2020 US Election (Part 3)

[Kyriakos]

Looking at numbers he has over performed.

The problem is so has Trump.

Maybe because Trumpo bothered to campaign.

Tell people Biden has a vast lead, give them another excuse to not bother voting if they are of those groups prone to not bother.
Anyway, still early, I hope the literal b team wins, but yeah.

 

[Zardnaar]

Maybe because Trumpo bothered to campaign.

Dems would have crucified him if he did Trump style rallies or didn't do social distancing.

Just announced a smaller number of young people than anticipated voted. Similar to 2016 number for 18-49 yo.

Republican just admitted their internal polls were wrong as well.

 

[Bamspeedy]

Update to my previous post, as it appears Michigan is a closer race than Pennsylvania, and I got some math wrong (269=Tie, 270=win).

CNN, States not called for yet (who's leading):

New H (Biden), Fox gives to Biden
Virg. (Biden), Fox gives to Biden
Minn. (Biden), Fox gives to Biden
Ariz. (Biden), Fox gives to Biden
Nev. (Biden)
Wisc (Biden)
Texas (Trump), Fox gives to Trump
Flor. (Trump), Fox gives to Trump
Geor. (Trump)
N Car (Trump)
Mich (Trump)
Ohio (Trump), Fox gives to Trump
Iowa (Trump), Fox gives to Trump
Alaska (Trump)

PA, only state CNN called that Fox hasn't. CNN gives it to Trump.
If it stays Trump, Biden needs Georgia or Michigan to win it. North Carolina to tie it.

Current EV totals, based on who's leading: Trump: 284, Biden 254.

Edit; Fixed some math.

 

[Gorbles]

Cause up to now he was drinking cool-aid and talking trash to anyone mentioning how bad the Biden-Harris ticket is.

How bad the ticket is is a matter of some debate, and some opinion. The fact that Biden is in the race indicates the ticket is, at least from a "let's count the votes" angle, not bad. Not spectacular, but not bad either.

You don't like the ticket, that's fine. But there's no need to twist peoples' posts in the wrong direction.

 

[Zardnaar]

How bad the ticket is is a matter of some debate, and some opinion. The fact that Biden is in the race indicates the ticket is, at least from a "let's count the votes" angle, not bad. Not spectacular, but not bad either.

You don't like the ticket, that's fine. But there's no need to twist peoples' posts in the wrong direction.

It's geography. As a basic strategy I can see a AoC/Bernie type doing any better where it's needed in the sunbelt or rust belt.

Either way someone more charismatic would help.

 

[Estebonrober]

"We will win this, and as far as I'm concerned, we already have won it," Trump said in remarks to supporters in the White House East Room.

https://www.npr.org/2020/11/04/931045134/who-won-the-election-we-dont-know-yet

I'm going to claim a "nailed that call" as I go to work out this morning. . . God I hate being right.

 

[Drakle]

Sure, celebrate Biden winning in California.

smh

Even Hillary didn't have help from the coronavirus. This is bleak.

I'm not celebrating it. I'm putting the race into perspective. Biden is generally popular, and a majority did vote for him, unlike Clinton who won a plurality. In the modern era, it is one of the higher ones, and much higher than modern Republicans get. Bush got a smaller victory in 2004. You have to go back to the 80s, a time most of us don't remember/were not born yet to have a bigger Republican victory.

And of course, running up massive margins in California is suboptimal. It would be much better if Democrats won all their states by 53-55%, while Republicans won their races by 90%. But there is no magic button to make that happen. Biden wasn't the candidate California picked anyway, that was Bernie.

Again, the big question is whether it is this narrow because or despite of Biden. There's no way that you can answer that today. You need the total results as well as some days to tabulate them. We'll get that takes by the end of the year. Everybody who does it today, is foolish. And then you can talk about if Sanders would have done better or worse.

I'm going to requote though again and add one more thing:

A larger popular vote with a narrower election result at the same time is just bad for the sanity of the US Political System. Thank you for collecting them though. It bears repeating in this fast-moving thread.

I'm not sure we can ever 100% answer it ever. Elections are inherently small sample sizes in terms of frequency. 2022 and 2024 will have all new conditions and dynamics. And people inherently have pre-existing biases that they use to frame the world. Someone who really didn't like Biden, will crow that Biden sucked, and that is why this happened, and in the alternate universe, nobody can see it was totally better because of X and Y.

