Ukraine Crisis News Thread

[red_elk]

I dont know. But apparently parts of ukrainian army has been slaughter all of sudden after it almost finnished off the rebels. I think he is talking about some type of cluster bombs....

It's about Illovaysk battle which turned disastrous for UA. According to Ukrainian parliamentary commission they lost about a thousand troops killed, wounded and missing.

Here's Ukrainian journalists version of events (in Russian)


Link to video.

Car is getting under fire at 5.35, people on video were eventually captured.

In brief, they blame general Homchak in betrayal. They were blocked near Illovaysk and there were negotiations with "the Russians" about letting Ukrainian forces to retreat without fight. "Russians" asked for 15 minutes to finish talks "on highest level", but general said he doesn't have time and ordered to break through encirclement by force. Which turned into slaughterhouse for Ukrainian army.

Rebels, in turn, claimed that they offered Ukrainians a free passage, but on condition that they will leave all heavy equipment and vehicles (tanks, APCs, etc.) They agreed, but instead of leaving equipment they tried to break through encirclement on their vehicles. After that rebels opened fire.

Both versions are pretty close, not much contradicting with each other.

 

[red_elk]

Today is a day of parliamentary elections in Ukraine



According to rebels, Ukrainian forces in Donbass are actively preparing for advance which may start in next few days.

 

[Mechanicalsalvation]

While Russian media outlets have been excessive in their portrayal of all Ukrainian political parties as fascist, there are nonetheless several extreme populist and far-right parties competing in the elections. The far-right party Svoboda, for example, is polling at about 4 percent (PDF) of the vote and could easily reach the 5 percent cutoff. More worrying is the Radical Party, headed by Oleh Lyashko, a current Rada member and vigilante, which has polled at 7 to 12 (PDF) percent in recent weeks. The party has links to the far-right neo-Nazi Azov Battalion, and Lyashko has been involved in abductions in the conflict in the Donbass. Yet if Timoshenko and Poroshenko cannot form a government together, the Radical Party may be a logical choice for coalition building.

http://america.aljazeera.com/opinions/2014/10/ukraine-parliamentaryelectionspolitics.html

 

[calad]

http://america.aljazeera.com/opinions/2014/10/ukraine-parliamentaryelectionspolitics.html

We will see results in couple of days. Lets see how many fascist are elected.

 

[Yeekim]

According to rebels, Ukrainian forces in Donbass are actively preparing for advance which may start in next few days.

... and according to Ukraine, Russia is gathering new forces around Donetsk, Debaltseve and Novoazovsk.

No matter which side intends to break the ceasefire, it would make sense to prepare by spreading disinformation about opponent intending the same.

I'd say it would make sense for Russia to try and put immediate pressure on the newly elected government, whereas I can't quite see what could Kiev hope to achieve by another attack. We'll see. I hope there's still some chance the ceasefire will hold.

 

[Kyriakos]

Civil war tends to attract foreign powers, which tends to result in parts of the country leaving.
Or the country not awarded more land - eg Greece in WW2, which got just the Dodecanese that at any rate would not remain Italian and neither would it be granted to Turkey which declared war a few weeks before the war officially ended

I don't see how Ukraine will not lose the eastern provinces as well. And afaik the south is not really tied to the new governments of it either.

 

[calad]

Civil war tends to attract foreign powers, which tends to result in parts of the country leaving.
Or the country not awarded more land - eg Greece in WW2, which got just the Dodecanese that at any rate would not remain Italian and neither would it be granted to Turkey which declared war a few weeks before the war officially ended

I don't see how Ukraine will not lose the eastern provinces as well. And afaik the south is not really tied to the new governments of it either.

I dont see at all how this is a civil war, Kharkiv oblast has over 40% of Russian population and there has been pretty much none of military action unlike Donetsk. Russia has funded everything from soldiers to weapons, without this there would be no war.

While waiting official result...

Link: brain drain is hitting hard on Russia, in this year already 203 659 people have emmigrated.

