Lotr5 -- Tactless Darius

Yikes! I didn't even know this thread was here - I don't actually look at the forum index very often, and there was no indication posted in the other LotR 5 thread - and it's already gone through the entire roster up to me? If I hadn't been last, I probably would've been skipped by now.

Anyway, I think this game may well be doomed already. One foe on an island is the worst possible situation. Germany will come for us, and it will be soon; see RBE4 and RBE6 for what happens when the player starts on an island with one opponent on Deity. And if we can't make peace when we want to...

Not that that doesn't mean we won't give it the best shot possible. :hammer: Got it, though I seem to be in feast mode at the moment.
 
Decided to do this one first, since it's on 1.21 which my game is currently set up as and my other two are 1.14. :)

Doomed is an understatement, I think. Egads. We're going to have three cities.

BTW, I see the "Always Renegotiate Deals" preference was on. I'd think we'd leave it off, since it's our civ that insists on a renegotiation if that's on.

Inherited turn: no changes to be made. I don't know why Persepolis went all the way up to size 8 while building settlers, but it can't be helped now.

1725 BC: The worker doesn't need to be on the forest; we can irrigate through the Pasargadae city square to the wheats.

1650: Persepolis grows to 9, builds settler, drops to 7. Orders up a temple, since I can't think of anything else for it to build.

1600 BC: Warrior Code is in, and I guess Iron Working is all we can choose, due in 32 turns. Persepolis swaps to an archer.

Moscow completes the Pyramids this turn! That was fast! Mecca cascades and completes the Oracle!! So much for any thoughts of a 20k win.

1575 BC: Susa founded in the middle of all the wheat. The spearmen at the border are pulled back into the city for anti-flip garrison.

1500 BC: That's all that happened.

If we want to cram in one more city, I guess the spot to do so would be the forest W-NW from Pasargadae. I don't know what to build in Persepolis right now; change it if you want. I let Pasargadae take the irrigated wheat from Persepolis, to get Pasargadae up to size and producing units faster.

http://www.civfanatics.net/uploads4/lotr5-1500bc.zip
 
Wow, we ARE cramped, aren't we? I would recommend a temporary fishing village city, to give us some extra military support. I.e, with it's income, it would mean about 6-8gpt for us even if tiny. After the 'current' turn when Pasararae grows, it can go onto high shields (10spt) and finish the temple in 5 turns. The Pasargadae rax will be done same time. Pers can then crank one archer per two turns, and Pasar about one in 6. Susa should get a walls, now or just after the rax.

I would probably go to 10% research. We may need cash either for going over our allotted support, or for upgrades. Getting to IW a few turns early but being broke won't help us at 40g per upgrade. Because of the rules, unable to come to peace, we need to have a ton of extra units just to start the war. We seem to be five turns into research, so cutting to min now wouldn't throw away much. Alas, that does make the timeframe for war later, so that we can 'see' iron shortly after the war starts, so that we can make denial a key element of the campaign.

The nice thing is that, with a mass of archer and a few spears, Konigsberg will fall like candy from a baby, then we can take to the mountains, and get terrain bonus on defense heading straight up to Berlin. Bring out attack force there and they'll focus on point defense, not on counterattack. This pinning movement will allow us to outflank them and capture either Hamburg or Munich. (I can dream, can't I?!)

Charis
 
Sorry, guys. Got caught up in the game last night (if only Collison would've made some free throws....). And tonight is out. And tomorrow.... So skip me this round. Hopefully, things will get saner for me again soon.

Gothmog, you're up.
Charis, you're on deck.

