One Last Hand [WW/Mafia, Play In-Progress]

[Takhisis]

So, claimed:
Takhisis: Gambler <--- You know this to be 100% true.
Xym: Gambler
topsecret: Gambler

It's my father.

Yes, you make me feel old.

I have never, so bad, wanted to win a mafia game as a townie before. I am not even sure why. I just feel like we have all the information we need.

We need two more nights, I think, then all the pieces will be on the table.

Why haven't even the mafia tried to fake a read on Apollo's Extrails?

 

[topsecret]

So, claimed:
Takhisis: Gambler <--- You know this to be 100% true.
Xym: Gambler
topsecret: Gambler

Yes, you make me feel old.

We need two more nights, I think, then all the pieces will be on the table.

Why haven't even the mafia tried to fake a read on Apollo's Extrails?

Because he might be mafia? Just a suggestion.

 

[topsecret]

Yes, you make me feel old.

You wanna feel really old?

I played Civ3 as a kid, rather soon after it came out.

 

[Rakkoon]

I think this is the third time I'm the fool in my last five games. The universe is trying to tell me something.
Nobody is counterclaiming but I think I'm still up for the lynch. This will not help us
Lots of stuff to read/analyse...for now
Unvote, vote Snerk

 

[Yakostovian]

Yako, does your ability fail on occasion? Or are me and Rakkoon on the same team for sure?

I don't know for sure if my scries are accurate or can possibly be messed with. It was hinted that I would know more if I knew who the Card Shark was.

 

[Takhisis]

Unvote, vote Snerk

Because…?

It was hinted that I would know more if I knew who the Card Shark was.

Are you voting for the Card Shark?

 

[Takhisis]

Because he might be mafia? Just a suggestion.

An unsolved conundrum at present.

 

[Yakostovian]

Because…?

Are you voting for the Card Shark?

I'm not voting for anyone yet. I'm leaning to vote for

Xym scanned Snerk as Town, Yakostavian as Mafia, Topsecret as Mafia
Topsecret scanned Snerk as Mafia, Rakkoon as Mafia, Takhisis as Mafia
Rakkoon scanned Murska as Mafia, Xym as Mafia, Takhisis as Mafia
Extrails scanned Takhisis as Town, Topsecret as Mafia, Xym as Mafia
Snerk scanned Rakkoon as Mafia, Takhisis as Mafia, Topsecret as Town
Takhisis scanned Rakkoon as Mafia, Xym as Mafia, Topsecret as Town
Yakostavian scanned Topsecret and Rakkoon as on the same team.

Using this information, and the assumption that Rakkoon is Champ/Beginner's luck tells me that we should be voting for Tak. Does anyone have an alternate hypothesis?
Vote Takhisis.

Very good chance I will not be online tomorrow, as it a rather important American holiday.

 

[Rakkoon]

Because…?

Some people would be happy I'm no longer votIng for them

Snerk is rather quiet and he's on Xim's and Top's list.

 

[topsecret]

Using this information, and the assumption that Rakkoon is Champ/Beginner's luck tells me that we should be voting for Tak. Does anyone have an alternate hypothesis?
Vote Takhisis.

Very good chance I will not be online tomorrow, as it a rather important American holiday.

No, if Tak's mafia, that means Rakkoon had a true result. Therefore:
1. He's the champ and Xym is mafia
2. He's the champ, got hit by the ace, and Xym is not mafia
3. He's Beginner, got hit by the ace, and Xym is not mafia.
4. He's lying and Rakkoon is mafia.

Now. If Snerk's scan is true...

Snerk scanned Rakkoon as Mafia [FALSE], Takhisis as Mafia [TRUE] , Topsecret as Town [TRUE]

He has two TRUE scans, which is impossible unless Snerk is the champ. (4) above is impossible, because that would mean Snerk had three true scans. True scans cannot exceed two unless someone has a role we are not aware of, even from the OP.

Snerk's scan makes sense if Tak is town:

Snerk scanned Rakkoon as Mafia [FALSE], Takhisis as Mafia [FALSE], Topsecret as Town [TRUE]

Something could be messing with my logic, but I don't think so. Snerk's scan results are the reason I think Tak is innocent. They could be messed with, but I don't see how.

Spoiler Mafia Guess Analyzations :

Somehow, in my gut, I feel that if Snerk is innocent, then I would point to a Xym/Tak mafia team, but maybe that's just a bad feeling. Let's see:

Xym scanned Snerk as Town, Yakostavian as Mafia, Topsecret as Mafia
Topsecret scanned Snerk as Mafia [FALSE], Rakkoon as Mafia [FALSE], Takhisis as Mafia [TRUE]
Rakkoon scanned Murska as Mafia [FALSE], Xym as Mafia [TRUE], Takhisis as Mafia [TRUE]
Extrails scanned Takhisis as Town [FALSE], Topsecret as Mafia [FALSE], Xym as Mafia [TRUE]
Snerk scanned Rakkoon as Mafia [FALSE], Takhisis as Mafia [TRUE], Topsecret as Town [TRUE]
Takhisis scanned Rakkoon as Mafia, Xym as Mafia, Topsecret as Town
Yakostavian scanned Topsecret and Rakkoon as on the same team.

