You can't "force" upgrades to occur, they're awarded to you automatically, and you can choose what part to upgrade and what style to upgrade in by clicking. I'm not sure what triggers upgrades, but my guess would be that it's affected by your score, or some aspect of your empire's prosperity.
I'm not sure about the algorithm either, but I notice it tends to be coincident with several factors:
1) When I'm doing particularly well in a war, or have signed a peace treaty.
2) When my cultural borders expand. I definitely noticed this in my 100K culture game, especially after expansions in one turn.
i think the first time you destroy a barb camp, first time you defend youre city from barbs, first time you defend youre city from a civ, culture expansions, when you advance an age, thats what you need to get the palace upgrades. i think happiness has to do with it too.
I presume it is to do with keeping your people happy, since the message reads "Your citizens are so happy they have chosen to extend your Palace" or something like that. I think major milestones are the key, and they depend on your Gov type. IE: If your people dont want war and you sign a peace treaty you might get one, or if you succesfully anhialate an enemy civ your people dont like?
I was pretty sure 'bout the score thing because in my game, I was in 3rd place in score. One turn, I passed persia, and I got a palace upgrade. Next turn, I passed spain, and got another palace upgrade. This may have been a coincidence though.
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