Spanish general election 2019

And the ghost of Saddam Hussein serves as an adviser to Pablo Iglesias, you heard it here - it's the whole Axis!
 
A few years ago I was vacationing in Madrid and I was woken up one afternoon, after getting drowsy on croquetas de jamon serrano and beer and hearing the march of the workers through the Gran Via. I had no idea what they were on about, and I still don't, but it was a magical moment. And I love Spain. It's the most beautiful place on Earth.
 
No surprises and a rather nice result overall on this one. PSOE won but will require at least two allies to govern effectively. My experience in the country next door with such a situation is that it helps very much in keeping the government somewhat decent.

Vox underperformed compared to expectations, though it had a rather high result in Madrid, consistent with its centralizing nationalism. The PP collapsed to less than half the seats it had held. Much of the PSOE's gains seems to have been from Podemos, which I find unfortunate but not surprising.

On Catalonia there will probably be progress to some peaceful resolution of the conflicts within Spain. The government will most likely have to be supported by Catalonia's Esquerra Republicana (Oriol Junqueras, its leader, remains a political prisoner in Spain at the moment) and having them with influence on the government is the most resounding defeat possible for the right-wing parties. The PP was nearly wiped out in these elections there, after the way it crushed the referendum. The basques were even less forgiving: the national right-wing parties failed to elect a single representative there, while the explicitly pro-independence parties there collected half the vote and won well over half the seats from the region.
 
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It will be interesting to check how distribution of seats in the Senate will turn out. PSOE should easily get a majority, as it won on most regions. But there are also seats appointed by the regional assemblies and those were not elected today. Altogether a new government on the left will have more than the 3/5 necessary there to change the constitution or the laws about the powers of the regions. But it will narrowly lack that majority on the more important Congress. And the three parties that form the blocking minority are very, very much against any changes.

Kind of convenient for the PSOE, actually, as it would be split over the issue of giving more powers to the regions or supporting an independence vote, and now can claim that it is beyond its power to advance it. But the issue can still be forced.
 
100% scrutinized, may change one or two seat due to absentee ballot

PSOE 123 deputies
PP 66 deputies
Ciudadanos 57 deputies
Podemos 35 deputies (actually they are 42 if we count the 7 of En comú podem)
Vox 24 deputies
ERC (Catalan left nationalist) 15 deputies
En comú podem 7 deputies
JxCAT (Catalan right nationalist) 7 deputies
EAJ-PNV (Basque right nationalist) 6 deputies
EH Bildu (Basque left nationalist) 4 deputies
CCa-PNC (Canarian nationalist) 2 deputies
NA+ (Coalition in Navarra of PP, Ciudadanos and UPN) 2 deputies
Compromis (Coalition of Valencian regionalists and green parties) 1 deputy
PRC (Catabrian regionalist) 1 deputy

Now the deputies have to to vote in the congress in order to elect the President. 176 votes are needed.
If 176 votes are not obtained, they will have to vote again two days later. In this second vote simple majority is needed.

Presumably, PSOE and Podemos will reach a government agreement which will sum up 165 deputies.
They will need support in first round from catalan nationalist parties (very unpopular outside Catalonia or Basque Country rigth now ) or at least another 21 deputies abstaining in second round.

Other option is a Government agreement with Ciudadanos, which means 180 deputies , but Pedro Sanchez's relationship with Albert Rivera (Ciudadanos) is not at its bets right now.
 
Is there already info on how votes moved between parties compared to the last national election ?
Also on in how far the big loss of the PP is explained ? How much of PP went to Vox ?
Who benefiited most of the high turn-out ?
 
Hrothbern said:
Is there already info on how votes moved between parties compared to the last national election ?
Also on in how far the big loss of the PP is explained ? How much of PP went to Vox ?
Who benefiited most of the high turn-out ?
Click to expand...

