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[SilentConfusion]

Something I was just thinking about...

In the test map we have done all the same actions as in the real game, but our score is different... close, but still different. I was thinking about why that might be when I thought about your discussions on demographics...

Glad we're on the top of your mind.

It occured to me that maybe it has to do with land, as opposed to water... Doesen't land affect score? So our score is partially impacted by how much land we have (not water) vis-a-vis other Civs... OR vis-a-vis how much TOTAL land there is available... right?

Land is one of the 4 components that affect score. The others are Population, Techs, and Wonders. Specifically, our land score is (2000/map.land#)*(number of tiles that have been inside cultural borders for 20 turns).

So the fact that our score in the game is HIGHER than our score in the test map might mean, that we have a higher PERCENTAGE of the total land available in the real game than in our test map. So there are less land tiles available in the game than there are in our test map... That is why our score is higher in the game than in the test map... because in the test map we control exactly the same amount of land, but since there is more land total, our PERCENTAGE is lower, thus our SCORE is lower. Following me so far? Am I right about this?

Actually I just checked and the actual game has a score of 105 (25 from Pop, 35 from Land, 29 from Tech, 16 from Wonders) on T26. The test save has 109 (26 from Pop, 38 from Land, 29 from Tech, 16 from Wonders) on the same turn.

Although your facts are wrong, your conclusions are right on. So since we have 3 more points from land in the test save this means we have a higher percentage of the total land available in the test save. This means that the real game has more land than the test save, not the other way around.

The population is (5000/map.pop#)*(total population). Some combination of the two is the difference.

Here are the numbers:

Demogame:
map.pop# = 794
map.land# = 781
points per population increase: ~6.30
points per land tile in cultural borders for 20 turn: ~2.56
Pop score at size 4: 25
Land score with 14 land tiles in BFC: 35

Test Save
map.pop# = 758
map.land# = 733
points per population increase: ~6.68
points per land tile in cultural borders for 20 turns: ~2.73
Pop score at size 4: 26
Land score with 14 land tiles in BFC: 38

That brings me to the main point. And if I am right I think its a Biggie.... Why are our scores SO CLOSE in the game and the test map? Our score in the game is 105. In the test map its 101.

Actually when they are both on T26 the test map score is 109 (the difference is the extra population). They are close because the two map.pop#s and the two map.land#s are in the same ballpark. They will of course get less close together as we go along.

That means... That the amount of land in the test map is ALMOST IDENTICAL to the amount of land in the game! Think about that. If that is true, then that means that our Test Map MUST be a pretty accurate representation of what the game map looks like. ... Why? Because if the map was just islands, for example, there would be ALOT more water and our score in the real game would be Much Higher than in the test map. So if wmy analysis is correct, we now KNOW that there are individual islands with a large Central Continent... and Probably a snaky one, just like in our test map.

I am not sure we can say that the continent is snaky or not, but we know that the actual game actually has more land than the test save so I'd say it's pretty safe to say we're not playing a small island map. Maybe the fact that we have more land in the real game means the main continent is less snaky and more filled-in than the one in the test save. I very much still agree that there is a large central continent where everyone will meet and eventually clash. It was a good idea and the idea to use culture to bridge the gap instead of coast was genius. Although this allows early access, as far as I know all of our high food (and therefore high population cities) islands will be out of the trade route loop until Astro. This will slow down the tech rate a little bit, which is necessary with Tech Trading On.

I've actually done this stuff before to try and figure out what can be told from these numbers, but with no success. In the WorldBuilder I added land tiles to the map and that number does not change. I'm not sure why this is. But it may only be related to the number of land tiles when generated. If we could figure out how this number is generated then we could maybe know more, but I can't find anything about it on the forums (although I'm not too great at using the search function to find what I want). Possibly looking at the code could help us. If it doesn't change after modifying it we may not be able to say all of this.

 

[Norton I]

Here is the new version of democalc.exe .Now it completely skips the options that are not allowed because of the ranking. That will reduce the output...

 

[SilentConfusion]

Here is the new version of democalc.exe .Now it completely skips the options that are not allowed because of the ranking. That will reduce the output...

Thanks. Will try it now.

EDIT: Works great. Thanks again.

 

[wideyedwanderer]

It looks like the demographic spreadsheet hasn't been updated in a while, since turn 25. I've got a little bit of time right now, so I'll see what I can do to help.

 

[wideyedwanderer]

I was working on turn 26. It isn't completely finished because my computer started lagging really bad for some reason, and because I'm not entirely sure of what I'm doing. SC, will you please take a look at it and tell me what you think?