 

[red_elk]

... and according to Ukraine, Russia is gathering new forces around Donetsk, Debaltseve and Novoazovsk.

Last time I checked, Ukraine confirmed withdrawal of Russian forces from Donbass and border regions.
My source for rebels claims, are personal statements of Strelkov and Mozgovoi.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZ8klStLn6Q

No matter which side intends to break the ceasefire, it would make sense to prepare by spreading disinformation about opponent intending the same.

Cease fire effectively doesn't exist. With ballistic missiles flying around and Ukraine using cluster bombs against residential areas of Donetsk.

"(Berlin) – Ukrainian government forces used cluster munitions in populated areas in Donetsk city in early October 2014, Human Rights Watch said today. The use of cluster munitions in populated areas violates the laws of war due to the indiscriminate nature of the weapon and may amount to war crimes."
http://www.hrw.org/news/2014/10/20/ukraine-widespread-use-cluster-munitions

 

[LamaGT]

... and according to Ukraine, Russia is gathering new forces around Donetsk, Debaltseve and Novoazovsk.

No matter which side intends to break the ceasefire, it would make sense to prepare by spreading disinformation about opponent intending the same.

I'd say it would make sense for Russia to try and put immediate pressure on the newly elected government, whereas I can't quite see what could Kiev hope to achieve by another attack. We'll see. I hope there's still some chance the ceasefire will hold.

Yes, in response to Ukrainians amassing troops close to those areas. According to rebel sources, Donetsk is encircled from 4 directions.

Considering that with the current "ceasefire", the Ukrainians shell the cities every day with everything they've got, while the rebels try to take border areas, the writing is on the wall, the war will restart. The question is whether it's going to happen before or after the winter.

What Kiev might do is using its advantage in manpower, unified command and supply lines, and of course more weaponry, to try one last attack before the winter in order to have a better bargaining position, and redeem its honor of course. The alternative is for the soldiers to spend a whole winter in ditches.

I agree that it doesn't make much sense for either of them to attack, but the rebels know that they'd lose badly right now if they were to begin an offensive. They're the equivalent of a faction in Mount & Blade, a lot of commanders who do what they want and are more or less powerful based on their renown.
Out of the two, Ukraine is the only side which has some sort of shot at winning an offensive.

Although of course the solution that makes most sense is to accept the status quo and end this peacefully, perhaps give a few more of the occupied cities (Kramatorsk, Slavyansk, Mariupol) to the rebels in exchange for at least nominal subordination.

 

[red_elk]

Exit polls show Poroshenko bloc getting most votes.
Radicals have more or less similar support as they had in 2012, Lyashko ~7%, Right Sector 1% or so, Svoboda ~5%.
Hopefully latter will get under 5% cutoff.

 

[Yeekim]

"(Berlin) – Ukrainian government forces used cluster munitions in populated areas in Donetsk city in early October 2014, Human Rights Watch said today. The use of cluster munitions in populated areas violates the laws of war due to the indiscriminate nature of the weapon and may amount to war crimes."
http://www.hrw.org/news/2014/10/20/ukraine-widespread-use-cluster-munitions

Apparently, neither Ukraine nor Russia have acceded to the treaty that bans them and both sides use them at will. Rotten stuff.

 

[Winner]

Exit polls show Poroshenko bloc getting most votes.
Radicals have more or less similar support as they had in 2012, Lyashko ~7%, Right Sector 1% or so, Svoboda ~5%.
Hopefully latter will get under 5% cutoff.

Looks like the rumours of a Fascist coup in Ukraine were a tiny bit exaggerated after all... what a surprise

 

[red_elk]

Apparently, neither Ukraine nor Russia have acceded to the treaty that bans them and both sides use them at will. Rotten stuff.

You forgot to mention that only Ukrainian side is blamed by HRW for using them against Donetsk residential areas. Didn't see where they blame Russian army for killing civilians.

Looks like the rumours of a Fascist coup in Ukraine were a tiny bit exaggerated after all...

