yavoon said:
wacken do u have anything similar for units? or is it assumed ur making units constantly and would only interrupt making units if the payoff was quick enough?
also I was wondering if there is any thought in ur games on the surity of the win as well as the speed or do u assume ur gna win all ur games and are just interested in how quickly u can do it.
As i said, for units it is very difficult to decide their return on investment.
In conquest games, building units is the default. I can pretty properly estimate how many tuns i will need to conquer the world if i just produce units. This estimate makes the expected game length to be used in the decision what other investments to make. The simple but most important example is that you stop research all together when you reach a tech level needed to conquer the world and then spend all gold on upgrading and shortrushing units.
In science games it is about the difficult balance between building units and libraries. It is difficult to have numbers for this. It is one of the few things (i prefer to go by calculations) i do by feeling, estimate and experience.
The picture of return on investment is always there though and even though i can't use it with numbers here, it does help me realise not to build libraries to early. You can make simple calculations like how fast do you expect to conquer cities with an x number of units and how many units do you expect to lose per city, but still, it would be very difficult to calculate the real reward as your conquered cities are gonna breed into ICS land but will take a lot of time to do so. While also it takes quite some time for your units to conquer the land (compared to a building that is operational as soon as it finishes)
I did do some attempts to make such calculations in the past, but decided i had to do with feeling, estimate and experience.
In GOTM games there is no real doubt about the win. They are never above deity except once, and those that are deity+ are always made easy with a good start. Although i did lose one gotm where i was going for 20k and was attacked while i had only 1 defender. And i am aware there is always the small risk of being attacked during the rex phase. It is a microscopic risk though, as this 20k game is the only time i was attacked before i expected it.
Self made games i didn't play a lot. Basically i have had 2 periods of playing my own games. The first was when i just started (PTW) and practiced a while to beat deity. The second was when C3C was there a while already and i wanted to beat SID level. obviously, in both cases winning was not the least bit sure when i started. By the year zero however, it should normally be clear if i am gonna win.
Lately i don't play any self made games because my interest for the game has faded and i always like to think about games much more than to play them. Playing the games is just to test and confirm the things i have thought about.
You can sometimes make some calculations with units. For example, that first attack. Very often, i would upgrade 15-20 swords around 1000BC. If they are upgraded from warriors or not doesn't matter, they are worth 30 shields each. So if i buy 20 swords for 600 shields total and i expect to conquer my closest neighbour with it, you can try to give a value to that conquest. For example, his land contains 2 luxury resources. That is basically 2 gold per turn per city larger than the amount of luxes you already have for you. Then, you can add the value of any wonders, you can add the value of the techonology you are planning to extord for peace. You can add the value of the citizens over 1 in the captured cities (being conservative, just value them 20 shields each, as they could at least be used for rush building) and the value of cities (food surplus + free unit support if you need it + gold, 1 from commerce and 1 from wealth)
These are not accurate calculations, therefore, as i said i have done some in the past but now don't use them in my games. It is nice to do some of these just to get the idea.