Increased Competition in the GPR

[samildanach]

I thought I would do this since I was bored. Hopefully some of you might find it interesting.

Here are the scores you needed to beat to get into the top 100, 50, 20,10,5 or to get the coveted No.1 spot since GOTM 29.

Since GOTM 29 the GPR points needed to break into the top 100 has increased by a whopping 52 points! LochNorfarm was ranked at number 100 in the world with a GPR of 75 following GOTM 29. Sandman2003 the new number 100 ranked player following GOTM 33 has a GPR of 127.

A similar pattern emerges when you look further up the rankings where after GOTM 29 Ainwood was the number 50 ranked player with a GPR of 156. Now after GOTM 33 the number 50 ranked player in the world is dhailey with a GPR of 196.

Again at the number 20 slot where grahamiam had a GPR of 265 following GOTM 29. Now to break into the top twenty would require you to do better than Frosties GPR of 297 following GOTM 33. An increase of 32 points.

As yet, the increased competiton has yet to impact the top 10 but it is clearly going to happen with new players such as Toyo moving up fast. And also the return of old players such as Darkness who have returned to compete in the COTM


GOTM 29 GPR
1. ADel 449
5. JustusII 375
10. Kuningas 351
20. Grahamiam 265
50. Ainwood 156
100. LochNorfarm 75

GOTM 30
1. ADel 460
5. Kuningas 379
10. Smackster 316
20. Offa 264
50. GreatDeceiver 164
100. RedwoodTree 78

GOTM 31
1. ADel 451
5. Akots 401
10. Grahamiam 341
20. osi 281
50. GreatDeceiver 174
100. Scoutsout 95

COTM 1
1. ADel 451
5. Akots 401
10. Grahamiam 341
20. zagnut 282
50. MPF 186
100. Dynamic 97

GOTM 32
1. Drazek 459
5. civ_steve 377
10. smackster 347
20. Dianthus 291
50. Mad-bax 190
100. Bob-the-silent 102

COTM 2
1. Drazek 459
5. Grahamiam 370
10. Megalou 351
20. osi 295
50. Great beyond 197
100. sevnhuts 120

GOTM 33
1. Drazek 466
5. civ-steve 384
10. Sir Pleb 358
20. Frosties 297
50. dhailey 196
100. sandman2003 127

 

[ainwood]

Interesting stuff, Sam!

Because GPR is based on percentage of the top score, to me this suggests that the difference is in people playing more consistently; both performance-wise and participation-wise.

 

[Randy]

Very nice. I've been studying the ranks close since I started with COTM01. There are a lot of new players on the up. But a lot of old player have stop playing.

My position:
COTM01=317
GOTM32=203
COTM02=176
GOTM33=135

I think my rank after I have games @ age 8 will be around 40 to 50. Unless I play better/not better.

I lost COTM03 but got a very high score on GOTM34 10000+

So I will drop and then rise.

I mostly play PtW, so my C3C scores are lower.

 

[Xerol]

Unfortunately, since my PTW disk shattered inside the drive, I wasn't able to finish last month's, and therefore dropped out of the top 200. I had a good game going too, might've even been able to break into the top 100.

 

[samildanach]

I think my rank after I have games @ age 8 will be around 40 to 50. Unless I play better/not better.

I lost COTM03 but got a very high score on GOTM34 10000+

I looked at your GPR score. It is currently 94 points. After the GOTM 34 scores are in - the older scores that make up your GPR will attenuate by in my estimation 11 GPR points. Which will leave them accounting for 83 points of your GPR. But a score of 10K or over in a GOTM is usaully good for at least 85 GPR points. It may even give you the big 100 . But say for now it gives you 85 that will add to your existing 83 from previous games to give you a GPR of 168. Which would currently rank you in the top 60 sixty players.

So I will drop and then rise.

I mostly play PtW, so my C3C scores are lower.

Yeah same here

 

[Randy]

Cool, Thanks.

 

[samildanach]

Unfortunately, since my PTW disk shattered inside the drive, I wasn't able to finish last month's, and therefore dropped out of the top 200. I had a good game going too, might've even been able to break into the top 100.

