The Test Game
It should be mostly accurate, at least enough for us to figure out the micro for the next little while.
It was hard to model what is happening in City 4, so I faked things a bit by using a build item that we're not likely to build (a City Wall) to give us almost the correct overflow Hammers (we'll be short by 1 Hammer).
I also gave us The Oracle, which will give us the same Culture and GPP in City 4.
However, you'll have to manually give ourselves Civil Service on T70.
Once we figure out what we're going to build in Cap in place of a Spy, which is very likely going to be a Work Boat (as we'll need several Work Boats very soon and Gems City really can't produce them quickly, while Surfin' Turf is far away from Triple Fish Island and City 4 can't produce Work Boats at all, so X-opolis really needs to help out with making Work Boats), it will probably make sense to play a 1-turn PPP just to make sure that we grab Civil Service properly and can then breathe a sigh of relief.
Build Queue Manipulation
We should be making use build-queue manipulation to preserve the Hammers invested in build items that won't get built for a while. Any time that a build item appears at the top of the build queue, Hammers in that build item won't decay. Turns of Anarchy are the perfect time to put a build item at the top of a build queue which we won't be finishing for a while.
Does everyone know how to do so?
Shift + click puts a build item at the bottom of a City's build queue
Ctrl + click puts a build item at the top of a City's build queue
Clicking on an item in a City's build queue removes it from the build queue
Religion
It seems that Elizabeth is Hindu. Sending her our Confucian Missionary via Galley would probably be a good way to use of our Confucian Missionary. The trouble is that it would take a long time to do so, as we need our Galley close to our capital for now.
It would be unfortunate to be running a different State Religion from Elizabeth for a significant amount of time.
That said, it could take a while before we'll get a Galley up to Elizabeth's area, and owning the Missionary for all of that time will cost us 1 Gold per turn. So, we could certainly consider the idea of spreading our Missionary domestically or spreading him in Willem's capital.
If we're going to spread him domestically, one option is to wait for another Religion to spread to one of our Cities and then spread Confucianism there. Another option is to spread Confucianism in City 4 if it hasn't spread by the time that we're finished our turn or turns of Anarchy with the plan to switch to Confucianism on T71, so that the overflow Hammers from The Oracle and Chopped Hammers going into the Granary will benefit from Organized Religion. But, that's only 1 Building, while we'll probably mostly just build Units in City 4 afterward, until we gift the City away to Willem.
So, we could pick Surfin' Turf and plan to build Lighthouse -> Library -> Barracks there.
Galleys
It would be nice to get a Galley up near Elizabeth to send her Confucianism. It would also be nice to have at least 1 Galley to later be able to shuttle units to Willem's capital, although bringing a 2nd Galley later would be ideal.
However, we have uses for Galleys nearby...
i. Settler 5 to Fur City
ii. Some Worker to Triple Fish Island
iii. Settler 6? to Triple Fish Island
iv. After Worker 1 finishes Camping the Deer, Roading the Deer, then Chopping/Cottaging the G square on Fur City Island, he'll need to be sent elsewhere
v. Sheep Settler (Settler 9?) saving a couple of turns walking
So, it would be nice to get another Galley at some point, in order to send one northward while the other stays at home to perform necessary duties.
Great People
Elizabeth got her Great Prophet in 1320 BC. But, it is 1240 BC now and we didn't gift Monotheism to her, so she didn't Lightbulb Theology, which would have unlocked The Apostolic Palace early on.
She has probably settled her Great Prophet, which means that capturing London becomes an even higher priority.
We should not gift her Monotheism now, as doing so would just encourage her to go after Monarchy, which we don't want her to do.
I'm not sure if we can still 100% target an AP Victory anymore, but so far we've managed to keep 4 Religions to players that we have met, so as long as that trend continues, we should hopefully still be able to get The Apostolic Palace built by an AI that we can meet pre-Optics.
We've also kept the Great Prophet Wonders to the locals (Elizabeth and us), but since it'll probably take her a while to generate Great Person #2, there will be time for another AI to sneak in a Great Prophet Wonder somewhere.
The worst thing that can happen is an AI building The Temple of Artemis or the Shwedagon Paya, Lightbulbing Theology, then building the Apostolic Palace on another continent, in which case we'll need to rethink our Victory Condition.
