SGOTM 08 - XTeam

[Cactus Pete]

Shaka
Extreme warmonger! Then, if we don't take him out quickly (or at least hinder his development), we'll likely need to build many units to deal with him later.

If we're worried about founding a city on top of iron I'm not worried so much about founding on the iron as I am knowing the optimal city site that includes the iron (if indeed it's on our peninsula).
If you're worried about founding too many cities and having high maintenance, no. Again, that's not my concern.

This speaks to researching Wheel fairly early and hooking the copper that I expect we'll find nearby.

Yes, if our warrior isn't able to steal a worker and set Shaka back, then training an axe would merit a high priority.

 

[rrau]

I hate early wars with Shaka due to his UU

 

[Mad Professor]

Mad Professor - Looking for !

 

[Cactus Pete]

I hate early wars with Shaka due to his UU

It requires hooking up a metal, so perhaps a very early war won't raise your ire.

 

[leif erikson]

Suggestions for the next turn set:

We need to complete Bronze Working in order to locate the Copper and allow forest chops.
After Warrior, we need a Work Boat to claim the Clams, followed by a Settler if at pop 3, or a Barracks until we get to pop 3?
Next tech should be Writing or Wheel, if copper in the bfc.
Scout and Warrior, about to be built, head for Zululand.
Worker chops to speed Work Boat and Barracks, then Settler. If Copper is in the bfc, priority to mining it.

If we are planning to settle the Plains Hill as our second city, we should decided when we need to research Sailing and Masonry so we can build TGLighthouse.

Playing to Bronze Working should require about 10 turns. I think this may be the best stopping point so we can assess where copper is and what to do about Shaka.

 

[ShannonCT]

I was playing around this morning with the possibility of an early axe rush against Shaka. I found one sequence of moves that could get an axe to his capital before turn 50 and the second border expansion. It involves building a second worker after the workboat while waiting for Wheel, using two workers to hook copper, and whipping an axeman. Building a second worker at Pop3 instead of a settler delays the founding of Plains Hill city by 9 turns.

The axeman is able to arrive next to the Zulu capital with the warrior on turn 48 and attack on turn 49. The axe is 23% against the archer, but if it does enough damage, the warrior could be able to finish the job. That's assuming there's only one archer, and that it's not on a hill. So how about those assumptions?

Our scout might be able to get a look at the Zulu capital. If it's on a hill, forget about an early rush. If it isn't, we'd want to know the chance that there would be two archers there on turn 49. So I ran a Worldbuilder test, putting 7 Shakas on the same board. At turn 49, 5 out of 7 had two archers in the capital. Now in this test, all of the Shakas were unmolested for the first 49 turns. I don't know how stealing a worker before then might affect the number of archers. But at this point, it looks like an early rush has a rather low chance of success.

 

[ShannonCT]

Suggestions for the next turn set:

We need to complete Bronze Working in order to locate the Copper and allow forest chops.

I suggest also trying out some sequences where we delay BW in favor of Writing to get a library earlier.

After Warrior, we need a Work Boat to claim the Clams, followed by a Settler if at pop 3, or a Barracks until we get to pop 3?

Workboat should complete 1 turn before Pop3, so we can prebuild another warrior or workboat for 1 turn and then switch to a settler.

Next tech should be Writing or Wheel, if copper in the bfc.
Scout and Warrior, about to be built, head for Zululand.
Worker chops to speed Work Boat and Barracks, then Settler. If Copper is in the bfc, priority to mining it.

I advise against barracks so early. Save them for when were ready to build a serious army. Chopping settler is good though. Chopping a forest will speed up the settler by 2 turns and if we chop the one SW of the capital, we save an additional turn in settling city 2. If we are going for BW now, I suggest we revolt to slavery after completing the settler but before he settles.

 

[killercane]

Yes, if our warrior isn't able to steal a worker and set Shaka back, then training an axe would merit a high priority.

You can just research Alphabet and buy him off way before he reaches you with one move units through jungle. Only quick copper for him is a concern as impis rocket through the jungle like nobodys business. But any wandering warriors are annoying.

I hate early wars with Shaka due to his UU

If it's by my and CP's definition of early he wont have a UU.

 

[killercane]

Suggestions for the next turn set:

We need to complete Bronze Working in order to locate the Copper and allow forest chops.
After Warrior, we need a Work Boat to claim the Clams, followed by a Settler if at pop 3, or a Barracks until we get to pop 3?
Next tech should be Writing or Wheel, if copper in the bfc.
Scout and Warrior, about to be built, head for Zululand.
Worker chops to speed Work Boat and Barracks, then Settler. If Copper is in the bfc, priority to mining it.

If we are planning to settle the Plains Hill as our second city, we should decided when we need to research Sailing and Masonry so we can build TGLighthouse.

