1.c4 c5
2.Nc3 Nf6
3.g3 d5
4.cxd5 Nxd5
5.Bg2 Nc7
6.Nf3 Nc6
7.O-O e5
8.d3 Be7
9.a3 0-0
10.Bd2 Be6
11.Rc1 f5
12.Be3 Rc8
13.Na4 b6
14.b4 e4
15.Ne1 Nd5
16.bxc5 Nxe3 (if 17. fxe3, 17..Bg5)
This is a good rule of thumb, I think. b4 seems like the natural plan in this position, but it would have probably been stronger if Be3 had been played in one move rather than Bd2-e3. Anyway, I'm still not sure what's going on in this position exactly...