Trump Indicted!
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There's no doubt that Trump will lose the popular vote, perhaps with a wide margin.
The question is whether the electoral college/system used in US Presidential elections, can make up for that disadvantage? Personally I don't think it can; Trump needs to win a lot of middle ground traditional conservative Republicans and make them turn up on election day to win the required swing states and I reckon enough of them, has had enough of him and MAGA hijacking their political party of preference.
But I also believe that should Biden win his second term, the following President in 2028/29 will be the Republican nominee. It depends on how tight a grip Trump and MAGA will still have on the GOP (I hope they just implode and disappear from political influence, like Sarah Palins Tea Party).
The question is whether the electoral college/system used in US Presidential elections, can make up for that disadvantage? Personally I don't think it can; Trump needs to win a lot of middle ground traditional conservative Republicans and make them turn up on election day to win the required swing states and I reckon enough of them, has had enough of him and MAGA hijacking their political party of preference.
But I also believe that should Biden win his second term, the following President in 2028/29 will be the Republican nominee. It depends on how tight a grip Trump and MAGA will still have on the GOP (I hope they just implode and disappear from political influence, like Sarah Palins Tea Party).
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EnglishEdward
Deity
Yes, but how does that compare with the proportion of USA adults who think that Joe Biden would be unfit to be a President because [of his age or for other reasons]?
Seems to me that most US adults may conclude that neither candidate is fit to be re-elected POTUS.
And when faced with two unfit candidates, which way will the US voters in the swing states vote?
I don't pretend to know.
The 50% who are saying that a conviction would make him unfit are just the Democratic voters who were going to vote against Trump anyway.
I think that once Trump is out of the picture, MAGA will fade away and the GOP will have to find a new foundation. That might be hard given the extreme positions they have taken recently. Yes the EC sucks.
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warpus
In pork I trust
What will it take to get Trump out of the picture though? The guy's been breaking whatever laws he wants and nobody's done anything about it.
Maybe if he rips a live fetus out of a pregnant woman's body and has intercourse with it on live TV? But then people will just say that's fake news.
Call me a cynic but we will probably have to wait until he passes. And what happens with maga at that point is anybody's guess but you can 100% be sure that it will be a circus.
Maybe if he rips a live fetus out of a pregnant woman's body and has intercourse with it on live TV? But then people will just say that's fake news.
Call me a cynic but we will probably have to wait until he passes. And what happens with maga at that point is anybody's guess but you can 100% be sure that it will be a circus.
If Trump is not re-elected, he will have significant court time that will limit his public influence. His voter base will slip away. Now of course he could declare in 2026 that he is running for president in 2028 as a way to defer his court sessions, but he will be just too old by then. All those double cheeseburgers will catch up to him.
The Republicans won the election ion 2000 and 2016 doing exactly this... so yes, the EC certainly can, and has, made up for the Republicans losing the popular vote.
I still think that a Biden win is going to result in another violent incident by Republicans, however, I am unsure where MAGA voters go next after that settles. They will have to go somewhere and they certainly aren't going to just give up and withdraw from participating in politics/elections. It probably depends on what Trump and/or his family does next. If they stick around in politics, its possible that the MAGA voters just stick with the Trumps. He has plenty of relatively young children and in-laws who can take over the mantle.
MAGA itself might fade as a brand, but the voters aren't going anywhere, so they will be looking for a new movement to join. Just like how the Tea Party faded and MAGA took its place... the exact same thing will happen if and when MAGA fades... it will just be rebranded as something else with a new popular figure(s) at the helm, just like Palin and Glen Beck were replaced by team Trump.
warpus
In pork I trust
I guess I'm too cynical to accept that all of this will just go away, with your supreme court seemingly hijacked by the movement as well. From what I've read anyhow.
With Trump gone they'll just find another figurehead to raise up to cult-like status and half the country will vote for him, doing anything they can to prevent a Democratic win, even if it means putting even more nails in the American democracy experiment.
I'm not so sure... Trump's age isn't a factor for his supporters, no matter how old he gets. I suspect that if Trump loses, he will just declare the result illegitimate again, and quickly announce his plans to run again in 2028. That way he can keep criticizing the criminal trials as "election interference", and his supporters can keep going along with that narrative.
In any case, "age" in-and-of itself seems like a fake factor anyway. Its just an excuse people give to avoid stating their more superficial reasons for not liking/wanting/supporting a particular candidate.
With the age issue for example, as I've said previously, Biden's problem isn't necessarily that he is old, its that he looks old... essentially, Biden isn't as physically attractive as a younger candidate. So then anytime he has a gaff, or a senior moment, it gets magnified and pounced upon as a reason to not vote for him... when the real reason is just that he's not attractive (because he looks old). But for obvious reasons, people will likely be reluctant to admit (even to themselves) that they dislike a candidate because they are ugly, fat, short, etc... it makes people feel shallow.
That's all of course putting aside the numerous practical, policy and ideological reasons people might actually have for not favoring a candidate.
MAGA has several internal factions: old Tea Party, white racists, Christians, Christian nationalists, gun lovers, crazy conservatives and die hard Trump lovers. I think that collation will split if Trump loses. He holds it together. The GOP billionaires will have to find a new leader. Without "Daddy" I do not think the Trump kids will stay in politics. Their private lives are too messy and fraught with items that could mean legal tangles they would rather avoid.
I do not think that the GOP can move further right, so post Trump they will either stay where they are or move a bit more towards the center.
warpus
In pork I trust
If Biden was younger, they'd just find something else to focus on. It doesn't matter who the left-leaning candidate is. The right-wing cult machine will figure out their talking points and focus on those, and their supporters will eat it up. I've seen this play out in other countries as well. If it's not the age that they focus on, it will be something else.
Trump will "age out" and decide that it is too taxing for him keep at a losing game. If he is in court, that alone will severely crimp his lifestyle and adoration rallies. He doesn't care enough about his supporters to stay in a game that is too difficult and is already a two time loser at.
Yes. The adult Trump sons aren't exactly bright, to put it mildly. Donald Jr's testimony at the NY fraud trial, exposed that he basically didn't understand his own job within the Trump Organization, which was quite hilarious and cringe.
This is sadly not explained or substantiated in any way.
Just because they are out to get him does not mean he is not guilty.
Al Capone was also a murderous criminal and the FBI was out to get him, for good reasons. He was smart and the job was a tough one, but tax evasion proved the best path. DJT is a criminal.
We've been saying that for around 15 years now and they still keep finding ways to do it.
Marla_Singer
United in diversity
Yet all these folks see the left-wing as a common enemy that must be destroyed, that's what unites them and that will remain the case. Maybe I'm influenced by the way things are going on in my home country, but if anything, everything that disintegrates democratic societies is only becoming more pronounced. People are increasingly gullible about the trash they see on social networks, which is increasingly manipulated by foreign powers. Without a major event, I can't see why this would change.
Its not a losing game if he can continue to leverage it to stay out of prison, stay dominant/relevant in the 24-hr news cycle and most importantly, to continue grifting money out of his supporters..
Gori the Grey
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I think a sizeable number are going somewhere: back to being non-voters. They are Trump voters specifically. He's sold them on this "I'm persecuted by the elites in American society just like you are" line. They identify with him personally, not politically. And they will be uninterested in any one who is "just a politician."
