SGOTM 08 - XTeam

I was just looking at SCT's game to CS sling. He did not research Sailing nor Masonry. In addition, we would need a Galley to transport the Settler there.

SCT produced an XL spreadsheet of the game which can be found in this post.

Seems like we are closing in on settling in place?

We should test the tech path Fred has laid out above and see how his predictions work out. :)
 
Just played a quick test using SCT's excellent spreadsheet as a guide. The difference is that I inserted Sailing and Masonry before Writing. Built a Galley and settled the Ivory tile. Built both The Great Lighthouse and The Oracle by Turn 84 - 775 BC. Got a Great Merchant who can bulb Currency.

I think I could improve on this date by a few turns by better planned chops. (played quickly) Also had a Barb raider come calling. :rolleyes:

The save file is attached below.
 
I would rather have some data points since this is what my program can readily use.

OK, try (0,9), (100,120), (167,475), and (250,1350), and add in 7 great scientists for bulbing between turn 125-250.

Religious Victory is an option that requires a minimum of hammers to achieve as JT remarked earlier. War can be fought with many types of units. If we shoot for an earlier victory we must obviously use the units available at that time.

Domination/conquest is probably not an economical VC since we need to spend time and hammers capturing cities without any Wonders. If most Wonders are indeed built in a few cities it may be better to capture them one by one using a smaller army. A difference in E(t)/t of 0.25 is the equivalent of about 7 wonders so even if the capture gap is a little more difficult to close we can afford this.

If we try for a midgame religious victory, there may be several wonders that we can't capture in time, and several shirnes that dont get built. The other difficulty is that any AI we declare war on to capture wonders is unlikely to vote for us. With the new patch, I understand it that Religious victory requires getting several AI on your side.

Maybe I should reiterate the chain of thoughts behind the strategy simulations:

  • As we all know the goal of the game is to maximize W(t)/t = 5*#Wonders/#turns for the turn where the game is won.
  • As shown earlier W(t)/t is upper bounded by E(t)/t where E(t) is 5 times the number of Wonders that can be built or are already built at turn t.
  • In order to maximize W(t)/t we should try to maximize E(t)/t and at the same time close the build gap which is (5x) the number of Wonders that can be built but are not yet built and the capture gap which is (5x) the number of Wonders owned by the AI.
  • So far the simulations I have done indicate that E(t)/t has a maximum when researching up to Theology, Civil Service, Machinery, Engineering, Alphabet, Currency, Literature, Education, Philosophy, Astronomy, Divine Right and Military Tradition. Compared to a beeline for Mass Media there seems to be a difference of 0.26 in E(t)/t which is considerable since a winning score is probably somewhere around 1.0

We can, of course, choose to forgo the extra 0.26 in E(t)/t because it seems easier to close the build and capture gaps if we tech further on. Or we can choose not to lower the bar and take up the challenge of meeting the - admittedly - more difficult task of closing the gaps with fewer techs at our disposal.

I think you may be underestimating the exponential nature of the beaker rate. Not only do beakers increase exponentially, but great scientists are a lot easier to come by in the second half of the game, with Great Library, National Epic, Pacifism, and higher happiness cap for more specialists. Great scientists can bulb much of the Mass Media and Medicine beelines.

Combined with the fact that a longer game gives us more time for the AI to build shrines, and more time for us to capture wonders, I don't see a longer game as less ambitious.
 
Just played a quick test using SCT's excellent spreadsheet as a guide. The difference is that I inserted Sailing and Masonry before Writing. Built a Galley and settled the Ivory tile. Built both The Great Lighthouse and The Oracle by Turn 84 - 775 BC. Got a Great Merchant who can bulb Currency.

I think I could improve on this date by a few turns by better planned chops. (played quickly) Also had a Barb raider come calling. :rolleyes:

The save file is attached below.

I also tried KC's idea of settling second city on marble before starting Oracle. I was able to finish Oracle and Great Lighthouse on turn 75, 3 turns later than my spreadsheeted game. If we pull it off, we're in really good position. If we miss Oracle by 1-3 turns, we will be set back. Maybe some more testing of AI Oracle dates is needed, especially after my turnset when we find out more about some of our opponents.

Looks like we're getting consensus for settling in place. Unless someone finds a compeling reason to settle in the cows, my turnset can consist of:

1) Settling in place, building worker, and starting on a warrior
2) Researching AH, then Fishing
3) Pasturing cows, then mining gold
4) Scouting city locations and AI rush possibilities.
 
It seems counter-intuitive that giving up the cow (and forests) for slightly earlier development would be optimal in a 250-turn game during which we want to build maximum wonders?

BTW, kc, do you think your Vols are missing David Cuttcliffe?
They are missing a QB, heart, recruited talent, AND coaching. A pretty sorry bunch and I think Im cutting off my donations.

