Art of the Possible

It's forty minutes to midnight and I am very disappointed in you Immaculate.
 
Might be able to make it through the first turn without anyone killing each other. Nice.
 
I know right?
 
Order revisions will no longer be accepted beyond this point. Needless to say, mobilizations similarly are not welcome from here on out. New orders will still be accepted for an amount of time to be determined.
 
Hype increasing.
 
Orders will be in tonight, it's hard to know without a specific time
 
Those last minute orders will have until tomorrow morning to get in. After around 9:00 AM EST tomorrow morning, no more orders will be accepted. As previously stated, those who fail to get in orders will have been assumed to have dropped the game.
 
To: World
From: Ukraine


The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry presents three recently-discussed treaties for those it spoke to sign. Due to the tardiness of the previous minister, who has been dismissed, we understand if one is unable to sign and/or ratify these treaties until next year.

The Danish-Ukrainian Trade Treaty of 1900
1) The Kingdom of Ukraine will provide the Kingdom of Denmark and Norway with the agreed upon amount of Fuel per year.
2) The Kingdom of Denmark and Norway will provide the Kingdom of Ukraine with the agreed upon amount of Economic Points and Supplies per year.
3) Both parties will reassess the terms of the Contract after five years.

The Ottoman-Ukrainian Trade Treaty of 1900
1) The Ottoman Empire and the Kingdom of Ukraine will lower mutual import duties and tariffs on Ottoman and Ukrainian agricultural and industrial goods.
2) The Ottoman Empire and the Kingdom of Ukraine will lower mutual port duties.
3) The Ottoman Empire and the Kingdom of Ukraine will establish consulates to both expedite mutual private investment and visitation between them.

The Greek-Ukrainian Trade Treaty of 1900
1) The Kingdom of Ukraine will lower import duties and tariffs on agricultural and industrial goods from the Hellenic Republic of Greece.
2) The Hellenic Republic of Greece will provide advisers for commercial and industrial development.

His Majesty King Kasimir gladly signs all of these treaties.


If the treaty must be modified or there exists any objection, please contact us privately.
 
Due to external pressure from interested parties, the Ottoman Empire is unfortunately withdrawing from the Ottoman-Ukranian Trade Treaty of 1900.
 
Message to Britain

King Michael II Braganza is holding a conference to meet with labor leaders and industrialist regarding Portuguese economic and industrial production. Given our economic ties with Britain and their interests in our industry, we request that an advisory delegation be sent for consultation purposes.

Message to Spain

King Michael II Braganza would like to meet with a Spanish delegation to discuss such areas as boarder security and trade. Given our "working relationship" with the Spanish, we hope that this exchange will be fruitful and productive.
 
France would like to thank the Sultan for his common sense, and His Most Imperial Majesty's government would like to note that it will vigorously protest any treaty that would disadvantage French businesses by favoring businesses from another country
 
Yeah, sure wine buddies.
 
Message to Spain

King Michael II Braganza would like to meet with a Spanish delegation to discuss such areas as boarder security and trade. Given our "working relationship" with the Spanish, we hope that this exchange will be fruitful and productive.

By all means. What do you wish to discuss? We're all for trade, and we wish to establish friendships with our Portuguese cousins, and hopefully bridge whatever issues we have with the British.
 
The Danish Foreign Ministry, and His Majesty, King Christian IX, agree to the terms stated in the Danish-Ukrainian Trade Treaty of 1900.

Signed, King Christian IX of Oldenburg
 
The United States of America Under the Presidency of Democrat William Jennings Bryan

What follows is an attempt to reconcile historical realities from OTL to events in TTL, with a particular focus on politics. I also want to explore a handful of US domestic issues that were historically relevant for the US at this time and which I think would be fun to explore in this timeline also.

I will begin with Free Silver.


Free Silver

Bryan won the nomination for the 1896 Democratic presidential ticket with his now famous Cross of Gold speech in which he decried the Coinage Act of 1873 which effectively put the United States uniquely on the gold standard and abolished the American Silver Dollar. The speech called for the adoption of bimetallism, resuming the minting of silver-based US currency.

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Bryan carried on the shoulders of his supporters after his ‘Cross of Gold Speech’

‘Free Silver’ was advocated by Bryan, not only for its populism and as a means to garner votes, but from a genuine belief that increased circulating currency would benefit the country’s economic health.

The 1880s saw a steep decline in the prices of grain and other agricultural commodities. Silver advocates argued that this dropoff, which caused the price of grain to fall below its cost of production, was caused by the failure of the government to adequately increase the money supply, which had remained steady on a per capita basis.

The effects of the recession which began in 1893, and which continued through 1897, ruined many Americans. Unemployment rates ran as high as 25%. The task of relieving the jobless fell to churches and other charities, as well as to labor unions. Farmers went bankrupt; their farms were sold to pay their debts. Some of the impoverished died of disease or starvation; others killed themselves.

Indeed, because gold was deflationary, individuals taking on debt to deal with reduced agricultural income or to finance commercial investments were being faced with relatively increased debt burden as the value of the dollar rose and the value of their physical wealth fell relative to gold.

