SGOTM 07 - Gypsy Kings

Ronnie1 · May 21, 2008

We can close them sooner(so they don't settle the ice) and we can plan sooner what exactly to do in terms of PA, dom etc...

This part doesn't make sense to me. We can close the borders after 10 turns. But if we wait, (they don't settle the ice), we may not need/want to close borders. We should have 6-7 turns after the Library is done to run the scout south. If we stay on roads, that's ~24 tiles south, that gives us a pretty good opportunity to meet the rest of the continent WITHOUT opening up the ice tile BEFORE we are very close to covering it completely with our culture.

Munro · May 22, 2008

Ronnie1 said:
This part doesn't make sense to me. We can close the borders after 10 turns. But if we wait, (they don't settle the ice), we may not need/want to close borders. We should have 6-7 turns after the Library is done to run the scout south. If we stay on roads, that's ~24 tiles south, that gives us a pretty good opportunity to meet the rest of the continent WITHOUT opening up the ice tile BEFORE we are very close to covering it completely with our culture.

I think the key benefit is that we would have the option of closing the borders earlier. If we open them early enough (before the AI has any settlers ready) we could get through the 10-turn minimum period and be ready to cancel at immediate notice if we see a settler heading up that way.

The longer we leave it, the more likely the AI will send a settler up our way before the 10-turn mimimum expires. We'd be helpless to stop it.

I should say that I agree strongly with oyzar's view that early exploration and tech trading (esp. in this PA scenario) are hugely important, but I think we have to assume that at this level, the AI already has had time to build extra settlers (AJ's turnset seems to confirm this) - and with this hyper-crowded map, likely has one already waiting to come and claim the spot.

So I don't think we would get away with it. We want the intel and the early trading, but it could quite likely cost us the clams. (The fish should be safe regardless since we'll have 10-20 culture per turn in that tile, vs. 2 or 3 max from the AI). I don't think that trade-off is worth it.

@oyzar - agree with you on the value of exploration; but is your argument that it is worth losing the clams for? or that we still have time to open and close before washington sends a settler, thus keeping the clams? or that we would be able to get the clams back regardless (but what if religion spreads)? or something else?

I think you're saying the second one (can open / close before settler gets through) but based on the info from AJ's turnset, sounds like that's looking increasingly risky?

Munro · May 22, 2008

hellwitch said:
"- OB with Asoka will bring us -1 relations with Tokugawa (he is at -2 towards Washington and annoyed)"

Toku can't attack us anyway because he wont open border with the other AIs so we are save to make OB with Asoka.

For OB with Wash and lizz imo we must delay it at least till we reach 2-3 turn before getting alfa. Why - because we wont have any benefit to open border earlier(exept OB diplo bonus few turns earlier).

Good point - prob. makes sense to OB with Asoka then right away (for the +ve diplo bonus), since we'll want to OB with Washington soon, and they're friendly and sharing a religion. Might as well start cosying up to them.

Would this also increase the chance of a religion spread from Asoka?

Ronnie1 · May 22, 2008

Good point - prob. makes sense to OB with Asoka then right away (for the +ve diplo bonus), since we'll want to OB with Washington soon, and they're friendly and sharing a religion. (1)Might as well start cosying up to them.

(2)Would this also increase the chance of a religion spread from Asoka?

1) We are the only ones with writing at this point. Why would we open with Asoka if it doesn't help us explore? He gets the opportunity to send a settler our way, and we get no benefit in return. :confused:

2) Yes, it should help with religion spread, but do we want to be hindu? What if our PA target is Buddhist or some other religion?

@ Munro, If we wait until the Library is done, roughly 6 turns before Alphabet, do you think we would have enough time to contact the remaining civs on this continent?

Conquistador 63 · May 22, 2008

Just for the record, I won't be able to play before Monday, so I suggest Munro plays his turn if he can.

Ronnie1 · May 22, 2008

The Roster order is...

oyzar - waiting
adrianj - waiting
hellwitch - waiting
Ronnie1 - just played
Munro - UP NOW
da_Vinci - on deck
Conquistador63 - in the hole

Munro · May 22, 2008

Ronnie1 said:
1) We are the only ones with writing at this point. Why would we open with Asoka if it doesn't help us explore? He gets the opportunity to send a settler our way, and we get no benefit in return.

