Be wary if you have one or more Vassals of your own. Regardless of whether that Vassal came from Capitulation, Peace Vassalling, or creating a Colony, as the powerful AI to the north will consider its relationship with your team as a whole when determining whether to attack you or not.
So, if the AI to the north won't attack a Civ Team that it is Pleased toward, it first averages and then rounds down its relationships toward you and each of your team members. So, if you have one Vassal toward which the AI to the north is Cautious, the AI to the north will have to be Friendly toward you in order for it to have an average of a Pleased relationship toward your Civ Team. If, however, the AI to the north is only Pleased toward you, the average of 1 Cautious + 1 Pleased, when rounded down, is Cautious, so you won't be invulnerable from the AI to the north declaring war on you.
If the AI to the north has the option of declaring war on you, then it also has the option of taking on a Peace Vassal of another AI with whom you are currently at war. So, then you need to look at the relationship of the AI with whom you are at war toward the AI to the north and determine if the AI with whom you are at war sufficiently likes the AI to the north to be willing to Peace Vassal to the AI to the north.
It can often be worth your while to improve the relationship between your Vassal and the more powerful AIs, such as by spreading the Religion of a powerful AI to your Vassal or asking your Vassal to switch to the Favourite Civic of the powerful AI (you must, at least temporarily, also be running that same Civic, say, temporarily for 5 turns during a Golden Age), that is, assuming that the powerful AI is already running that Civic or is a Civic that you can convince the powerful AI to run. Alternatively, you can put a couple of Spies inside of the powerful AI's Cities and, with some spending on Espionage Points, get that powerful AI to switch into its own Favourite Civic. Many AIs, such as AIs with Hereditary Rule, Organized Religion, and Theocracy as their Favourite Civic, will be willing to switch into that Favourite Civic all on their own, but you may first have to wait a while after they receive the relevant tech if have switched Civics recently. It seems, at least to me, that AIs with Nationhood as their Favourite Civic don't switch into it all that easily, but there could be other factors that I hadn't paid attention to, such as other Civics being unlocked shortly before that time that had caused those AIs to switch their Civics and then have to wait for a period of turns before being allowed to decide to switch Civics on their own (I recall the number being bigger than 5 turns for non-Spiritual Civs, more like 20 or 30 turns, but I don't have the exact number on hand).