Arathorn
 
Fiction mirrors reality, the fearless leader of the cause, the high commander, is unable to lead his people during perilous times. When his advisors press for details, he was found at the colloseum watching a sporting event! :lol:

j/k!! For some reason RL has seemed to really kick up a notch recently, for a lot of folks. I was shocked to realize the NCAA finals were already over, and here I was glued to CNN, oblivious to the game. :p

No problemo -- go git 'em Gothmog!
Charis
 
Preturn: We are small, very small. But things could be worse, Germany has mostly crappy city locations. Only Berlin is going to be a powerhouse (well and Konigsberg, but I think of that as a Persian city). Hopefully, they will start up a wonder in Berlin for our upcoming war! If we can take Konigsberg then we can defend that nice mountain range, catapults would be great so we should beeline (snail-line?) towards mathematics after IW. From Konigsberg we should be able to get ourselves some Iron by hook or by crook. Then with Immortals and appropriate resource denial all of Germany will be ours. Actually, when I think of it - it’s a wonder that Biz doesn’t capitulate immediately. He doesn’t fear us sufficiently...
yet.

I look around, consider swaping temple in Persepolis to racks, but it already has one. Then I consider an archer, the city can only generate 6/8 spt at its current size (and we are at 30% lux). Once it grows a bit it should be able to get to 10 spt with a couple more mines. So no changes. I decide to keep research going for now. The sooner we get IW the better for planning purposes. Our initial attack will be with archers anyway and we don't have that many warriors to upgrade.

1475 BC – 1425 BC: Susa grows, its second shield is lost to corruption. It will need some mines to reach 2 spt, so I swap to worker running max food of 5 fpt. That will give us a total of two workers.

1400 BC: An annoyed Biz orders our warrior out of his territory, he doesn’t offer us any tech trading deals. :o

1375 BC: Pasargadae builds racks, starts on Archer. Pasargadae could use some worker help too.

1350 BC: Susa builds worker, starts on racks. Still at 5 fpt.

1325 BC – 1250 BC: Persepolis builds temple, starts on Archer. Damn, the temple doesn’t do enough to lower lux. Oh well, when it grows again next turn there will be more options.

That’s all folks. Since we can’t offer peace to Germany we have to assume the war will be to the death. IMO, we need to do an archer rush on Konigsberg, that will increase our city count by a third (!), then secure our borders and see where we stand. Since we wont have any catapults we will need a decent sized force of archers, as well as some extra spears.

http://www.civfanatics.net/uploads4/lotr5-1250bc.zip

 
As noted previously, we're small, very small, and our first war will be one essentially
to the death. Konigsberg will be the target. We have a little time, but with far less
cities, time is not on our side. Before size 7 for Konigsberg, in any case. The current
plan seems to be to prepare for an archer rush there (as we, gasp, lack iron). Iron
Working, to even see where it is, is 17 turns off.

Only one item by Gothmog puzzles me -
> Persepolis to racks, but it already has one. Then I consider an archer, the city can only
> generate 6/8 spt at its current size. Once it grows a bit it should be able to get to 10
> spt with a couple more mines.

Swapping the two 2f0s to forest makes 10spt and no growth (not a bad thing given our
high expenses on luxuries). The problem is that tile config loses another smiley face.
Plus there's one turn in with only 6 spt, so I don't shift to 10spt yet. I'll reconfig
to 8spt to let the archer finish in 2, as we grow in 2. Either archer or perhaps a
settler after that - we could use another city for troop support. In fact, Perseopolis
can hit 10spt with the hill I mined even at size 6.

[0] -1250: I also like Pasa finishing its archer this round, so another small mm.

[1] -1225: In fact, I like that 5spt at Pasagardae which still lets it grow slowly so
much, I keep it at that level, and order up a spear.

[2] -1200: Perse to settler.

[3] -1175: I give Susa one of Pasa's nice tiles to get 2spt, to get that rax quicker.

[4] -1125: The settler heads to the plains, not the forest, south of Susa. Once it's
founded the forest will be 'in border' for Pasa, or will make for a chop, so I
don't want to waste it.

[6] -1075: Arbela is founded, starts a worker - we'll need to make good use of all our
litle land. And with it's very low shields, we can't afford a 4th rax just yet.