Thats another symptom of the GPR becoming more competitive. Miss a game or two and your ranking plummets. There are now lots of players on the second page with GPR points of over 100. A number of those player have only been playing the COTM. Once the results of the next COTM come out the points required to get on the first page will probably go up again. Although, because the COTM was at demigod players might not have scored as well as they might have if it had been a regent or monarch game.

GOTM 34 is a regent game and might get you some good points. No matter how well you score it is unlikely to get you on the first page. But it will help to position you to make a move into the top 100 in GOTM 35.

 

[samildanach]

More ponderings on the GPR

GOTM34

1. Drazek 471
5. smackster 393
10. Wotan 376
20. zamint3 308
50. Bigfoot 203
100. Vox[SU] 127

There have been a number of milestones reached in the GPR following GOTM 34 notably by the world number one player Drazek who set a new record high GPR points total eclipsing Sir Plebs old record by 0.4 of a point.

Also, when I first entered in the GOTM ( GOTM 17) there was only one player with a GPR of over 300 - the erstwhile Queen of the GOTM Moonsinger who at that time had a GPR of 355. There are now 22 players with GPRs of over 300 points. In order to break into todays top twenty you would need to score higher than zamint3s 308 GPR points.

Wotans GPR of 376 represents a new high score at the number 10 position. Which if part of a trend may mean that in future players may need to achieve a GPR of over 400 to be sure of a place in the top ten.

I'm going to write some more stuff on the GPR but I have to do some research first .

 

[Dianthus]

Hey, sam, I've just realized you've overtaken me! Hopefully that will be "fixed" by the CGOTM04 results . (I reckon I'll be on ~345.7 then).

That score by Drazek is pretty amazing. That means he is averaging 94.2% of the best score over those games!

I've just looked back a few games to see where my current score would have ranked me, and yes, top 10 looks much more achievable in the past. I'm guessing that is due to the top players submitting more consistently, and being much closer to the number 1 score each month.

Hmm, time for some mischief . It's "interesting" that Drazek's best score for Ages 0 to 2 are all in Classic. I wonder why that is? Could it be that the competition is a lot fiercer for the C3C game?

 

[samildanach]

Doh! Thanks for editing my post Alan.

Yes, you will pass me Dianthus. But I am enjoying my current lead on you....immensely

I'm not sure about Drazek. He seems to be equally unlucky in both the classic and COTM IMO. He has been pipped to the gold recently in both tournaments. Also, it is his score as a percentage of the top score in a particular game that is taken into account for calculating his GPR. Not how big his jason scores are compared to other games he has played.

Personally, I have more trouble with the COTM than the GOTM. The reason I haven't scored a top twenty game in the COTM is simply because I have played badly IMO. It may be that competition is fiercer in the COTM but since I have yet to submit a game that for me would be well played I can't really get a feel for the competition levels. I would hazard that an attempt to determine which of the tournaments is more " competitive" by statistical methods would result in faulty conclusions.

 

[Darkness]

Hey, sam, I've just realized you've overtaken me! Hopefully that will be "fixed" by the CGOTM04 results . (I reckon I'll be on ~345.7 then).

You two just wait until I catch the both of you....

Oh, wait, I dropped in the rankings...
But don't worry, the COTM4 results should fix that.

 

[SirPleb]

There have been a number of milestones reached in the GPR following GOTM 34 notably by the world number one player Drazek who set a new record high GPR points total eclipsing Sir Plebs old record by 0.4 of a point.

Ouch!!! Thank you (I think ) for pointing that out. It seems that something must be done...

 

[Drazek]

Hmm, time for some mischief . It's "interesting" that Drazek's best score for Ages 0 to 2 are all in Classic. I wonder why that is? Could it be that the competition is a lot fiercer for the C3C game?

One reason is that in COTM I play for Awards and in GOTM for Medals.

But I haven't even started COTM04/GOTM35 yet, and I'm not sure if I play them.

 

[samildanach]

Ouch!!! Thank you (I think ) for pointing that out. It seems that something must be done...

No problemo! It looks like Drazek wasn't too thrilled either!

