3.13: Missreporting of battle odds

[troyDoogle7]

I noticed that when I was fighting against the zulus, specifically their impi, catapults and horsemen, when I was Holy Roman, would often report that I had significantly higher probability of wininning however I would lose more than 80% of the time when I had higher odds. i was only when I had 4 points or more that I would routinely win.

Having not seen this before, as generally pre 3.13 they were reporting accurately, and the odd occasion the results would go against the odds, now it seems to be the rule, that you need to add a few extra points to their score!

 

[jray]

Could you post a savegame file and specific description, please? Not much we can do without those.

 

[Phristen]

I've noticed that naval estimates are often misreported too. Had a few ~95% battles, and lost them. I'll try to get you a save if I encounter it again.

 

[SwordofStriker]

Just because you lost a fight, or even a few fights at 90% + odds doesn't mean anything has been misreported.

A 99.9% chance of victory is not a guarantee. Should you expect to win? Yeah, absolutely. Will you always? Nope. That's how random number generation and statistics work.

 

[Phristen]

It's been happening quite consistently throughout the game. Ah well, guess I'm just having some incredibly bad luck.