More interestingly, is 'What the hell happened to campaign spending'. Democrats disappeared a 100 million into SC and a 100 million in KY and have nothing to show for it. They lost the seat they won in 2018 SC-01. Biden didn't campaign there. It was all Jaime Harrison, Mcgrath and lower House Dems.

Maybe because Trumpo bothered to campaign.

Tell people Biden has a vast lead, give them another excuse to not bother voting if they are of those groups prone to not bother.
Anyway, still early, I hope the literal b team wins, but yeah.

Biden campaigned. Saying otherwise is just lying.


Anyway, a lot of people seemed to immediately forget, that we were all told, that a redshift would happen. That has complicated narratives.

Also, it is funny. Trump is demanding all the votes be counted in Arizona, because he is losing. But they should stop the counts in PA and GA because he is still 'winning'.

https://twitter.com/poniewozik/status/1323860265310498816

Fox saying Trump campaign "livid" about Arizona call, arguing that the network should wait for the outstanding votes to be counted, and who had the Trump camp making THAT argument on their Election Night bingo card?

 

[Rik Meleet]

What happens at a 269-269 tie?

 

[Ferocitus]

What happens at a 269-269 tie?

Kanye claims a flawless victory!

 

[amadeus]

What happens at a 269-269 tie?

The Constitution is very clear about this: Co-Presidents Biden and Trump govern the U.S. separately; the one with the easternmost birthplace governs the eastern half of the United States, and the other the western half.

Birthplaces and divisions are determined by a report to be produced within three months by the Chief Cartographer of the United States, an office currently held by Russell B. Crinksley, an appointee of President Lyndon B. Johnson.

 

[Drakle]

What happens at a 269-269 tie?

It goes to the House. But by House delegations. So the majority of a states' congress people equals 1 vote. Whoever wins the most state delegations wins.

And given the Republican natural Senate advantage, and gerrymandering, that means they win.


Anyway.

Nevada still looks good for Biden.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1323937402889515008

So here's where we are in NV:

There are tens of thousands of mail ballots still to be counted in Clark: 337K have been counted; at least 413K have been returned. So 75K or so. These have dramatically favored the Dems so far by more than 2-to-1. Biden should do well there.
1/2
There are also tens of thousands of provisional ballots in urban Nevada and some in the rurals. Less sure of that mix, but the Clark mail, if it follows the previous pattern, may be enough for Biden.

By the way, Biden's lead is now below 8K as little Lander County reported.

https://twitter.com/NVElect/status/1323939478403076096

That’s it for election results updates until 9:00 am on Nov. 5. Here’s what has been counted so far:

All in person early votes
All in person Election Day votes
All mail ballots through Nov. 2

Here’s what is left to count:

-Mail ballots received on Election Day
-Mail ballots that will be received over the next week
-Provisional ballots

Ballots outstanding is difficult to estimate in Nevada because every voter was sent a mail ballot. Obviously, not all will vote.

Replying to above
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323941823929352194

This is a pretty good set of news for Democrats in Nevada. It's not going to be called when the margin is this narrow, but you can pencil it in the Biden column for the purpose of gaming out where we're going from here

We have less concrete data on what's out in Mi than PA, but there are many reasons to think Biden probably catches up, whether it's the trendline/what we know about their count, or what we see in neighboring states and high % counted MI counties

The PA situation is obviously far from completion, but we do know there are at least 1.4 mlilion outstanding absentee ballots and so far they're 78-21 Biden. That's enough for him to catch up if it keeps up.

Wisconsin is what it is; I have nothing to add to the many tweets analyzing the situation there in recent hours.

Arizona's a mess. Late mail ballots usually lean young/Democratic here, but we also know the outstanding mail ballots were reg. GOP. Not quite sure how to balance that.

And we have a very clear picture in Georgia, thanks to the needle's analysis of the vote by precinct x method--stipulating that there aren't any errors in the GA county data. There's a lot of heavily Dem vote in the Atlanta area left. It's enough to make Biden a narrow favorite

 

[Hrothbern]

The Constitution is very clear about this: Co-Presidents Biden and Trump govern the U.S. separately; the one with the easternmost birthplace governs the eastern half of the United States, and the other the western half.

