilds/Banking to Augustus, but maybe to Pericles. Overall, the AI seems pretty far away from Econ, but let's keep an eye out.

 

[Cactus Pete]

"We could set espionage to 40% for 1 turn and see inside all of Gandhi's cities. Investigating cities doesn't require a spy, because it's a passive mission."

If we do this, would we still be able to use the spy(s) to pillage critical strategic resource before attacking?

 

[leif erikson]

"We could set espionage to 40% for 1 turn and see inside all of Gandhi's cities. Investigating cities doesn't require a spy, because it's a passive mission."

If we do this, would we still be able to use the spy(s) to pillage critical strategic resource before attacking?

I believe so because passive missions do not require the expenditure of EP's.

 

[Frederiksberg]

A last minute update with only 6 hours of 2008 left...

Assumption:
X-ville is MM'ed to get the GP in 12 turns according to SCT's proposal. Tech times mentioned below may be slightly higher than what we can achieve when we keep the towns around X-ville.

Revised tech path (22 or 28 turns):

Banking (1) -- DR(1) -- Constitution (3) -- Democracy (3) -- Economics (2) -- Biology (5) -- if GM or GE in X-ville Medicine (6) -- Corporation (2) -- if no GE from X-ville Refrigeration (5)

It's unclear if we can postpone Economics to after Medicine - this is something for discussion when we reach Democracy.

The associated builds:

This build plan is for the case where we skip Medicine - a revised build plan should be done when we know the GP type. Now that we wait with work shops in X-ville I have kept WStreet in Horseville since it can be whipped. The same goes for Hollywood and it won't even hurt the Diplo VC vote because we can whip after the vote and still have the Wonders built in time. Number of settlers needed is unknown - 5 settlers in current plan and we may need 6 if no island cities are captured or negotiated in peace deal. Not everything is planned and not all cities are mentioned. I suggest that captured cities only build military units. In the last few turns our homeland cities can build wealth.

Ivoryville (117 hpt) Cannon (1), Cannon(1), Cuirassier(1), Cuirasier(1),....,Settler(2), Workboat(1)+gold from overflow,.....

Ulundi (107 hpt - 140 with IW) IW (5), Versailles (3), Rock'n'Roll (6), Hollywood (9)

Horseville (83 hpt) UN (12), Bank(3), Wall Street(9)

Furville (75 hpt) Cristo Redentor (7 w. chops), The Statue of Liberty (11)

Oporto (54 hpt soon 63 hpt) Missionary(1),West Point (5), Cuirassier(2), Cuirassier(2), Cuirassier(1),

Lisbon (MM to 51 hpt - 60 hpt with Confu) Cuirassier(2), Cuirassier(2), Broadway (10), National Park (5)

X-ville (37 hpt - 77 hpt w. wshops) Cannon(1), Cuirassier(3), Cuirassier (3), Settler (3), Bank (6)

Braga (49 hpt) Cannon(3), Cuirassier(2), Bank(5), The Eiffel Tower (6)

Jute (43 hpt) Cuirassier (1), Cuirassier (3), Bank(4)

Guimares (40 hpt) Bank(5), The Kremlin (10)

Stoneville (MM to 26 hpt) Frigate (1), Bank (8), Settler(4), Settler(4)

Canalville (21 hpt soon 26 hpt) Bank(8), Globe (9), Settler(4)

Coimbra (18 hpt) Missionary(3), FP (9)

Pigville (16 hpt) Bank (13)

Other additions to the plan:

- Keep the towns around X-ville.
- Keep building work shops in other cities - in some cases even on food resources if enough food is there.
- Gift DR to Augustus.

 

[Frederiksberg]

We could set espionage to 40% for 1 turn and see inside all of Gandhi's cities. Investigating cities doesn't require a spy, because it's a passive mission.

It's a tempting idea. I'm a little unsure if the benefit of knowing Gandhi's builds justifies the cost. If he is building Versailles and it will take him a long time to finish it I suppose nothing changes and we have to research DR anyway? Or is it likely that we can trade for DR within the next say 10 turns?

 

[ShannonCT]

It's a tempting idea. I'm a little unsure if the benefit of knowing Gandhi's builds justifies the cost. If he is building Versailles and it will take him a long time to finish it I suppose nothing changes and we have to research DR anyway? Or is it likely that we can trade for DR within the next say 10 turns?

Putting commerce into espionage is a gamble. But so is researching DR ourselves. Guessing wrong only sets us back 1 turn, so it doesn't make a lot of difference.

One thing we can do with the extra EPs against Gandhi is to support revolt in Vijay so our Cuirs take less damage and can go capture Gandhi's island city faster. We have a spy near Vijay that could go there next turn and start getting the stationary spy discount. We have a second spy that could go to Gandhi's ivory or iron and get ready to pillage. (Gandhi will lose his iron on the second turn of the war if we capture Vijay and Delhi as planned.)

 

[leif erikson]

It's a tempting idea. I'm a little unsure if the benefit of knowing Gandhi's builds justifies the cost. If he is building Versailles and it will take him a long time to finish it I suppose nothing changes and we have to research DR anyway? Or is it likely that we can trade for DR within the next say 10 turns?

If we should find out that Versailles is nearly completed, we could allow it to finish before taking the city and gain the lost turn in not researching DR?

