I think there's a case to be made for delaying World's Fair if you can get enough of the happiness policies without it. Like, go the exact opposite route of what I do now: Don't take any culture-oriented policies, and instead just go for happiness policies until you have some of the best ones, then try to plant every city and get them to like size ~25 before a late (t350) world's fair, at which point you try to get them all to max out by t500.
That *could* work, if you finished Tradition, Liberty, took 1 point of Piety, 3 points of Commerce, 2 pts of Exploration and 4 pts of Freedom. That's 22 policies, which is non-trivial, but perhaps doable by t250without World's Fair?
Let's try an example... with 150 cities at 30 and the capital at 40, that would give:
+3
/city = -453 Global. (Per-city unhappiness)
+1
/population = -4540 Local. (Per-population unhappiness)
+1
/10citizens = +454 Global. (Aristocracy)
-1
/2citizens in the capital = +20 Global. (Monarchy)
+1
/city = +151 Global. (Meritocracy)
-5%
/population = +(4540/20) = +227 Global. (Meritocracy)
+1
/lighthouse/harbor/seaport = ? - Hard to measure, let's say 80% of cities qualify on Terra, so +3*120 = +360 Local. (Naval Tradition)
+1
/bank/mint/stock exchange = ? - Hard to measure, let's say only 8 cities qualify for a Mint, so +2*153 and +1*8 = +314 Local. (Capitalism)
-1
/2 specialists = ? - Hard to measure, let's assume half of cities qualify for a windmill, so 75 cities get 11 specialists, 75 get 12, and the capital gets 17 including guilds but only gets half the value, so 5.5*75 + 6*75 + 8.5*0.5 = 412.5 + 450 + 4.25 = +866.75 Global. (Universal Suffrage)
+1
/city = +151 Global. (Goddess of Love)
+1
/2 cities = +75.5 Global. (Ceremonial Burial)
+2
/temple = +302 Local. (Religious Centers)
+2
/pagoda = +302 Local. (Pagodas)
=1
/National Wonder = +11 Global. (Universal Healthcare, assuming no NVC)
+4
/luxury * 23 luxuries = +92 Global. (assuming here we don't have the commerce or patronage policy, including Jewelry & Porcelain, but *this is only valid until we puppet the Mercantile CS*)
+1
/Natural Wonder = +5 Global.
+3:c5happy/Mercantile CS Ally = ? - Hard to predict, but averages 3 CS, so +9 Global. (Again, only valid until we puppet them)
Wonders:
+4
= +4 Global. (Chichen Itza)
+5
= +5 Global. (Eiffel Tower)
-10%
/population = +(4540/10) = +454 Global. (Forbidden Palace)
+2
, +1
/castle = +2 Global, +151 Local. (Neuschwanstein)
+10
= +10 Global. (Notre Dame)
+4
= +4 Global. (Taj Mahal)
+5
= +5 Global. (Circus Maximus)
Buildings:
+2
/circus = ? - Hard to measure, let's assume 25% of cities qualify, so +76 Local.
+1
/stoneworks = ? - Hard to measure, let's assume 25% of cities qualify, so +38 Local.
+2
/coliseum = +302 Local.
+2
/zoo = +302 Local.
+2
/stadium = +302 Local.
This accounting assumes you're *not* taking Urbanization until the end-game, which is relevant because most cities won't have Medical Labs until the end-game anyway. You lose about 225 Local from Hospitals and Water Mills by not taking this early, but you save two policies. Bear in mind that this accounting assumes that all cities have stadiums, which is not true for *quite a long time*. This is relevant because you're typically building about 10-15 buildings before you get to stadiums, realistically. During mass expansion almost none of your cities will have one. So I think size 25 is more reasonable than size 27 prior to World's Fair.
Also, FYI, I count population unhappiness reduction as global happiness because you end up with more population than unhappiness, so the excess local happiness counts towards global unhappiness reduction. BUT this is only true after you have all 11 specialist slots, which means you're at roughly size 16 and have 15 buildings. So, keep in mind that growth would have to be very carefully managed for this all to work.
