Judge my chances!

My chances are...

  • 0%. Give this up, Tomoyo.

    Votes: 1 2.9%
  • 10% I don't think you are gonna win.

    Votes: 2 5.9%
  • 20% You have an outside chance

    Votes: 2 5.9%
  • 30% You can win it if you get lucky.

    Votes: 3 8.8%
  • 40% With a bit of luck, there's a possiblity

    Votes: 4 11.8%
  • 50% You have a fair chance.

    Votes: 8 23.5%
  • 60% You have a good chance

    Votes: 4 11.8%
  • 70% You will probably win

    Votes: 3 8.8%
  • 80% Barring an invasion, you'll win

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 90% Barring an unexpected thing, you'll win

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 100% I believe in you Tomoyo!

    Votes: 7 20.6%

  • Total voters
    34

Tomoyo

Fate
Joined
Feb 21, 2004
Messages
9,698
Location
Boston, Mass
So? What do you think my chances are of winning this game?

Wait for poll...

Also, I will post some pictures for those that can't/are too lazy to look at the save.

Sid630.jpg


Sid630F1.jpg


Sid630F3.jpg
 
What's the oddball rule you're not telling us about? :D

Renata
 
Ah. Well. That is oddball, now isn't it? :)

Wouldn't presume to give you odds.

Renata
 
I would never discount you Tomoyo. Can you explain why so many temples? Is it border expansion or are you going for cultural?
 
It's cause I have nothing else to build. I have no resources, and I'm still a few turns from Currency. I don't plan on doing any research anytime soon, and I really need the happiness. The ones in far-off places are just placeholder builds, for whatever I want there later. I just don't feel like seriously building any troops until I get a harbor in that city in the very very very very north, that's not on the screenie, which is on iron.
 
Tomoyo,
Could you show a turn log as you go? I would be interested to follow your decision making and as well hear others comment. Cathy is...wow!
A few question I would ask right off the top.
Horses. I would assume you'll wait until knights to get them? Would you trade with the Americans (lit and 20 gpt seems steep) or are you going to just take them?
 
I've played a few turns after the save, and I haven't been keeping a turn log.

Basically, I got Horses in a series of trades after I stole Republic. (Yes, I stole Republic. It was very cheap, compared to what those cheapos wanted from me.) I am building exactly one horse. I have an iron colony city at the northern part of my continent that, will be very essential. If it flips, I'm screwed. My plan now is to try to get Feudalism (maybe another steal), build up some Swiss Mercs, get the Arabs to exhaust their forces by ramming against them, and then trying to attack them.

I'll try to keep a log from now on though. I am in the MA, but I am down Mono, Feud, Eng, Inv, and perhaps a few more. I think I will need to pull something out of a hat.

On the bright side, I'm a Republic. (8 turn anarchy... :()

EDIT:

@LLXerxes: You got a better place for it? It's the only decent city other than Amsterdam I have.
 
I'll lend you a razorblade so you can slash your wrists.

Actualy, you're not in bad shape. You've got a decent size country, a couple of key resources, and good gp coming in. The temples will help with happiness and culture. My concern would be with the military. You've got 9 cities but only 8 spearmen and 9 warriors and an expansionist civ with a good, offensive UU right next door.
 
Arabs seem to have some really wide spacing which is good. That iron spot is in "Bumblesville" Holy Cow.
I was going to ask about the embassies but I see one of them was put to very good use. They seemed cheap I think Cathy was 50g. You better watch out for her. She could run over the Americans and be the runaway. Her culture is off the charts.
Will you move the turn log to SG's or keep it here?
 
9 cities? I count 15. :p Nine show on F1.

Also, what key resources? I'm trading for horses, and my iron city is halfway across the world and very likely to flip.

That gpt is not enough to buy anything in the MA, even though I've gotten it up to 75 by now. I'm gonna need to steal 'n sell, I guess...

Maybe I'm too pessimistic... :(
 
If you can take some of that Arabic land, you'll be good to go. You have enough workers to clear the crap from it quickly.
 
Whomp said:
Arabs seem to have some really wide spacing which is good. That iron spot is in "Bumblesville" Holy Cow.
I was going to ask about the embassies but I see one of them was put to very good use. They seemed cheap I think Cathy was 50g. You better watch out for her. She could run over the Americans and be the runaway. Her culture is off the charts.
Will you move the turn log to SG's or keep it here?
I'll keep it here.
 
EDIT: Got rid of the crappy BMP! ;)

As soon as you can upgrade your warriors to swordsmen.

Three pronged attack on the Persians.

1. Red: A small force should be able to take/raze Shiraz. Another small force should go after Fez, (note: Fez has a harbour). Send your main force to take Yamama.

2. Red: Use your northerly troops to repel any Persian ones that will undoubtably advance towards your capital. Those hills would make a nice place to fortify, (Big Yellow "F"). Move whatever's left from Shiraz up to attack Fustat. If need be send a couple of units down from the main force.

3. Orange: Attack Kufah with your main force. Be careful, this area will probably be heavy with Persian units already, attacking Kufah could force them to defend, rather than attack with most units.

4. Green: If your main force still has momemtum, press on to Aden. You're fortified troops in the hills could add some juice to the attack.
4. Yellow: May want to send a couple units to explore the dark area (If you have any to spare)

Note: It would be a good idea to get settlers to the Yellow circled areas ASAP.
 

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Far be it from my right to judge and give advise to such experience player...
However, if you've seen my post in strategy and tips (desert start), I have learned a few valueble things from that game (yes, it was lost eventually, but only by diplomacy and i was able to survive!!!):
This could help, hope it does: I've waged war on Germany, which was much stronger than me and had better units, but using cannons, I took three cities. The war weariness was killing me (democracy), but they came asking for peace, so I guess they had the same problem (republic). I made peace and I think that was my biggest mistake. I had them broken and should have switched governments to keep on taking their cities. If you have similar situation, consider that, since the benefit will be more land, significantly weaker AI versus the few turns anarchy and more warlike government...
Other than that, I think your position is not that bad, at least you are not sandwitched in between the two AI...
 
Thanks for reminding me! I will want many trebuchets to soften my casualties when I attack Arabia. (Or, maybe, the attack will be delayed so much that I'll be using cannons... :rolleyes:)
 
BTW Tomoyo, you added way too many poll choices, :rolleyes: It would have been just as effective with something like:

0%. Give this up, Tomoyo.
25% You can win it if you get lucky.
50% You have a fair chance.
75% You will probably win
100% I believe in you Tomoyo!

Anyways... :king:
 
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