SGOTM 11 - Fifth Element

The first thing i did was to open the HoF page to see which VC is the fastest on Epic/Emperor/Standard map.
At present, there's a 1708 for Cultural and a 1556 for Diplo. Both players are good players, even if not Top players.
In fact, if you just read the Small map games, you can see that Jesusin (definitely one of the best players around and a specialist in Cultural) beaten Misotu's Diplo by 2 years. Misotu is a good player, if not a top player.

I did some checking as well a few weeks back. I compared the finish dates of all BtS GOTM games and found that on average, the fastest diplo victory was 100 years faster than the fastest cultural victory.

So, assuming we all agree that diplo is the way to go, can we put this decision behind us and plot our course accordingly? Or do we need to discuss this further? Don't be shy to speak up if you think we should be targeting cultural. It's best that we have consensus on this point as this is in fact a very major decision. Once we've decided and started the game, we can't change our minds. Or if we do, our victory date will be severely sub-optimal.
 
It would be nice if we could agree on our initial turn set sooner rather than later. That way, we can start the game while we are discussing some of the longer-term strategy decisions (e.g. number of great people desired, their timing and uses, tech path, etc.). The reason it would be good to start is that we'll hopefully meet a few of our neighbors, find a few of the key resources we need, etc., which will make our discussions much more focused on our game rather than "what if" scenarios (e.g. what if we have an agressive AI near us). Also, I think our starting sequence would be very similar no matter what our long-term strategy decision is... unless we want to go for an early religion.

With that said, can we agree that our initial tech should be Agriculture and our initial build should be a worker?

Does anyone have any suggestions on warrior movement and/or where to settle based on the posted screen shot?

I think we can start with the first turn set once these decisions have been made (and the save is posted, of course). Or am I over simplifying things?
 
I've just been assuming we'd go diplo, as can be seen in my earlier post. Culture will also be particularly slow if we're missing four great people.

It might be nice to have culture as a backup plan if the diplomatic situation completely goes to pot though. In this case we'd probably do a high-tech culture run where we build the hollywood wonders, and have sushi and jewelers and biology-fueled artists running in the key cities (and any city in danger of generating non-artist great people). I don't think we should get too carried away preparing for this possibility though.
 
It would be nice if we could agree on our initial turn set sooner rather than later. That way, we can start the game while we are discussing some of the longer-term strategy decisions (e.g. number of great people desired, their timing and uses, tech path, etc.). The reason it would be good to start is that we'll hopefully meet a few of our neighbors, find a few of the key resources we need, etc., which will make our discussions much more focused on our game rather than "what if" scenarios (e.g. what if we have an agressive AI near us). Also, I think our starting sequence would be very similar no matter what our long-term strategy decision is... unless we want to go for an early religion.

With that said, can we agree that our initial tech should be Agriculture and our initial build should be a worker?

Does anyone have any suggestions on warrior movement and/or where to settle based on the posted screen shot?

I think we can start with the first turn set once these decisions have been made (and the save is posted, of course). Or am I over simplifying things?
I think i can gather some point of discussion in #3, at least the ones to start the first turnset.
Agri first if we dont go for an early religion is mandatory with 2 corns.

I've just been assuming we'd go diplo, as can be seen in my earlier post. Culture will also be particularly slow if we're missing four great people.

It might be nice to have culture as a backup plan if the diplomatic situation completely goes to pot though. In this case we'd probably do a high-tech culture run where we build the hollywood wonders, and have sushi and jewelers and biology-fueled artists running in the key cities (and any city in danger of generating non-artist great people). I don't think we should get too carried away preparing for this possibility though.
I've thought to a plan B. But that plan would not give us any laurel for sure. Just avoid the shame to lose a game.
 
Very clever. I like it. :goodjob: This will allow us to avoid negative diplo points for not having the same religion (thus winning the UN election) while still meeting the state religion requirement.
I am going to assume that you figure we will only have a city or two with a religion held by a majority of the AIs, while we will have spammed our own (either founded or borrowed) religion in each of our cities. That situation sounds feasible, except we have to plan ahead our religion-switching--if we switch to a religion that many AIs have and win the game 2 turns later, then we will lose the game, as it takes 5 turns of delay to switch back to the other religion (unless we plan to build the Christo Redentor). So, switching religions after the UN is built will have to be well-planned out.
 
I've just been assuming we'd go diplo, as can be seen in my earlier post. Culture will also be particularly slow if we're missing four great people.


I agree on the diplo.

It might be nice to have culture as a backup plan if the diplomatic situation completely goes to pot though. In this case we'd probably do a high-tech culture run where we build the hollywood wonders, and have sushi and jewelers and biology-fueled artists running in the key cities (and any city in danger of generating non-artist great people). I don't think we should get too carried away preparing for this possibility though.

