amadeus
burning out his fuse out here alone
It’s been a while since Egypt’s military has been battle-tested, but historically the victories have been few in number from the wars I can recall.
The Africa Thread
- Thread starter Borachio
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Bonyduck Campersang
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Somalia expels Ethiopian ambassador amid Somaliland port deal dispute
Mogadishu also shuts down Addis Ababa’s consulates in Hargeisa, capital of the Somaliland, and Garowe in Puntland.
Comrade Ceasefire
Simmer slowly
My sister and friends playing dress-ups in Morocco during art/photography tours she conducts.
Is that a real business? One that supports her or a group of people?
Comrade Ceasefire
Simmer slowly
Yes, she lives there for 6 months with her partner and 6 months back in Australia.
I didn't mention the name of the business or any other details so I thought it would be Ok. Please remove if it's not allowed and accept my apologies.
Your post is fine. Good niche marketing on her part. Making a living doing what you love in places you want to be is especially nice. 
Comrade Ceasefire
Simmer slowly
Covid hit the country very hard, but it has bounced back.Your post is fine. Good niche marketing on her part. Making a living doing what you love in places you want to be is especially nice.
The third business partner is an Amazigh (Berber) guide whose family live in the Atlas Mountains. He is the one who convinced the other two it was a good niche business. He also arranges all the stop-off places where they can visit local artisans, stay overnight etc.
They usually have an invited arty/crafty expert: e.g. textiles, jewellery making, photography, painting, drawing.
Most of the tour members are retired art teachers from Australia, UK, US and Japan.
The worst group they had were self-entitled 30somethings from North Sydney, who sighed loudly every time they couldn't get their favourite brand of sparkling mineral water. On the edge of the Sahara, in some place with accommodation for 20!
After the earthquake, only one person has cancelled a booking: an American who wanted to know if there would be an earthquake in October 2025. Hrmmph!
pm me a link please.
It is a historic day in South Africa
With 99 percent of the ballots counted, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) is leading with just over 40 percent share of the national vote, three days after the country voted in national elections that could throw up the biggest challenge to the ANC’s political dominance since the end of apartheid in South Africa.
The Democratic Alliance (DA), the country’s principal opposition party, is currently in second place followed by the MK party and EFF.
With 99 percent of the ballots counted, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) is leading with just over 40 percent share of the national vote, three days after the country voted in national elections that could throw up the biggest challenge to the ANC’s political dominance since the end of apartheid in South Africa.
The Democratic Alliance (DA), the country’s principal opposition party, is currently in second place followed by the MK party and EFF.
Spoiler Map and stuff :
I wonder if he has or will solve the water and power problems.
My ignorant view is that power sharing can be a good thing, as leaders are forced to negotiate and drive towards a "common good" rather than extremes. Might even lower corruption given those around you aren't all "friends". Can anyone agree with this, or am I naïve?
There is a certain logic. Also getting an explicitly Marxist political party onto the government of a major world economy can be a good thing,or am I naïve?
Why might it be the EFF? The DA is losely the white party, and so the enemy. For many even on the right of the ANC may see an alliance with them as far more unpalatable that the EFF.
MKP is Jacob Zuma. He 99% cares about getting a pardon. Any deal with him will require that, then that will happen and he will care about the other 1% which may make him break the deal within the year. However bad this deal is I think it the most likely.
I suppose options are mathematically possible, depending how the voting system allocates the votes at thin tail, but I cannot see it be practically possible. That only leaves the EFF. That could be stable if everyone gets something, and does not require an ANC person to try and get votes after making a deal with someone associated by their voters with the old regime.
Spoiler EFF :
Spoiler Long form current results :
Last edited:
Power sharing with the DA is the obvious choice and would give them a 60% majority. But I do not know anything about their particular platform differences.
Certainly interesting, I've been reading up on both the election and the reasons for the changes in the ANC vote share over the weekend, and am hoping to catch up with a friend who used to live in South Africa later this week to discuss it in person.
I can see why the ANC is losing voters. "Load shedding" - i.e. rolling blackouts on over 250 days of 2023. They've made some progress recently, in part because of a boom in local solar over the past year decreasing demand on the central grid, and haven't had load shedding for several weeks, but even the ANC has admitted it's a reason why they've lost votes. And 33% unemployment (45% among the young), barely down from the pandemic high of 35%, and considerably up from the pre-pandemic of circa 20%, which is still quite high compared to most countries. Various other factors as well - corruption, failure to stop looting of infrastructure that has upended the rail network and power grid, poor delivery of water in some areas - and it's not hard to see why they lost over 15% of the electorate.
I have no idea who they'll form a coalition with. Teaming up with the EFF would give the ANC 198 votes, 3 short of a majority, so they'd need a three-party coalition. The MK has said they will not form a coalition with the ANC so long as Ramaphosa is in charge, the ANC wants to keep Ramaphosa, and there's the bad blood between Ramaphosa and Zuma, so that seems unlikely to me. The DA has said their top priority is preventing an ANC-EFF coalition, and they're willing to see if they can form an agreement with the ANC, so I see that as more likely than ANC-MK, but ANC+EFF+smaller party could also happen. Really depends on who can come to an agreement in negotiations.
