SGOTM 17 - Unusual Suspects

I think we have to assume Revent isn't going to play a set. Should Trystero propose a PPP, or should SteelHorse or Deckhand be up?
Trystero should do a PPP today or tomorrow and play Thursday(?). I can start participating on Friday.
 
OK - I think that sounds OK. I really need to get the test save together anyway. Sorry - visiting family has kept me busy. I will try again now.
 
The test save has (finally) been updated, and is attached. I will put together a detailed PPP.

Question #1 Where do we want Silver City? White or red?

Spoiler :


Pre-PPP ideas that have already been tossed around:

Tech: Switch to Aesthetics, and tech at 0% research until we have enough in the bank to run the slider at 100% (approximately 6 turns).

-or-

Beeline Optics? In this case we would tech MC next. I'm currently leaning toward Aes > Lit to make a play for Parthenon and the GL.

Trade Alpha + Currency to Mansa this turn for CoL, Med, and Poly.

2 pop whip the worker in Pork Central this turn, and have him move to the Silver city site.

2 pop whip the settler for Silver City in Aachen this turn.

Keep running 2 scientists in Aachen or switch 1 or both to mines?

Should worker 3 keep roading toward the copper site? Where do we want the copper city? 1N of the copper would let us put a second city 1E of the furs which could use the fish.

I will work on the micro tomorrow after I get some feedback on where we want to go.
 

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I would go with the white dot, coastal cities could be very advantageous, and it can share the pigs from Pork Central.

I am also favouring Aesthetics & Lit first.

Happy with whipping both cities, we need to work at least 1 mine to get the galley out.

Road towards Rice on the copper peninsula, happy to go with 2 cities in the locations you suggest, there is a lot of food down there.
 
The test save has (finally) been updated, and is attached. I will put together a detailed PPP.

Question #1 Where do we want Silver City? White or red?

Spoiler :


Pre-PPP ideas that have already been tossed around:

Tech: Switch to Aesthetics, and tech at 0% research until we have enough in the bank to run the slider at 100% (approximately 6 turns).

-or-

Beeline Optics? In this case we would tech MC next. I'm currently leaning toward Aes > Lit to make a play for Parthenon and the GL.

Trade Alpha + Currency to Mansa this turn for CoL, Med, and Poly.

2 pop whip the worker in Pork Central this turn, and have him move to the Silver city site.

2 pop whip the settler for Silver City in Aachen this turn.

Keep running 2 scientists in Aachen or switch 1 or both to mines?

Should worker 3 keep roading toward the copper site? Where do we want the copper city? 1N of the copper would let us put a second city 1E of the furs which could use the fish.

I will work on the micro tomorrow after I get some feedback on where we want to go.

I like the coastal location as well. Happy to do some testing on Sat, if we can wait til then. I could give the optics beeline a go. Otherwise proceed if folks are comfy with the Aes path.
 
I will have time to test on Friday. I'd like to see a comparison of Aesthetics/Literature to Optics beeline.

I also prefer the white spot - it's better to share a food resource than to share marble. However, I think we should scout that site to see if there's another resource in the red BFC before making a final decision.

I like the suggested two city sites on the SE.
 
After the Alpha trade, Mansa will still have Construction & Monarchy (and Monotheism)

Construction: 511 beakers
Monarchy: 438 beakers
Monotheism: 175 beakers

Optics beeline
Metal Casting is worth 657 beakers
Machinery is worth 1023 beakers

Literature beeline
Aesthetics is 438 beakers
Literature is 292 beakers

Metal Casting first should allow us to trade for either Construction or Monarchy, whereas we will not get either of these for Aesthetics.
Alternatively, once we have started Parthenon in a hammer rich city (Phantastic?), with Marble we should be able to risk trading Aesthetics for Monotheism, to leverage our great buddhism spread.

So, I think the options are:
1- Optics beeline - better tech trades, but forgoes wonders
2- Literature beeline - worse tech trades, decent wonder attempts

I feel the wonders that we are aiming for by beeling Literature: Parthenon, NE, GLib will help us position ourselves for better tech trades in the long term, by more than doubling (maybe even tripling) our GS production speed, letting us go for some big bulbs.
After Aesthetics, I am happy to pursue the Optics line, so that by the time we have started popping GS's, we will hopefully have met a bunch more AI.
 
I compared the test save to real save. It actually looks much better than I thought.

The differences are:

In the real save we have 7 gold in the bank, in the test 1 gold.

Phantastic:
53/60 hammers into the worker in the real save, 50/60 in the test save.
20/30 food in the real save, 19/30 in the test.

Pork Central:
24/60 hammers in worker in real, 23/60 in test

Otherwise, hammers and food match in the saves.
 
Those are the kinds of things that can be fixed in a couple of turns in the test save, by adding population and terrain improvements and then deleting them after they've contributed to the stockpiles.
 