There's a lot to think about in these final few turnsets, so I'll start with one piece that seems fairly easy to deal with: the war against India.

I suggest we target 4 cities initially: Hun, Delhi, Bombay, and Vijay.

We have a ship with 2 cannons and a Cuir heading toward Hun now. We need to add a couple Cuirs to that force since cannons can't kill anything. We can either move units by land through Greece, or send the next shipload from the mainland that way.

For the other 3 cities, we should have 3 separate forces.

As soon as Charlemagne capitulates, we can move our 5 healthiest Cuirs to Cumae. Those five Cuirs can do a quick strike against Vijay on the first turn of the war. At last check, Vijay had 4 defenders.

We currently have 7 Cuirs in galleons heading toward Delhi. We can supplement that with 2 cannons from Nuremburg. We can move them thorugh India this turn and pick them up somewhere with the empty galleon that is currently near Tolosa. When we declare war, a force of 7 Cuirs and 2 cannons can land on the hill SW of Delhi. This will block Gandhi from immediately reinforcing Delhi from Pataliputra. We'll have at least 4 frigates bombing Delhi for 2 turns, and we can attack on the second turn of war.

Our remaining cannons and Cuirs can attack Bombay. After capitulation by Charlemagne, all units not needed for Vijay can proceed to Nuremburg to heal. Since there will be cannons in this force, this will be the slowest stack, and so healthy Cuirs can escort the cannons while wounded ones can heal for one more turn.

We can base 3 airships each in Pisa, Ravenna, and Cumae. On turn 1 of the war, airships from Ravenna and Cumae can hit Vijay. On turn 2, airships from Ravenna and Pisa can hit Delhi, while Cumae's airships rebase to Nuremburg. On turn 3, all 9 airships can hit Bombay.

I think we should try to get India's 2 island cities (for Blessed Seas) before or with capitulation. If India wont give us both for free, survivors from Vijay or Delhi can board a ship and take Calcutta.

Tolosa might need 1 extra Cuir to defend against a possible attack from Varanasi.

Once we can get Charlie to capitulate, this seems like a good way to go to me.

The screenie is located in in this post.

 

[Frederiksberg]

If we should find out that Versailles is nearly completed, we could allow it to finish before taking the city and gain the lost turn in not researching DR?

Yes, this seems to be the only scenario where we stand to gain and that's exactly my point. When we spend 40% of our commerce on espionage to buy this information we are basically betting half a turn and we stand to gain about 1.5 turns i.e. we are taking odds of 3:1 that Gandhi is actually building the Versailles and is fairly close to finishing it. If the probabilities does not favor this bet we loose and otherwise we win. So what are the odds? Is the probability that Gandhi is close to having Versailles built 75% or higher?

One thing we can do with the extra EPs against Gandhi is to support revolt in Vijay so our Cuirs take less damage and can go capture Gandhi's island city faster. We have a spy near Vijay that could go there next turn and start getting the stationary spy discount. We have a second spy that could go to Gandhi's ivory or iron and get ready to pillage. (Gandhi will lose his iron on the second turn of the war if we capture Vijay and Delhi as planned.)

Is this an added benefit from spending the extra commerce on espionage? I'm not very familiar with the espionage feature since I have played only one BtS game (BOTM 13). I have noticed that many things have changed so maybe I also need a quick update on the warfare related stuff. What about the Airships we plan to station in Roman cities. Will they need ground units to protect against Indian counter attacks?

So far I'm planning to follow SCT's outline of the attack. I would appreciate some comments on the combat odds we should get for Cuirs against fortified longbows and pikemen. Do we need to completely remove the cultural defense to get decent odds? And how many Airship attacks are needed to soften defenders?

 

[ShannonCT]

Is this an added benefit from spending the extra commerce on espionage? I'm not very familiar with the espionage feature since I have played only one BtS game (BOTM 13). I have noticed that many things have changed so maybe I also need a quick update on the warfare related stuff. What about the Airships we plan to station in Roman cities. Will they need ground units to protect against Indian counter attacks?

Spies can perform a mission called "support city revolt" which removes cultural defenses for 1 turn. If we station a spy in Vijay soon and have him stationary for a few turns, we get a discount on this mission.

CP found out that if we station airships in a AI's city, the AI we are at war with can destroy those airship if we dont have a unit protecting them. So you'll have to use your judgement about how likely Gandhi is to destroy our airships if they are left unprotected.

So far I'm planning to follow SCT's outline of the attack. I would appreciate some comments on the combat odds we should get for Cuirs against fortified longbows and pikemen. Do we need to completely remove the cultural defense to get decent odds? And how many Airship attacks are needed to soften defenders?

Frigates and cannons will take down defenses quickly because they ignore walls, castles, and Chichen. You should be able to attack quickly with good odds.

Airship attacks only need to happen on the same turn as the attack on the city happens. They can only take away 20% of a units hit points, and since a unit in a city gains all those HPs back in one turn, it does no good to use airship attacks on successive turns on the same city. That's why I suggest using airships against Vijay on D-Day, against Delhi on D+1, and against Bombay on D+2.

 

[Cactus Pete]

However, units outside a city hit by airships do not recover immediately and are weakened for the succeeding turns as well, until they stop to heal or get into a city. I found several occassions to weaken the AI in this way, so that by the time he got his forces into position to do damage to ours, they were 20% less effective. You will find good use for all our airships.