[7] -1050: with no effort needed for foreign affairs, I'm all over the tiles, swapping
each round. A micro's dream (or nightmare).

[9] -1025: German's territory near capital expands, and our warrior scout is now firmly
in German land. He'll try to make it back home, and on first step, sees a sword.
Susa, who just got down to precisely 20 shields left on the rax, whips it now.

[10] -1000: That about does it. We now have one more city than what we started with,
allowing support of 16 units. We already have 15, with one due next turn, and
about one more each 2-3 turns after that. Just this turn I slowed down research.
I'm maximizing shields more than growth or income. If you want Iron Working earlier,
go heavy commerce tiles for a few rounds. Perseopolis is set at no growth because
it's size 7, barely happy at 30% lux, and 10spt. Arbela is due for growth and worker
both in 5, so shouldn't be changed unless you veto the worker. Pasagarde is at 5spt
and moderate growth, Susa is set at 3spt and temporarily LOWER food than it could
work, due to it being borderline happy for a while with the whip memory. The two
workers are away from the capital, having built some mines, working on roads, one
would do well to mine the hill, and the other might road the forest for extra
income.

There are *five* archers in striking distance of Konigsberg, and two spears
in range to cover them! I would wait for about +3a/+2s more due to the strong
sword-based counterattack expected. We'll want enough not just to take the city
but to own the mountains past them, or even better, enough to press on through
to Berlin?? Plus, with Iron Working 7-11 turns away, we'll know our REAL
objective soon enough. Try to bring the warrior home to free up a spear, or else
send it to the one neutral tile behind enemy lines as a diversion. (If we get
kicked out of his territory this round, chances are that's where he'll land)

What if German "pulls a naked Viking India?" If they sneak attack us, we'll do the
best we can, but since I have the path to our city fully sealed off, I doubt they
will do this. If they demand tribute... I would pay. Our success TOTALLY depends on
getting a surprise round 1 attack on Konigsberg. To pull their entire army over
here at a time of their choosing instead of ours may just be lethal.

Hey, ya know what... they have a sword, right? They have very few roads on hills
or mountains. I would bet 50% chance that the iron is at or under Konigsberg,
and 25% chance it's outside Leipzig, 25% at Hamburg. Why would they not only
settle Konigsberg but road the mountain? With Hamburg close, that gives us about
a 75% chance of being able to take iron in the first couple of rounds of a war.
(Maybe we can have on 'office pool', and raffle a trip to Berlin for the winner?)
We'll absolutely need to use archers to take the iron, but we well want to have
about 4-6 vet warriors if we can spare it on hand -- if we time the war to start
just as we discover Iron Working, we might be able to upgrade those in phase two
of the war - the phase where we face their onslaught on fight for our lives to
get THEM to initiate the peace talks!

Save game 1000BC

Good luck, (JMB, then T-Hawk)
Charis
 
Yes, we need the element of surprize at Konigsberg. If Biz decides to go at us it will be a different game. Unlikely because we have a pretty good troop/city ratio. I agree we have a good chance of Iron at Konigsberg, but I didn't want to jinx it ;) . Another office pool question would be: where is Germany's *other* Iron.

As far as the MM of Persepolis. My hope was to be able to reduce lux to 20% and still generate 10 spt. We just finished a temple on my last turn there and at size 8 there was no way to take advantage of the temple, even working a coastal tile for extra commerce. Yes the city could generate 10 spt at size 8, but only at 30% lux. I am pretty sure that at size 9, once we got the other grassland roaded and mined we could have had 10 spt at 20% lux. It's right on the edge. The idea was one turn at present config, finish the archer economically, then try to get to 10 spt at 20% lux. Since you built a settler it doesn't really matter now, and the extra troop support is huge for us, just thought I'd explain my reasoning.

I like this starting position, it's exciting!
 
Personally, I'm just excited that there actually is at least one iron on our little island. That gives us some hope moving forward.