So here's the tally:
Total Global Unhappiness:
453
Total Local Unhappiness:
4540
Total Unhappiness:
4993
Total Global Happiness:
304 + 20 + 151 + 227 + 866.75 + 151 + 76 + 11 + 4 + 5 + 454 + 2 + 10 + 4 + 5 + 92 + 5 + 9
= 2391.75
Total Local Happiness:
360 + 314 + 302 + 302 + 151 + 76 + 38 + 302 + 302 + 302
= 2449
Total Happiness:
~4833
Since the local unhappiness exceeds the local happiness, all of our +happiness counts. But, we're in the red by about 150 unhappiness. Which means we can really only go up to about population 28 per city this way. (1pop*150=150 happiness)
We'll need the rest of the happiness policies to get size 30. However, a late World's Fair should net us +1/garrison (+151), +302 from Hospitals/Medical Labs, ~+75 from Water Mills, and +50 from luxuries, which will boost our cap to about 33/city.
Given the amount of food tiles each city can work, getting beyond size 30 in most cities is just unrealistic anyway. And stopping at size 27 would give us some breathing room.
I'd conclude from this that a late World's Fair is valid if and only if you can get almost all the happiness policies without it, prior to expanding. However, I think this is possible, because if you subtract the 4 policies from aesthetic and 3 policies from Piety, you can probably get all this by t250, maybe by burning a few GW. But, it would have to be a GREAT culture game to get 24ish policies by then without World's Fair. When going for a t240 science victory, completing Commerce, Rationalism, Tradition and 6 policies of Freedom is doable, but that's without conquest and the resulting per-city culture penalties.
Still, in retrospect this might be a better plan after all... Hmmm. Certainly better than my late-early t310 World's Fair/t320 Expansion
Sigh. I should have done all this math BEFORE making my attempt.
The problem always boils down to one simple thing:
Getting enough happiness to allow you to expand quickly and start growing early.
This is necessary because of how long it takes to grow cities to their population happiness limit. It takes *time* to get a city to size 30. If you start at t400 it's too late. T350 is about as late as you can get away with, because with 150 cities, trade routes just don't cut it. They can boost 10 cities every 30 turns. So, between T410 and t500 only 30 cities get the benefit. And a good 20 cities are going to be planted on snow unless you have tremendous map luck. Those 20 cities need all the trade route love or they'll never reach their limit. So even though happiness unlocks growth, growth is the true limiting factor. But without happiness you can't plant cities.
So, in order to not be growth-bound, you need to focus on happiness... but of course focusing on happiness has some negative effects. You lose +25% growth from religious beliefs. +25% growth is the difference between being size 30 in 150 turns and size 30 in 120 turns. Those extra 30 turns can cap your score just as much as happiness.
Of course, map luck plays a big part. One extra maritime CS = +150 food empire-wide... *as much as 10 cargo ships*!!!
4 one-tile islands = ~1000 pts. If you end up with a Terra that looks more like an archipelago, you will just flat out win the Gauntlet, even with a late expansion.
Anyway, I think I've been focusing too hard on thinking you need *all* the happiness policies. I think you can get away with a much earlier expansion if you skip the culture policies, and in the end, that might mean you need so many fewer policies that it breaks even. Hmm. Also, Standard really changes things. Small Lakes was like 32 cities max, which makes trade routes 5x more relevant, and maritime CS 5x less relevant. On the other hand, caravans are half as useful as cargo ships. But anyway, the more cities you have, the more excess happiness you can have during expansion, if you think about it. If your existing cities all generate 1 more happiness than they need, with 20 cities you're at +20 and can plant 5 more. With 60 cities you're at +60 and can plant 15 more. Thus, the viable rate of expansion increases exponentially as your number of cities increases, meaning that if it takes 60 turns to plant 30 cities, it only takes 90 turns to plant 60 cities... at least in terms of happiness limits.
This exponential limit increase is becoming increasingly noticeable in my current game, where at ~t400 my happiness will jump up as much 40-50 pts in a single turn just from finishing buildings. I'm having trouble spawning settlers fast enough to keep up!