I think if we finish Oracle by T75 there is a good shot of success unless we discover nasty Oracle building AIs like Isabella, Indians, or someone random who starts with marble and goes religious path.
 
ShannonCT said:
If we try for a midgame religious victory, there may be several wonders that we can't capture in time, and several shirnes that dont get built.

What does "Capture in time" mean? Before what? As I understand the Religious VC can be proposed when you want if you control the AP.

ShannonCT said:
The other difficulty is that any AI we declare war on to capture wonders is unlikely to vote for us. With the new patch, I understand it that Religious victory requires getting several AI on your side.

I thought it was the number of votes, not the number of AI's that mattered. Do we need more than one AI to vote for us?

ShannonCT said:
I think you may be underestimating the exponential nature of the beaker rate. Not only do beakers increase exponentially, but great scientists are a lot easier to come by in the second half of the game, with Great Library, National Epic, Pacifism, and higher happiness cap for more specialists.

Beaker rate is hardly exponential, more likely it follows the logistic function also known as the s-curve since the growth in beakers will eventually be limited.

ShannonCT said:
Combined with the fact that a longer game gives us more time for the AI to build shrines, and more time for us to capture wonders, I don't see a longer game as less ambitious.

By definition a longer game gives us more time. But it also decreases the score W(t)/t as t grows so I don't understand this argument.
 
ShannonCT said:
OK, try (0,9), (100,120), (167,475), and (250,1350)

I tried with these numbers instead. The overall picture is the same but the difference in E(t)/t decreases from 0.25 to 0.1. If Astronomy is not required the E(t)/t difference is now 0.15. Conclusion is that we pass the point of maximum E(t)/(t) when researching past MilTrad and Divine Right.
 
I tried with these numbers instead. The overall picture is the same but the difference in E(t)/t decreases from 0.25 to 0.1. If Astronomy is not required the E(t)/t difference is now 0.15. Conclusion is that we pass the point of maximum E(t)/(t) when researching past MilTrad and Divine Right.
:thanx: Nice work Fred, this is certainly the type of thing I have been trying to figure out. I think it sets an early goal that we should shoot for.

I've been staring at the tech tree again. :mischief: It is interesting that the lower half of the tree opens up few wonders until we get past Astronomy and Chemistry. The upper half is wonder rich! In the tech tree, if we draw a line that goes Optics, Theology, Paper, Printing Press to Military Tradition, along with the oddity of Astronomy, that would seem to be our goal.

Controlling Pyramids then becomes very important because it would allow us to use Universal Suffrage and Gold Rushing as our tech path does not include Democracy.

Gaining 7 Great Scientists would allow us to move up the lower half of the tree to pick up Astronomy, if needed, and Education for Oxford.

I think we should run a couple of test games to see how this pans out. The question is whether we should play the first set to do any map adjustments that may help us sharpen this strategy as it would allow us to play on more of the map we would know?

I think SCT's goals for a first turn set are things we have come to a consensus on?
 
What does "Capture in time" mean? Before what? As I understand the Religious VC can be proposed when you want if you control the AP.

I thought it was the number of votes, not the number of AI's that mattered. Do we need more than one AI to vote for us?

The vote comes up in regular intervals (every 4 turns maybe). But, by "capture in time", I mean that if we stop research at MT/Astro/DR, and expect to win soon after by closing the build and capture gaps, we will need to have the military in place to take on several AI within a short period of time (especially if Astro is a must). I guess we would want to research Astro early to start sending units to far away AI wonders, then MT to get some better units. How long will it take to capture all of the AI wonders and holy cities after finishing MT and DR? If we expect that those techs are the last ones to increse E(t), we had better have all of the wonders captured and built a few turns after stopping research, or E(t)/t will decrease below the later spike at Communism/MM/Medicine.


To win by AP vote, I believe the strategy is: (Can anyone else confirm?)

1) Found at least one religion that no one else will adopt, and spread it to all of your cities. If someone else's religion spreads to you, adopt it to get good relations with them.

2) Just before completing the AP, switch religions to the one you founded but no one else has adopted (maybe Taoism). The AP is now locked into that religion.

3) Spread the AP religion to your ally, but not so much that he'll switch to that religion. If anyone adopts the AP religion, they will be elligible to vote themselves victor.

4) Just before you are ready to win by AP vote, spread the AP religion to all of the other AI, preferably to one small city each (votes are based on population of cities with AP religion). Once everyone has at least one city with the AP religion and if you control less than 75% of the votes, the victory vote will come up shortly.


