[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine: War News Thread: Round 6

[Birdjaguar]

IIRC most dams do not have "gates" at all.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Lots of maps included:

Opinion: The path to victory in Ukraine? It runs through Crimea.​

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/06/06/ukraine-counteroffensive-crimea-russia/

 

[banzay13]

Well, then listen to those who take some interest in these matters.

Dams aren't easy to breach. They're designed to hold back massive amounts of water, with safety limit usually being much higher than their common load. Just how much can they endure? While my interest in military history kinda fades after 1945, the most successful aerial dam busting I am aware of was WWII Operation Chastise. In these attacks, RAF used specifically designed "bouncing bombs" that would skip across the water, hit the dam at low speed or stop right before hitting it, sink and only then explode. This is important, because the shockwave propagates much better through water, amplifying the effect and damaging the part of dam under greater stress. Each bomb carried 3000 kg of Torpex (portmanteau of torpedo explosive, it was designed specifically for underwater explosions) and it took two successful hits to breach each dam. And we're talking about significantly smaller dams than Nova Kakhovka.

Storm Shadow is a ground attack cruise missile carrying 450 kg warhead. It's not designed for underwater attacks and would most likely shatter or explode prematurely on contact with water, and from the comparison it's clear that it does not have nearly enough power to cause a breach in a large concrete dam.

Dam was allready damaged after shelling in summer-autumn 2022
And remember the case of the Antnon Bridge. The strikes with HIMARS took two months before any results were achieved

upd. attached a frame from the video, local time 2:46, there is already a spill of water and a single explosion can be seen

 

[saamohod]

And remember the case of the Antnon Bridge.

We do remember the case.
HIMARS failed to destroy it, only punctured a bunch of holes on the top surface. However the bridge ultimately was destroyed by Russian explosives when they retreated.
Same with Kakhovka dam bridge. It was destroyed by Russian explosives before their retreat.

 

[Birdjaguar]

There is likely no way to repair the dam until peace happens so the river will be free running for a long time. All its benefits have been lost. Time for the Ketch bridge to go.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

To get back to this: the term is sluice gates (I had to look up the English term)....

and does this look intact? You can see two whole sections of dam gone.

It certainly can't be used as a bridge anymore. So it must have been Ukraine covering up for their failed offensive by creating a situation for an even more difficult offensive.

Yeah, that totally checks out.

 

[banzay13]

We do remember the case.
HIMARS failed to destroy it, only punctured a bunch of holes on the top surface. However the bridge ultimately was destroyed by Russian explosives when they retreated.
Same with Kakhovka dam bridge. It was destroyed by Russian explosives before their retreat.

It wasnt a fail, just was need keep firing

 

[saamohod]

attached a frame from the video, local time 2:46, there is already a spill of water and a single explosion can be seen

So this must be a proof of what exactly?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1666129084127096851

 

[banzay13]

So this must be a proof of what exactly?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1666129084127096851

It could be proof of anything. depending on what you prefer to believe
In such cases, it is better to wait a couple of days for more information
On Ukrainian resources, there was information that in the evening the White House will present some evidence

 

[Sarin]

Dam was allready damaged after shelling in summer-autumn 2022
And remember the case of the Antnon Bridge. The strikes with HIMARS took two months before any results were achieved

We're not looking at "a little off top" here. Look at the videos, there's deep structural damage. Dams are built to survive much worse things than bridges. A good example here would be 1952 attacks on Sui-ho dam. US dumped tens, maybe over a hundred tons of bombs on the dam in effort to knock out the power to North Korea, and while successful, the dam itself suffered little structural damage and is still in operation.

 

[Yeekim]

The idea that a dam designed to hold some 18 cubic kilometers of water could be destroyed by a missile is certainly peculiar.

 

[banzay13]

The idea that a dam designed to hold some 18 cubic kilometers of water could be destroyed by a missile is certainly peculiar.

It wasnt comlpetely destroyed. Only the top part is was damaged. And in the video, which was taken in the morning right near the dam - you can see that it continues to deteriorate under the influence of waterю
and we have footage taken at night - the damage is not as severe as it is at the moment

 

[EnglishEdward]

IIRC most dams do not have "gates" at all.

I know nothing about this dam.

But it is on a major navigable river.

So it likely had locks with gates to let boats through.

 

[Fippy]

Putin has to be taken out at this point..or we are heading towards major tragedy.
It's nothing but terrorism now.

 

[Birdjaguar]

I know nothing about this dam.

But it is on a major navigable river.

So it likely had locks with gates to let boats through.

Here is a google earth shot of the dam. the boat locks seem to be on the Russian side of the image away from where the dam was destroyed.

 

[Remorseless1]

I know nothing about this dam.

But it is on a major navigable river.

So it likely had locks with gates to let boats through.

I've never heard of such a thing. Would this be like the locks at the Suez/Panama canals use to get ships through an area with variable water levels?

 

[Broken_Erika]

I've never heard of such a thing. Would this be like the locks at the Suez/Panama canals use to get ships through an area with variable water levels?

Essentially, yes.

 

[saamohod]

I've never heard of such a thing. Would this be like the locks at the Suez/Panama canals use to get ships through an area with variable water levels?

Yes. The Kakhovka dam used to have this kind of locks.

[RD] - Russia Invades Ukraine: The Four Horsemen Arrive

How close are you to isolating the Russians on the wrong side of the river? They're still having a crossing at the Kakhovka hydro-plant. The bridge was destroyed there, but they've filled the river locks with rubble. That's what it looked like before Russians:

forums.civfanatics.com

 

[Verbose]

For several days at most. After that it may be easier, depending on the damage to the Russian defensive positions.

Motive and opportunity all say Russia, by applying just the lightest touch of Occam's Razor.

And considering Russia has lied blatantly and egregiously about all manner of things for years – all of which retroactively bleedin' obvious – why on earth would you even begin to think anyone believes anything Russia says these days? Unless they also have ulterior motives for the convenience of officially believing in something Russia claims?

The best you are going to get is that the jury is still out on what happened to NordStream? Precisely because motive and opportunity are unclear. In this case – not at all.

 

[keli]

Serbia backs ammunition shipments to Ukraine in westward pivot​

Serbia allows ammunition shipments to Ukraine in westward pivot

Belgrade has long been a Moscow ally, resisting western pressure on sanctions after Russia’s full-scale invasion

www.ft.com

Aleksandar Vučić has traditionally backed Moscow and refused to align with western sanctions on Russia after its full scale invasion of Ukraine. But in a change of tack, the Serbian president said he was aware of US government reports that Serbian ammunition has ended up in Ukraine via intermediaries and that he had no plans to stop that.
...
Vučić acknowledged that he was walking a tightrope between Moscow and western powers but said that he would not help the Russian war effort. “We joined all the UN resolutions,” he said in reference to UN statements condemning Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. “We join re-export bans, such as dual-use [technology] in drones . . . We won’t be a hub for re-exporting something to Russia.”