City Builds
Now is a crucial time where we're going to need to focus on REXing by building Settlers and Workers for a while.
Anarchy on T70 (and probably also T71 if we want to use Organized Religion + Confucianism)
While we're in Anarchy, we should put build items in our build queues that are not going to be completed for a while. That would mean a Barracks in Gems City, the Spy in X-opolis, and the Archer in Surfin' Turf, but just for when we're in Anarchy.
Science Rate
I believe that a 0% is wise for at least this turn, as we will have 0 fractional losses due to having 4 Scientist Specialists hired.
After that, we'll have to judge on a turn-by-turn basis, but with an Academy being 11 turns of Commerce-earning away (10 turns for the Great Scientist to be generated + 1 turn of movement), we'll need to make a call on:
i. Earlier Currency
VS
ii. Delaying Currency so that we can get the Academy's Flasks while reseraching Currency
We'll have roughly 150 / 650 Flasks researched in it if we stay at a 0% Science Rate. It would take us roughly 5 turns to research the rest of Currency. We wouldn't benefit from Currency's extra Trade Routes during Anarchy, although we could earn back Gold in lump sum sales of techs to AIs, assuming that we want to sell any techs at the time and that an AI actually has more than, say, 10 Gold to offer us at a time.
Let's say that an Academy would be worth an extra
16 Flasks per turn for 5 turns. That's
80 Flasks.
We can probably earn about as much from Gold trades and extra Trade Routes, so I'd say that we'll end up teching Currency before getting our Great Scientist. EDIT: It may make sense just to horde Gold until our Academy gets built, especially if our plan will be to gift Gold to Willem after learning Currency.
*** EDIT: I forgot to account for the Bureaucracy bonus, so I edited the above estimate, so it might also make sense to wait until we get our Great Scientist before hitting 100% on Currency, especially if we can afford to delay the revolt into Hereditary Rule until the time when our Great Scientist is moving.
An option could be to switch to Bureaucracy + Caste System and then later to Hereditary Rule + Slavery, but I don't think that our Cities are really set up to take advantage of doing so... by the time that Gems City could grow to Size 5 and hire a 3rd Scientist Specialist, it would be T73 and we would have 112 / 200 GPP, meaning needing another 88 GPP. 88 / 12 = 7 turns, while 88 / 18 = 5 turns... a 2-turns savings is not worth it.
We need to focus on REX, so having the capital hire a bunch of Specialists in Caste System to get our 3rd Great Person sooner isn't the right play, either.
So, i. Earlier Currency it is, without switching into Caste System.
That said, after learning Currency, it makes sense to stay at a 0% Science Rate until we have our Academy built.
We should also stay at 0% or close to 0% until one turn after Willem has researched Monarchy and we see what he will be teching after that tech, and if it's not Currency, we can jump our Research rate up to 100% on Currency.
Monarchy
Well, The big happy pill is monarchy. We should be able to trade CoL for it.
Testing shows that this trade isn't possible. We'll need some Flasks invested in Monarchy.
Testing showed that we would need 29 Flasks invested in Monarchy to be able to trade Code of Laws for it.
An alternative option would be to gift Code of Laws to Willem on the turn before he learns Monarchy and sell him Civil Service for Monarchy, which would give him a chance to go into early Bureaucracy.
Trade Routes
It seems that we only have 3 Foreign Trade Routes with Shaka, so one of his 4 Cities must not yet be connected to the rest of his empire.
Then again, I saw weird stuff going on with Sury in the test game, where we only got Trade Routes with 2 of his Cities initially and then with a 3rd one when he founded his 5th City, even though the initial 4 Cities all have Roads connecting them.
So, there are some mysteries with how Trade Routes work.
Unit Movements
Willem's Cultural Borders have expanded, so once Warrior 2 heals (1 turn should be good enough to get him to 2 health or close to that, as you heal 0.3 while in your own Cultural Borders and we're at 1.7/2 Health--which, in BtS, I believe means somewhere in the range of 1.65 to 1.74) and moves westward, we'll be able to send Warrior 3 to guard Surfin' Turf. Warrior 3 will make his way through the Forests, to give us greater chances of Forest regrowth, but not until after Warrior 2 has healed for a turn and moved out.