Playing to Bronze Working should require about 10 turns. I think this may be the best stopping point so we can assess where copper is and what to do about Shaka.

Since our 2nd workboat wont be out for a while, I think netting fish (with the delay to get there) is better but havent looked at any numbers to confirm. We could preroad to likely copper spots if we do wheel->BW, but this would also have to be looked at. Barracks is only good if you plan on building several units immediately there, since the cost is so high for non aggro you are giving up 2 axes to build it.

 

[Cactus Pete]

I was playing around this morning with the possibility of an early axe rush against Shaka. I found one sequence of moves that could get an axe to his capital before turn 50 and the second border expansion.
Now in this test, all of the Shakas were unmolested for the first 49 turns. I don't know how stealing a worker before then might affect the number of archers. But at this point, it looks like an early rush has a rather low chance of success.

That's productive play. Certainly agree that an early axe rush does not look wise, so suggest we concentrate on getting map info on Zulu territory, followed hopefully by a worker steal and/or preventing a metal hook up. We may still need an axe, but perhaps not so soon.

 

[Cactus Pete]

I suggest also trying out some sequences where we delay BW in favor of Writing to get a library earlier. Won't it be hard to get a library much earlier without chopping?

I advise against barracks so early. Save them for when were ready to build a serious army. Concur. Chopping settler is good though. Chopping a forest will speed up the settler by 2 turns and if we chop the one SW of the capital, we save an additional turn in settling city 2. The choice of a second worker vs a settler comes up in most of my games, and I've found that the second worker is usually the better tactic because, though the settler is delayed, the second worker can help chop him quickly and when he settles you have an extra worker who is badly needed to improve the tiles of two cities and then to chop. (The benefits of two cities just doesn't kick in too powerfully in most cases without improved tiles, but establishing on a plains hill might tip this the other way. Of course, if we need an axe soon an earliest second city may be required. Do you have any more play time available to look at this?) In any event, I think we should hold off deciding on our second city site until after BW is researched. If we are going for BW now, I suggest we revolt to slavery after completing the settler but before he settles.

Concur......

 

[ShannonCT]

CP, yes, I have more free time. I'll keep working on it.

 

[Cactus Pete]

You can just research Alphabet and buy him off way before he reaches you with one move units through jungle. Only quick copper for him is a concern as impis rocket through the jungle like nobodys business. But any wandering warriors are annoying.

It's the quick copper eventuality (along with worker stealing) that has me thinking of an early axe (now that SCT has pointed out the probable failure of an early axe rush).

 

[ShannonCT]

Since our 2nd workboat wont be out for a while, I think netting fish (with the delay to get there) is better but havent looked at any numbers to confirm. We could preroad to likely copper spots if we do wheel->BW, but this would also have to be looked at. Barracks is only good if you plan on building several units immediately there, since the cost is so high for non aggro you are giving up 2 axes to build it.

Our worker can mine the bare hill to the south after mining the gold. At Pop3, we could work that hill until the fish are netted. The loss would be 8-10 beakers, but no production. In fact, if we are building a second worker at Pop3, a mine is better than clams, because of the bonus for being expansive.

 

[killercane]

It's the quick copper eventuality (along with worker stealing) that has me thinking of an early axe (now that SCT has pointed out the probable failure of an early axe rush).

Ok now I have some time to think some more. I think Shannon's numbers are spot on. Normal speed is hard to recover from doing a rush such as we are thinking.

That being said, we can get 2 axes over there by upgrading (80 gold) in the same amount of time if we build another warrior after workboat and before settler/worker (OR if we keep the one we are building just inside our cultural borders). That would make it two axes and a warrior vs. 2 probable archers. Still not good odds. We could also upgrade to 3! axes (my estimate is ~35-40% chance to take the city) or send 4 (conservative estimate is ~70% odds to take the city). Who likes to gamble? 3 axes can sometimes take a city spread out over two turns if the suicide axes do enough damage.

How do you get the archer to leave? In BTS, they wont attack a scout usually. So that tactic is out. What they will do is escort a settler and leave that lone archer defending capital on just the right turn where they cannot retreat back to the city (unroaded tile) and cant found their second city. There is no calculus in the world that will tell you when this will be without having a better look at Shaka's BFC. If memory serves he is EXP as well, so he should have a worker running around soon.

If he started coastal, I have seen some AIs grow to size 5 before building workers and settlers, but normally this is the more peaceful AIs. Sometimes they will build worker first, and sometimes on deity they will build settler first (though that is less relevant here, since he doesnt start with several units and workers and another settler which leads me to believe they are less likely on monarch to try this tactic). If attacked via worker steal, he is more likely to build more units, but he doesnt forget about building another worker down the road when he feels safe and he will not be as ******** as say Warlords AI.