 

[SilentConfusion]

I'll take a look at it and compare the numbers with the ones I have at home this evening. I really appreciate the help, especially right now, as I've been busy trying to find a job most days. I need to do an demographics update very badly. I've done some calculations, but not enough.

 

[SilentConfusion]

No job hunting today, so full dedication to diplo at this crucial moment in our young civilization's history. Sirius has The Wheel, but not any of the other Techs we are able to research because we get an extra beaker when teching the wheel, but not any of the others. This means Sirius has The Wheel and doesn't have Myst, Sailing, Writing, Arch, Masonry, HBR, or IW.

 

[SilentConfusion]

It's been too long since I updated this. I have spent many hours updating my information from the screenshots I have. Will do a complete analysis of all turns not already analyzed in this thread.

Just a tidbit for those waiting for this info: We know the Mavs founded Hinduism, but I just found out it was either Quatronia or Sirius that founded Buddhism as they are the only one who got a score increase the turn that Buddhism was founded. Both got techs with no attached soldier points. However, and I will verify this, I think we can tell that Sirius doesn't have Mysticism yet, which would suggest that Quatronia teched Meditation and founded Buddhism. Either way it wasn't Merlot, who started with Mysticism.

 

[SilentConfusion]

Ok. It's time for an update. Well past time, really, but oh well...

Rather than going turn by turn at this point, I think it will be good to step back a bit and look at what our opponents have been doing on a larger scale.

I will focus this update primarily on our opponents' city growth and teching. I'm still working on figuring out some of the techs, but I'll put up what I have.

City Growth

T0: All teams settled the first turn giving everyone a population of 1 in their capitol city.
T18: Merlot and the Mavs along with us are the first to grow to city populations of 2.
T19: Quatronia grows to size 2 this turn.
T20: Sirius grows to size 2 this turn after having gone workboat first.
T21: CDZ grows to size 2 and we grow to size 3.
T22: the Mavs is the second to grow to size 3.
T24: Quatronia grows to size 3.
T25: CDZ grows to size 3 and we grow to size 4.
T26: Quatronia is the second to grow to size 4.
T29: We grow to size 5.
T30: Sirius and CDZ grow to size 4.
T31: Merlot grows to 3 and the Mavericks grow to size 4.
T32: Quatronia is the second to grow to size 5.
T36: Merlot grows to size 4 and CDZ grows to size 5.

Teching

T6: CDZ techs Mining and starts BW.
T8: Sirius techs Mining and starts BW.
T9: Quatronia, Merlot, and Mavericks tech Ag. Mavericks start BW. Sirius switches tech to Wheel.
T11: We tech AH, start Fishing.
T15: Merlot techs Fishing. Sirius switches tech to BW.
T17: We tech Fishing, start Mining.
T18: CDZ techs BW. Sirius switches tech to Wheel.
T19: Sirius techs Wheel and continues with BW.
T22: Mavericks tech BW.
T23: We tech Mining, start BW.
T24: Sirius techs BW.
T25: CDZ techs a tech.
T27: Quatronia and CDZ both tech techs and Merlot techs BW.
T28: Sirius techs a tech and Quatronia techs BW (must have done some tech swapping).
T29: Mavericks tech a tech.
T32: We tech BW, start Myst. Merlot and CDZ tech techs.
T33: Sirius and Quatronia tech techs. One of these (probably Quatronia's) was Meditation.
T34: CDZ techs a tech.
T35: We tech Mysticism, start Sailing. The Mavericks tech Polytheism.
T36: Quatronia techs a tech.

Here's a more visual look at this:

Spoiler :

More coming in the next few days.

 

[Sommerswerd]

What was going on with all the tech switching on Sirius (and maybe Quatronia)? Were they just undecided/conflicted about what to tech or is there some other possibility?

Is there any way to narrow down what some of those 'unknown' tech choices were?

 

[SilentConfusion]

What was going on with all the tech switching on Sirius (and maybe Quatronia)? Were they just undecided/conflicted about what to tech or is there some other possibility?

Is there any way to narrow down what some of those 'unknown' tech choices were?

Not sure about the tech switching. It could be trying to optimize overflow, or it could be reacting to something they saw, but not sure. The GNP numbers really make it look like Sirius switched back and forth and doing the beaker calculations supports this. I have less numerical evidence that I can point to for Quatronia tech switching, at this point, but they had a long break between techs and then hit two in a row, so they must have. Again not quite sure what the reason for this could be.

