Military Intelligence - Brazucan War

[Provolution]

FREE FANATICA - TURN 144

Province of Tikal

Khazad Doom
Kamina
East Point

Province of Equestria

Zoi
Unlucky Harbor

Province of Ferrania

Magnopolii
Coba
Klixus

Known Brazucan Order of Battle


Order of Battle/Lost Units
Warriors= /1 Exterminated
12 Immortals/ 1 Enslaved, 2 Exterminated (All in Southern Brazuca, kills East)
2 Spears (All in Southern Brazuca)
2 Trebuchets (All in Southern Brazuca)
4 Galleys/ 5 sunk (2 West, 4 East, 5 sunk West)


Known Wabittian/Catagonian Order of Battle

41 Mounted Warriors (CDZ)
City founded on ruins of Or "Bring out your dead" (CDZ)
41 Gallic swordsmen (CGN)


NAVAL THEATRES

Western Ocean - Naval control from Unlucky Harbor up to Sao Luiz.

2 CDZ Caravels and 2 CGN Caravels west of Ferrania and 2 CDZ Caravels East.

Galley Magelhaes last seen NW of Natal 10 AD

Eastern Ocean - found four galleys lined up south of Swamps, Vasco da Gama (3/3), Pernambuco (3/3) , Para (4/4), Santa Catarina (4/4)

Southern Brazuca

Sao Luiz: Immortal Veteran, Ronaldhino 1º Trabuco Trebuchet 2º Trabuco Trebuchet, Espirito Santo Galley
NW of Sao Luiz Immortal Veteran Urubu
E of Natal Immortal Veteran Petrillo

Nicotinia

Mount Doom: Castle Mengele: Unknown

Advancing through Jungle, 2 tiles SE and S of Mount Doom

Immortals Vasilis, Pack Man, Rafa Luiz, Ex ColDiehard and Ex Otelo.


Terror Hill (SW of Mount Doom) Fortified Veteran Immortals Falso and Mutante, Regular Spearman
Road between Mount Doom and Terror Hill roaded by Regular Spearman and Worker

Chrysanthemium
1 Gallic Swordsman

Uxmal
6 Gallic Swordsmen

Provopolis, Duck Pond and Ake
6 Mounted Warriors

Emp, Charnel, Borodino, Tunder Falls, Or/Bring out your dead
27 Mounted Warriors

Ryttyla
9 Mounted Warriors

Fanatazuma and Savannah
34 Gallic Swordsmen

Brazucan Battle Losses

2 Galleys, Cabrallis (3/3) and Columbus (3/3) in Western Ocean (Turn 131) sunk by our galleys. 2 Galleys, Esprito Santo (3/3) and Parana (3/3) sunk by SW2 and SW3 in Western Ocean (Turn 142)
Galley Minas Gerais (3/3) sunk outside Chrysalemum, Ferrania.
Warrior on Isthmus Hill (turn 131) lost to our JT, golden age

2 Immortals in Southeastern Nicotinia, Veteran Immortal Barclay Enslaved and Immortal SS Raptor destroyed by Elite JT Barclay Wannabee and AC, AC retreated. Two 1/5 ACs after battle and one 1/5 JT.
1 Immortal in DMZ

Wabittian Battle Losses

6 Mounted Warriors
7 Redlined Mounted Warriors

Catagonian Battle Losses

7 Gallic Swordsmen
4 Redlined Gallic Swordsmen

Fanatican Battle Losses

141
1 Galley Outside Sao Luiz lost to 2 Trebuchets and a Galley 141

143
2 horsemen lost to Gallic Swordsmen 143 4 GS
1 Horsemen and 1 MDI lost to Mounted Warriors 143 4 MW

144
1 pikemen Duckpond taken by Wabittian Mounted Warriors
1 Warrior, Ancient Cavalry and Horsemen taken 144 Cheetahpolis taken by Wabittian Mounted Warriors
2 warriors Thunderfalls taken by Wabittian Mounted Warriors 1 MW
2 warriors, horsemen outside EMP taken by Wabittian Mounted Warriors
1 pikemen, Charnel taken by Wabittian Mounted Warriors
1 pikemen, 1 spearmen, Borodino taken by Wabittian Mounted Warriors 1 MW
2 warriors, Or taken by Wabittian Mounted Warriors
2 warriors, worker taken, Ryttyla taken by Wabittian Mounted Warriors
by Or, horsemen killed by Wabittian Mounted Warriors
by Cheetahpolis, 2 broken down MDIs killed by Wabittian Mounted Warriors
undefended AKe and Provopolis taken
2 spears, Fanatazuma taken by Catagonian Gallic Swordsmen 1 GS lost
2 warriors, Savannah taken by Catagonian Gallic Swordsmen
outside Fanatazuma, Horseman and settler lost to Catagonian Gallic Swordsmen 1 Gallic Swordsman lost
spearmen, 2 Ancient Cavalry and Horsemen, Chrysantemium lost to Catagonian Gallic Swordsmen, 1 GS lost
Horseman outside Chrysantemium destroyed
undefended Uxmal and Westpoint taken by Gallic Swordsmen, Westpoint destroyed

total 9 brazucan formations. 7 Wabittian, 7 Catagonian and 33 Fanatican combat formations lost in battle and 5 captured.

