[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine: The 7th Thread Itch; scratch it here!

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red_elk said:
Ghost of Kiev draws another star after shooting down 4837-th Russian plane :)

Edit: No OSINT confirmation, neither by Russian sources.
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Don't be so quick to dismiss their claims.
They're big 'ifs'...
but if Ukraine claims it has shot down all those planes,
and if it eventually surrenders unconditionally,
then Russia could include them in the final bill for the war.
Ka-ching!

Of course, if Ukraine is able to extract an unconditional surrender from Russia then they will present their very long list of demands for payment.
 
Oh, if we're just doing low-effort horsehockyposts.
Russia is advancing slightly at different points on the Donetsk fronts.
Here's what's claimed to be a new picture showing Russian incompetence, once again from Novomikhailovka where dozens of their vehicles and crew had been annihilated before.
It seems like they have entered the eastern edge of the city, but at what cost?
Countless lives and vehicles wasted once again.
1.jpeg
 
red_elk said:

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Despite the post's histrionic tone, he's right that there are a lot of lies surrounding the war.
There's no doubt that Western media have lied about Ukraine's performance (fanciful casualty ratios in favor of Ukraine and exaggerated Russian incompetence) and its odds of winning (which are low to non-existent if it means regaining even just pre-2022 territories).

I'm really perplexed about the claims of NATO being weakened. What serious analysis suggests this?
NATO added two valuable members close to Russia's border. (valuable at least if we compare them to, let's say, Macedonia).
It did not lose a single active-duty serviceman.
It got an impetus for members to spend more money on their armed forces and to scale up weapon production.
It forced members to move away from closer economic integration with Russia and instead to strengthen transatlantic relations.
(European countries moving away from NATO to a European-centered alliance and possible integration with Russia was always one of the biggest risks for NATO in Europe, see De Gaulle.)
It got good publicity for, at least, some of its weapons system (HIMARS for example) and for its intelligence capabilities.
It got a good real-life test of some of these systems for further improvement or tactical adjustments.
It got a lot of new intelligence about the fighting capabilities of its second biggest geopolitical adversary.
This adversary just wasted billions of dollars and hundreds of thousands of men to conquer what's in large part rubble now.
In the great scheme of thing, what's the point of Crimea and the Black Sea if NATO controls the Bosphorus?
I don't like to overstate NATO's military might as some people do here. But currently Russia's Black Sea Fleet is hiding in harbor and it's just fighting Ukraine lol. What would happen if it fought NATO? Would it scuttle itself?
Russia's main problem was demographic, and I'm not sure this war will improve it, maybe the conquered people and refugees will outnumber the casualties but this is yet to be confirmed.
I really fail to see how Russia is gaining power vis-à-vis NATO.
It wasted a lot more weapons and vehicles than NATO did.
And a lot more money as a percentage of its economy.
One might argue that denying Ukraine's entry in NATO is a blow to NATO.
But as far as I know, nobody in this thread has yet provided evidence of Ukraine imminent entry into NATO in 2022?
If anything, large NATO members in Europe (France and Germany) were conciliatory towards Russia and thus not eager to let Ukraine in.
And this war just helped make them a lot less conciliatory.

The only analysis that I see working would be that it weakened NATO vis-à-vis other foes. Which might have some truth, but I often see it proclaimed bombastically without concrete evidence.
Military conflict with its largest rival, China, would likely occur over sea (and air) and thus it would be unlikely to be affected by the current depletion of NATO stockpile (which could be resupplied in time for a future war anyway, except if it happened right now).
The only explanation that makes some sense, is that the rest of the world is gaining more power (demographically, economically, militarily) compared to NATO and its allies. But this has been true since decolonization and formation of the Non-Aligned Movement. I don't see how the war accelerates significantly this longstanding trend.
If anything, Russia's current disastrous war in Ukraine makes it look more like a dying empire than a resurgent power.
 