So 3 and 4 are the tricky parts in a game like this. We have to have at least one ally to vote for us. We need +8 relations with that ally. So we probably can't capture any wonders or holy cities from that ally, or +8 will be out of reach. +8 takes time to reach, so it may only be possible with someone we've known for a while, and someone that shares our religion (but not the AP religion). Any wonders that those potential allies have built are ones we can't capture. Will we find an AI like that? Time will tell. As for part 4, we need to spread the AP religion to all of the AI before we can get the vote. We would need to spread the AP religion before we started attacking them for their wonders, because after we've attacked, open borders will be tough. Open borders may be difficult with one or two AI anyway, and if any have adopted Theocracy, that's another problem. Again, time will tell if the game aligns well for a religious victory.

Beaker rate is hardly exponential, more likely it follows the logistic function also known as the s-curve since the growth in beakers will eventually be limited.

In my practice games, the derivative of the BPT function still seems to be increasing at the time I get to Communism/MM/Medicine. You've got lots of maturing cottages (with PP bonus), Oxford increasing in power, GP farm producing GPs faster despite the increasing cost, extra specialists from Sushi (and Cristo for free switches to Representation), extra gold from Wall Street/CorporateHQ/Shines city, big increase in happiness/health/food from the Hollywood/Rock/Broadway resources being traded to AI, capturing well-cottaged AI cities quite easily with Currassier/Airship/Frigate combo, etc.

I'll play a better-documented practice game through to Astro/MT/DR, and then on to Communism/MM/Medicine to see where E(t)/t really stands at those points.

By definition a longer game gives us more time. But it also decreases the score W(t)/t as t grows so I don't understand this argument.

Well, if W(t) grows faster than t, we should keep playing longer.
 
I think we are consensus as well on the first turns. Now, should we stop play a) if we meet someone or b) DONT meet anyone and it appears we are on an island? I think so, as we would need to a) decide how to handle the first/second AI and b) we might have to work an extra workboat into the calculations if we can get to another landmass to meet some others.

I think J. Thunder is going to be back soon. Wait for him?

Someone mentioned "earlier to war." This is of course a possibility depending on resources (copper/horses). I think it is unlikely to help us as far as bpt as opposed to hammers into units rather than increasing bpt (ie, threatens Oracle slingshot), but we can definitely make those assessments after seeing a bit more about what we encounter. In the scenario that copper/horses are in the BFC, AND we have a peaceful builder AI (that might build Oracle, like Indians) then the value of early rush is increased to a point where it might be much more beneficial. On Normal speed this is a tough call without knowing more.
 
It doesn't always work, but sometimes you can gift a missionary to a civ in theocracy and they may: a) disband it b) put it to sleep in a city or c) actually use it to spread the religion. I've had all happen.
 
I think J. Thunder is going to be back soon. Wait for him?
JT said he would be back from vacation on the 27th, 4 more days.

At this point, where it seems to me we are at consensus on our basic way forward for at least 20 to 75 turns, I think we could play the first turn set in order to get a look around at the map to our west, see if anyone else is on this land mass and see what city sites may be available. With that info, we can update a map and probably conduct some better testing? No?

If the team wishes to wait, that is fine with me. :)
 
Unless someone wants to defend the idea of settling on cows, I think we're all set for playing through Animal Husbandry and Fishing (turn 19 I believe). I can stop after Fishing so we can leave the option open to research or delay BW. Workboats can't be built until second turnset, so there's no question there.

I can play tonight unless there is an objection.
 
I notice Smurkz appears to be preparing for a chariot or axe rush. That is the only way I can explain their power of 28 at turn 41. It's not possible to get BW and IW between turn 20 and 41, unless skipping Fishing. A power of 28 could come from researching AH, BW, Wheel, and having 1 warrior, 1 axeman, and Pop4-5. It could also come from 2 chariots instead of warrior and axeman. If we don't find horses near the start, we can expect to find copper on one of the 4 nearby grass tiles.

I notice that the new BtS patch has changed the power values of a lot of the units. The old Demographics Screen Explained article is not current.

Edit: Smurkz's new power graph only went up 1 in ten turns, so maybe they're trying a limited rush or worker stealing.
 
I can play tonight unless there is an objection.
I think you may proceed through Fishing. :thumbsup:

Edit: Smurkz's new power graph only went up 1 in ten turns, so maybe they're trying a limited rush or worker stealing.
Let's see if we can figure out what they're up too. :mischief:

Could they be defending a Barb infestation? :rolleyes:

wow.. pretty weak in the spam department here... just thought I would try and help.. Cheers fellas.. good luck

it is nice however that you have added another mistfitzian avatar to your club :p
Hello Mistfit!! :wavey:

How are the cold lands of northern Michigan? Hope you have been well. :cheers:

:thanx: for the spam, we could use a bit... :p
 
Back
Top Bottom