3 galleys
4 Spearmen
3 Pikemen
6 Horsemen
3 Ancient Cavalry
2 Medieval Infantry
11 Warriors
Settler
5 workers

Tikal
Fanatazuma taken by Catagonia
Savannah taken by Catagonia
Ryttyla taken by Wabbittians

Equestria
Thunderfall taken by Wabittians
Emp taken by Wabittians
Cheetahpolis taken by Wabittians
Or (DESTROYED, replaced by "Bring out your dead") taken by Wabittians
Charnel taken by Wabittians
Borodino taken by Wabittians

Ferrania
Chrysantemium taken by Catagonia
Uxmal taken by Catagonia
Westpoint (DESTROYED) taken by Catagonia
Duck Pond taken by Wabittians
Ake taken by Wabittians
Provopolis taken by Wabittians

RIks Analysis

And now I'm going to show my real background; mathematics.

Our F3 advisor says we are average compared to them. To calculate how many units they might have; we have to use Propain's and Oystein's formulae:
Total power = Sum { ((3 * Attack + 2* Defense) * Hit points + Bombardment) }
I calculated this for us; which = 2369 or 2659 (if galleys count).

I saw 12 Immos + 2 spears + 5 galleys. Their visible value = 852 (or 922 if galleys count). 2 Trebuchets

Average means they are within the boundaries of either 10% above us or 10% below us; so their power is between 2133 and 2605. (or 2394 and 2924 if galleys count).
At max they have 2605 - 852 = 1753 points somewhere (or 2924 - 922 = 2002 if galleys count).
1 veteran immortal has a value of 64.
1753 / 64 = 27 vet immos at max (or 2002 / 64 = 31)

So, if they've only veteran Immortals around; they have at absolute max 31.
If they have only reg Immo's around; they have at max 41.

The absolute minimum Vet Immo's they have besides the visible ones (if they have no other units) =
1281 / 64 = 20 (or 23 if galleys count).

It is reasonable to expect C3B to own about 5 to 10 more galleys. If so; their max number of possible extra Immo's = only 3 or 4 less. That would mean they still have hidden under the fog 25 extra Immortals, if we assume the worst case scenario.

A lot of assumptions, but I think it can be useful.

Interpretation of Analysis, we can assume they got MP garrisons in 18 cities or so, of which 2 MPs in 14 and 3 in 4. We can guess they are Spearmen, which gives them 20 spearmen in total. In this estimate, the Brazucans have the following force composition

30 Immortals
10 Veteran Spearmen
10 Regular Spearmen
20 Regular Warriors
5 Trebuchets
5 Veteran Galleys
10 Regular Galleys

 

[Provolution]

History of the Fanatican-Brazucan War 90 AD-

129 10 AD

Magelhaes Galley observed NW of Natal
Santa Catarina Galley observed SW of DMZ.

General naval positioning and encirclement of their scout warrior

132 70 AD Outbreak of War


Three Fanatican Galleys engage three Brazucan galleys west of the Nicotinian coast, and sink two Brazucan galleys, of which the last escapes.

Two Fanatican Javelin Throwers engaged Brazucan warrior scout and eliminates the warrior, throwing Fanatica into a Golden Age.

C3B suffered major defeats in 90AD against the Jt's of CFC and against the CFC fleet. The war concluded but both sides were tense. CFC, fearing a C3B counterstrike, sent fleets to the east around 188 AD and caught a C3B fleet lurking in the area.

138 190 AD

Brazucan expedition force landed by sea Northwest of Eastern Javelin Thrower, Barclay Wannabee, and comprise of the two Immortal Divisions of Barclay and SS Raptor.
These are ambushed by the JT and two Ancient Cavalry Regiments, enslaving the Barclays as Nicotinian slaves and exterminating SS Raptor. The Brazucan plan was to isolate and destroy something they guessed was an isolated scout unit.

C3B withdrew, only to be reinforced 2 years later with a landing force. By either a stroke of luck or tactical genius, The CoMA had landed 3 cavalry divisions in the region where the immortals had planned to ambush an encampment of Javelin Throwers who had been watching the East Coast for C3B invaders. In a combined maneuver, the Javelin Throwers and Ancient Cavalry attacked the immortals. The C3B army was destroyed, but at a heavy cost of life to the CFC troops.