Yes, the unknown techs can be narrowed down and I'm working on this right now. Looking at Soldier points, GNPs, and available techs we can narrow it down. I will list all the possibilities for each one based on what techs they have and probably a likely hood that the tech could be completed in that time period.

I think I can tell the exact GNP/beaker counts for the first 18 turns, but after people start getting Pop 2 cities and higher GNPs it gets fuzzier and harder to track individual beakers.

I've spent all day doing this stuff and plan to spend all of tomorrow doing it as well. I plan on doing a piece on each team in their embassies with what we know so far about what they've done.

 

[SilentConfusion]

Sirius finished Writing on T37. Quatronia built Stonehenge in their capitol. We know it was them because they gained 16 points and the only other score change was the Mavs 6. Wonders are 16 points each.

EDIT:

Sirius starts with Fishing and Agriculture. They tech Mining first, then Wheel, then BW. The did some swapping between Wheel and BW, not sure why. They teched two techs which were previously unknown before teching Writing on T37. I analyzed our beaker counts after setting our research to each of the possible techs. For all of them it was what it should be without the Known Civs with Tech bonus except the Wheel and Writing. This means that they haven't teched any of the other techs we can research (Med, Poly, Sail, Arch, Mason, HBR, or IW). Since they just got Writing and since they don't have Priesthood, they must have at least Pottery or AH. But if you look at the tech tree, the only possible techs they could have teched that we can't research are MC, Pott, and AH. MC couldn't be teched that quickly, so it must have been both Pottery and AH. As for which one was first, I think it was Pottery. Because the first unknown tech was finished in 4 turns, while the second was finished in 5 turns. Pottery is 119 beakers while AH is 149. There wasn't much of a decline in their GNP, so they must have done pottery first.

But here is their tech path so far:
Start with: Fishing, Agriculture
T8: Mining
T19: Wheel
T24: BW
T28: Pottery
T33: AH
T37: Writing

EDIT2: In 5 turns (so should be T43) we will be able to see the demographs for Sirius. This might not be able to tell us much more than we can already know but we can at least look at them.

 

[SilentConfusion]

Team Sirius settled a city this turn (T38) and The Mavericks founded one last turn (T37). I missed it. Both are mid turn score increases of 6 points. The only explanation for these points is another population from a city settled mid-turn.

 

[SilentConfusion]

Ok. Here's the post where I go back and post everything I should have posted sooner. The last turn report was T25. It's now T39.

Here's what you missed:

T26:

Spoiler :

Score Changes:
Sirius: +6

GNP: (38,32,26,18,18), (38,33,26,18,18), (38,34,26,18,18) with Mavs = 18.
MFG: (5,5,5,4,4) with Mavs = 4.
CY: (13,13,12,10,8), (13,12,12,11,8).
Sirius gains 1 population, growing to size 3. Sirius probably has 38 since the high value jumped with their pop growth.

T27:

Spoiler :

Score Changes:
Quatronia: +13
Merlot: +6
CDZ: +6

GNP: (38,30,24,23,18), (38,30,24,22,18) with Mavs = 18.
MFG: (9,5,5,4,4) with Mavs = 4.
CY: (13,12,12,12,8) with Mavs = 13.
Quatronia gains a pop, going to size 4, and techs a tech while both Merlot and CDZ also tech techs. The main difference is the 11000 increase in soldier points. 1k is from pop increase, but the 10k are from techs/units. Merlot techs BW here which is 8k of the 10k. We know from looking back that Quatronia's tech must have been Mysticism because they will tech Meditation later. This means that CDZ's tech either had 2k soldier points (AH or Sail) or a warrior was built this turn and the tech was Ag, Myst, or Mason (they teched one of these on turn 25).

T28:

Spoiler :

Score Changes:
Quatronia: +6
Sirius: +6

GNP: (32,30,29,23,20), (32,30,29,22,20), (32,30,28,23,20), (32,30,28,22,20) with Mavs = 20.
MFG: (7,5,5,4,2) with Mavs = 2.
CY: (15,14,12,12,8) with Mavs = 15.
Quatronia techs BW. Sirius techs a tech which is probably Pottery, but could have been AH. If it was pottery, then someone built a warrior. Happiness increased so there must have been a luxury resource improved.

T29:

Spoiler :

Score Changes:
Mavs: +6
AMAZON: +6

GNP: (32,30,29,23,20), (32,30,29,22,20), (32,30,28,23,20), (32,30,28,22,20) with Mavs = 20.
MFG: (7,5,5,4,2) with Mavs = 2.
CY: (15,14,12,12,8) with Mavs = 15.
Soldier increase of 4k. Makes sense that Mavs teched Wheel, but they could have teched a 2k tech (AH or Hunt) with a warrior being built that turn.