2) Yes, it should help with religion spread, but do we want to be hindu? What if our PA target is Buddhist or some other religion?

@ Munro, If we wait until the Library is done, roughly 6 turns before Alphabet, do you think we would have enough time to contact the remaining civs on this continent?

1. Asoka can't send a settler our way, as he doesn't have OB with Washington (at least not yet). Though of course he could still do that before the 10 turns is up, and send a settler our way. Washington starts with Agri and Fishing, so it's seems quite possible he'll get writing within that timeframe (if he doesn't have it already - don't suppose we were able to tell from the beaker bonuses during the last turnset)?

So maybe it's too much of a risk after all, for too little benefit.

2. We don't have to convert (and probably wouldn't want to, to avoid antagonising anyone). The religion spread would still add +1 culture though and allow us to build temple and monastery. So that'd still be very positive.

3. OB with Washington. Until we've actually popped borders and claimed that ice tile, I'm not sure how much the library helps. We won't burn down the city immediately, and chances seem high that religion could spread there. If that happens, it will get its first border pop and start laying down free +20 culture on the clams tile (plus +1 from religion and any extra from buildings there). We could be hard pushed to overwhelm that any time soon. We're currently pumping +8 culture, which will double to +10 with the library, and then +16 once the pyramids hit their 1000 year anniversary. We still won't be able to compete.

So I would be (reluctantly) inclined to wait until we are 1 or 2 turns from popping borders, before OB with Washington. (Does border pop happen at the end of turn, or beginning of the next)?

We may well not meet all the AI before alpha (though some may OB with Asoka and / or Washington and meet us before we OB ourselves) and we'll just have to live without trading for some of the cheaper, early techs. I think this is better than living without the clams for perhaps a long time.

BTW - has anyone ever tried gifting the AI techs on the opening diplo screen (only works if you meet them post alpha). I've heard it can give an immediate +4 relations boost. Anyone know if this is true? This might be a useful consolation prize and make up for some of the other disadvantages of later exploration / trading / planning.

Munro · May 23, 2008

Conquistador 63 said:
Just for the record, I won't be able to play before Monday, so I suggest Munro plays his turn if he can.

I'll be away also, sat-mon. However, for simplicity's sake (and to keep things moving), unless C63 takes it back, I will plan to

- post a PPP tomorrow eve (fri)
- play tues (or later if reqd)

This is my 'got it' for the save.

hellwitch · May 23, 2008

I don't know if it is a rule - that a gifted tech at making contact is +4 but i've seen such thing in my games!
the problem is that in the fist contact sreen you don't know if this civ has enemies or if it is at war with someone you haven't met yet.

oyzar · May 23, 2008

Gifted tech at pretty much any time is huge + modifiers... We will eventually get that through regular trading due to the way the AI bargains soon enough though so i don't think we would need to gift techs for that...

Munro · May 23, 2008

Initial thoughts on my PPP, to get things going.

1. Overall - play until alphabet (10-15 turns) and stop.
2. OB with no-one*.
3. MM - emphasises growth. Revolt to representation as reqd to avoid hitting happy cap.
3. Techs - alphabet only. (Turnset ends with alpha).
4. War / religion - none.

* OB - have we reached consensus on this? I understand oyzar's argument to be that exploration is hugely important (absolutely true) but personally I doubt that we will be able to OB and then close again before Washington gets a settler out to us, since it sounds like he has (or had) one already built - and potential impact of losing the clams long term is not worth the risk (and seems like HW and others agree).

With the greatest of respect to oyzar, unless there are new arguments to consider (or I've misunderstood them), I suggest we go with the majority view on this and perhaps come back to replay this save after the finish for our own education unless anyone can see a way to further quantify the arguments either way?

On MM - basically I am expecting to focus on growth which should implement AJ's 'pop 7' scenario that he posted earlier, and just want to recreate the MM for myself to make sure I understand and agree with it. Will also check things like working stone for earlier library (earlier science boost) v. marble (more beakers early, boost comes later) etc. and post a detailed MM plan in the main PP later tonight.

Thoughts on the proposed propsal?

Ronnie1 · May 23, 2008

Thoughts on the proposed proposal?

I agree in principal!

