2020 US Election (Part 3)

[Ajidica]

Indeed. "I will not be a socialist!". "I will not any Green new deal." "I will not do M4A". He has promised. Negatively.

One can have a pro-active program with clear policies without being a socialist.

 

[Berzerker]

I heard Pennsylvania had 300k+ mail in and they counted about 70k today
If 60-40 is in the ball park thats about 138k for Biden and 92k for Trump.

Trump is up by 2.2m so far but California will remove that lead

 

[innonimatu]

A quarter of a million people are dead from a crisis that nowhere near had to get this bad, and people are worrying about what Biden promised?

Not being Trump may not be enough to win. Which was something pointed out a long time ago.

If it's any consolation we have neither Trump nor Bolsonaro in Europe but stupidity rules on government level here also.

 

[Zardnaar]

A quarter of a million people are dead from a crisis that nowhere near had to get this bad, and people are worrying about what Biden promised?

Trump and Republicans ran a crazy campaign free of governing that was all just cultural war crap, and name-calling. And they might win again.

So this might just be 2004 redux. No Iraq war, but something just as damaging. And Kerry losing didn't mean Democrats ran a far-leftist in 2008.

Also, even the GOP internal polling was off. In favour of Democrats. Something big is off.

Anyway, Democrats lose other Miami Dade seat. Cubans are white Republicans now officially.

Cubans were kinda expected.

Hard on Cuba/Venezuela plays well.

 

[amadeus]

Indeed. "I will not be a socialist!". "I will not any Green new deal." "I will not do M4A". He has promised. Negatively.

Biden’s gotta win the USA vote, not the CFC vote.

Sanders already won in my old poll thread, I think.

 

[Drakle]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323827901217886210

We have some good news for Democrats in North Carolina, where a reporting error by Randolph County is padding Trump by about 30k in our estimate there. They reported both in person (abs one-stop) and absentee mail together, but the needle's still expecting 45k early votes

That's worth a net-30k votes for Biden, which would not be enough to get him into the lead. But it does help him a bit. We're looking for other errors

We also have a similar case in Rockingham County, which is worth another net-10k to Biden--still leaving him quite a bit short.
In the other direction, Orange County (heavily Dem) may have a bug on our end in expecting more IPEV there--but that's not so clear to me

If we add a net-40K to Biden, Trump would still be a heavy favorite but the needle would no longer give Trump >95% chance, because it does still believe there are late mail ballots left to count over the next few days--and we have no idea how many

The Orange County thing is legitimately odd. The county reported fewer early votes (heavily Dem here) than the needle expected, based on the state's absentee file (which was right elsewhere). So it's still thinking there's additional vote here... even though there shouldn't be

This could be a bug on our end somewhere, but I don't see why it would be. I think it is a legitimate possibility that there are another 8k votes here

This is actually something the needle is pretty useful for! Identifying possible reporting irregularities is... kind of important in close elections

Maybe some errors in North Carolina. Still bad for Democrats, but maybe not a look for Trump.

 

[innonimatu]

Biden’s gotta win the USA vote, not the CFC vote.

I guess the DNC will say "we were just not right-wing enough in our campaign!".

 

[Angst]

It might be time to to go play Path of Exile and then go to bed.

I'd just like to mention that I love that game.

 

[amadeus]

I guess the DNC will say "we were just not right-wing enough in our campaign!".

The left-wing of the Democrats and the right-wing of the Republicans are not the only two possible policy positions for Joe Biden.

Bill Clinton won 8 years. Mondale won zero.

 

[Rik Meleet]

Florida for Trump ?
Georgia for Trump !
Result won't be today....

 

[Drakle]

Well if you think Sanders would have won ... Kara Eastman is again underperforming in NE-2. Running as a progressive in a seat which was the tipping point house in 2016, failed to take in 2018 even in the midst of a blue wave, and underperforming Biden this time.

Anyway limited movement in House. So far Democrats have picked up gimmes in North Carolina (they redistricted and reduced the GOP gerrymander bias), while Republicans reclaim Miami House seats. The real House flips will come much later. But yeah, Democrats likely gain limited ground.

Georgia runoff confirmed. Loeffler ton of cash to splash got her the slot to make the runoff.

Democrat Raphael Warnock vs. Republican Kelly Loeffler in January.

Perdue may avoid a runoff with an outright win.

 

[Edmund Ironside]

If Biden loses this election, I am never trusting polls again!

That being said the only state which has been called which was won by single digits in 2016 is Colorado, which Biden wins, so...

 

[innonimatu]

Does anyone know where to find the definitive turnout numbers for the rust belt region? Are they not published yet?

 

[Farm Boy]

They're counting. Follow the AP.

Our senior citizen women are busting ass.

In the good way.

 

[Patine]

If Biden loses this election, I am never trusting polls again!

That being said the only state which has been called which was won by single digits in 2016 is Colorado, which Biden wins, so...

You should have stopped trusting them after the 1948 U.S. Presidential Election, frankly.

 

[adcarrymaokai]

Looking better and better for Trump. I am having 2016 flashbacks.

 

[amadeus]

You should have stopped trusting them after the 1948 U.S. Presidential Election, frankly.

Do weed if it’s true, man?

Read it fast!

 

[Patine]

When does the dark horse hero come in at the last moment and save the United States from both of these crooked, criminal, lying half-senile, senior citizen, out-of-touch White men becoming President.

Oh, I forgot, this isn't really a movie, and certainly not one where the "good guys," win, or there even are good guys. Shucks! :S

 

[Edmund Ironside]

For everyone who is feeling down on Biden & DNC's prospects.
The fact Trump and the GOP is doing well on election night was predictable.
This projects Trumps to be well ahead on the night, but eventually lose once all mail-in-ballots are counted.

 

[adcarrymaokai]

Here is how Bernie can still win:

When does the dark horse hero come in at the last moment and save the United States from both of these crooked, criminal, lying half-senile, senior citizen, out-of-touch White men becoming President.