SGOTM 14 - Kakumeika

[shulec]

This is certainly and Ideal outcome especially if we somehow found philosophy on T119. I guess the holy city isn't that important however...

with the holy city tech steals cost about 26% of the science cost in espionage. And without a religion or holy city tech steals cost about 44% of the science cost in espionage. So 3000 espionage gets us about 6500 science or 3000 espionage gets us about 11500 science. That is why a religion is about the same as 2 infiltrations.

We have a religion that Monty isn't using, so discussing the comparison above is very misleading. So comparing 2 infiltrations to one with the holy city is nowhere near equivalent. It is roughly equivalent to 1.5 infiltrations. If we burn the GS for a GA and lose the Taoism race, then we used a GA with lower yield than later in the game, and wasted a whole infiltration.

 

[bcool]

We have a religion that Monty isn't using, so discussing the comparison above is very misleading. So comparing 2 infiltrations to one with the holy city is nowhere near equivalent. It is roughly equivalent to 1.5 infiltrations. If we burn the GS for a GA and lose the Taoism race, then we used a GA with lower yield than later in the game, and wasted a whole infiltration.

Sure, but are we going to use 1 turn of anarchy to get Judaism? Are we going to either switch to organized religion or whip a monastery and a jewish missionary without a GA anytime soon? I don't think we are.

 

[shulec]

Sure, but are we going to use 1 turn of anarchy to get Judaism? Are we going to either switch to organized religion or whip a monastery and a jewish missionary without a GA anytime soon? I don't think we are.

If we don't trigger a golden age, we sure should switch to judaism, build a monestary, and missionaries for monte, GP farm, and Washington.

Anarchy is painful, but not taking advantage of a change that requires it can often be more damaging.

 

[shulec]

If we get CoL on T101, and if we trigger the GA on T101, what is the earliest we can get the GS?

 

[bcool]

If we don't trigger a golden age, we sure should switch to judaism, build a monestary, and missionaries for monte, GP farm, and Washington.

Anarchy is painful, but not taking advantage of a change that requires it can often be more damaging.

When exactly are you proposing we do this?
Now? before the chops into the hanging gardens? so we can also switch into organized religion?

After the Hanging Gardens is built but before we make a run at philosophy? Making it even less likely we get philosophy and found taoism?

After we get philosophy? Well if it is after philosophy then we are already probably wanting to steal one if not several techs.

Yes we will get the 15% bonus from judaism eventually, but I don't think it is going to count for at least a couple of tech steals.

I'm agreeing my comparison isn't perfect, but no comparison is. (and I did say with no religion...)
With a religion but not a holy city the espionage cost of stealing a tech is 37.4% of the science cost (assuming 50% stationary spy for all the numbers I quoted.

so 3000 espionage = 11500 with holy city and religion
3000 espionage = 8000 with religion no holy city
3000 espionage = 6800 with no religion
assuming 50% stationary spy, open borders, steals happen in Trojan city 8% distance cost, and about a 32% espionage spending discount (which will go down with time as AI pump espionage when there is a big imbalance as Kaitzilla informed us)

 

[bcool]

If we get CoL on T101, and if we trigger the GA on T101, what is the earliest we can get the GS?

These are big ifs (as I think CoL will not be up for trade bait)

If it is, then a switch on T101 still probably doesn't make sense since we will probably want Gems to grow to 8 pop on T101.
So if we switch T102 or T103 with a GA we can get the great scientist on T106 (I don't think T105 is possible but I might be wrong if we starve the city and get the hanging gardens extra pop T105)

 

[shulec]

There is certainly no hurry to switch to Judaism. The missionary for Washington is for pacifism down the road. I suspect we will not run a state religion until after we get philosophy. If we don't trigger a golden age, we will not get Taoism. (Philosophy would be one more tech to steal and push us to consider a second infiltration.) I think OR right now is a poor option.

Edit: We will not likely get the religion bonus for our first 1-2 tech thefts.

 

[shulec]

In your opinion bcool, based on the micro, what turn is the latest turn to make a decision on the GA?

 

[bcool]

I've been generally convinced that a GA is not a good idea.

In your opinion bcool, based on the micro, what turn is the latest turn to make a decision on the GA?

The decision on the GA can be made after an infiltration of the western witches on T103 if CoL is something we can trade for. (When we will know more about the chances of getting philosophy with and without a GA)

If CoL isn't something we can trade for then...
The decision on the GA can be postponed until T105 or later (T105 is the earliest we could steal CoL from the western witches with reasonable odds (by waiting at least 1 turn in the city the odds of mission success go from 70%? to 93% after 1 turn of waiting) I believe unless we whip a spy in gems).

 

[Walter_Wolf]

24 hours have passed. Nobody but bcool seems to be commenting the PPP's anymore, so I'll make the planned moves for T100 accepting bcool's suggestions, press the end button, take a screenshot of the F4 tech screen, and upload.