The only thing I would keep in mind.

If Washington HAD a settler standing on our border, how long would it take him to walk to the ice tile and settle a city? We can open borders that many turns before our next border pop and be safe that we cover the tile in time.

Is there any way you could play today so we can get in some discussion over the weekend?

EDIT: 1 other thing I would keep in mind. If someone lands a settler by galley, we might as well open borders and start moving.

Munro · May 23, 2008

Ok - I can certainly play this evening. You'll be at the mercy of my best judgement for 'optimal tile MM' but 'maximise growth' doesn't leave a whole lot of room for error (I hope :mischief:

).

Will play up to alpha and post up screenshots and save for futher discussion unless anyone shouts in the next couple of hours.

Edit: yes, also agree with both points above re: time taken to cross our lands and if liz or anyone else lands a settler there via galley (in which case OPB with Washington first and then prob. with Asoka after a couple of turns as well once we've seen past the immediate frontier).

Munro · May 23, 2008

Ok - I've recreated Ronnie's turnset on AJ's test save and am posting the two here for comparison (they show only minor differences in that the real save has slightly higher hammer and beaker overflow into barracks / alphabet).

AJ test save:

real save:

I'll experiment now with the MM for this turnset for AJ's test save at this point (attached) and post here before starting my turnset for real.

Ronnie1 · May 23, 2008

Hey, It looks like I did OK!

Munro · May 23, 2008

Ok - I've recreated AJ's tests and am easily convinced that the revolt to representation and emphasise growth (city size 7 by alpha) scenario is the best.

There are a few different options. I was able to recreate AJ's screenshots and achieve alpha in 1480BC only by sacrificing some of the power tiles for commerce (e.g. coast instead of deer). While this nets alpha 1 turn earlier, I don't think this gets us any real advantage - the extra food and hammers help more in the long run, as post drama, those become the limiting factor (there is plenty to build - lighthouse, granary, harbour etc).

I prefer initial marble over initial stone though, since the beaker rounding means we get an extra +4 beakers from the marble, which I think are worth more than the +1 hammer from stone.

Here are the numbers from the different sims I ran (I propose to chose the first one).

Spoiler :

I also played on for a bit from scenario 1, to get a loose feel for how things would play out and what would become most useful. Save attached. I never explored (very unoptimized play) but found I still met lots of AI and always had plenty of people to trade with. LIberalism in 375AD which would be a lot sooner with proper MM. Attached just for interest.

Edit: I will play my real turnset tomorrow morning but will check back here for any feedback first.

adrianj · May 24, 2008

I'm glad to see my test games are helping out

I'd like to offer another option regarding the MM though.

T48 - 2080BC: work sheep/deer/crabs/crabs.
T49 - 2040BC: work sheep/deer/stone/crabs.
T51 - 1960BC: work sheep/deer/marble/crabs.
T52 - 1920BC: grown to 5. work sheep/deer/stone/crabs/marble
T56 - 1760BC: library built. revolution to representation
T57 - 1720BC: work sheep/deer/crabs/crabs + 1 scientist
T59 - 1640BC: grown to 6. work sheep/deer/crabs/crabs + 2 scientists
T63 - 1480BC: size 6; alpha 401/429 (+35); GPP 78/100 (+8); culture 274/500 (+16); barracks 48/60, food 28/32 (1 turn to grow)

The biggest difference is not revolting until after the library is built. In this case we'll still get alpha the next turn, as well as grow to 7 next turn, but we have the library slightly earlier giving us more culture and more GPP. I worked the stone for a couple of turns because I found that I could get the exact amount of production for finishing the library by T56.

oyzar · May 24, 2008

When you revolt really doesn't matter as long as we are revolting for representation only as we get nothing the turn we are revolting anyways... and we do need to revolt before we'll go over happy cap...

adrianj · May 24, 2008

We at least want to revolt before we start assigning scientists, this is why I propose the revolution just after the library is complete.

Munro · May 25, 2008

Thanks for the input guys. Unfortunately RL interfered this morning so I won't now be able to play until tues eve (or possibly late mon eve but this is unlikely). I'll check back here before starting in case someone else want to post a got-it and play instead over the weekend..

Sorry for the delay.

SGOTM 07 - Gypsy Kings

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