tl; dr: agree with principle, not sold on astro.
Well, it will be the map layout that ultimately dictates whether or not we will need Astronomy.
Here are some of the clues that we have been given.
How about a "blind" setup: teams start without knowing the map type, climate settings, or the number of AI opponents.
If, as seems likely, the map is highly customized, then the likelihood is that that aspect of the setup will to some extent be 'blind'.
I can now tell you that the game will be played to a domination or conquest victory on a sea-based map.
based on this thread and the poll results, you can expect that it will be either emperor or immortal (with the map designed to hopefully pitch the difficulty between those levels), using a heavily modified map, and the game will be open to a military victory.
exiled to the remote island of Elba
this is a difficult map for warring
your opponents aren't exactly the countries of the sixth coalition - DS admits he took a bit of artistic license!
conquest or domination victory with the earliest in-game dates.
Nothing there is conclusive in saying whether or not we will need Galleons in order to conquer every AI. However, based on my understanding of the way that Erkon thinks, as well as the direction of the
"What do you want" thread influencing how DynamicSpirit weighs-in on the subject, then my prediction is that we will be given:
a) Sufficient land to win a Domination Victory without Astronomy
b) An inability to reach at least one of the AIs for a Conquest Victory without Astronomy.
However, my thinking is mostly a prediction and we shouldn't treat it as being fact-based.
But, it does beg the following questions:
1. If our chosen Victory Condition cannot be accomplished without requiring Astronomy, would we be more likely to change our approach and chase after the Victory Condition that can be achieved without requiring Astronomy, or would we be more likely to stick with our planned Victory Condition and head to Astronomy?
2. Assuming that we at minimum have a backup plan in place to go for Astronomy, and maximally plan to go for it straight-out, will we aim to Lightbulb techs along the Astronomy path? Taking a Lightbulbing path means no early Bureaucracy, no early Monasteries, and no Macemen on Galleys.
3. If we do go for a Lightbulbing path and thus skip Bureaucracy for quite some time, would we also skip building an Academy with our first Great Scientist, or is building one still a very strong play in even a non-Bureaucratic capital, especially in one where we will have only modest production and not an overly large amount of Commerce? One consideration is that the sooner that you can get your Great Scientists to Lightbulb techs along the chosen path, the sooner that you can get your Galleons out, and the sooner that you can self-tech Civil Service after Lightbulbing. The other consideration is that there are a number of non-cheap techs that should be researched along the way (Calendar, Currency, probably at least one of Metal Casting, Machinery, or Compas, if not more than one of them--where the others of them might be Lightbulbed or Oracled), etc... in which case an Academy could actually be an overall savings... I just don't have the experience to know which way to go for a case like this game.
4. If we aren't going to plan to aggressively Lightbulb Astronomy, would we consider going for early Civil Service, or would a partially-Coastal Bureaucratic capital be a bit too weak to bother?
5. If we only have one nearby neighbour that can offer us Foreign Intercontinental Trade Routes (for whatever reason--being semi-isolated, being far away from the AIs, having a Barb City blocking Trade Routes to other Civs, etc), would we consider attacking this AI to be a better play than keeping this AI alive in order to get slightly better Trade Routes? It'll probably only be +1 Commerce for each Trade Route, since we can equally get Domestic Intercontinental Trade Routes.
Not all of these questions may have immediate answers, but they should at least give you something to think about.
Another Thought on Land Reachable by Galleys
Another consideration is that Huts and Random Events were originally going to be enabled, but were disabled at the last minute, presumably without making major alterations to the map's layout of land. Huts, in particular, being "not near the start but also not being too game-breaking" make me think that there would have been islands with Huts on them that would require you to build Caravels in order to get to them... which implies that there will at least be some land that would require Galleons to be able to settler or capture it... which reduces the amount of land available for a Domination Victory pre-Astronomy.
Settler-spamming for a Domination Victory using Galleys might be quite Inefficient
And even if 100% of land is reachable by Galleys, will we really be able to have the logistics with just Galleys to be able to send out a ton of Settlers at the end of the game for a Domination win? Unlike a military conquest, where you can chain your Galleys towards a particular target, spamming Settlers implies that you will be sending Settlers and Galleys in a ton of different directions to remote areas--meaning that you will probably not be able to leverage much Galley-chaining at all in the Settler-spam stage of a Domination Victory.
)
Save's not available for another week.
duh... I forgot that Alan opened the thread early this time.
You should edit the list if we come up with some other good links which are missing.