My guess....
Iron on one of the two hills in our lands
Iron in the mountains by Konigsburg

With archers/spears vs. swords, we'll need to really use terrain to our advantage. I have mucho faith in this group of players.

On the plus side, we'll not be dogpiled early. I'll take nearly any human empire against ONE deity country, one-on-one, with no distractions, especially if the human is given time to prepare.

Charis, you've got a nice combat calculator. What's the min number of archers we'll need for a 95+% chance to take Konigsburg on a hill with two spear, one sword, and one archer defending? Let's plan conservatively...

And just to make it really clear.

JMB -- up now
T-hawk -- on deck
Arathorn -- in the hole

Arathorn
 
... Chortles devilishly as he whips out the math... :lol:

To defeat four defense-2 regular defender, fortified in a city on a hill (bumping up the archer you requested to a spear, but making all regulars)...

You need 9 vet archers to have a 95% chance of taking the city.
Six vet archers gives you a 65% chance of taking the city, and the average number of archers needed to take the city in *one* turn is eight. On any one battle, there's a 37.5% chance of winning, and 62.5% chance of losing. (Note, promotions are the only thing not accounted for here, but for the given situation that won't change results significantly, prng notwithstanding)

Less conservatively, if they have only the two 'normal' defenders you would expect for a city smaller than size 6, you need on average 4 attackers to take the city in one turn, and five to have a 95% chance of taking the city. With three regular def-2 defenders, six should take the city in one round, 7 have a 95% chance of winning a siege.

Going the other way, if you let it hit size 7 and add a fifth defender... it gets ugly. 12 vet archers would be needed to take the city, and we would expect to lose 7 of them. Alternately, keep it size 6 but make all four defenders veterans with a rax -- you would need ten vet archers to take the city, losing 5 to 6.

Let's ask about counterattack - how many swords can our vet spears hold off if *we're* defending in the hill city?
Let's assume regular swords. Assume no rax to consider the initial counterattack.

Three spears defending -
... will hold against seven swords in one round
... have a 50-50 chance of holding over multiple rounds w/o reinforcement
... have a 27% chance of losing any individual battle of fresh units
... have an uncomfortable 13% chance of losing the city to a mere 3 swords

4 vet spears can hold off 9 swords in one round, or 6 in a siege.

What if we can take the battle to the mountains? (Will they hit us there, or just go around?)
A single vet spear on a mountain should need 2-3 swords to kill it. If a pair of vets on the mtn can draw attack, 4 swords should die.

Dreaming... what will it take to sack Berlin with size 7 and six regular defenders?
Twelve vet archers have a 90% chance to win there. Switching to swords, it would still take 8, which have the same shield cost. So actually, planning to stick with archers the whole way is not a bad thing (and more realistic for planning).

:crazyeye:
Charis
 
I pretty much spent the entire turn building up for our assault on Konigsberg (the RNG has never really liked me...)

0 - We aready have 2 industrious workers, so with our limited lands, I don't think we need any more. We could however, use a few more MP warriors to free up our vet spears (and we can upgrade them (even though they'll be regulars) if we get iron in the near future...). Change Arb to a warrior. IBT, our conscript warrior gets booted.

Turns 1 - 3: Troop building, not much else.

4 - Not much. Our troops get booted again...

Turns 5 - 7: Troop building. Not much else.

8 - Not much. IBT, Bismark demands tribute (1 gold). As we are under no restrictions about accepting demands, I accept because I don't want Bizzy to declare war on his terms and because I want to continue building up troops... (Besides, we are under no restrictions to maintain the peace for 20 turns...)

9 - Not much.

10 - Not much. I spent almost the entire turn building troops up for our assault on Konigsberg.

I think T-hawk should begin our assault next turn (especially because we are pretty much out of money...). We have about 11 archers and 4 spearmen for the assault. Iron working is due in 4 turns.

Here's the file: http://www.civfanatics.net/uploads4/lotr5_750BC.zip

JMB

BTW, I am going to Death Valley this weekend and will be back on Tuesday. So, if my turn comes up, either skip me or I'll trade with someone later in the rotation...
 
