Originally posted by JollyRoger
In my opinion, the state of the economy is the marriage between past policy and current leadership.
Well said.
Nixon wasn't totally to blame for the Carter years (although getting us off the gold standard and the price/wage freezes didn't help) just as Carter can't take all of the credit for the boom in the Reagan years and Reagan isn't totally to blame for the first Bush recession.
To correct time lines here a bit, Ford more than Nixon and OPEC more than Ford. Carter gets little credit for the Reagan recovery, other than nominating Volker, but full credit for the 1981 recession. RR was dealt a mess of a hand. The Bush recession was at the end of the term, so he gets full credit. Clinton managed to blow it out of proportion in any event. The '81 recession was FAR worse. Bush left sound fundamentals in 1992.
If I had had to rank the presidents from Carter to Bush on how they were viewed by non-partisans on competence in managing the economy I would say:
Reagan, Clinton, Bush I, Bush II, Carter. Only the first two were seen as positive with the other three being seen as negative. Bush II irresponsibly talked smack about the economy during the month before he took office in order to create the myth that his tax cut was needed to turn the tide of the economy. It is true that the economy started to turn south at the end of Clinton's watch, but then at that point a change in leadership was on the horizon and I don't think any of the major candidates (except perhaps McCain) were seen as inspiring.
Reagan first and Carter last certainly. This year, polling leading up to the election showed Bush doing solidly on the economy. Most people thought that it had troubles, but the Democrats did poorly on how to deal with the problem. At this time public perception, according to polling data in October and November, has GW Bush at the middle or slightly better. Since this polling acurately predicted the election results, I tend to give it a great deal of weight.
Even taking the perception of Bush as uninspiring, at least in 2000, there was still the clear perception of his not damaging the system. The perception has seriously changed since 9/11, to Bush's advantage. While the left is uneffected, the middle now gives him the benefit of doubts and the right is solidly behind him.
I think the Democrats would to well to find somebody like George Mitchell, someone seen as more "adult" that Bush without being seen as "nerdy" as Gore.
Interesting. A left wing Newt Gingrich.
J