139 - 210 AD

3 Galleys spotted southeast of the DMZ Marshes and our galley by Terror Hill sails into Sao Luiz Bay and reveals a major component of their Immortal Force.

140 - 230 AD

Esprito Santo engage our Sao Luis Scout Galley outside Sao Luiz harbor, and sinks it in a naval battle supported by the two trebuchets defending Sao Luiz.

4 Galleys, Para, Pernambuco, Santa Catarina and Vasco de Gama observed in the Southeastern waters of the Brazucan Dr. Mengele Swamps forming a naval defense line stretching from the beaches of the Fanatican cavalry army camping in the southern end of the jungle to the high rough seas.
By a sudden, a foreign civilizations expedition was met, the Catagonian vessel CS Lunar Point, passing the Brazucan defense line heading south towards our Armada.

Farther west, the Brazucan Minas Gerais was seen offshore of Ferranias main city and iron source Chrystall

141

Mount Doom Immortal Army observed S, SE of Mount Doom in the Jungle

142.

Brazucan Galleys Esprito Santo and Parana sunk of Cape Terror by our Galleys SW2 and SW3 in a glorious naval battle, whereas our Eastern Galley Armada face the 4 galley Santa Catarina Defense line. The Mount Doom Immortals are gone.

143

Massive Wabbittian and Catagonian navies land huge armies outside Ryttyla and Charnel, as well as around Northern Ferrania.

In the battle of Chrysalemum, a massive battle for the Ferranian Iron Mountain, two ancient cavalry detachments and four horsemen regiments annihillated four gallic swordsmen forces at the loss of two horseman regiments.

Outside Chrysalemum, on the high seas the Fanatican Galley sunk the Brazucan Minas Gerais



3/3 MDI Vs 5/5 Mounted Warrior. MW flees 1/5, MDI 3/3.
3/3 MDI Vs 5/5 Mounted Warrior. MW flees 1/5, MDI 2/3.
3/3 MDI Vs 5/5 Mounted Warrior. MDI dead, MW 3/5.
5/5 AC Vs 5/5 MW. MW dead, AC 1/5.
3/3 horse VS 1/5 MW. MW dead, horse 3/3.
4/4 horse VS 1/5 MW. MW dead, horse 1/4.
4/4 horse Vs 4/4 MW. horse dead, MW 2/4.
4/4 horse Vs 4/4 MW. MW dead, horse 2/4.
4/4 horse Vs 4/4 Immortal. Immo dead, horse 1/4.

144

 

[Provolution]

Fanatican Army and Navy

115 Units
58 Free Upkeep
57 Units Paid Upkeep (30 % of slider)


Fanatican Army

604 Garrison Power

19 Regular Warriors (6) 104
3 Veteran Warriors (20) 60
7 Veteran Spearmen (28) 196
2 Regular Pikemen (24) 48
4 Veteran Pikemen (36) 196

998 Assault Power

2 Veteran Javelin Throwers (40) 80
1 Elite Javelin Thrower (50) 50
1 Veteran Swordsman (52) 52
5 Regular MDI (48) 240
9 Veteran MDI (64) 576

1602 Infantry Power

1435 Cavalry Power

4 Regular Horsemen (30) 120
15 Veteran Horsemen (40) 600
11 Veteran Ancient Cavalry (65) 715
(Builds Ancient Cavalry 143, 148, 153, 158, 163, 168, 173, 178, 183 and 188)
Obsolete by Metallurgy.

3037 Army

Fanatican Navy

9 Regular Galleys (15) 135
7 Veteran Galleys (20) 140

275 Navy

3312 Total force points

 

[Provolution]

Brazucan Army and Navy

42 Free Upkeep/48 in 150 (Belem (5), Fortaleza (5),Porto Alegre(5)free aqued.)
125 Paid Upkeep ?
165 Total Units ?

12 Veteran Immortals (64) 768
2 Regular Spearmen (15) 30
2 Trebuchets
5 Regular Galleys (Vasco da Gama, Pernacumbo, Maghelaes, Minas Gerais and Esprito Santo) (15) 75
2 Veteran Galleys (Santa Catarina and Para) (20) 40

ESTIMATE

This estimate make the Brazucans slightly weaker than us.