Have a great trip!!

Nice turn, I'm glad to see the continued build up, am relieved that we got a tribute demand rather than a sneak attack (although sheesh, if we had one less gold it *would* have been a sneak attack! :eek: ), and glad we didn't throw away the element of surprise for 1 gold - smart move!

11 archers and 4 spear, with IW due in 4? T-Hawk is up?

Sniff... sniff... what's that I smell?
German sausage being grilled in our newest city of Konigsberg!!
:hammer:

He might well hit it on turn 0, or he might wait 4 more, see the iron, and have probably 2 more archers at the fore. Even with 11, it's almost inconceivable not taking Konig in one turn, and we'll see them take 2:1 losses on their counterattack vs our vets - so probably the bigger need now is spears, not archers? No doubt this will be a very fun turn. :goodjob:

Charis
 
But we don't have swords. We'll *never* have swords or MDI in this game. :eek: Oh, wait! That's because we will hopefully get Immortals! :ninja: Take the :hammer: to them.

With that in mind, we want to minimize our initial archer investment, because we're going to really want to use immortals to take out Germany. They're MUCH better of an investment, if/when we get iron.

Ignoring promotions, while normally not a big deal, is HUGE in this context. Germany is militaristic, getting promotions semi-normally. Plus, if we're talking 9 vet archers, that means 5 casualties, which would guarantee a promotion. Fast units retreat and don't give as many promotions but archers pump up the defenders FAST.

If you don't have time/energy/enthusiasm to code promotions, maybe rerun the numbers assuming vet defenders, which they probably won't be, to give us a feel for how much promotions might change things?

And 8 vet swords have a good chance against 6 regular spears in a size 7 city? That really goes against my intuition. Are you sure of that? Are you accounting for fortified and flatland bonus, too? Just seems way too few to me.

Agreed that 13% (about 1 in 8) is way too risky to leave just 3 spears to defend. I expect, though, that all surviving archers will just camp out there for a while, too, being last bastion defenders to keep the city ours.

Since we're going to have to absorb their entire counter-attack, I'd go a bit conservative and shoot for 10 archers/5 spears in the initial attack. That's probably overkill, but we need to worry about the counter-attack. Germany, since it's sci/mil starts with all archers/spears as its initial units, and, consequentially, is one of the toughest deity AI to rush early (Greece is worse, of course).

Having a few warriors along would probably also be a good investment, too, as they're cheaper to replace than archers/spears and can also provide last-ditch defense and/or gotta-finish offense more cheaply than an archer/spear respectively.

As for the 4 unit estimate, I'm guessing 3 is the most likely -- 2 defensive and one "zone" offensive unit, but 2 offensive units is not at all unlikely.

Arathorn
 
Nice turn, JMB. Enjoy Death Valley. Thanks for the heads-up, we'll cover for you, one way or another.

T-hawk, any chance you can play early this evening, so I can play tonight, too? Amazingly enough, *cough, cough*, RL has grown to absorb my whole weekend until Sunday.

If not, can I switch with you, so I can play tonight?

Arathorn
 
IMMORTALS?!?!?! :eek:

O-M-G talk about tactless, I'm cluess... we're PERSIAN! "Darius" threw me for a loop.

Let me redo Immortals vs Berlin. Vs six defenders, it would take six immortals, not eight swords, to siege the city and win. Or to take the city in one blitz round, it would take 8 immortals, expecting 2 to die.