T30:

Spoiler :

Score Changes:
CDZ: +7
Sirius: +7

GNP: (44,30,29,23,22), (44,30,29,22,22), (44,30,28,23,22), (44,30,28,22,22) with Mavs = 22.
MFG: (8,8,7,4,2) with Mavs = 2.
CY: (15,14,12,12,8) with Mavs = 15.
Both CDZ and Sirius grow to size 4 this turn. Because of the fractional points for each population increase it works out that the increase to size 4 is 7 points instead of 6. This is why Quatronia got +13 the turn they teched a tech and grew to size 4. The 2k soldier increase is from the two pop growths.

T31:

Spoiler :

Score Changes:
Merlot: +6
Mavs: +7

GNP: unknown, too many possibilities
MFG: unknown, too many possibilities
CY: unknown, too many possibilites, but Mavs = 14.
Two pop increases this turn. Mavs go to size 4, hence the +7 and Merlot grows to size 3. The 1k soldier increase is due to pop increase.

T32:

Spoiler :

Score Changes:
Quatronia: +6
Merlot: +6
CDZ: +6
AMAZON: +6

GNP: (44,39,36,33,26), (44,38,37,33,26), (44,38,36,34,26) with Mavs not = 26.
MFG: (11,9,8,5,4), (11,8,8,6,4) with Mavs not = 4.
CY: (14,13,13,12,12) with Mavs = 14.
Quatronia grew to size 5. CDZ and Merlot tech techs. With 8k soldier increase could be both Wheel or one Wheel and a 2k tech (Sail, AH, Hunt (for Merlot), or Arch (for CDZ) and a warrior, or two 2k techs and two warriors. It is possible more in depth analysis of Soldier points turn to turn could determine this.

T33:

Spoiler :

http://i1020.photobucket.com/albums/af325/TeamAMAZON1/Civ4ScreenShot0004-7.jpg

Score Changes:
Quat: +6
Sirius: +6

These numbers are for earlier in the turn than the screenshot that Sommerswerd took so they're only early turn numbers and obviously changed mid turn:
GNP: (50,39,36,33,26), (50,38,37,33,26), (50,38,36,34,26) with Mavs not = 26.
MFG: (11,9,8,5,4), (11,8,8,6,4) with Mavs not = 4.
CY: (14,13,13,12,12) with Mavs = 14.
Quatronia techs Mediation and found Buddhism this turn. Sirius probably techs AH, although it could be pottery if a warrior was built this turn. Someone joined the Mavs at 14 CY mid turn.

T34:

Spoiler :

Score Changes:
CDZ: +6

GNP: unknown, too many possibilities
MFG: unknown, too many possibilities
CY: unknown, too many possibilites
CDZ gains a tech that doesn't give any soldier points. Not sure what it is. Their tech situation is the most unknown to me. I'll keep working on it.

T35:

Spoiler :

Score Changes:
Mavs: +6
AMAZON: +6

GNP: (50,39,36,34,21), (50,38,37,34,21), (50,38,36,35,21) with Mavs not = 21.
MFG: (11,9,5,5,2), (11,8,6,5,2) with Mavs not = 2 or 11.
CY: (14,14,14,13,12) with Mavs not = 12.
Mavs tech Polytheism and found Hinduism this turn. Happiness increases indicating another improved luxury resource.

T36:

Spoiler :

Score Changes:
Quat: +6
Merlot: +7
CDZ: +6

GNP: a lot of possibilities, but top value = 50, 2nd value = 45-48, 3rd value = 43-45, 4th value = 38-39, low value = 30; Mavs not = 30.
MFG: (11,9,8,5,4), (11,8,8,6,4) with Mavs not = 4 or 11.
CY: (15,15,13,13,12), (15,14,14,13,12) with Mavs not = 12.
Merlot grew to size 4. CDZ grows to size 5. Quatronia techs a tech, and there's a 5k soldier increase. 1k soldier points come from Merlot's pop increase. The rest might come from a tech (Wheel), or a tech (Sail, Hunt, AH) plus a warrior, or a tech (Poly, Mason, PH) plus 2 warriors. The possibility of warriors really mess this up a bunch.

T37:

Spoiler :

Score Changes:
Sirius: +6
Mavs: +6

GNP: a lot of possibilities, but top value = 46, 2nd value = 43-46, 3rd value = 39-41, 4th value = 38-39, low value = 34; Mavs not = 34.
MFG: (12,11,8,6,6) with Mavs = 6.
CY: (14,14,12,12,10), (14,13,13,12,10) with Mavs not = 10.
Sirius techs Writing. The Mavs settle their second city and it has 5 land tiles in the first ring. Increased happiness is due to added availability of a luxury resource, whether a luxury was improved or the Mavs settled on a luxury that they already had the techs for.

