I'm still not seeing it. Imagine my capitol gets captured, and my civilization's research is now cut in half. Wouldn't I just discover technologies half as slow? (To use the numbers I was using above, I'm pulling 12 research instead of 15. Wouldn't Sailing get 6 beakers instead of 12, with metal casting getting 3 instead of 7, Priesthood getting 2 instead of 5, and Writing keeping its 1 for maintenance?)
I just don't see the risk of a dark age.
First: In the Discovery/Adoption model, Discovery isn't done by lightbulbs. So Discovering a Tech and Adopting a Tech are two different mechanics (hence the two threads)
Second: I don't see the negative modifiers coming into play in your examples.
Here's how it works:
Civ has 25 lightbulbs to give out per turn. 4 Techs:
Sailing +7 lightbulbs, -1 use it or lose it, -1 no fishing, net +5
Metal Casting +8 lightbulbs, -1 use it or lose it, -1 no iron or bronze working, -1 classical age, net +5
Priesthood: +5 lightbulbs, -1 use it or lose it, -1 no polytheism, net +3
Writing: +5 lightbulbs, -1 use it or lose it, net +4
So after the negative modifiers, your 25 lightbulbs becomes 17 lightbulbs.
Now, you go to war. Before anything else happens:
Sailing +7 lightbulbs, -1 use it or lose it, -1 no fishing, -1 war, net +4
Metal Casting +8 lightbulbs, -1 use it or lose it, -1 no iron or bronze working, -1 classical age, -1 war, net +4
Priesthood: +5 lightbulbs, -1 use it or lose it, -1 no polytheism, -1 war, net +2
Writing: +5 lightbulbs, -1 use it or lose it, -1 war, net +3
So, now your 25 lightbulbs are now 13 lightbulbs.
You lose your capitol, which was providing 10 lightbulbs:
Sailing +4 lightbulbs, -1 use it or lose it, -1 no fishing, -1 war, net +1
Metal Casting +4 lightbulbs, -1 use it or lose it, -1 no iron or bronze working, -1 classical age, -1 war, net 0
Priesthood: +3 lightbulbs, -1 use it or lose it, -1 no polytheism, -1 war, net -1
Writing: +3 lightbulbs, -1 use it or lose it, -1 war, net +1
So now you're in danger of losing Priesthood; Metal Casting isn't going anywhere, and Sailing and Writing are hanging on for dear life.
Let's just say that if you survive, you better hope the techs you discover next are fishing, one of the metal workings, or polytheism. If you next discover The Wheel, you're not going to be able to support it.
Try this on for size.
I want sailing as fast as possible, so I push priesthood down to a minimum. Sailing comes in 5 or 6 turns. Then I emphasize Priesthood, which I get in another 5. Hooray!
Or, I keep both Sailing and Priesthood at normal levels... now I'm not getting ANY technologies for 12 turns. But, at that point, I get priesthood and sailing back to back.
Isn't it better to get 1 thing in 6 turns and another thing in 6 turns, than to wait 12 turn for both? What do you gain by postponing that first thing 6 turns? You divide your research for nothing.
Unless in turn 3 you discover Iron Working. See, here's where it gets tricky. You're spiking Sailing and keeping Priesthood low, but then Iron Working shows up. Do you abandon Priesthood, abandon Iron Working, or stop putting all your lightbulbs into Sailing?
Conversely, if you're dividing equally, you can work all three slowly, or work Iron Working quickly while letting Priesthood and Sailing fall a little bit (since you're Ancient Age it doesn't matter if they hit 0 since you haven't adopted them) or hang even.
That's where the strategy with the division of tech research comes into play. By default, the Automated Tech Advisor would balance them so that when a new Tech shows up, the first scenario doesn't occur. It's only when you push a Tech that you have a risk. If neither Sailing or Priesthood are important enough to get in 6 turns, you might as well let them both take 12.