City flips - some tests and a look at the rules

[nerbuth]

Here's my theory regarding the flips:

If the city has been captured by the opposing armies, the most powerful factor regarding the flip probability is the culture built up in the city by the previous ruler. You can mitigate this most effectively by building your own culture quickly in the city after capture. This is done best by rush building a library then temple after you quell resistors. I don't think that having a garrison makes a difference in the %chance on that turn just for being there, but more for the fact that they get rid of resistors faster (cities with resistors have a greater %chance of flipping) and that the roll to find out how many resistors are quelled can use a bad roll that would have resulted in a flip. The other factors such as location of capital, total culture comparision, government type, and happiness level may play a factor as well, but they are small in comparison.

I've never had a city with low culture flip back after I captured it. However, I've had cities with high culture flip back to the previous ruler even though I've had all of the other known factors in my favor.

A good test that might be useful is to set the resist % for democracy to 100% in the editor (I don't use the editor much, but I know there are options based on government type) and then play a game where you take a high culture city from an opponent. See if you can coax a switch by leaving resistors and keeping the city unhappy.

Any thoughts on this?

 

[Zachriel]

Originally posted by Peteus
So you don't blitz. (Leaving 10 perfectly good Mech Inf in every captured city for 4-5 turns to crush resistance rabble is the ultimate anti-blitz.) Good for you. I do - and the quirky way that flips happen punishes a blitzing style, sometimes very severely.

Blitzing is good military strategy in the real world, but it's hard to pull off. So ideas that make it harder could be very additive, but if that was Firaxis' intent it's been treated clumsily so far.

Clearing up what the rules are would make me happy. Uneducated cries that I must not know what I'm doing do not make me happy. None of us know what we're doing - that's the problem!

Blitzing is rare in history, though very dramatic when it occurs. I do blitz when appropriate.

Sometimes it is worth taking chances: that bridge too far; the Cavalry unit which races ahead to destroy that strategic connecting road; the city left virtually undefended. It is worth taking these kinds of chances when you are suddenly presented with a technological or other advantage that may evaporate if not used immediately. BLITZ AWAY! But remember that the citizens of those cities may not like to be part of your national socialist empire, and may, rather, will revolt when given the chance.

That is the very nature of chance and is one of the many reasons why "superior" units may or may not win in the end.

 

[Slax]

What if the probability is based on garrision vs foreign citizens alone, and the previous built up culture value (vs your own) merely determines the rate at which foreign citizens are converted to your own nationality?

Has anyone taken notes on the rate at which foreign citizens convert to your own nationality? All I know is that it is a very slow process.

 

[Zachriel]

Suppressing resistance is a different matter than culture. Resistance should be ended quickly with the doctrine of TOTAL CONTROL. Once the resistance is ended a much smaller garrison will suffice. However, it also depends on the position. See this webpage (2 minute download):

http://www.crowncity.net/civ3/Culture.htm

 

[Slax]

Well, I have been using large garrisons even after resistors are gone, but according to the civilpedia under "Nationality":

"Having a city with foreign nationals is not a problem unless you are at war with the nation that originally produced them."

So, if true, this means I don't have to worry (once resistors are quashed), since I am not at war with the nations that once owned the cities I took. I thought the chance to revert was high even during peace time.
I think I should read the civilpedia more, and forum threads less!

 

[Peteus]

"Having a city with foreign nationals is not a problem unless you are at war with the nation that originally produced them."

I'm pretty sure that the the reference is to the specific problem of citizens becoming unhappy because you are at war with their country. ("Please stop the aggression against our mother country" I think?) I wouldn't take it to suggest that foreign nationals don't want to revert when you're no longer at war! Who knows though...

 

[Gnomos]

Originally posted by Rhandom


Its not exactly a secret that the game shipped witha bunch of broken features. This is likely one of them. I have another that has ruined two games now when the last unit of a civilization is destroyed, completely crashing the game, on every reload. Others have seen the game crashing when trying to make peace. Its not every game, I've crushed many civilizations in various games, and it almost never happens. But it does happen, and it totally wipes the hours you had previously spent playing that game.

If the last unit you are killing is a ship, it probably contains a settler. Reload the game, make peace, give them a small city, redeclare war, kill the ship, then kill the last city. This should recover your games for you.

