Russia Vs China

[Pangur Bán]

I don't think there's any question that Russia would win if nuclear weapons became involved. However, imagine a war were to break out tomorrow between these too huge military powers, who would win? Would the superior Chinese numbers in manpower and aircraft swamp the Russians, or would a war fuel industrial and economic revitalization in Russia that would enable it to bring down its largely superior military technology for victory?

Try to forget Russia's past greatness and China's future greatness...this war will happen in the present.

So, which,of these powers, America's closets military rivals, if either, would come out on top?

 

[General Joey]

China. 10 character limit.

 

[absolute_sad]

I remember reading a Tom Clancy's novel, think it was "The Bear and the Dragon" that describes a fictionnal war in mid-90 between Russia and China. Of cause it is Tom Clancy, so at the end Americans win, but otherwise it gives a realistic scenario of this war.
If the nuclear scenario is excluded, today it will be very difficult for Russians to stand up. This will require another Great Patriotic War, and even then they're not sure to win. So I bet on China.

 

[SeleucusNicator]

Should we also assume no foreign intervention? I think the US and much of Europe would come down on the side of Russia.

Russia is certainly the weaker power in such a scenario. On paper, it has a huge advantage in terms of its air force and navy, but, in reality, it cannot reliably deploy those forces due to problems with maintenance, fuel, and the such. It has also been selling much of those forces to China, slowly eroding that advantage. Its army is a den of alcoholism and drug abuse, and is bogged down in Chechnya to a greater extent than it should be.

I would say that Russia would need to bring back two of its historic war heroes: General January and General Februrary.

 

[Pangur Bán]

Well Seleucus, why would Russia run out of fuel, but China wouldn't? After all, Russia, if it had to be, could be self sufficient for most essential natural military resources (like oil). Could China?

It's important to remember that peace time economic problems will not necessarily maintain themselves in war time. War time=war economy; mass nationalization; conscription, etc

 

[General Joey]

Hehehe, I'd love to see 1 billion Chinese invade Russia
Did I hear Lebenraum?

 

[Pasi Nurminen]

Should we also assume no foreign intervention? I think the US and much of Europe would come down on the side of Russia.

Russia is certainly the weaker power in such a scenario. On paper, it has a huge advantage in terms of its air force and navy, but, in reality, it cannot reliably deploy those forces due to problems with maintenance, fuel, and the such. It has also been selling much of those forces to China, slowly eroding that advantage. Its army is a den of alcoholism and drug abuse, and is bogged down in Chechnya to a greater extent than it should be.

I would say that Russia would need to bring back two of its historic war heroes: General January and General Februrary.

Russia still has a massive military, and has proven time and again, that when invaded, it can and will resist the intruders at any cost. No nation could take down Russia, not ever, and certainly not now. Even the Americans would have their asses handed to them.

 

[SeleucusNicator]

Well Seleucus, why would Russia run out of fuel, but China wouldn't? After all, Russia, if it had to be, could be self sufficient for most essential natural military resources (like oil). Could China?

I must admit I know next to nothing on where China gets oil from. I assume it has at least some domestic deposits, and likely has nearby Asian nations it could bully into giving it some.

As for Russia, I do not believe that its oil deposits are fully developed, so I continue to have my doubts.

 

[SeleucusNicator]

Russia still has a massive military, and has proven time and again, that when invaded, it can and will resist the intruders at any cost. No nation could take down Russia, not ever, and certainly not now. Even the Americans would have their asses handed to them.

The thing is, the Russians are not facing a western foe. They are facing China, a nation that is more than likely just as willing as Russia is to throw massive amounts of men at a problem until it goes away.

