Russian Answer to EU- The Eurasian Union

[Omega124]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15790452

Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan have agreed to set up a Eurasian economic union, modelled on the EU, with a target date of 2015.

The three countries already have a customs union but now aim to go further by removing trade barriers.

Their respective presidents signed a deal to create an executive body similar to the European Commission.

Earlier this year, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin denied the bloc would re-create the Soviet Union.

Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in particular are said to be looking at the project.

[...]

Mr Medvedev also did not rule out the possibility that the union would take shape even earlier than 2015: "If the prerequisites are there, we shall move faster, if we are able to."

Under the customs union that came into operation in July 2010, Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan agreed to remove tariffs and customs controls along their shared borders. They will then form a single economic space at the start of 2012.

Moderator Action: Article abridged- please see rule 6b of the OT additional rules.

Russia, or at least Putin, is looking to be very serious on controlling the post-Soviet bloc. Maybe the republics will continue exist on the map, but they would be surrendering any real autonomy they gained since the fall of the USSR with this proposal. Speaking of which, Putin's claims on not trying to recreate the USSR only means that communist ideology won't be readopted.

So, my question is this; how serious would a Russian EU be? Could there be conflict between the two over Ukraine and/or the Baltic republics? Has the first move for a global conflict been set, or am I being a massive fearmongerer right now?

 

[Gooblah]

Russia, or at least Putin, is looking to be very serious on controlling the post-Soviet bloc. Maybe the republics will continue exist on the map, but they would be surrendering any real autonomy they gained since the fall of the USSR with this proposal. Speaking of which, Putin's claims on not trying to recreate the USSR only means that communist ideology won't be readopted.

How did we go from customs union -> surrending local autonomy? I fail to see how any of your claims can be derived from this article.

 

[Virote_Considon]

The only criticism I have is that Russia/Belarus should just be focusing on joining the already existing EU.

 

[Veles]

Ukraine and Belarus will most ceratainly be in Russia sooner or later. Perhaps the Baltics too, if Euro collapses. Asian republics are irrelevant, they're of no use.

But I'd rather have Russia join EU, frankly. I even made a thread about it actually.

 

[Leoreth]

I'm fairly sure the Baltic States would rather die screaming than joining the Soviet Union Eurasian Union again.

 

[Veles]

Believe it or not, it may actually be in their best economical interest to do so, if the sheet really hits the fan. Baltics were very industrially and scientifically advanced part of Soviet Union. And now all they got is financial sector and tourism, and good deal of their population migrate to work unqualified labor in UK.

Call it propaganda whatever you like.

 

[Leoreth]

I'd call it wishful thinking and willful ignorance of their public opinion.

 

[Veles]

I wish them all the best whatever path they choose.

 

[GoodSarmatian]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15790452

So, my question is this; how serious would a Russian EU be? Could there be conflict between the two over Ukraine and/or the Baltic republics? Has the first move for a global conflict been set, or am I being a massive fearmongerer right now?

That's the first problem. You called it Russian EU and I think that's how most people will see it. Russia is bound to dominate every EU like entity in Central Asia which might make smaller states wary. Russia's first priority should be to deal with internal problems, mainly the widespread corruption and white-collar crime or an economic union is not going to work.

 

[Tycho Brahe]

I'm fairly sure the Baltic States would rather die screaming than joining the Soviet Union Eurasian Union again.

Thats also my impression.

 

[wilycoyote]

Well, Cold War part II will be fun!

 

[Pangur Bán]

To me the EU's permanent exclusion of Russia undermines its credibility and ideological raison d'etre. The EU shouldn't be setting up an anti-Russian economic block on Russia's doorstep. It contradicts its role as a "European" block and makes war, something it's allegedly designed to prevent, more rather than less likely. Russians (+Belarusians and Ukrainians) should be encouraged think of themselves as European once again, not "Eurasians"; the EU is for Europe, not just France and Germany.

 

[innonimatu]

So, my question is this; how serious would a Russian EU be? Could there be conflict between the two over Ukraine and/or the Baltic republics? Has the first move for a global conflict been set, or am I being a massive fearmongerer right now?

If EU states are stupid enough to try to prevent the russians from getting Ukraine into their new union, sure. Neither the EU is ready to expand (it's near to breaking apart as it is!) and offer Ukraine any good deal, nor are the russians allowing any potentially hostile large power to take what they regard as one of their core historical lands. If you ask me, it's better for all concerned if the idea of an independent Ukraine is again abandoned, just incorporate it and Belarus again into Russia, leaving the rest of the former USSR republics alone.
But I do suspect that the Russians will rather rebuild a federation of republics and aim to gather back all of the former USSR. Both the southern Caucasus and, if at all possible, the Baltic states also.

And the reason the EU excludes Russia is obvious, it's the same reason why the breakup of Yugoslavia was encouraged: too big, the people in the existing "big countries" in the EU fear it. Think of it: "Merkozy" having to play second fiddle to Putin?

 

[jtb1127]

Can't they call it something with a different acronym?

 

[innonimatu]

Russia's first priority should be to deal with internal problems, mainly the widespread corruption and white-collar crime or an economic union is not going to work.

You got one thing wrong in your analysis, I believe.

 

[jtb1127]

I doubt any of those countries, which are already afraid of Russia, would want to join another union with them. Certainly not after how the last union turned out.

 

[wilycoyote]

I doubt any of those countries, which are already afraid of Russia, would want to join another union with them. Certainly not after how the last union turned out.

Russia can be very persuasive in that part of the world when they want to be.

 

[innonimatu]

I doubt any of those countries, which are already afraid of Russia, would want to join another union with them. Certainly not after how the last union turned out.

Perhaps the russians can include in their treaty that they won't ever have another drunkard president?

 

[jtb1127]

Russia can be very persuasive in that part of the world when they want to be.

Not that persuasive. It was less than 20 years ago.

 

[innonimatu]

Not that persuasive. It was less than 20 years ago.

In case you didn't notice, it was the president of Russia at the time who dissolved the USSR, against the will of both the population (who had massively rejected it in referendum everywhere but in the Baltic states) and the presidents of the other republics.