T38:

Spoiler :

<picture coming>

Score Changes:
Quat: +16
Sirius: +6
Mavs: +6
AMAZON: +6

GNP: (55,45,39,38,34), (55,45,38,38,34), (55,44,39,38,34) with Mavs not = 34.
MFG: (11,11,8,6,6), (11,10,9,6,6), (11,10,8,7,6), (11,10,8,6,6) with Mavs not = 6.
CY: (16,15,14,14,12) with Mavs = 16.
Sirius settled their second city this turn with only 4 land tiles in the first ring. Quatronia completed Stonehenge. The Mavs teched a tech that doesn't convey soldier points. Not sure what it is yet. But I would guess PH since it only took 3 turns to tech.

 

[SilentConfusion]

T39:

Spoiler :

http://i1020.photobucket.com/albums/af325/TeamAMAZON1/Civ4ScreenShot0002-15.jpg

Score Changes:
CDZ: +6

GNP: (56,45,43,40,34), (56,45,42,40,34), (56,44,44,40,34), (56,44,43,41,34), (56,44,43,40,34), (56,44,42,41,34)
MFG: (10,10,10,6,6), (10,10,9,7,6)
CY: (19,17,15,15,14)

CDZ's point increase was due to a tech, and it had to be one without Soldier points.

T40:

Spoiler :

Score Changes:
Quat: +6
Merlot: +6
AMAZON: +6

GNP: (51,45,42,42,34), (51,44,43,42,34)
MFG: (10,10,10,6,4), (10,10,9,7,4)

No Pop increase so must be both techs. Soldier increase of 6k. Could be Wheel + 2k tech or Wheel + Warrior + non-soldier tech or Warrior + 2 2k soldier techs. We will look at it a bit more and see if we can tell which techs.

 

[SilentConfusion]

Score Change Update:

End of T40:
Merlot: +6

They settled their 2nd city at the end of this turn.

T41:
Quatronia: +6
Mavericks: +6

Both of these are due to pop: Quatronia went from size 5 to size 6, while the Mavericks went from size 4 to 5

T42:
Sirius: +6
Mavs: +6

Sirius 4 to size 5, while Mavs must have researched a tech. 3K Soldier point increase on this turn with 1k coming from Sirius' pop growth. That means either a Warrior built and a non Soldier tech or a 2k Soldier tech.

T43:
CDZ: +6
Sirius: +6

We know this is a tech from Sirius and they told us they were teching Sailing. CDZ's increase was also a tech. There was a 4k soldier point increase, with 2k coming from Sailing. Either CDZ teched a 2k soldier tech or a warrior was built and they teched a non soldier tech.

T44:
Quatronia: +6
Merlot: +12
Mavericks: -12

At the end of the turn the Mavericks do a 2-pop whip, the first whip for anyone, to complete the Oracle. Merlot grows 1 pop and finishes a tech. They grow from 4 to 5. Quatronia's point come from a tech. There was a 5k soldier increase before the Mavericks did their whip, of which 1k is from Merlot's growth. The two techs has a maximum of 4k soldier points, although once again a Warrior being built could cloud the issue.

T45:
Sirius: +15
Mavericks: +28, +12
AMAZON: +13

I a little baffled by Sirius' and our points this turn. Mavericks got the Oracle (16 points) and must have teched a first era tech while growing (after their two pop whip) or teched a 2nd era tech. The 12 points a few minutes later is from them selecting a 2nd era tech from the Oracle.

To Be Continued...

 

[Sommerswerd]

I took some shots of the Demographics Graphs this turn. Im not great at reading these things but since we got DoWed this turn, I thought the might be useful to take a look at.

 

[Sommerswerd]

We are owning most of the Graphs, except for Commerce, and Culture... Take a look and bask in our AMAZON might

 

[Sommerswerd]

We have almost caught up to Merlot in Points. They have 84 on us and we have 78 on them.

Merlot Demographics are now visible, so I thought I should take a snapshot of them in case SilCon ever comes back... or we get another Demographics analyst.

If any one has any info on SilCon's whereabouts ... he kind of just fell off the face of the earth... I hope nothing is wrong... its kind of scary.

The most interesting thing to me is the sharp decline in Merlot's Production (Mfg Goods). Also amazing is how high Sirius GDP is (gold).