For the bimetallists, Free Silver would alleviate that pressure, and while obviously not popular with the big eastern banks, would allow debtors to settle their debts and re-invest locally. Free silver became increasingly associated with Populism, unions, and the fight of ordinary Americans against the bankers, railroad monopolists, and the robber barons of the Gilded Age capitalism era and was referred to as the "People's Money"

In 1897, acting on Bryan’s campaign promises, the simply named ‘Silver Act’ made silver a national US currency at a ratio of 16 ounces of silver to 1 ounce of gold.

By 1900, the ramifications of the Silver Act are still being uncovered and it cannot be said that the road to recovery has not been without its bumps and potholes.

There is no doubt that Free Silver made more money available to the lower and middle class and led to significant reduction in bank-held debt, and for this Bryan can claim victory. Surprisingly, in addition to the farmers and ranchers, it was domestic industry that benefited from the Silver Act. An unforeseen circumstance of the act was an increase in the immediate spending power of middle-class Americans and this in turn led to increased consumption of consumer goods and growth of the domestic US industrial sector.

It has also, however, led to rapid inflation and indeed 1897 saw 26% inflation in consumer goods, while 1898 saw 12% and 1899 saw a rise of 9%. Industry wages have not kept up with rates of inflation and while urban factory workers were very happy to enjoy increased spending power and reduced debt in 1897 and 1898, they now find themselves with relatively reduced spending power.

Indeed, inflation and falling buying power for the urban factory worker were a major focus of the recent 1900 elections with the Republican nominee William McKinney sought to end inflation by abandoning silver (and winning the votes of much of eastern big business and finance) and Bryan appealing to his populist base by scapegoating ‘unprogressive’ industry monopolists unwilling to keep pace with technology and economic practicalities (ie- adopt scientific management practices and increase wages).

Bryan blamed poor wages and predatory business practices on the large monopolies and passed the Norwell Antitrust Act of 1898 and spoke eloquently about a ‘progressive future’ that embraced ‘modernism’, while referring to the works of Frederick Taylor.

The already influential labor unions had grown increasingly powerful between 1896 and 1900 and during the 1900 elections McKinney ignored them to his peril. Bryan was re-elected despite the increasingly difficult financial situations of factory workers on the promise of supporting trade unions and commitment to increasing wages (I’ll try to write about the potent labor movement listed in the USA stats as a ‘dominant issue’ later as well)

While there is no doubting that the economic depression of 1893 is now passed, some say it would have passed anyway. Free Silver remains controversial and has not been the panacea many thought it would be.
 
No more orders can be accepted beyond this point.
 
The United States of America Under the Presidency of Democrat William Jennings Bryan

Next I want to examine trade tariffs under Bryan. In OTL, Bryan was a vocal opponent of trade tariffs but realistically, Bryan’s support of Free Silver and reduced tariffs would have lost him the vote of the eastern middle class who had to come to see tariffs as protective of American industry and thus American jobs. And so, in Art of Possible, Bryan will have won his election more on a ‘Free Silver’ agenda and down-played tariffs.

Trade Tariffs

In our timeline, McKinley and other Republicans hoped to make the tariff a major issue in 1896. They argued that Democratic "free trade" (lower tariffs under Cleveland) had helped cause the depression and unemployment. William Jennings Bryan, however, seized the initiative and fought the campaign on the silver question, dismissing the tariff as an "irrelevant" issue. Despite McKinley's efforts, tariff "protection" became a secondary issue, though still important to many Republicans, who argued that tariffs enabled American men to earn a family wage and "protect" their families. The tariff thus formed a key part of Republicans' appeal to laboring men.

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Farmer McKinnely takes off his coat- a political cartoon from 1896

In this timeline, there is a higher concentration of voters in urban employment than there is in agriculture compared to our time-line due the secession of the agriculture rich south and Kinley’s words resonated more loudly than they did in our own timeline. As a result, Bryan adopted a much-reduced stance on tariffs, compromising on the issue to maintain a base of support in the eastern middle-class.

As a result, while the Wilson-Gorman Tariff act of 1894 was remitted by Bryan’s election, its spirit continued in its 1897 successor, the Dingley Act (in this timeline Maine is democratic and Dingley is a democratic. Why? Because he’s from Dartmouth and I wanted to keep a Dartmouth grad in the history books). The Dingley act, while not nearly as protectionist as OTL’s Dingley Act was none-the-less a major concession for the supporters of democratic free trade (including Bryan).

Effectively, it raised tariffs on finished mechanical goods, including tin plates from the United Kingdom which were seen by many industrialists as a symbol of continued encroachment by British industry in US commerce, finished wooden goods, woolens, linens and ceramics. Hides also saw protection, presumably to assist in the development of the west. Also protected were raw iron and steel products though US steal continues to be very strong under Carnegie, Rockefellar Morgan, and Mellon. Rates were kept low for raw cotton (except for import from slaver nations which continues to face the 2000% import duty established in the wake of the US-CSA civil war), and silk, agricultural foodstuffs and livestock, sugar, oil, coal, and timber.


And so while generally there was a reduction in tariffs overall with the passing of Dingley Act, American industry continues to see extensive protection from its government.

The Dingley Act has been felt in the way in which US conducts international trade and the Williams-Day US trade mission aptly illustrates the slow but undeniable pivot by the USA from industrial partners in Europe to exporters of raw material in the Americas and beyond.
 
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