You two just wait until I catch the both of you....

Yeah! 2010 and can't come soon enough for me! Flying cars aswell

 

[Denniz]

Has anyone looked at the effect with and without taking the higher of the 2 monthly csc and classic scores? I wonder if some of the effect is the lower scores being tossed out.

 

[Darkness]

Yeah! 2010 and can't come soon enough for me! Flying cars aswell

Well, they do say that patience is a virtue....

 

[samildanach]

Since last month 14 players have broken into the top 100 these are
Vox[SU] in at number 100. Sir_Ortin at number 97. Durkz at number 93. Tim Bentley at number 91. NukeCDR at number 87. Kimmy Da Brit at number 85. qpdaj at number 81. Lamprey at number 78. bed_head7 at number 76. sevnhuts at number 75. zinad at number 74. grs at number 71. dvandenberg at number 64. And the highest new entry, narrowly pipping dvandenberg, is delmar at number 62.

 

[Mistfit]

Being new at Gotm and Cotm I was wondering, how the scoring is done for the world rankings. I picked up that it somehow has to do with your percentile finishing for the games you've played in. Does this mean that someone that has played every gotm will be higher than someone what only has time for the one a month? Also what is the minimum or average amount of gotm's that you think a person would need to breech the top 100? Also when are the scores released. I just completed Cotm4.

 

[samildanach]

Being new at Gotm and Cotm I was wondering, how the scoring is done for the world rankings. I picked up that it somehow has to do with your percentile finishing for the games you've played in.

The GPR points you are credited with for a GOTM are the jason points you score for that game taken as a percentage of the top scoring players jason points.

Does this mean that someone that has played every gotm will be higher than someone what only has time for the one a month?

You can play once a month and get to the No.1 position. But playing in both the COTM and GOTM gives you two chances to play a high scoring game.The highest of which (the highest percentage score relative to the top score) will count towards your Global Playering Ranking while the other is discarded. The process by which GOTM scores are aged means that there is some biweekly fluctuation in some players rankings as different GOTMs and COTMs are paired with each other.

Also what is the minimum or average amount of gotm's that you think a person would need to breech the top 100?

From Alans GOTM statistics page the average jason score as a percentage of the top score is in the region of 50 - 60 % for recent GOTMs which equates to 50 - 60 GPR points. This month in order to get into the top 100 you would have to do better than Vox[SU]s GPR of 127 which means that on average it will take 3 months to break into the top 100.

Also when are the scores released. I just completed Cotm4.

The moderators decide when the results are released. Recently it has been around the 5-7th of the month for COTMs. Sometimes if there are player conduct issues to be addressed then the release date can be pushed back as suspect games are put under the microscope.

 

[Sandman2003]

One way you have yet cut and diced this information is to pose the question - what if everyone had played games to fill in all nine slots, how would this then affect the standings?

That is, since the existing data rewards regular play (and rightfully so too, I might add), how would everyone compare if we extrapolated the existing results so that for all missed games the competitors were awarded an average GPR based on those games they have actually submitted, and the ultimate results reordered accordingly.

Naturally when one starts thinking like this their are a few decisions to be made.
1) Should form be individually tracked in the classic and the conquests competition, and then recombined, or just use the best results? Given the fact that some of the top players have elected to deliberately go for points in one game, and variations in the other, this would unfairly penalise such players, so the interpolated score was based on the best between the two games.

2) A cut off point was needed somewhere to reduce the distortion caused by one off players, so I chose the first 100 players as a good guideline.

3) The interpolated values were only used when a game had not been submitted that month, otherwise actual values were applied.

The first ever (and probably last) extrapolated top ten are:

1. Dynamic with 496.222
2. Sir Pleb with 479.863
3. Drazek with 471.874
4. Toyo with 469.986
5. ADel with 461.056
6. Kunningas with 455.996
7. akots with 452.501
8. mad-bax with 450.273
9. Ronald with 448.924
10. bradleyfeanor with 445.328

Of course, I probably would not have bothered to dd this exercise unless it meant that I was going to get a bunch more points - I end up 49th!