Who wins the battle? AND Why??

[LivingDog]

I played this game recently so I know the answer to the 1^st question.
1) who won this battle? and
2) why? (how would you explain it?)




Just in case you can't see the image once you click on it, here is the scenario:
1) the level of play was on Warlord,
2) I started the war as the American,
3) there are only two players, me and the computer who is Roman,
4) I was in the modern age and as you can see, Rome was still in the Middle Ages.
5) the Roman sword soldier attacked my city which was defended by a fortified infantry unit.

So who, in your estimation, won this battle and why?


thx in advance for any help you may give me.

Image hosted by ImageShack.us

 

[Bartleby]

That's a Crusader attacking a fortified Marine in a town?

Combat Calculator says there's 15% chance you lose.
(I suspect that's an overestimation, because I think the Marine has a defensive bombard, but I'm not sure.

edit: as to the why, it's based on the attack value of the attacker compared to the defence value of the defender.
Crusader attacks at 5, Marine defends at 6 [based on memory].

If it's an Infantry (defends at 10) the chance that a Crusader would win is a little less than 5%.

edit #2: I forgot to make the Crusader a veteran in the combat calc.

probability of Crusader win vs. Marine fortified in town: 25.5%
probability of Crusader win vs. Infantry fortified in town: 9%

 

[vmxa]

All Bartleby said is correct it is not uch more than a toss up, but the real cultprit is the rng. I presume we would not have this posed, if the defender had won. In test you can see out comes range from A kills B and takes no damage to B killing A and taking no damage.

2K was working on fixing that during 1.22, but ran out of time and money. I was hoping for a moderator like Fire Power. They wanted to allow obsolete units to be useful, I did not like that.

I would have preferred to see only a very small chance for inferior units to win. At least tone the rng down so the swings are much narrower than currently. Did not happen. So lat night I lost several elite cavs to 1hp inferior units with no defensive bonus. Just the way it goes.

 

[ChaosArbiter]

(I suspect that's an overestimation, because I think the Marine has a defensive bombard, but I'm not sure.

They don't, but it would only matter if there were another defender anyway, since the Bombardment can't come from the defending unit.

1) who won this battle? and
2) why? (how would you explain it?)

1) Since you're here, I suspect the AI Crusader (not Swordsman, unless you've messed around with the picture files) defeated your Marine.

2) Five Attack against Fortified 6 Defense in a Town with no City Walls comes out to 5 vs 9, IIRC (possibly 10 - I'm not sure how/where the Plains 10% bonus comes in). It's not a good chance of victory, but I'm guessing came into play.

Unless you wanted a 'story' explanation, in which case:
Marines armed with automatic weapons set up defensive perimeter, Crusaders advance with steel shields to minimize casualties, once they close Swords prove effective against flak jackets and Marines are routed/butchered.

1) the level of play was on Warlord,
2) I started the war as the American,
3) there are only two players, me and the computer who is Roman,
4) I was in the modern age and as you can see, Rome was still in the Middle Ages.
5) the Roman sword soldier attacked my city which was defended by a fortified infantry unit.

1-3 are irrelevant. 4 seems to be wrong - the Romans are Industrial (see Gordion) as are you. 5 has been noted - that's a Crusader, not a Swordsman, attacking a Marine, not an Infantry.

 

[Desertsnow]

Yeah, "sword unit" is actually a Crusader, 5/3/1.

Also the other unit is a cavalry unit, so the Romans are definitely past the middle ages.

I'm going to say the Romans won.

 

[GamezRule]

Cav's come in the Middle Ages.

 

[Fiddlin Nero]

Sure the Crusader could have won. If you saved without the seed# you could run it a few times, my guess would be a few times out of a 100.

I think one of the reasons I have kept playing this game is the way it can anger me at things like this.

 

[LivingDog]

Bartleby: I wish my Veteran Infantry had 10 defense. Instead I think he wet himself as that big burley man-meat lunged at him with that puny sword.

vmxa: you got it right in one. My defender lost to a (puke) sword swisher. But ok, labelling aside, this is so wrong I started to yell "HACK!" ... but didn't since I was playing against my own computer. :/

ChaosArbiter: mae culpa (is my newbie-ness showing?)

Desertsnow: amazing how many of you guys figured that out.

GamezRule: *sigh*, sorry

Fiddlin Nero: yes, you read my mind. Why would I need the seed number if I saved the game... oh, you mean I could replay up to this point? yeow! Now that's hardcore CivIII! I do save before I start a war. I am so bad at this that I usually lose the battles.

E.g.:

very small enemy infant (not infantry)
vs.
my MARINE-TANK-AIRCRAFT-CARRIER​

... I lose every time.

Hearing that the machine's AI allows for such silly wins though bolsters me to try again and again and ... and I don't think it matters since the AI decides the fate. Maybe I'll reload the saved game and keep trying until the AI comes to my senses.


Thanks to all!

 

[GamezRule]

What tech do Cavs come? Military Tradition.

Military Tradition comes after Metallurgy, in the Middle Ages. It is an optional tech, so you could go all the way to the modern age and never build Cavs.

 

[ChaosArbiter]

Bartleby: I wish my Veteran Infantry had 10 defense. Instead I think he wet himself as that big burley man-meat lunged at him with that puny sword.

An Infantry is the unit in Chicago; the unit in New Washington is a Marine.

Desertsnow: amazing how many of you guys figured that out.

The smily that's in my post depicts a Spearman (Defense 2) winning against a Tank (Attack 16). Because of the way the game is set up (someone decided all units should be roughly competitive), crazy outcomes - while relatively rare - happen often enough for people to complain about them. Spearmen beating Tanks is a particularly common occurrence.