The problem with this hypothesis, is that it gives both Snerk and Rakkoon double true results, which I can't seem to wrap my head around. I don't feel like it matches Xym's behavior in-thread, either, but I just don't know. The double true result from Snerk is the only thing stopping me from thinking this is possible.
The above assumes:
1. Everyone above is a gambler.
2. No aces. But they could never generate double true results. Doesn't mean we don't have them though.

Let's run a test assuming Xym is guilty, but Tak is not, since we have run them together and Tak separate. Under these conditions, we have an unknown mafia messing with results because they faked theirs.
This test assumes three things:
1. Xym is guilty
2. Rakkoon is innocent (based on Yako scan)
3. Tak is innocent

Xym scanned Snerk as Town, Yakostavian as Mafia, Topsecret as Mafia
Topsecret scanned Snerk as Mafia [TRUE/FALSE], Rakkoon as Mafia [FALSE], Takhisis as Mafia [FALSE]
Rakkoon scanned Murska as Mafia [FALSE], Xym as Mafia [TRUE], Takhisis as Mafia [FALSE]
Extrails scanned Takhisis as Town [TRUE], Topsecret as Mafia [FALSE], Xym as Mafia [TRUE]
Snerk scanned Rakkoon as Mafia [FALSE], Takhisis as Mafia [FALSE], Topsecret as Town [TRUE]
Takhisis scanned Rakkoon as Mafia [FALSE], Xym as Mafia [TRUE], Topsecret as Town [TRUE]
Yakostavian scanned Topsecret and Rakkoon as on the same team.

I don't believe this hypothesis, because it gives a double-true result to Takhisis. I know I am innocent, and if Xym is guilty, Tak has two trues. Extrails also has two trues, while Rakkoon only has one.

So I stick to my guns on this one. Looking at votes and scans, I don't see how Tak could be guilty. It's always possible but I can't figure it out. I suppose Snerk and Takhisis could be guilty. One more test:

Xym scanned Snerk as Town [FALSE], Yakostavian as Mafia [FALSE], Topsecret as Mafia [FALSE]
Topsecret scanned Snerk as Mafia [TRUE], Rakkoon as Mafia [FALSE], Takhisis as Mafia [TRUE]
Rakkoon scanned Murska as Mafia [FALSE], Xym as Mafia [FALSE], Takhisis as Mafia [TRUE]
Extrails scanned Takhisis as Town [FALSE], Topsecret as Mafia [FALSE], Xym as Mafia [FALSE]
Snerk scanned Rakkoon as Mafia, Takhisis as Mafia, Topsecret as Town
Takhisis scanned Rakkoon as Mafia, Xym as Mafia, Topsecret as Town
Yakostavian scanned Topsecret and Rakkoon as on the same team.

Nope. Not happening. Two triple falses and I have a double-true.

Sticking to Snerk.

 

[AvatarKhepri]

Day phase is over, results being tabulated.

 

[AvatarKhepri]

Day Two is over

Spoiler Final Votes :

Rakkoon
----1: Snerk
----3: Apollo's Extrails

Takhisis
----7: Yakostovian

Apollo's Extrails
----2: Xym

Snerk
----4: topsecret
----6: rakkoon

topsecret
----5: Takhisis

The final maximum vote was 2, and the first votee to reach that number was Rakkoon

Several more hands flew by before casino security returned, each sporting a rather grumpy face. "Sir," one guard said tersely to one of the players. "I've been watching you play for a bit. Would you like to know something interesting?"

"Interesting? Sure."

"You have, in the past several hands, gotten a straight flush, four of a kind, full house, flush, straight, and full house."

"Wow, is that so? What are the odds, huh?" the player joked, as they laid down another straight flush.

Security scowled at him. "Astronomical. Additionally, we looked back through the records, and you haven't gotten lower than two pair aces high the entire tournament...and always when your opponents had worse. It's been determined that you're cheating, and you're going to have to leave...willingly or otherwise."

The player puts up a protest, but acquiesces and stands from the table before they get picked up and tossed out the building. Rakkoon is escorted away by security.

Rakkoon was kicked out of the casino. They were the Beginner's Luck.

Night Two begins now, and will end in ~24 hours.

 

[topsecret]

 

[Rakkoon]

Good luck y'all

 

[Apollo's Extrails]

Fudge, Sorry rakkoon i was busy yesterday celebrating fourth of july with my family. I'd have changed my vote if i could be caught up on it, and i read there's a place to bet? Where's that on these forums?

 

[Snerk]

Sorry for my low activity this game. Seems this game requires some serious number crunching to make headway and It's hard to find the time right now.

 

[Xym]

I feel incredibly daft. >.<
Didn't change my vote... =/

 

[Takhisis]

I did well to unvote Xym, it seems.

Using this information, and the assumption that Rakkoon is Champ/Beginner's luck tells me that we should be voting for Tak. Does anyone have an alternate hypothesis?
Vote Takhisis.

This vote is bad and you should feel bad.

No, if Tak's mafia, that means Rakkoon had a true result.

And now that Takhisis isn't mafia…?

 

[topsecret]

I did well to unvote Xym, it seems.

This vote is bad and you should feel bad.

And now that Takhisis isn't mafia…?

Did I switch my vote? Nope. I still think you are town. I scanned Apollo, fyi.

 

[Apollo's Extrails]

Awesome! I'm so ready to be cleared. And we can finally lynch the wolves.