I was talking about facts, not rumors. That maidanist coup was supported by ultra-nationalist groups which still have significant support in Ukraine. Since 2012 this support seem to be increased, though official data are not yet present.

 

[Agent327]

Unsurprisingly, (ultra-) nationalism seems to be on the rise in both Ukraine and Russia. Meanwhile, neither side (Ukraine, rebels, or Russia) seems to be taking the cease-fire very seriously. No news of negotiations, apparently.

 

[Darza]

You forgot to mention that only Ukrainian side is blamed by HRW for using them against Donetsk residential areas. Didn't see where they blame Russian army for killing civilians.


I was talking about facts, not rumors. That maidanist coup was supported by ultra-nationalist groups which still have significant support in Ukraine. Since 2012 this support seem to be increased, though official data are not yet present.

Seriously man, you are being caught with "honest unawareness" of your about nearly every of your statements. But ignored it and just keep spamming usual stuff like "you forgot to mention; didnt see where; i was talking about facts, not rumors; etc". Even the pretty disputed from the start report of HRW you had posted show you wrong:
"While not conclusive, circumstances indicate that anti-government forces might also have been responsible for the use of cluster munitions, Human Rights Watch said." =! "Didn't see where they blame Russian army for killing civilians.". You know, if you arent intentionally lying, and had revealed what your statements was based on your "honest unawareness" about stuff you're discussing - you're start to learn and listen to others, instead than just forget the mistake and keeping same line. Thats how the work with facts, not rumors is happening in reality. Otherwise you're getting a zero credibility, as with that lame trying to keep a face for "fascist coup" false claims despite all odds. You you will be pushed hard enough - you will say "ok, i was unaware what they arent fascist, and what it wasnt a coup (despite im claimed what i know whats going on very well), but what difference it make?", correct? But alas, guy who claims following Strelkov & Mozgovoy as a source of information... Strelkov, who happily and proudly claimed an airplane frag, and then tried to remove a message, unaware of google's cash, eh. But well, you also happily posted a video about shot down plane, presenting as another Russian victory just few minutes after incident in this certain topic, just to keep next few pages busy by "disproving" what such claim was ever made, absolutely forgetting about your own post. Oh, i meant "honestly unaware" about your own post on a subject.

 

[red_elk]

Even the pretty disputed from the start report of HRW you had posted show you wrong:
"While not conclusive, circumstances indicate that anti-government forces might also have been responsible for the use of cluster munitions, Human Rights Watch said." =! "Didn't see where they blame Russian army for killing civilians.".

Excuse me... So, you think that the statement "Anti-government forces in Ukraine might be using cluster munition" is equivalent to "Russian army is killing civilians"? That's quite a loose interpretation, to say the least. No, from HRW report it's pretty clear that Ukrainian army is responsible for using cluster munition in residential areas of Donetsk, thus showing complete disregard for civilian lives. Whereas rebel forces, not to mention Russian army, are not being blamed for that. Would be strange for them to use cluster bombs against the city they are controlling, no?

But alas, guy who claims following Strelkov & Mozgovoy as a source of information...

The source of information for my statement explicitly starting with "According to rebels...". Are Strelkov and Mozgovoi good enough to qualify as rebels by your standards?

Strelkov, who happily and proudly claimed an airplane frag, and then tried to remove a message, unaware of google's cash, eh.

I'm sorry, he didn't. He never posts in Vkontakte, looks like you've been caught with "honest unawareness". Or simply repeating the info from Ukrainian media without verifying.

 

[Darza]

Excuse me... So, you think that the statement "Anti-government forces in Ukraine might be using cluster munition" is equivalent to "Russian army is killing civilians"? That's quite a loose interpretation, to say the least. No, from HRW report it's pretty clear that Ukrainian army is responsible for using cluster munition in residential areas of Donetsk, thus showing complete disregard for civilian lives. Whereas rebel forces, not to mention Russian army, are not being blamed for that. Would be strange for them to use cluster bombs against the city they are controlling, no?