 

[Moulton]

Well, I havent got back to my experiment yet... had a RTGame tonight and just got in.
When I sweep, I usually have not had enough to make a blitzkreige. Usually 10 to 25, mixed mode plus artillery. Meanwhile, other units are in production, and sent to thr front as they complete. I don't like to strip my city garrisons, although that is an oldhabit from II, and I probably leave too much power behind.
I bombard, and/or storm the town, and leave my wounded units as garrison, anywhere from 2 to 5 or 6. I don't count. By the time I have taken the next city, the left behind units are healed, roads/rails are rebuilt, if necessary, and I leave 2 units as garrison. The resistance might or might not be ended. I may be overcautious, but I do not leave undefended towns behind, but also I do not leave huge stacks. The only cities I have lost back, *during the invasion* was 1 where I neglected to leave a garrison, and they were in resistance, and 2 Russian, no culture in the city, 2 garrison troops, resistance quelled, all happy workers. Connected by road and rail to my central empire. Why did this one flip? No obvious reason, except that it did control some luxuries.
I have not identified the happiness or culture shift reasons yet. It may have to do with the nation being taken. With Romans, most cities dwindled to pop 5 or 6, had only 1 or 3 resistors, quickly suppressed, and pop began to change to Japanese almost immediately. However--as I neared the end of his major cities, the resistance became stiffer, and the residents remained Roman longer. I eliminated the Romans before they really had a chance to test the future (after war ended) flipping.
Now, with BAB, I am finding very little culture. I have destroyed a couple of libraries and temples in bombarding, but most of the cities only had 2 or 3 spearmen and archers defending, and after awhile I left my creepy catapult train behind, and just overran them. Resistance ends (with a garrison of 2) in two turns, but the people are unhappy. only 1 or 2 will work, so I make a worker before they all starve, and the cities are left with 1 or 2 permanent residents. After Peace, they became happy, and have not flipped yet--2o+ turns. Even Babylon, started with pop 8, now has 1.

 

[Sodak]

One comment I'd like to add regarding garrisons. The popup and the manual (for what that is worth ) both state that the resistance should be quelled with strong units, not many units. This might just be a quirk of word choice by whoever wrote the text, but maybe it belies a key element - Namely, if you post 8 critically wounded units, it will be less effective than 2 elite units at full strength.

Perhaps a unit (even an army could be seen as a single unit) per resistor is enough. I've never put more than 3 units into a freshly conquered city, mostly for fear of losing the units. But I've yet to have a single city flip back to the other civ. Even cities with the majority of citizens foreign resistors.

Of course, luck of the draw seems to be a big factor. Two nights ago, a lost 5 turns when the game froze, wiping out a cultural absorption and quick sacking of Philadelphia. When I replayed the lost turns last night, the Iroquois city remained Iroquois, and my 50 (!) bombards resulted in a whopping total of 4 hits. So altho the "random" numbers for each turn are set as it starts, it is clear that they are not set more than one turn in advance.

 

[Peteus]

Firaxis (Soren J - AI developer) stated in a chat on Appolyton that a garrison would help prevent flipping, that one garrison troop would more-or-less surpress one citizen, and that Power didn't matter (he suggested using all of your old obsolete phalanxes in the garrison role.) Power most definitely should matter, both in this case and in the Military Advisor and Score comparisons! But the game doesn't seem to take it into account for anything but combat. (Phew!)

 

[Zachriel]

Originally posted by Peteus
Ah, so you're saying "Don't attack until you have such overwhelming force that you can afford to leave 10 units picking their collective noses in each large captured city"?

First, Peteus, thank you for posting the game, "Petelast.sav". You are the only one do so that I have seen so far.

In any case, if you remember, I could prevent the flip by posting a strong garrison for a couple of turns. I tested some more, and I can also prevent the flip by force-building the cathedral. As I only had one turn, and the city was in resistance, I disbanded some units to "force" the cathedral. This has the added benefit of stabilizing the other recently conquered cities that you expressed concern about, and nearby cities you may be considering for conquest.

Indeed, you can actually prevent the flip by force-building the temple in the nearby city of Calixtlahuaca. It takes just one disbanded unit. Of course, we have the benefit of hindsight, but if you use standard techniques; such as the doctrine of TOTAL CONTROL of cities in resistance; rush-building or force-building of improvements in strategic areas; I think you will find that the flipping can be controlled, or even turned to your benefit.

The use of disbanded units may be cheaper than reconquering the city, especially if the flip were to cut off your rail and road support to other critical cities and to your advancing armies.

But as always in a game of such rich complexity there are many solutions to the problem. You'll have to find your own.
Hope this helps.

 

[Peteus]

Now that (building cathedral in Calixtlahuaca to stabilise nearby Alleghany) is an interesting idea...did you test it successfully? Did the random seeds stay the same? (i.e. he attacked my crippled Mech Inf on the hill and lost, making me an Elite?)
If so, why do you think that is?

I've heard a number of people refer to the concept of "pumping culture" into neighboring cities. Can you quote any reputable (i.e. Firaxis) source? I have heard Firaxis state that the probability of flipping is based on overall national culture, not the culture of a particular neighboring city. (I'm 90% sure that is in context...)

In any case, remember that Alleghany is 3 tiles away from my FP, in a huge established city that is "pumping" a whole lot of culture! So why would Calix make any difference?

 

[Zachriel]

Originally posted by Peteus
Now that (building cathedral in Calixtlahuaca to stabilise nearby Alleghany) is an interesting idea...did you test it successfully? Did the random seeds stay the same? (i.e. he attacked my crippled Mech Inf on the hill and lost, making me an Elite?)
If so, why do you think that is?
. . .
In any case, remember that Alleghany is 3 tiles away from my FP, in a huge established city that is "pumping" a whole lot of culture! So why would Calix make any difference?