The argument that it's weakening NATO is presumably about the war depleting ammunition stocks
 
Lexicus said:
The argument that it's weakening NATO is presumably about the war depleting ammunition stocks
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need I remind you that Ukraine is NOT NATO member yet. I'd say due to war in Ukraine NATO has become more stronger than ever. Before Europeans were like "do we really NEED NATO anymore?" And this war PROVED that NATO is really needed.
 
Russia lost when Zelensky refused west ride and Ukraine stood the ground.
Russia is now exploring the theory that if something can't be done by force, it can be done with even more force.
It goes beyond rationality and therefore Russia thinks that it is winning. But thats sore loser´s logics.
 
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Even if Russia manages to "win" the war... it doesn't mean its trouble will be over. Most Ukrainian will NOT accept it and will support exiled Ukrainian government like Afghanistan after Afghanistan war. Most Europeans will REFUSE to do any positive diplomatic work with Russia...
 
In my understanding, Putin convinced Russians that they dont need Europeans and becoming Chinese pawn is the "great leap forward".
 
REDY said:
In my understanding, Putin convinced Russians that they dont need Europeans and becoming Chinese pawn is the "great leap forward".
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It really doesn't matter what Putin says to his people. A beggar may convince his family that being poor is good but it doesn't protect them from reality of being... well poor.
 
Kupe Navigator said:
It really doesn't matter what Putin says to his people. A beggar may convince his family that being poor is good but it doesn't protect them from reality of being... well poor.
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Russia is the wealthiest country in the world, it has more resources than Europe and China.
Read Russian history, its the centuries of repressions and expulsions.
Putins regime is pathetic in comparison to Europe, but for Russians its fairy-tale.
 
Sarin said:
The way it is going, the maintenance will be done by Ukrainian drones.
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They are smuggling so much, they have lost track of ways gasoline in Russia is leaving, meaning domestic shortages. We'll see if this measure stops the outflow sufficiently to stem this and secure supply inside Russia. Someone is getting rich on this, but it is not the average Russian citizen, and while it probably benefits Kremlin, it likely benefits others – middlemen and fixers – more (they are driving this, fixing and hustling, and while helpful towards Moscow they don't necessarily follow orders). So, if it doesn't work, and the outflow is still greater than domestic demand, then the Russian government has effectively lost control... That is not expected though. Worth watching for the future still.
 
And today's reports suggest more GOP senators are jumping aboard the "peace train".

GOP senators signal that only way out of Ukraine-Russia war likely is ‘negotiated settlement’
"The reality at this point that we have to confront is that that war ends with a negotiated settlement," said Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), vice chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee. "And the question is — when they finally figured that out — when we finally get to that point, who has more leverage — [Russian President Vladimir] Putin or Ukraine?”

I wonder who really has more leverage now?
The side retreating, with a President who is going all in on borrowed money, or the side with the larger military, nukes and resources that Europe needs? Still, any talk that leads to an immediate cessations of hostilities is for the best.

Sorry, war supporters, I know it's not a view you like. Those game-changing F16's are on their way, any day now, to provide air cover for the tanks and artillery that are on their way, any day now.
 
Vytautas Beria said:
And today's reports suggest more GOP senators are jumping aboard the "peace train".

GOP senators signal that only way out of Ukraine-Russia war likely is ‘negotiated settlement’
"The reality at this point that we have to confront is that that war ends with a negotiated settlement," said Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), vice chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee. "And the question is — when they finally figured that out — when we finally get to that point, who has more leverage — [Russian President Vladimir] Putin or Ukraine?”

I wonder who really has more leverage now?
The side retreating, with a President who is going all in on borrowed money, or the side with the larger military, nukes and resources that Europe needs? Still, any talk that leads to an immediate cessations of hostilities is for the best.

Sorry, war supporters, I know it's not a view you like. Those game-changing F16's are on their way, any day now, to provide air cover for the tanks and artillery that are on their way, any day now.
Click to expand...
Why do we care what minority wants?
 
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