So, something like:
T69, 1240 BC
Archer 1: Wake up and move 1W GH
T70, 1200 BC
Warrior 2: Wake up and, assuming that no Barbs are visible, move 1W GH Riv
Warrior 3: If Warrior 2 moved 1W, then move 1E G Riv For, then move SE from here on future turns... walking ON Forests preserves their chance of spreading. Walking on flatland adjacent to Forests (as we would do if we instead just headed straight SE) would be bad, as we'd prevent Forest growth wherever Warrior 3 was standing each turn
Archer 1: If Barbs are spotted, he can react accordingly, otherwise he could head 1SW G Riv (1E of the G Riv Horse), since we'd be able to see all of the surrounding squares having just been on the GH square
T71, 1160 BC
Warrior 2: With Willem's Cultural Borders there, dare to move 1NW GH For
Archer 1: Again, if no Barbs are spotted, we could move 1SW (Something) Riv For
T72, 1120 BC
Warrior 2: Move 1W GH For, which will be adjacent to Willem's Cultural Borders and which is a spot that will give us spawn-busting in the area from a pretty safe location and can give us advance notice of Shaka's units coming
Archer 1: Find a spot in the area that can give us good advance warning of Shaka's units coming, perhaps moving 1NW (to 1W of the G Riv Horse) which is another Forest square... we can figure out this detail after we've explored that area a bit more
When Building Workers and Settlers
Please remember that when building a Worker or a Settler, it is often preferable to work a Mine than a Farm, since all Food gets converted into Hammers.
This point applies even more strongly in a Bureaucratic capital, since our "actual" base Hammers get multiplied by Bureaucracy's bonus, but our "converted" base Food does not get multiplied by Bureaucracy's bonus.
Example:
After 3-pop-whipping a Settler, the game likes to leave a G Riv Farm assigned instead of a GH Riv Mine.
In our capital, that means:
G Riv Farm = 3 F -> 3 H, for a net 3 H + 1 C
GH Riv Mine = 1 F -> 1 H, 3 H * 1.5 = 4.5 H (say, floor to 4), for a net 1 + 4 = 5 H + 1 C
Just by paying attention, we make 2 (or possibly 3) extra Hammers for doing nothing other than being alert to the opportunity!
Things to figure out
Which Civics to run. Probably switch to Bureaucracy + Org Rel on T70, then Confucianism on T71, with us optionally Opening Borders with Isabella on T71 before switching to Confucianism, since a BtS AI won't cancel an Open Borders agreement and Isabella has one of the worst game-long hatreds toward heathens.
Or, we could just plan to stay in No State Religion for quite some time, only switching into Org Rel once we get Monarchy and then only so that we can build Missionaries without needing Monasteries.
What to do with Workers 2 and 3.
What to build in X-opolis... I'm thinking Work Boat for 1 turn, then complete Worker 5 after Settler 5, then finish off the Work Boat while growing.
What to build in Gems City. Probably Work Boat -> Work Boat.
What to build in Surfin' Turf. Probably not another Archer just yet. A Lighthouse would be good, especially if we go for Organized Religion and wait for Confucianism to auto-spread there for a turn, then spread it ourselves if it hasn't spread by the start of T72 (2 turns of Revolts... no point spreading before then because the Missionary won't cost us 1 Gold per Turn while in Anarchy).
What to build in City 4 after the Granary. Probably partial a partial Archer and a partial Spy, later whipping a Settler or a Worker after growing.
What we're going to do with Gems City after getting the Great Scientist... maybe fire the 2 Scientists, grow to Size 6, then 3-pop-whip another Settler? REXing will be good at this stage.
Worker 4 should be pretty easy... Pasture the G Cow, Road it, then Farm the G Riv that is 1NE of Surfin' Turf.
Do we want to spend 29 Flasks to get Monarchy or do we want to enable Willem with really early Civil Service's Bureaucracy Civic?
EDIT: I forgot to account for Bureaucracy's bonus on the Academy, so perhaps it makes sense to stay at a 0% Science Rate until the Academy gets built, especially if we can save 1 turn by switching to Hereditary Rule just after the Great Scientist appears and while it is moving to X-opolis.
EDIT: Also, we should figure out our Foreign Diplo policy. I'm tempted to say "If an AI Demands anything, give it to them except for Monarchy or Feudalism."