How many turns would it take us to get Aesthetics and Literature? That's 730 beakers, which is not insignificant, but not a huge delay either, right? Would it delay getting caravels, or would the increased GS speed make up for it?
 
Those are the kinds of things that can be fixed in a couple of turns in the test save, by adding population and terrain improvements and then deleting them after they've contributed to the stockpiles.

I think it's actually close enough for now. There are differences in the beaker overflow as well that are harder to remedy.

How many turns would it take us to get Aesthetics and Literature? That's 730 beakers, which is not insignificant, but not a huge delay either, right? Would it delay getting caravels, or would the increased GS speed make up for it?

At our present state, it will take about 7 turns to save gold at 0% research and then another 6 to research Aesthetics at 100%.
 
13 turns for Aesthetics works out to approximately 8 more turns for Literature, for a 21 turn detour from Optics. Would the GS bulb from Parthenon help the a optics beeline? Regarding trades, with our low hammer production, the forges from Metal Casting don't excite me that much, though we will have both gems and silver for happiness.

If someone doesn't do it first, I will plan to compare Optics date of completion using both approaches on Friday evening.
 
Remember that the estimate is based on our current state. We can run more scientists in Pork Central to speed things up, for example, but we will lose some commerce to maintenance when we settle the silver city.
 
Optic v Aes/Lit
I think neil summarized quite nicely the trade off. Wonders versus Trading.
Moving the discussion up a level and looking at a strategy that involves conquest, I'll try to make the case for early Optics.

Early optics will allow us to meet the other AI sooner. This has several advantages some generic and some particular to a war strategy.

First, the obvious, trading. With mansa as the sole AI met, we will struggle to keep up and have viable trade options. Even If we were to go to Lit and build the GL, we are still going to struggle keeping up with tradable items. With more AI trading partners, we have more options.

Second, the tech path to optics, aligns better with the units we will need to take mansa out when the time comes. Likely to be maces and cats or trebs. Note, we will need other trading partners when mansa's time comes, the longer w/o optics the longer we must be nice to mansa.

Third, meeting other AI will provide us diplomatic tools that can be used sooner to generate diplo points and prevent an AI from getting too dominant - trade embargoes and foreign wars. Also, we may be able to get an AI to adopt Budhism. All of these are easier the earlier we meet other AI.
 
Just a brief update: I have been working on micro for the next turnset, but even for a mini-turnset we need a micro plan that extends beyond that, so my PPP is being delayed until I/we have a more coherent long term plan.

Any comments on my micro (a work in progress, under the "Trystero testing" tab) would be much appreciated. Micro is not my forte. I am trying to make good use of the whip, but this extends the time need to save up for 100% research.
 
I didn't have time to do any proper testing, but I do know based on playing around with the test save that diverting to Aesthetics/Literature delays Optics by at least 20 turns. The payback from Parthenon and other benefits of Aesthetics/Literature do not come soon enough to help get Optics faster.

Thus, I think we have to seriously gamble - if we think it will be a long game, then Aesthetics/Literature is likely better, because the wonders will be worth more than 20 turns of earlier Optics. If we think it will be a medium/shorter game, then the wonders will never pay off enough to offset the later Optics date... and we should beeline Optics.

And, there's always the risk that all we get if we go for the wonders is fail gold.
 
I didn't have time to do any proper testing, but I do know based on playing around with the test save that diverting to Aesthetics/Literature delays Optics by at least 20 turns. The payback from Parthenon and other benefits of Aesthetics/Literature do not come soon enough to help get Optics faster.

Thus, I think we have to seriously gamble - if we think it will be a long game, then Aesthetics/Literature is likely better, because the wonders will be worth more than 20 turns of earlier Optics. If we think it will be a medium/shorter game, then the wonders will never pay off enough to offset the later Optics date... and we should beeline Optics.

And, there's always the risk that all we get if we go for the wonders is fail gold.
I think it will be a long game.
I am concerned "that all we get if we go for the wonders is fail gold". Can we guess if other AIs have wonder resources or industrious leaders based on current wonder dates? [or is this a really dumb question? I haven't looked at the saver recently.]
I expect we will need astronomy to capture all the AIs. But it's a flat map, so no circumnav bonus.
 
I think it will be a long game.
I am concerned "that all we get if we go for the wonders is fail gold". Can we guess if other AIs have wonder resources or industrious leaders based on current wonder dates? [or is this a really dumb question? I haven't looked at the saver recently.]
I expect we will need astronomy to capture all the AIs. But it's a flat map, so no circumnav bonus.

I agree about this being a long game. No wonders have been finished yet in the real game.

I've attached my test until Aesthetics was finished (t85). We have 7 cities, but still not much production. Mansa has 5 cities and has researched Calendar, Aesthetics, and Literature. He had Calendar at the start of this testing set, but not in the real game. He might be teching faster in our test. (Edit: He also researched MC and Philo in the test game. :crazyeye:)
 

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