Birthplaces and divisions are determined by a report to be produced within three months by the Chief Cartographer of the United States, an office currently held by Russell B. Crinksley, an appointee of President Lyndon B. Johnson.

Reminds me about the army where is also described to the last detail who outranks who

I think there is for this election no realistic combination left that would lead to a 269-269

 

[amadeus]

@Hrothbern, if it was not obvious, I made the whole thing up.

It kind of sounds like some silly idea the framers might have put in if they were caricatures of really ridiculous people and not trying to form a system of republican government from the ground-up. Aside from that whole thing where 90% of the people initially had limited rights...

@Drakle correctly stated that it goes to the House.

But the question for me is how plausible is an Electoral College tie? What stops, say, a Trump elector from jumping ship and going over to Biden? Or what if there’s a secret Trumpist in the Biden electors? I’m not really sure how it all works with the elector selector. (That’s tough to say.)

 

[Bamspeedy]

Will trump get 1 electoral vote out of new Hampshire? Its unclear to me of the likelyhood of that. My calculations were assuming Biden gets 1 from Nebraska and Trump gets 1 from NH.

If biden gets all from NH, that 1 point helps, but still need to grab another state (and not lose any, like AZ).

 

[amadeus]

I’m wondering aloud (I mean more so than usual)

Some people thought Trump would be the end of the Republican Party. But even after all this, even if he is not winning in some states he is still competitive in them.

Rather than boding poorly for the GOP, perhaps in the immediate term it will if Trump loses, does it not bode poorly for Democrats?

Could a Republican candidate who is less “divisive” outperform Trump in the same areas and not build an even stronger electoral coalition?

I’m putting “divisive” in quotes because although yes he is personally abrasive, he has done electorally what neither McCain nor Romney could.

 

[Kyriakos]

McCain and Romney weren't running against third rate opponents, and they had the backdrop of the disastrous W Bush era.

 

[amadeus]

McCain and Romney weren't running against third rate opponents, and they had the backdrop of the disastrous W Bush era.

But even if Clinton/Biden are third rate, what is Trump?

 

[Drakle]

I’m wondering aloud (I mean more so than usual)

Some people thought Trump would be the end of the Republican Party. But even after all this, even if he is not winning in some states he is still competitive in them.

Rather than boding poorly for the GOP, perhaps in the immediate term it will if Trump loses, does it not bode poorly for Democrats?

Could a Republican candidate who is less “divisive” outperform Trump in the same areas and not build an even stronger electoral coalition?

I’m putting “divisive” in quotes because although yes he is personally abrasive, he has done electorally what neither McCain nor Romney could.

Well, one counterpoint is, that Trump is so crazy that there is no oxygen for unpopular Republican policy to get attention. Which it is. Their Tax bill. Unpopular. ACA repeal. Unpopular. Opposing the minimum wage. Unpopular. Doing nothing about climate change. Unpopular.

And it works. Trump said in a debate that maybe we shouldn't even have a minimum wage. Now over 60% of Florida voted for a $15 minimum wage and also elected Trump by over a majority.

Meanwhile, in 2012, Obama hammered Romney with wanting to cut taxes for the rich, raise them on the rest, austerity and letting the remainder of the Rustbelt industry just die.

Trump makes everything about a cultural war. That really hardens up the GOP floor, and the culture war style isn't inherently unpopular with Hispanics and Black people like traditional GOP economics is. Lots of young Hispanic men, nebulously hate modern 'woke' media, and internalise that into a sense of politics, instead of just not paying attention to media you don't like. If you look at stuff like Gamergate, that pulled in a lot of minority men, along with the traditional white guys.

Democrats can reach some people with traditional economic points. But so many people are in an alternative reality, and it isn't just Fox News. Facebook is propping up right-wing content to a insane degree.

 

[Kyriakos]

But even if Clinton/Biden are third rate, what is Trump?

Apparently a little above them. Says it all. How else to account for him possibly winning even with covid?

It's almost as if relying on boomers and some of the black minority can win you the primary and lose you the election. Even with the worst epidemic in recent decades.

The gop by and large has less logical voters, but the dem party lacks care in its actual leadership: dnc.

 

[amadeus]

Gamergate

I looked into that for about five minutes when it was “news” and I felt like I immediately lost 10 IQ points.