> Ignoring promotions, while normally not a big deal, is HUGE in
> this context.
I just *knew* you were going to say that! Nope, it's not huge. I'm looking at regular defenders, att 2 vs def 2. Yes, you might see a promotion, still only a medium chance with a mil civ, but it's going to be hurt and a second attack will kill it. It's surely going to make less of a difference than one attacker. Now if they were vets to start out with, the chance of seeing one survive TWO attacks and become elite, healing next turn, gets more significant.
I can see though that v2.1 of my simulater will NEED to have promotion data in there :D

> If you don't have time/energy/enthusiasm to code promotions
... time. Someday though, I will.
> maybe rerun the numbers assuming vet defenders, which they
> probably won't be, to give us a feel for how much promotions
> might change things?
Sure -- that as you say explores the 'asymptotic' case :p

Vs reg defenders I stated: (4 of them, fortified on hill)
- 9 vet archers to have a 95% chance of taking the city.
- 6 vet archers gives you a 65% chance of taking the city
- 8 vet archers on average needed to take it in one turn
Re-running with vet defenders:
- 11 vet archers for a 95% chance
- 8 vets for a 65% chance
- 10 needed to take in one turn.
This is about what I expect... vet spears to start are rougher.
Now let me extrapolate. How many regs will survive those first 4 attacks? 1.8. So let's say 2. If it were a 50% chance of promotion (it's not, it's lower), and if they lost only 1hp in the battle (an underestimate), then you end up with one 2hp defender and one 3hp defender left after the first four attacks. How many more attackers needed to have 95% chance of finishing these guys off? 5.5. So the total is conservatively 9.5.
So I would say that for this example, going reg to vet at start of battle means +2 attackers needed, while accounting for promotions would increase attackers by no more than +0.5.

> And 8 vet swords have a good chance against 6 regular spears
> in a size 7 city? That really goes against my intuition. Are you
> sure of that? Are you accounting for fortified and flatland
> bonus, too? Just seems way too few to me.

It does sound low, doesn't it?
Fortify bonus 25%, city bonus 50%, flatland 10%, roger.

If I do it round by round, and make some estimates, things don't quite match up. So I check the code... gah. Found the problem. The defenders aren't healing properly between rounds. :rolleyes:
Thanks for calling that into question. The reason I missed it is that in my GUI I have a box for "number of pts healed IBT" but don't use it (must have been a fix planned but not implemented).
If they don't get to heal at all, yes 8 swords will kill 6 spears in that scenario.

I'm going to fix this, this afternoon, and as an added bonus, just for you... I'll add in a checkbox to apply promotion logic (which means I need AttackerMil and DefenderMil boxes, and need to track down the exact chances. Two wins in one round is an autopromotion, that's anoter vector to keep track of)


> Since we're going to have to absorb their entire counter-attack,
> I'd go a bit conservative and shoot for 10 archers/5 spears in
> the initial attack. That's probably overkill, but we need to worry
> about the counter-attack. Germany, since it's sci/mil starts with
> all archers/spears as its initial units, and, consequentially, is
> one of the toughest deity AI to rush early

I agree. The good thing is, with three rax cities cranking troops, that won't take long at all. Within 6 turns we could have 12 archers and six spears up front. No reason not to let the 'backline' spears move up too. This goes along well with:
> Having a few warriors along would probably also be a good
> investment, too, as they're cheaper to replace than spears
*especially* since they're proto-immortals :p

I'll get back to you with corrected results later,
Thanks,
Charis
 
While Germany must have IW by now, we don't know how many swords they have. I wouldn't think too many. We know they have been building culture buildings in some of their cities (libraries most likely). Being militaristic they might have even built a racks or two. That means most of the Germany counter-attack will be in the form of archers and spears. A fortified 1 defence unit on a mountain (warrior or archer) will block a spear, do well against an archer, and must run away from a sword. We will want all available forces at the front. Just some more food for thought in case we have to hold out and make another push to get some Iron.
 
Very good points, Gothmog.

BTW, if Arathorn's guess/hope is right that we have iron in one of our few hills, the chance to prebuild warriors will be instantly gone in 4 turns without self-pillaging. If we did have iron in our own territory, it would also mean our first assault could be with immortals not so much archers.

Bottom line - next few turns should see us kick out a few more warriors and spears and build no more archers until we get IW.

Charis
 
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