I'll do it in about 20 - 30 minutes

 

[Walter_Wolf]

Spoiler :

Reference number: 11247
Game: C-IV SGOTM 14
Your team: Kakumeika
Your name: Walter_Wolf
Date submitted: 2011-10-19
Software Version: BtS 3.19
Game date: 350BC
Player race: America
Firaxis score: 435
Session time played (hh:mm:ss): 00:28:03
Total time played (hh:mm:ss): 16:02:22
Game status: Incomplete
Submitted save: Dorothy_350-BC_Oct-19-2011_22-47-14.CivBeyondSwordSave
Renamed file: Kakumeika_SG014_BC0350_01.CivBeyondSwordSave

Right click the Renamed File link above to copy it.
You can then paste it into your team post as the download link for the next player.
News Update: The Wizard of Oz is still alive


Here is your Session Turn Log from 375 BC to 350 BC:

Turn 100, 375 BC: Washington has grown to size 6.
Turn 100, 375 BC: Washington can hurry Aqueduct for 3⇴ with 41ℤ overflow and +1⇤ for 15 turns.
Turn 100, 375 BC: Stone City can hurry Worker for 2⇴ with 27ℤ overflow and +1⇤ for 10 turns.
Turn 100, 375 BC: GP Farm has grown to size 7.
Turn 100, 375 BC: Isengard can hurry Chariot for 1⇴ with 10ℤ overflow and +1⇤ for 10 turns.
Turn 100, 375 BC: Wicked Witch of the North will trade Alphabet, Meditation, Polytheism
Turn 100, 375 BC: Good Witch of the North will trade Alphabet, Meditation, Polytheism
Turn 100, 375 BC: Good Witch of the South/Wicked Witch of the South is the worst enemy of Wicked Witch of the North/Good Witch of the North, Wicked Witch of the East/Good Witch of the East.
Turn 100, 375 BC: Wicked Witch of the East/Good Witch of the East is the worst enemy of Good Witch of the South/Wicked Witch of the South.
Turn 100, 375 BC: Good Witch of the South will trade Alphabet, Meditation, Polytheism
Turn 100, 375 BC: Wicked Witch of the South will trade Alphabet, Meditation, Polytheism
Turn 100, 375 BC: Wicked Witch of the West will trade Alphabet, Meditation, Polytheism
Turn 100, 375 BC: Good Witch of the West will trade Alphabet, Meditation, Polytheism
Turn 100, 375 BC: Wicked Witch of the North will trade Alphabet, Meditation, Polytheism
Turn 100, 375 BC: Good Witch of the North will trade Alphabet, Meditation, Polytheism
Turn 100, 375 BC: Good Witch of the North will trade Iron
Turn 100, 375 BC: You have discovered Meditation!
Turn 100, 375 BC: You have discovered Polytheism!
Turn 100, 375 BC: You have discovered Alphabet!
Turn 100, 375 BC: Good Witch of the South/Wicked Witch of the South is the worst enemy of Wicked Witch of the North/Good Witch of the North, Wicked Witch of the East/Good Witch of the East.
Turn 100, 375 BC: Wicked Witch of the East/Good Witch of the East is the worst enemy of Good Witch of the South/Wicked Witch of the South.
Turn 100, 375 BC: Good Witch of the North will trade Iron
Turn 100, 375 BC: Clearing a Forest has created 24 ℤ for Washington.
Turn 100, 375 BC: Washington will grow to size 4 on the next turn.
Turn 100, 375 BC: Isengard will grow to size 4 on the next turn.
Turn 100, 375 BC: You have discovered Priesthood!
Turn 100, 375 BC: Good Witch of the North converts to Buddhism!

Turn 101, 350 BC: Gems City has grown to size 8.
Turn 101, 350 BC: Gems City can hurry Spy for 2⇴ with 36ℤ overflow and +1⇤ for 10 turns.
Turn 101, 350 BC: GP Farm has grown to size 8.
Turn 101, 350 BC: GP Farm can hurry Spy for 2⇴ with 25ℤ overflow and +1⇤ for 20 turns.
Turn 101, 350 BC: Isengard has grown to size 4.
Turn 101, 350 BC: Wicked Witch of the West/Good Witch of the West is the worst enemy of Wicked Witch of the East/Good Witch of the East.
Turn 101, 350 BC: Wicked Witch of the East/Good Witch of the East is the worst enemy of Wicked Witch of the West/Good Witch of the West.
Turn 101, 350 BC: Good Witch of the South will trade Monarchy, Monotheism
Turn 101, 350 BC: Wicked Witch of the South will trade Monarchy, Monotheism
Turn 101, 350 BC: Wicked Witch of the West will trade Code of Laws, Monarchy, Monotheism
Turn 101, 350 BC: Good Witch of the West will trade Code of Laws, Monarchy, Monotheism
Turn 101, 350 BC: Wicked Witch of the North will trade Monarchy, Monotheism
Turn 101, 350 BC: Good Witch of the North will trade Monarchy, Monotheism

You may wish to copy it to Notepad for reference when you write your turn set post. It includes any entries you added with the in-game Chat facility

A bit of an unpleasant event happened

Spoiler :

I refused, of course. We have a -1 "refused to help us" with him.