30 Veteran Immortals, 20 South and 10 en route south from production
10 regular spearmen serving as frontline defense
10 veteran spearmen serving as guarding critical cities
20 regular warriors serving as guarding non-critical cities
5 Trebuchets covering Sao Luis, Castle Mengele
10 regular galleys, mostly in the West
5 Veteran Galleys, 2 in the South, 3 en route every 5 turn.

assumed 22 workers

Total 112 Units
42 free upkeep
70 paid upkeep

Slider: 40 % support, 10 % Tax, 20 % Lux, 30 % science

Since they got less of an economy than we do, my guesstimate is that they have only 2000 more points on the map, or 30 Veteran Immortal equivalents.
However, we can safely assume that they got 3 more galleys in the West and a land force MPing 17 cities, of which 4 are major cities. Since they got an average army, and 16 less free upkeep (10 % slider equivalent) due to less cities, we can safely assume they got 4X3 Military Police in their larger cities, and 13X2 in their smaller cities, making a total of 38 Military Police units.

Knowing Belem (only C3B Harbor) is 20 tiles away from the Santa Catarina Line by the DMZ, and Belem has size 5 with a probable production of a galley every 3-4 turns, we may assume they got 3 more Veteran Galleys in the East and 5 more regular galleys in the West. This makes Brazuca have almost equal naval capability with us. 250 point total for Brazucan Galleys. 30 Veteran Immortals is 1920 points. 210 points for 10 regular spearmen. 280 points for 10 Veteran Spearmen. We can guess they got 5 Trebuchets as we seen two, and possibly they got another 20 regular warriors worth 300 p, making the numbers go up. Of these 30 immortals, we can guess 20 is by the front and 10 is en route. They got no strategic reserve in their rear, and they count on their Lighthouse to stop naval operations.

 

[rcoutme]

Brazucan known southern tile improvements as of 140 AD

 

[Provolution]

Here is the Fanatican Combined Forces

 

[RegentMan]

I like that pie graph, Provo. Didn't realize that we had so many warriors!

 

[Provolution]

Warriora are cheap MPs, which is the way to go in Monarchy. These warrios are much more worth than their regular fihting capacity.

I am glad you liked the graphics, I will do the same with our economics.

 

[Donovan Zoi]

Akot of good those warrior MPs will do us now......

 

[Chieftess]

The other teams must be laughing at how AI-like we are.

 

[Donovan Zoi]

It takes real talent to lose 10 cities in one turn to CDZ, and how many from CGN?

For a moral victory, can we at least pillage a C3B road or something?

 

[Provolution]

Updated War Intel. We lost 33 units in the first two turns.

 

[Provolution]

SURVIVING FORCES OF FREE FANATICA



Notice from the previous force composition, the high risk of digging in with inferior units. I always advocated an early use of force projection against a timid development of inferior city development, which would just make the bounty slightly more palatable to invaders. I will analyze the various in game ideologies and leadership profiles of this DG for the interest of it.

First of all, all administrations had some good in them and some bad.

However, following the Joker Incident, which did take place, regardless of what version people prefer, we should have prepared a landing force projected heavily into the weak Eastern Coast of Brazuca, when they were building their Great Lighthouse. As soon as the game is over, I will embassy Brazuca turns 105-120 to see what units they had in East Coast cities and Rio, and project what battle situation that would have taken place with the CoG plan as originally intended. The plan is very much similar to what the US Confederacy did in the Civil War, to use temporary sort term force superiority (8 veteran Ancient Cavalry 3/2/2/5 , 12 veteran swordsmen and 4 veteran JT vs warrior garrisons and a few spears, possibly scattered Immortals) in order
to break Brazucan morale with shock and awe. With the majority of ther forces located in the south, the City of God would have teared their center in parts and blocked reinforcements North South and East West, removing their iron and Hanging Gardens, and causing more anarchy. Possibly, this would cause the intervention of CGN and CDZ as the French and British was considered potential supporters of the Confederacy if Washington DC was taken, and that is the only strategy for a situation like we had.

Bunkering would just make us a natural target.



DZ, I do not like you spam stickies as well. Just letting you know, seniority does not give you such privileges as this is a pure informational thread.
I have sure learnt my lessons on how to organize for next ISDG.

 

[Chieftess]

It takes real talent to lose 10 cities in one turn to CDZ, and how many from CGN?

For a moral victory, can we at least pillage a C3B road or something?

With 100 mobile units (not sure of the exact number) breathing down our throats, not really...

Setting up/taking a city where you can get to other cities the quickest is all that matters. (that's the reason a lot of players win once cavs arrive in SP games - hence DG4. Supported by tanks, but still, that was a large continent.).

 

[Provolution]

Compliments to Military Intel.

Micco confirmed our military estimates of the Brazucan force composition were pretty accurate, and I was the same person calling for Rik to sail into Sao Luiz and scout their beaches, this gave us extremely valuable information on that Brazucan forces were concentrated by DMZ. From only 12 units (10 % of their military force) we could with probability theory, statistics, assessing tech development, city builds and improvements use deductive elimination method to figure out their force composition with 90-95 % accuracy. I will bring these skills to a new team.