I haven't read it yet about moves between parties, and honestly I don't trust too much this kind of explanations, they are mere conjectures
Just in people around me I can see moves from EH Bildu to PSOE or traditional PP voters that have move to EAJ-PNV, no reports will explain this.
In my environment, I have seen an intense fear to a PP-Ciudadanos-Vox government and people voting accordingly

Regarding PP, let me explain my point of view.
PP has not been able to rid of the shadow of the corruption and they have done a campaing based on national unity, where ciudadanos and vox have been more convincing.
Any other kind of proposals have not been credible.
On the other hand IMHO they have choosen a candidate who is terrible, a guy how faked his curriculum, that due to a bureaucratic business which I don't understand at all, has avoided a trial in which the legality of his Master's degree and his law degree would have been investigated.
As personal opinion, I think that he is an idiot sponsored by Aznar.
 
It's probably too soon to say anything about voter movements. These things take time to calculate, no? The most interesting movement is probably the one of "I have voted" -> "abstain from voting".

But I am surprised that apparently some parties would be willing to form a government together with vox. I mean, come on!
 
The big question is if PSOE will Pact with Ciudadanos (center right) or will try some complicated combination with Podemos, catalan moderated indepentist (ERC) and some other. Last time the second option didn't worked quite well AFAIK.
 
One might think Bank of Santander should (literally) mind their own business. But in Spain, almost everything is (literally) Bank of Santander's business :D
 
mitsho said:
It's probably too soon to say anything about voter movements. These things take time to calculate, no? The most interesting movement is probably the one of "I have voted" -> "abstain from voting".

But I am surprised that apparently some parties would be willing to form a government together with vox. I mean, come on!
Click to expand...

Not if you prepared for it :)

Anyway... the news of the day is the result... the general reactions of politicians ... and the first thoughts in the media on future coalitions
The analysis is more newsworthy in the follow up !
I am always a bit impatient in trying to understand what really happened.

Being a total outsider on Spanish politics...
With a lot of fragmentation changes starting 5 years ago...

What I see so far is a PM and a Social Democratic party that did well, despite difficult circumstances... the improvement of mimimum wage, the pensions, the sexual harassment.... and was rewarded.... a PP (the party of the ousted PM Rajoy) that eroded further... and a vox that got 10% only. Other rightwing parties moved up a bit to vox slogans.
That 10% enough to make coalitions more difficult (only 90% left to do that), but not the 20-30% level that really changes the political landscape and hinders/influences traditional coalition forming. Whereby it should be noted that all regional splinters do add up to that 10% of vox, hindering traditional bigger parties to form simple 2-party coalitions. But that is still no real issue if there are enough regional splinters that understand (their politicians and base) how to compromise towards responsibility for a country into a coalition.
So.. through my Dutch spectacles, and favoring Social Democracy, AND believing stable governments are good, allowing for more long term thinking.. for governing in normal relation to the people, instead of ad hoc hyping.. I am as such happy :)

Then I see this article of the BBC telling a more gloomy perspective with "Spain's exhausted electorate now limps towards municipal, regional and European elections in a month's time"
Spain is a country that has been deeply divided between right and left since the country's civil war back in the 1930s.
The idea of a far-right party in Spain's parliament - possibly even in government - for the first time since the death of fascist military dictator Francisco Franco, sickened large sections of Spanish society.
You hear a number of voters saying it is not so much that they voted for the Socialists, but rather that they voted against Vox.
In the end, Vox managed to win 24 parliamentary seats, roughly what polls had predicted, but the result fell far short of the political earthquake they had hoped for.
Arguably their most dramatic achievement was to splinter Spain's political right, leaving the normally powerful centre-right, the now rather ironically-named Popular Party, humiliated.
Spain's exhausted electorate now limps towards municipal, regional and European elections in a month's time.
Deep political divisions seem to be the new normal in Europe - just take a look at France, Italy or the UK.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48088597
Click to expand...

I did not get the impression of a limping Spain...
just the normal process... and ofc the Catalonian independence events after the last national elections took influence.

Regarding that limping... do I miss something ?
 
Useful to note that Rajoy was the favourite (tool, or rather bird of a feather) of the eu; recall how they covered his dumb behind during the Catalan crisis.
Not that ultimately the catalans didn't defeat their own self; if you aren't even willing to risk stuff then don't ask for independence.
 
