Assyria!

It might be a stretch, but warmonger Arabia using war winning for his historic events might choose authority, kinda like Aztec peacing wars out frequently for golden ages. Maybe add in neighbors that are aggressive that you feel threatened by and a capital starting location that lacks good food sources tilting the balance toward authority?

But just on paper without setting up specific circumstances with terrain/neighbors I would agree that tradition for Arabia is pretty much 100%.
I think its a stretch. You excited about getting and extra 1 culture and 1 science for winning a war? How about when that war gives great musician points which you can't use for 200 turns? If I needed to be aggressive, I'd pick tradition anyways.
 
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