Provolution
Sage of Quatronia
You mean Tokugawa ? Monte got no islands.
Colonial Adventure
- Thread starter Provolution
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33% odds where do you get that number?
Provolution
Sage of Quatronia
Just sheer odds. There is only one island out there so far. Statistically, there should be 33 % for another.
I think the question was, what principle tells you that given 2 continents and an island there is a 33% chance of another island?
Provolution
Sage of Quatronia
Just a notion I have, having played so many civ-games in more than 15 years.
The reason why, is that the Japanese found one island, and the rest of the map, normal sized like this, is only likely to have about a third chance to have it.
No exact science, but a notion. I think one probational galleon is worth the try, as the risk is minimal.
The reason why, is that the Japanese found one island, and the rest of the map, normal sized like this, is only likely to have about a third chance to have it.
No exact science, but a notion. I think one probational galleon is worth the try, as the risk is minimal.
My version of the odds is closer to 0% than to 33%, for the record. I think it's about 3-5% to find another island (bigger than 1 tile).
Provolution
Sage of Quatronia
Even 1 tile would be great, for a forward airport, an island carrier for future strikes. I say we send a galleon with full complement into the dark area.
Joe Harker
1st in the Premiership!
What would we lose from trying and failing? We get a couple of settlers that can go onto our contient, extra workers always helps, a galleon or two, might need them in future so worth building and a few extra miltary units can't hurt.
Yes it is improbable that we will find something, but if we don't try and find out we will never know what was there or not.
Yes it is improbable that we will find something, but if we don't try and find out we will never know what was there or not.
Provolution
Sage of Quatronia
I think Dutchfire is very very risk averse here. We can use the settler later if we can. Venture capitalists would have spent much more on this on a similar business case. I would only argue for one though.
I can't speak for dutchfire's reasons, but for me risk is not the driving factor in my thinking that we should explore first then settle. We already have a caravel sailing the right direction, and if we send it empty we don't need to wait for a settler to be built. The settler that we do build can be used to fill in coast sooner, which will result in a productive city sooner.
Provolution
Sage of Quatronia
One thing does not exclude the other, we produce settlers for all cities on the coast, AND the extra settler for a galleon. If the caravel manage to identify that part of the ocean one way or another, we will still have the option to place that settler on a found island OR in our unsettled interior. I think it is worth it.
ordinaryguy
Back to Civ!
I feel that we should send a ship to explore, with a settler, worker and rifleman ready. (with a galleon nearby). If a place is spotted, then we can rush our settler there. Otherwise, build another city on our continent.
At most, if we really want to settle overseas, just war.
At most, if we really want to settle overseas, just war.
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