Kyriakos said:
Useful to note that Rajoy was the favourite (tool, or rather bird of a feather) of the eu; recall how they covered his dumb behind during the Catalan crisis.
Not that ultimately the catalans didn't defeat their own self; if you aren't even willing to risk stuff then don't ask for independence.
Click to expand...

Every PM in the EU will get a kind of "natural" support of all other PMs. They all face similar issues from a similar position. A kind of job solidarity.
I am however quite sure that even the centre right and liberals of the EU MEPs and EU PMs were not that happy with Rajoy because he failed to handle the "situation" in a harmonious way.

My main take away from both Brexit as Catalonia is that you need more than 50% + 1 vote to make such very big decisions. And you need imo a second chamber and/or a cool-down, a time lock, as well before confirming with a second vote.
In fact the normal procedure in most European countries if you want to change the constitution: a qualified majority, often passing two chambers, securing that the decision is supported enough... is robust enough to survive the normal year on year volatility of opinions.
It makes no sense to change your constitution hence and forth every 4-5 years after a new government is chosen: flip-flop-flip-flop etc.
And separating or merging a country, or a Brexit (or joining the EU) is a much bigger change than most standard constitutional changes. Simply because you cannot flip-flop that easily.
Even a 60% majority feels meager to me.
 
It's a bit tricky. Either you take a preliminary vote on what to do and you get a Brexit-like vote that leaves so much unclear it fills the debate section of papers for years to come.

Or you have a fully worked out plan that you may have developed in participatory settings or at your own desk. But it fails as you didn't find the sweet spot and a (unholy) coalition forms based on "I don't want that specific thing". And then you spent a whole lot of money for nothing.

Happened to us here regularly, both cases. The topic is about merging two small cantons (city and country). The argument against the first type is that you don't actually know what you are voting on.

So my point is: damned if you do, damned if you don't. A truly skillful politician will find her or his majorities, however large they are, but it's very tricky.

Unless of course you don't actually want the change, but are only doing it for career reasons...
 
mitsho said:
It's a bit tricky. Either you take a preliminary vote on what to do and you get a Brexit-like vote that leaves so much unclear it fills the debate section of papers for years to come.

Or you have a fully worked out plan that you may have developed in participatory settings or at your own desk. But it fails as you didn't find the sweet spot and a (unholy) coalition forms based on "I don't want that specific thing". And then you spent a whole lot of money for nothing.

Happened to us here regularly, both cases. The topic is about merging two small cantons (city and country). The argument against the first type is that you don't actually know what you are voting on.

So my point is: damned if you do, damned if you don't. A truly skillful politician will find her or his majorities, however large they are, but it's very tricky.

Unless of course you don't actually want the change, but are only doing it for career reasons...
Click to expand...

But if you're called David Cameron you'll mess it up even in the last case.
Didn't Cuidadanos specifically rule out a coalition with the PSOE?
 
Hrothbern said:
My main take away from both Brexit as Catalonia is that you need more than 50% + 1 vote to make such very big decisions. And you need imo a second chamber and/or a cool-down, a time lock, as well before confirming with a second vote.
In fact the normal procedure in most European countries if you want to change the constitution: a qualified majority, often passing two chambers, securing that the decision is supported enough... is robust enough to survive the normal year on year volatility of opinions.
It makes no sense to change your constitution hence and forth every 4-5 years after a new government is chosen: flip-flop-flip-flop etc.
And separating or merging a country, or a Brexit (or joining the EU) is a much bigger change than most standard constitutional changes. Simply because you cannot flip-flop that easily.
Even a 60% majority feels meager to me.
Click to expand...

And if that had been the standard for joining the EU or changing its treaties, it wouldn't exist today. So you can see how those of us who believe the EU is bad and should be done away with will find the same standard it was used to create it quite enough. Rather that submit to being locked in constitutionally now that it was created without any especial care for (and indeed often against) democratic processes.
 
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