Secret Hitler (concluded)

Yakostovian said:
This government has PASSED.
Three policies shall be given to Chancellor Omega, who shall pass two policies to President Takhisis. Both are to say nothing until it has been revealed what policy has passed. Other players are free to speculate as they wish.
Click to expand...
Shouldn't the underlined parts be swapped?

;)
 
Well, given the fact that only Rakkoon and Omega passed a liberal policy so far, Rakkoon would be the obvious choice, but you would have to be crazy to try and pass a fascist policy the first phase. I'm not really seeing a clear choice here.
 
First time playing this particular game but we have 4 out of 6 players that have passed a fascist law. That is a problem.

Omega and Takhisis, anything to report?

(This game feels like 'mastermind', we should mix and match the players to find the perfect liberal combination but there is a chance that they actually received three fascist laws, which screws up that process)
 
I got two fascist policies from the president.
 
Megs, what do you say about this?
 
JohannaK said:
Megs, what do you say about this?
Click to expand...

I was handed three fascist cards. I know I said that was statistically unlikely given the deck at the time, but I can't argue with the actual results. This, of course, can lead to two conclusions:

1. I was just really unlucky. It was a 21% chance, and sometimes unlikely events just happen. It's not that out of the ordinary.

2. Joan is lying about getting three fascist cards.

At this moment, I don't really have the information to conclude 2 is true or false either way. It's too early in the game for me to comfortably make anything more than finger of suspicions, especially given how quiet most of you are in terms of any actual conversation worth of substance. However, obviously, finger of suspicion towards Joan since he hasn't done anything to me which to me would make me lean him being a liberal.

Conversely, I don't really think anyone at the moment is really leaning liberal either. The closest to me are Rakkoon and topsecret, but I'm not entirely convinced either are. I think Rakkoon is a bit too aggressive with baseless call outs (he seemed to not understand there's a way higher chance to draw fascist than liberal in the deck, or that a deck even exists), but I chalk that up more to an eager townie who doesn't understand the specific mechanics of Secret Hitler more than a fascist, at least at the moment. Topsecret seems like the only other person trying to figure out the game, which means either a really dedicated liberal, or a fascist trying to throw the scent off of him. Can't confirm either way, so I would say that Rakkoon is a bit more likely atm, but possible.

---
Currently, the policy deck, assuming 100% truthfulness, looks like this

Starting Composition: 6 Liberal, 11 Fascists.
Round One: Drew 2 Liberals, 1 Fascist. New Comp: 4 Lib, 10 Fascist
Round 2: Drew 3 Fascist. New Comp: 4 Lib, 7 Fascist
Round 3: Drew 3 Fascist. New Comp: 4 Lib, 4 Fascist

We should have a really good chance of passing a liberal this round, given that the chances of drawing 3 fascists for yet another round is low. 7% low. The chance of getting one lib and two fascist, and thus having a fascist president being able to mess with the results, is about 14%. A fascist policy being passed this round would almost surely implicate someone in that government being a fascist.
 
I'm gonna go ahead and give Rakkoon a shot. Easiest way to extrapolate more data.
 
I think he meant an anti-fascism shot.
Oh, I see why you'd object.
Omega124 said:
I was handed three fascist cards. I know I said that was statistically unlikely given the deck at the time, but I can't argue with the actual results. This, of course, can lead to two conclusions:

1. I was just really unlucky. It was a 21% chance, and sometimes unlikely events just happen. It's not that out of the ordinary.

2. Joan is lying about getting three fascist cards.

At this moment, I don't really have the information to conclude 2 is true or false either way. It's too early in the game for me to comfortably make anything more than finger of suspicions, especially given how quiet most of you are in terms of any actual conversation worth of substance. However, obviously, finger of suspicion towards Joan since he hasn't done anything to me which to me would make me lean him being a liberal.

Conversely, I don't really think anyone at the moment is really leaning liberal either. The closest to me are Rakkoon and topsecret, but I'm not entirely convinced either are. I think Rakkoon is a bit too aggressive with baseless call outs (he seemed to not understand there's a way higher chance to draw fascist than liberal in the deck, or that a deck even exists), but I chalk that up more to an eager townie who doesn't understand the specific mechanics of Secret Hitler more than a fascist, at least at the moment. Topsecret seems like the only other person trying to figure out the game, which means either a really dedicated liberal, or a fascist trying to throw the scent off of him. Can't confirm either way, so I would say that Rakkoon is a bit more likely atm, but possible.
Click to expand...
Assuming you're saying the truth, how probable is it that Joan got 1 liberal policy and 2 fascist ones?
 
I reckon it is more likely that Megs did.
 
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