 

[Gelion]

Hehe I bet one nuclear bomb can run Netherlands into the ground.
As for the topic it is impossible for me to tell.
Why would Russia win - superior technology especially if Russia is backed by West (financially). Russia has the technological power to beat the Chinese, she doesn't have enough money to produce good quantity weapons in sufficient numbers. Russian special forces would probably beat the Chinese as well as some regular infantry units. In the case of war I think many "criminals" and "bad officiers" will be shot and discipline will shoot up. Also many Russians nowadays have experience with military hardware and are used to harships. So war will be a blessing .
Why China would win: superior numbers and Soviet-style military. They will sacrifice everything to win. Most of the war will be in Syberia and China (paradoxically) has better ways of reinforcing troops there. Also the Chinese might have weapons we know nothing about that might play a role....
There are more factors, but these are the main ones.

 

[Moss]

No one would win. Invading Russia is futile as well as invading China. China has the advantage in man-power, but Russia has the advantage in a more advanced Navy and Air Force. (at least a bigger Navy and Air Force). Billions would die and in the end no one would gain an inch.

 

[Pangur Bán]

Russia has a population of less than 150 million people, not all of whom are actually ethnic Russians. Morever, Russia's population is falling rapidly (and I mean rapidly!). Russia can no longer regard human beings as an expendable resource.

 

[Pangur Bán]

No one would win. Invading Russia is futile as well as invading China. China has the advantage in man-power, but Russia has the advantage in a more advanced Navy and Air Force. (at least a bigger Navy and Air Force). Billions would die and in the end no one would gain an inch.

I thought China had the world's largest airforce?

Well, that's what was said in Tomorrow Never Dies. Maybe I shouldn't rely on James Bond films.

 

[Free Enterprise]

Russia still has a massive military, and has proven time and again, that when invaded, it can and will resist the intruders at any cost. No nation could take down Russia, not ever, and certainly not now. Even the Americans would have their asses handed to them.

Well it is true that a country will fight very hard to resist invasion however Russia would not be able to win if the opponent were too powerful.

China may have a certain quantity advantage over Russia in terms of a standing army however if a war broke out the amount of potential troops would be enormous. Far beyond the population of Russia which is sadly declining. China well beyond twenty million troops could be mobilized for combat barely breaking a sweat.

Russia has many advantages however they cannot win if China is able to win the war of attrition (which it would).

The GNP of China is actually quite a bit higher than that of Russia.

The Russian Navy would not be able to do much to help stop the invasion of Russian soil.

The Russian bear is large however the Chinese dragon is much, much larger.

That is why Russia warns that if its territorial integrity is threatened it will resort to nuclear warfare. If the United States or China attacked Russia they would lose the conventional war. The U.S. would not fight Russia and definitely not invade it though since the aversion to massive causalities is so strong.

 

[Knight-Dragon]

I'm sure some of you guys are just drooling at such a prospect.

But Russia and China won't war, not when America is still around and calling the shots. In the 60s, Chinese and Soviet forces actually clashed along the borders. It didn't escalate. Today, it'd even less chance of escalating.

The scenario is moot.

 

[Pangur Bán]

I'm sure some of you guys are just drooling at such a prospect.

But Russia and China won't war, QUOTE]

Good thing too

Today, it'd even less chance of escalating.

The scenario is moot.

Anyway there's not much chance of Rome and China clashing either, but there are still "what if" threads about it. At least this situation can theoretically occur

 

[Desmond Hawkins]

It depends on how much warning Russia has. If it is a surprise attack, the Chinese could probably take out the eastern defences easily. However, if Russia has time to prepare, they might be able to build huge morale, and not to mention utilize their massive airlift and transport capacity to move all their best units to the east. My guess is they would just abandon Chechnya completely.

 

[~Corsair#01~]

It really depends on how the rest of the world is alligned. Although assuminmg no intervention, China's victory is more likely.

 

[Riesstiu IV]

I would think that at first it would start out as conventional warfare, but Russia could just annihilate the Chinese population with nuclear weapons since Russia sill has thousands of active warheads.

 

[Desmond Hawkins]

It really depends on how the rest of the world is alligned. Although assuminmg no intervention, China's victory is more likely.

You have to set the parameters. I assume it is a Chinese invasion of Russia. If the Russians have some time to prepare their defences, I don't think China could break them.