You forgot to mention that only Ukrainian side is blamed by HRW for using them against Donetsk residential areas. Didn't see where they blame Russian army for killing civilians.

Ok, i will have to bold the words im about here. By now there is now point to discuss actual data provided by HRW research, as you had not dig enough into their report, and used a Russian-translated version of it (most likely, as it was notorious for omitting this mentioned part too, and claimed what "HRW report blamed only Ukrainian side for cluster bomb usage (incorrect translation, at least, but quite suspicious error)"). Deal is about managing a data, your handling of it is very suspicious, and full of such phenomena. "Anti-government forces in Ukraine might be using cluster munition" is not equal to "Russian army is killing civilians" (thats the meaning of =! afterall), but its even less equal to "You forgot to mention that only Ukrainian side is blamed by HRW". Incorrect jump from "that only Ukrainian side is blamed" to "Didn't see where they blame Russian army", should be clear enough.

The source of information for my statement explicitly starting with "According to rebels...". Are Strelkov and Mozgovoi good enough to qualify as rebels by your standards?

I'm sorry, he didn't. He never posts in Vkontakte, looks like you've been caught with "honest unawareness". Or simply repeating the info from Ukrainian media without verifying.

Not sure by now, as you contradicting here. You mean what some sources of them are reliable, and some are not. But you're using only trusted sources, and not wrong ones. Ok. You're posted here a video report (http://forums.civfanatics.com/showpost.php?p=13334799&postcount=2152) of shot down plane claimed as another victory for rebels (few minutes before it was reported by media worldwide), acquired from the trusted sources, as you're using them only. That report was identical to a "fake source" one. So your "trusted sources" actually use a "fake sources" data, or "fake sources" use a "trusted sources" data? What difference between them if the data is the same? If they share a data, what make one source "fake" and other as "trusted"? Or all what you meant is what some certain figurehead who pose as speaker actually doesnt have some account somewhere (that post a correct data still), and it actually have some other human being to operate? That doesnt change anything on a subject, aslong it match the data. Deal is what rebels claimed a plane, and you reproduced a claim in this certain topic. They claimed it under Strelkov's name, as info from him. Did they framed him, attributing the info to him, while it had source in somebody else - is a question for the court actually, and useful for his personal defenders there only (very possibly he was indeed unaware about, and somebody else posted it faking under his name, so not to be blamed for, and somebody else is in charge for it). But that info pre-dated report of missed civil airliner, and was removed as soon the airliner missing become known. And you too shared it here. So, either you're using a fake data sources about rebels, and they misguided you on the certain subject (and thus most likely on some other ones too, hardly to believe what this one was the single case), or you falsely claiming what they did not what they was caught with. Despite you proved what they actually did with your own action.
So its up to you, either they are some fake guys, who post some crap posing as rebels, or they are real ones, but caught with attempt to delete their own words (and possibly not caught some more times too). In both case not a good reliable sources imho. And if all the question is "if some figurehead from video is real guy or talking head, and some page is actually managed by some young lady using his account" - that doesnt matter at all then, its a team work.

 

[red_elk]

Ok, i will have to bold the words im about here.

Very interesting
So, you've bolded half of my statement:
"You forgot to mention that only Ukrainian side is blamed by HRW for using them against Donetsk residential areas."
Apparently trying to misrepresent what I was actually saying.

Do you really not understand that the problem here is not in using cluster munition per se, but in using it against populated areas, putting civilians in danger? Which only Ukrainian side is being blamed for, by HRW?

Not sure by now, as you contradicting here...

Ok, so this is apparently a communication problem. I'll try to explain in simple terms.

I made the following statement:
"According to rebels, Ukrainian forces in Donbass are actively preparing for advance which may start in next few days."
And, as a source for this statement, gave a Strelkov video.

This statement is factually correct and doesn't contain anything about reliability of Strelkov as a source.
But the video is an evidence reliable enough to say that Strelkov (rebels) indeed made that statement.
I really hope it is clear by now, because I can't simplify it further.