As planned, We got Priesthood with the tech slider at 0%, even with two scientist out of the library. That made GP farm and Gems grow. Gems is working an unimproved grassland tile at the moment, but that's on the path to getting a G sci there.

The 2nd g spy is moving towards Trojan horse. The 1st G spy was the only unit moved at T101. I wanted to see the Gandhi's city

Spoiler :

The most important info:

Spoiler :

I put 1 turn into a spy in GP farm, and started one in Gems city T100

 

[shulec]

Here are the available trades:

Spoiler :

Notice that Gandhi/Monte are the worst enemy of Asoka/Ragnar/East witches. The CoL for Aesthetics looks like a pretty fair trade since Monty won't throw slavery in there.

I recommend against the Monarchy trade.

 

[bcool]

Well that is a bit of luck then, we can trade for code of laws.

I definitely think we do this then, aesthetics for code of laws first (this is most important I think for our plans and the AI do value techs less as more and more people get them)

Any other trades?

Is the south still the worst enemy of the north?
If so that is a reason not to trade for monotheism and monarchy. Otherwise I don't see why not. Or are we holding out in the hopes we can trade for construction?

 

[mabraham]

Well that is a bit of luck then, we can trade for code of laws.

I definitely think we do this then, aesthetics for code of laws first (this is most important I think for our plans and the AI do value techs less as more and more people get them)

Any other trades?

Is the south still the worst enemy of the north?
If so that is a reason not to trade for monotheism and monarchy. Otherwise I don't see why not.

Agree trade Aesthetics for CoL. If South is WE of north then we can delay trading with south for a bit - at least until we want OR, if ever. Religions are spreading and the opinion of north can change.

We don't need Monarchy in order to see if AIs are teching Feudalism, IIRC

 

[mabraham]

It seems that at least one of Gandhi and Monte have a "will trade monopoly techs at Pleased" personality.

 

[mabraham]

There is certainly no hurry to switch to Judaism. The missionary for Washington is for pacifism down the road. I suspect we will not run a state religion until after we get philosophy. If we don't trigger a golden age, we will not get Taoism. (Philosophy would be one more tech to steal and push us to consider a second infiltration.) I think OR right now is a poor option.

Edit: We will not likely get the religion bonus for our first 1-2 tech thefts.

Washington, Gems and Isengard are already Jewish from North missionaries.

 

[Kaitzilla]

We can trade Aesthetics for Code of Laws thanks to Walter's trade refusal. Usually I give in to tech demands, but in this case it was the safe play as the west witches were someone's worst enemy. Now we don't have to burn valuable time stealing it


I think Bcool's idea of infiltrating the West Witches right now is the correct idea at Trojan city. Once they have Colossus, they will tech even better. Forges are amazing with gems, gold, and silver.



So, whip a few spys and revolt to caste system? I have a good feeling we will be able to bulb Philosophy if we do this. Pound for pound, a turn of anarchy to change us to caste and a turn to take us back to slavery is worth it for such a massive tech due to trading values.




Sorry I have been lacking on commenting PPP plans . If I don't have a wonder to focus on I'm not very sharp. Usually I don't begin to micro until I form a macro view, and I am usually slow in doing so.

 

[mabraham]

We've spawned a 20% non-GScientist when we were pretty keen on getting a lot of them. One way to catch up is to let the AIs tech the first thing we were going to bulb (Philo) and because we've got a GSpy, use only a fraction of its value to steal Philo instead. The cost is that it is a long time before we get holy-city religious bonuses to espionage. However having an earlier state religion will cost us diplomatically. We can get the 15% state-religion bonus with Judaism in Trojan Horse if we want it and work at it.

If we'd have used our first GScientist to bulb Philo and thought nothing of it, why are we concerned by the idea of instead stealing Philo without religious bonuses for a fraction of the value of a GSpy?

 

[Kaitzilla]

Trading Code of laws for Aesthetics with the West Witches should definitely happen first like Bcool says. I can't count all the times where I traded with someone else first and the "value" of my tech decreased just enough to ruin an even trade.


Also, I think trading Aestethics for Monarchy and Monotheism should be a harmless enough trade with the South Witches. I've found that -x penalties tend to match +x penalties with regards to worst enemies and fair trade bonuses. As long as the trade is precisely equal in value, I've rarely had troubles with worst enemy penalties.

However, since we don't have Currency and gold to add to the deal to make certain the trade is equal, there is an element of gambling involved. The South Witches are worst enemies with the North and East Witches. I don't mind if the east get mad at us, but the north would be bad. How lucky are we feeling?

 

[shulec]

I think we should not trade for monarchy and monotheism. What do we need monarchy for? I don't think we will need longbows for our offensive war. Monarchy will be a lot cheaper later and we will hopefully have currency to balance the trade. I don't think we need Monotheism soon either. I just want to slow the dispersal of techs that don't need to be spread around.