"Sometimes history works that way" is pretty much the exact thing I'm fighting against.
It can be taken to the extreme. Let's say that one day the "Great person making great decisions" theory of history is refuted, and we find out that most of history is cause and effect. Jared Diamond isn't too far off from this: Europe didn't win because they made better choices. They won because their geographic proximity made them less resistant to disease. The variety of isthmuses and hilly ranges naturally created nation states, which produced more competition. The whole Eurasian land mass is oriented east-west, allowing crops to more easily spread across -- unlike the whole American land mass which is oriented north-south, and it would be hard to spread crops from Seattle to Mexico. You could design a very realistic game around this... until you realize that it's not a game at all: pretty much whoever gets the nicest geographic start will win the game.
Don't get me wrong. Randomness is absolutely necessary. It would be pretty lame to have a game where everyone starts with the same terrain, with the same climate, and same opportunities for exploration... but you also get the biggest complaints in an MP game when someone gets a bad start, and someone else gets a lucky start. They don't just "roll with it". Same thing with when that 1% chance kicks in and a longbow manages to kill a tank. Same thing with when that 5% chance kicks in and you generate a Great Artist instead of a Great Engineer.
A lucky player beating a smart player may be realistic. (I think there's a quote like that: one famous leader once said he'd rather have a fleet of lucky generals than smart generals.) But for the sake of a game, it just plain sucks.
As a side note, though, we will be seeing events in BTS. We'll see how random they are. I'd prefer them to offer more choices than mere catastrophe, but we'll see.
Fighting in the middle east over a tiny peice of desert may not seem worth it from an androids point of view. Cost Benefit Analysis = Move to a more arable land and raise your children in peace rather than fight an unending conflict.
There's already lots of folly in the game: Wonders. Most Wonders, in real life, were a huge waste of money and resources, and were merely to flaunt wealth and power. In reality, the Pyramids wouldn't unlock a bunch of government options. It would more or less generate culture, maybe a shade of happiness -- maybe lower the enemy morale at most. But, of course, that's not very fun. Moreover,
people would never build wonders if all they did was generate culture.
I'd actually like to see Civilization push this further! I agree, Civ 4's history is too rational!
But introducing random or foolish incidents is not the answer. The answer is to reward these historical, emotional, non-rational behaviors. Maybe it's time for there to be a meaningful reward for fighting over that useless hunk of desert, or that
useless island -- rather than giving all the rewards to the most "rational" decision of just taking as much land as possible from the weakest link.
In that sense, the bonuses attached to wonders are simply an effort to make foolishness into a worthy in-game pursuit. And for good reason: you'd be missing a big part of history if nobody felt like building those wonders.