 

[Darza]

Very interesting
So, you've bolded half of my statement:
"You forgot to mention that only Ukrainian side is blamed by HRW for using them against Donetsk residential areas."
Apparently trying to misrepresent what I was actually saying.

Do you really not understand that the problem here is not in using cluster munition per se, but in using it against populated areas, putting civilians in danger? Which only Ukrainian side is being blamed for, by HRW?

"While it was not possible to conclusively determine responsibility for many of the attacks, the evidence points to Ukrainian government forces’ responsibility for several cluster munition attacks on Donetsk."
"Human Rights Watch also called on Russia to make an immediate commitment to not use cluster munitions and to accede to the cluster munitions treaty."

You now trying to equal "the Ukrainian side was blamed for using cluster munition in populated areas" what is essentially what HRW report is about; to "the Ukrainian side only was blamed for using cluster munition in populated areas", while there is no such claim made in it. And as you're tend to stress on that only - either is a bad misread, or attempt to make it look as if it true by people who wouldnt actually read the report. Its not the first example of such behavior by Russian media, they cut unneeded parts of reports (UN, OSCE etc), and present it such way. While the falseness of presentation could be showed in few minutes - majority of readers wouldnt bother to do even most basic research of original article and will believe the claim. Its cheap, but it work, usually. Problem here is in using of words, as neither of us are using cluster munitions (i hope). And some using of words could looks as "some unintentional error, what make a big difference". Usually such things are better to be clarified and corrected if possible, as in case of such errors happening too often - it could lead to a feeling what they are not so unintentional.

Ok, so this is apparently a communication problem. I'll try to explain in simple terms.

I made the following statement:
"According to rebels, Ukrainian forces in Donbass are actively preparing for advance which may start in next few days."
And, as a source for this statement, gave a Strelkov video.

This statement is factually correct and doesn't contain anything about reliability of Strelkov as a source.
But the video is an evidence reliable enough to say that Strelkov indeed made that statement.
I really hope it is clear by now, because I can't simplify it further.

Ok, ill just quote your message there, as you're lazy enough to even click on the link. There is nothing about ""According to rebels, Ukrainian forces in Donbass are actively preparing for advance which may start in next few days."", as there is some huge miscommunication happening (lets see it this way).
You got the video from some reliable rebel sources, and post it here with some comments about. If you also posting stuff from fake sources - it would make some difference then, but you have to deal with losing a trust after such confession. The data you posted is also matching the data posted by "fake Strelkov's account", so if you're actually using a reliable sources, then the people responsible for fake account are also using them, so making them much less fake, at least on same level as you are.

Ukrainian officials are blaming Russian air forces in shooting down their SU-25 plane.
Just now, reports about another AN-26 transport plane shot down.


Link to video.

What's surprising, is constant cheerful reaction of locals in such videos.

- What was it?
- An aircraft.
- Well, thank God...

 

[red_elk]

Ok, ill just quote your message there, as you're lazy enough to even click on the link. There is nothing about ""According to rebels, Ukrainian forces in Donbass are actively preparing for advance which may start in next few days.""

This is a several months old message, what it has to do with the current discussion?
I said Strelkov and Mozgovoi were the source for this message:
http://forums.civfanatics.com/showpost.php?p=13525841&postcount=5188
not for some arbitrary message from the middle of the thread.

You got the video from some reliable rebel sources, and post it here with some comments about.

I posted a video with a plane crash in Donbass, which IMO was an important news.
And added that there are "reports about another AN-26 shot down". In other words, described all known information available minutes after crash. What's wrong now with this message to bring it up?

If you also posting stuff from fake sources - it would make some difference then, but you have to deal with losing a trust after such confession. The data you posted is also matching the data posted by "fake Strelkov's account", so if you're actually using a reliable sources, then the people responsible for fake account are also using them, so making them much less fake, at least on same level as you are.

There was no "fake Strelkov's account". The VK account in question didn't even claim to belong to him.