Starting from your original post, the only thing I did was disband one unit in Calix to force the temple. Allegheny did not flip. The combat had the exact same result as far as I could tell. I have seen this effect many times and use it as part of my cultural build.

Culture is a regional phenomenon. Your Forbidden Palace's primary effect is commercial, though the city did have very high culture. But, Calix had no temple at all, so was running down the neighborhood.

In any case, the primary problem with Alleghany was resistance. Once that was put down, you probably could have gone merrily back to your blitzkrieg.

I do not have all the answers by any means, so I can't "optimize" my strategy. However, it makes sense to me, sort of.

The manual was not of much help.

 

[Moulton]

I have done a little analysis... but not having a Cray immediately available...
I made peace (I=Persia) with Babs, leaving them 4 cities. They immediately began expanding again, of course, but after aabout 400 years, no cities had flipped. England continued to war, and when it looked like theywere going to eliminate the Babs, I joined back to get some of the spoils. Nothing ever flipped.
Bobs have a high culture status, but the cities they ceded me had no culture in them... none. Babs were 'impressed" with my culture.

I went back to 1240, 110 years after the initial peace (neglected to save immediatel after the peace). REalized that my garrison was my invasion force--4 to 10 units in each city. Removed all but one minimum piece... warrior or spearman in each captured city.
One immediate difference -- which might not be related to anything I did -- England and Bab signed peace the next turn. However, China and Aztec continued their war, which had been concluded on the previous run)
I did record some info... But as in last segue, no city ever flipped.
When I re-entered the war on the first run, I had immediate happiness problems. Not surprisingly, ALL conguered cities went totally unhappy. But also some of my own cities went totally unhappy... like 6 out of 6 unhappy, and immediately when I declared war. This is Regent level. I had temples, marketplaces and 4 luxuries in those cities. My core cities had remained stable, but with high unhappiness. four or more unhappy people.
BAck to the Re-run. No Bab city ever flipped, but they continue to be a constant invading unit thorn in 1600. Every turn.
Meanwhile, I joined China in its war against Aztec. For one reason, the Aztec made the Sistine Chapel with a Great Leader
In 1330
When I entered this war, "Agreed with China to punish..." comp said I declared war. Well, I did. But my status showed as peace, until I actually invaded and attacked. took 8 turns to get my troops there. When I did go actively into war, I still had hardly a ripple in unhappiness.
I left Aztec with two cities, still at war.. he would not talk to me.
Then CHina declared war on me.
In 1580 Tatung revolted. During the war, 2 garrison troops. China was "In Awe" of my culture at that time.
Also, during this war, Miingpo revolted to me. with 4 happy Chinese, 3 entertainers. This city, and one other was slap in the middle of my empire... far from China, halfway between my capitol and the FP. 1495.. it was founded in 600 AD. Had NO culture, never had had any--- I did investigate it before it flipped.

 

[Zachriel]

I was cleaning up the Iroquois. They were down to one city. I had a choice of cosolidating my position, or advancing to his capital. Consolidating had the advantage that I would be able to quell the resitance, but there was a serious risk to the core of my nation falling into disruption due to weariness with the war. If I could take out the enemy capital, then I wouldn't have to worry about any recently conquered cities reverting, or flipping back to enemy control.

So, I took a chance and sent all my Cavalry forward, leaving a minimum garrison. I lost every battle against his capital, about a dozen Cavalry losing to a couple Conscript Riflemen. I checked the terrain thinking he must be on a hill, but no, it was grassland. Just plain bad luck. Two of his cities reverted. Fortunately, I had plenty of force on hand, and I was prepared for the possible flip. My Cavalry mopped up the next turn.

I relate this story because it shows the tradeoff between cosolidation or advance. If I had not been aware of the possibility of a flip, I would not have been as prepared, nor could I make that important decision about advancing or consolidating.

 

[Moulton]

Right, we are looking to develop strategems, not to flame. I may not like what is happening, but I need to understand it in order to be prepared, and then to fight back. I cannot say why I have only lost one city. I did not rush build any culture--am still cash poor, as is everyone else on this continent. I can sell, but only for pennies... Well, now, I control every luxury and every resource but one iron. We'll see what develops.
I will go back to the turn before theflip, and see If I can change anything.
Not that it is a problem... he only had one defender in it.

He did have some *Really* tough spearmen in a couple of cities, taking down elite cavalry, and not even being wounded
I have been amazed at the lack of culture found in cities. Not the ones captured... I know I would have destroyed anything there...
No culture in the cities ceded to me, no culture in the cities I 'investigated'
I saw a note that Aztec was building Sistine... didnt worry, I was only a few turns away. The next turn he built it. So I looked at the city before and after. Pop 4, one entertainer. No other culture buildings, not even a temple. I had to have been a Great Leader.