Also if he is coastal, the new city would be less maintenance unfriendly with the Lighthouse.

As with any "rush", a cost benefit analysis has to be made. Certainly removal of Shaka is necessary. If we believe we can make 4 axes (140 hammers), and in so doing acquire 160 hammers worth of property (settler+worker), it certainly makes sense to do so unless our tech rate is greatly compromised. So I am still against it but that is my analysis.

 

[killercane]

Our worker can mine the bare hill to the south after mining the gold. At Pop3, we could work that hill until the fish are netted. The loss would be 8-10 beakers, but no production. In fact, if we are building a second worker at Pop3, a mine is better than clams, because of the bonus for being expansive.

Indeed. But to keep the worker busy he will finish that mine and not have anything to do but chop, right? Am I remembering his sequence correctly? With roads we can preconnect that hill to the south and the 3 hills west/sw or continue roading to Shaka if that makes 1 turn difference on a 1-2 axe plan.

 

[ShannonCT]

That being said, we can get 2 axes over there by upgrading (80 gold) in the same amount of time if we build another warrior after workboat and before settler/worker (OR if we keep the one we are building just inside our cultural borders). That would make it two axes and a warrior vs. 2 probable archers. Still not good odds. We could also upgrade to 3! axes (my estimate is ~35-40% chance to take the city) or send 4 (conservative estimate is ~70% odds to take the city). Who likes to gamble? 3 axes can sometimes take a city spread out over two turns if the suicide axes do enough damage.

Are you considering the AI tendency to whip defenders in BtS? We should watch for a message that Shaka has adopted slavery, because if he does, 3 axes might have a problem.

I'm also worried about the cost of upgrading 2 axemen. 160 gold will set us back 5 or more turns in the Oracle race.

How do you get the archer to leave? In BTS, they wont attack a scout usually. So that tactic is out. What they will do is escort a settler and leave that lone archer defending capital on just the right turn where they cannot retreat back to the city (unroaded tile) and cant found their second city. There is no calculus in the world that will tell you when this will be without having a better look at Shaka's BFC. If memory serves he is EXP as well, so he should have a worker running around soon.

If he started coastal, I have seen some AIs grow to size 5 before building workers and settlers, but normally this is the more peaceful AIs. Sometimes they will build worker first, and sometimes on deity they will build settler first (though that is less relevant here, since he doesnt start with several units and workers and another settler which leads me to believe they are less likely on monarch to try this tactic). If attacked via worker steal, he is more likely to build more units, but he doesnt forget about building another worker down the road when he feels safe and he will not be as ******** as say Warlords AI.

At turn 49, Shaka will probably be building a second settler (he'll have a second city by then surely). He might have even completed a second settler if his land is productive enough. We need a better look at his land to be able to predict this.

As with any "rush", a cost benefit analysis has to be made. Certainly removal of Shaka is necessary. If we believe we can make 4 axes (140 hammers), and in so doing acquire 160 hammers worth of property (settler+worker), it certainly makes sense to do so unless our tech rate is greatly compromised. So I am still against it but that is my analysis.

Well, success or failure, our tech rate will be greatly compromised unless the Zulu capital has some gold/gems mines. The maintenance would further push back the date for CoL.

Indeed. But to keep the worker busy he will finish that mine and not have anything to do but chop, right? Am I remembering his sequence correctly? With roads we can preconnect that hill to the south and the 3 hills west/sw or continue roading to Shaka if that makes 1 turn difference on a 1-2 axe plan.

Yes, if we research BW next, the worker will be able to finish the mine and start chopping the same turn BW completes, which is nice timing. If there is copper nearby, the worker could mine the copper after the southern mine while Wheel finishes, if you want an axe rush.

If we don't want to try a pre-turn-50 axe rush, then Wheel is not as important as Writing.

 

[Mad Professor]

Well, success or failure, our tech rate will be greatly compromised unless the Zulu capital has some gold/gems mines. The maintenance would further push back the date for CoL.

Yes - it is good to give some consideration to how much this rush we're talking about reduces our chances of that Oracle-CS sligshot. Remember Bureacracy will turn our capital into a very nice spot indeed. The GP points from the oracle will be handy too... I wouldn't want to see us miss that sligshot by a couple of turns! (painful memories take a long time to go away!)

 

[Cactus Pete]

kc's upgrading idea is interesting, but stealing a worker and/or preventing Shaka from hooking up a metal seems more likely to be the wise course of action.

Would Shaka's city archers be more likely to attack a warrior in their territory (if not a scout)? My experience is that when a settler and archer leave a city, a new archer is usually built the following turn or very shortly thereafter.

 

[leif erikson]

Made a new save with Shaka in the proper place. Played it through the first 19 turns.

Sorry, the Scout is 1-tile off...

Should get to do some trials in the morning. For now, off to