Fiddlin Nero: yes, you read my mind. Why would I need the seed number if I saved the game... oh, you mean I could replay up to this point? yeow! Now that's hardcore CivIII! I do save before I start a war. I am so bad at this that I usually lose the battles.

Before you start the game, one of the options is called "Preserve Random Seed" - depending on whether this option is checked or not, reloading the game can change the outcome of a combat.

 

[DWetzel]

Remember, even if you have a 99% chance of winning a given battle, if you don't see yourself lose it 1% of the time on average, something's wrong with your RNG.

 

[Desertsnow]

Oops my bad.

On the other hand, Cavs do come at the end of the Middle Ages.

On the other other hand, it can still be the Middle Ages.

 

[darski]

Absolutely nothing matters but the roll of the die on the turn you attack. Nothing but nothing.

"Baby needs a new pair of shoes"

if the pRNG gods hate you baby will be unshod.

 

[Hasdrubal Barca]

Crusaders used warcry before attacking and King Richard were with them that day, on the other side, Marines were recovering from party last night with 5 dolla girls and forgot to bring ammo for M-60s, thus forced to use knifes on melee combat while still under the effect of unknown substances, the result was obvious.

 

[LivingDog]

...

The smily that's in my post depicts a Spearman (Defense 2) winning against a Tank (Attack 16). Because of the way the game is set up (someone decided all units should be roughly competitive), crazy outcomes - while relatively rare - happen often enough for people to complain about them. Spearmen beating Tanks is a particularly common occurrence.

...

You mean roughly equal? Yes, that shows no sense at all. But it happens this way for me more than 1% in fact ~70% of the time my stronger unit loses. I can see why ppl complain about this aspect of CivIII. (Acronym alert! PS: FYI: and BTW: your GIF made me want to learn GIMP. )

Darksi, where's Al Bundy when you need him?? (Yes, I usually walk away shoeless.)


Last War: America just declared war on us peace loving Mongols. Amazingly a size 2 city, with no food sources (and no gold - pillage is so much fun), after being built for ~20 turns had several regular spearmen who managed to defeat my veteran spearmen, my sword swisher guys and a few horsemen. Does the game hate me that much?? Well, fortunately I didn't save.

BTW, why is it that when *I* win a city I get 0 gold, but when the AI wins one of my cities it gets like 75!!??

Thanks again guys...

 

[Dumanios]

1: Spearmen are for defending the stack, only attack with them when you've exhausted everything else.
2: The AI may or may not have sent a large stack with their Settler.
3: Rather than 2, the AI may simply be a cheating arsehole.

 

[ChaosArbiter]

You mean roughly equal? Yes, that shows no sense at all.

No, I meant competitive - a Spearman is not roughly equal with a Guerilla, yet it is still competitive with it (try attacking a Fortified Spearman in Hill-founded Metropolis, I dare you ...). This is primarily because (as vmxa noted) there are no modifiers for combat, it's just a numbers game, and the numbers are close enough for all the units to be roughly competitive. Even changing HP a little would make quite a difference (what's the difference between a Knight and an Indian Elephant? The Elephant needs no resources and has +1 HP - it is better in every way).

But it happens this way for me more than 1% in fact ~70% of the time my stronger unit loses.

I would like to see actual statistics on this, since unless you're in the habit of attacking into Fortified Spearmen on Hills across Rivers, even 25% would sound abnormally high.

Last War: America just declared war on us peace loving Mongols. Amazingly a size 2 city, with no food sources (and no gold - pillage is so much fun), after being built for ~20 turns had several regular spearmen who managed to defeat my veteran spearmen, my sword swisher guys and a few horsemen. Does the game hate me that much?? Well, fortunately I didn't save.

... Are you saying you attacked with *Spearmen*? Please say that you didn't do that. Anyway, Spearmen have Defense 2, Swordsmen have Attack 3, Horsemen have Attack 2; for Fortified Spears (even without Walls) to beat Swords/Horses isn't terribly unusual.

BTW, why is it that when *I* win a city I get 0 gold, but when the AI wins one of my cities it gets like 75!!??

The AI tends to be broke. You can actually see how much Gold is being stored in each of your cities in the Domestic Advisor screen (F1) IIRC.

 

[GamezRule]

Speaking of that, I razed an Indian city today and got 38 gold.

 

[LivingDog]

Dumanios: " ... cheating AI ..."

me: Well, ppl complain about it, so it clearly aint right - aka "fair" - so cheating AI? yeah I agree.

ChaosArbiter:
i) "This is primarily because (as vmxa noted) there are no modifiers for combat, it's just a numbers game, ... "
ii) "I would like to see actual statistics on this, since unless you're in the habit of attacking into Fortified Spearmen on Hills across Rivers, even 25% would sound abnormally high."
iii) " ... you attacked with *Spearmen*? Please say that you didn't do that. ..."
iv) "The AI tends to be broke."

me:
i) ohhh, i c what Darski was saying now - it's the roll and _nothing_ more. And now I see your 'competitive' point. -thx!
ii) Ok, maybe not 70%, more like 69.999% :/ I would like to see the statistics on this as well. If it is saved in game, I'll retrieve it, edit it to make me look right ... oh, did I say that out loud? Anyway, if it is I will post it post-haste!
iii) I won't say that ... again. (ahem) (note to self, don't use spearmen to attack...)
iv) I've noticed that! When I deal with it, I always grab what little it has. BTW, am I being too frugal? I usually have 1k - 3k in my vaults. Then I can upgrade my units with no problem.

Thanks again guys!

 

[GamezRule]

Also, it's worth mentioning that defenders get at least a 10% bonus on every terrain. If you don't believe me, look up coast, sea, ocean, grassland, plains, and tundra in the Civilopedia.