So I think it really depends on how the EFF would go about it. If they redistribute the land quickly and to the first person who signs up, it's probably going to end poorly as it did in Zimbabwe. If instead they redistribute the land incrementally and provide educational support for those who are going to receive the land - on running the farm and the business side of it - it could succeed and reduce South Africa's very high level of inequality. I'm not sure which approach they'd pursue in practice, although given that there party leader has already been indicted for hate speech (granted, many years ago now), I wouldn't be surprised if they try a quick approach and it went poorly.
From a practical standpoint, my opinion is the best outcome is likely whatever is most likely to reduce unemployment significantly by the 2029 elections, both for South Africa and for the ANC's chances of doing better in 2029. Assuming they don't want to work with Zuma, do they think the EFF's desired reforms are likely to work? If so, then go with them and another, smaller party. If not, go with the DA and see if some of their reforms can reduce the unemployment problem.
I can see why the ANC is losing voters. "Load shedding" - i.e. rolling blackouts on over 250 days of 2023. They've made some progress recently, in part because of a boom in local solar over the past year decreasing demand on the central grid, and haven't had load shedding for several weeks, but even the ANC has admitted it's a reason why they've lost votes. And 33% unemployment (45% among the young), barely down from the pandemic high of 35%, and considerably up from the pre-pandemic of circa 20%, which is still quite high compared to most countries. Various other factors as well - corruption, failure to stop looting of infrastructure that has upended the rail network and power grid, poor delivery of water in some areas - and it's not hard to see why they lost over 15% of the electorate.
I have no idea who they'll form a coalition with. Teaming up with the EFF would give the ANC 198 votes, 3 short of a majority, so they'd need a three-party coalition. The MK has said they will not form a coalition with the ANC so long as Ramaphosa is in charge, the ANC wants to keep Ramaphosa, and there's the bad blood between Ramaphosa and Zuma, so that seems unlikely to me. The DA has said their top priority is preventing an ANC-EFF coalition, and they're willing to see if they can form an agreement with the ANC, so I see that as more likely than ANC-MK, but ANC+EFF+smaller party could also happen. Really depends on who can come to an agreement in negotiations.
I think first and foremost it depends on whether they are more pragmatic in their land redistribution goals than Mugabe was in Zimbabwe. From what I've read about Zimbabwe, their fundamental economic flaw was not considering whether the land would be farmed productively after it was redistributed. The land went from being relatively well-managed from an agricultural standpoint (albeit very unequally managed from an equality standpoint) to being subsistence agriculture focused, and not very productively so at that. In the process Zimbabwe went from the breadbasket of that part of Africa to being dependent on donations from abroad to feed its population, and much poorer across the board as well.There is a certain logic. Also getting an explicitly Marxist political party onto the government of a major world economy can be a good thing,or am I naïve?
So I think it really depends on how the EFF would go about it. If they redistribute the land quickly and to the first person who signs up, it's probably going to end poorly as it did in Zimbabwe. If instead they redistribute the land incrementally and provide educational support for those who are going to receive the land - on running the farm and the business side of it - it could succeed and reduce South Africa's very high level of inequality. I'm not sure which approach they'd pursue in practice, although given that there party leader has already been indicted for hate speech (granted, many years ago now), I wouldn't be surprised if they try a quick approach and it went poorly.
From a practical standpoint, my opinion is the best outcome is likely whatever is most likely to reduce unemployment significantly by the 2029 elections, both for South Africa and for the ANC's chances of doing better in 2029. Assuming they don't want to work with Zuma, do they think the EFF's desired reforms are likely to work? If so, then go with them and another, smaller party. If not, go with the DA and see if some of their reforms can reduce the unemployment problem.
It looks like the ANC, and Ramaphosa in particular, is currently favoring a coalition with the ANC and the DA, and perhaps the IFP as well.
www.citizen.co.za
Additional sources: https://mg.co.za/politics/2024-06-0...c-anc-electoral-loss-seeks-coalition-with-da/, https://www.iol.co.za/sundayindepen...oalition-659e5b69-7861-46ae-821a-5ca1c2b84990
ANC stalwarts favour DA, IFP deal | The Citizen
DA is said to be the main partner in the coalition and other non-radical parties to be invited...
www.citizen.co.za
Additional sources: https://mg.co.za/politics/2024-06-0...c-anc-electoral-loss-seeks-coalition-with-da/, https://www.iol.co.za/sundayindepen...oalition-659e5b69-7861-46ae-821a-5ca1c2b84990
The first Mandela cabinet was ANC-NP-IFP. A slightly rebranded NP later merged into ANC. If the ANC can absorb the actual party of Apartheid, they should be able to deal with the DA.
But it was the NP habit of making deals with the ANC that partly caused the decline of the party (voters defected to the DA mostly). DA leaders would have this in mind.