I don't think we even need to plan for this contingency. If we are going to commit to the diplo, then we need to go full throttle towards it. Making any backup plan will just make us stray from the main plan and will cost us turns. We really have to all agree that our plan is to win and not to just not lose. There is a difference.
 
I agree on the diplo.

I don't think we even need to plan for this contingency. If we are going to commit to the diplo, then we need to go full throttle towards it. Making any backup plan will just make us stray from the main plan and will cost us turns. We really have to all agree that our plan is to win and not to just not lose. There is a difference.
Holy words.


BTW, our 2 new members don't give sign. If i see nothing by tomorrow morning (say 14-15 hours from now) i'll inform AlanH and ask him to contact them.

The game will start tomorrow and i think we can take any needed decision in 5.
I posted some questions on my #3:
here my votes
VC: Diplo
Warrior: SW

roster: it's a custom for this team that will be a new member to play the first TS.
I propose Irgy, since he's the only one of you 3 newbies :lol: which can play.

It already seems Diplo is decided. please confirm.
If you have anything you wanna add to that #3, just speak and i will do.
 
Roster: (strict alphabetical order, yet to be decided)
Blubmuz
Dhoomstriker
Havr
Irgy
Mitchum
Tata
Unclethrill
I vote Irgy first.


Decisions to be discussed before to start:
1) Roster
2) victory condition:
a) Diplo
b) Culture
Definitely Diplo IMO.
3) Where to move the warrior (5):
NE
N
NW
W
SW
SW since that is the best direction to show squares in the first turn.


Decisions to be discussed after the warrior move:
4) where to settle

The warrior may discover something but as it stands right now, in place looks pretty good.

5) first tech - this decision can influence what to build next, since if we decide for b) we don't need a worker soon
a) Agri
b) religion (poly or medi)
I think Agri so that we can improve those corns. That also would indicate a worker build out of the gate. It will take about 20 turns to get the worker out but two improved corn will make up the slowed growth pretty quick
Strategy:
not planned yet

Mid-term plan:
not planned yet

Diplomacy:

TS 01 Plan (save on turn 20): attention: DRAFT!
Civics/Religion

Research

Builds

Units

Links to previous Pre-Play-Plans
Spoiler :
- Mitchum
TS02 - Unclethrill




One thing we need to include in our discussions is the military size. We need to have a large enough military to protect our cities if we get declared on by the AI but if part of our plan is to goad a couple AI into declaring on us we need to be sufficiently weak so that they will declare.
 
I'll be watching this from the sideline. I'll maintain my thread viewing lockdown until it's confirmed that you guys aren't in a major player shortage though my time is somewhat limited these days anyways.

I would say the interesting things are:

-The limitations on DOW to only 2 independent AI. Why 2? Makes me think there's some serious map edit which makes the DOW compulsory. Bribing AI to DOW and into DOW will be absolutely essential.

-Diplo victory is for sure the right call. Having to burn 4GP in such a manner makes a Cultural victory so far out of the realm it's unthinkable to me. I think the cultural victory was put in place just in case the players got to an impossible Diplo condition and didn't want to submit a loss.

-I think whomever said that diplo relations and cold calls from AI will have to be tightly managed. One poor interaction can change the whole game. Someone should manage a key interaction table with all AI once they are met. Someone should be the "lieutenant" in charge of this.

-Obviously, exploration will dictate tons of things here. It may not be worth banging heads against walls to get things set too far down the road. It seems this game is a reaction to SGOTM10 which was won in the first 5-6 turns. I think they will have taken GREAT measures to ensure that this is not the case this time.
 
I'll be watching this from the sideline. I'll maintain my thread viewing lockdown until it's confirmed that you guys aren't in a major player shortage though my time is somewhat limited these days anyways.
Culdeus, if you want to have a chance to participate on this one, or at least give us your often useful suggestions, just sign up before it's too late.
If you sign for a team, you're tied to the "no viewing other threads" rule, but you can probably better contribute to that team. And even play if you'll find time.
 
I'm happy to go first. I should start planning the first turn already then.

Does anyone know roughly what time the save game will appear? It's Friday the 23rd already here where I live now, but tomorrow morning when I have the most play time Friday will still have a long way to go in the US.

First turn set won't have too much action I'd have thought. My inclination is to settle 1SE on the plains hill for the extra hammer per turn to build the first worker, without losing either corn. Then worker first will keep the capital busy for the rest of the turn set. The warrior needs to explore, my inclination is to kind of spiral around the starting area, find all nearby coasts, and never backtrack if I can help it.

What sort of things do I need to pause and wait for a vote on?
 
I've just been assuming we'd go diplo, as can be seen in my earlier post. Culture will also be particularly slow if we're missing four great people.
A Cultural Victory won't necessarily be slower due to the Great People requirement. If we can get into a defensive war, 2 of our Great People can easily come from Great Generals. If we build a few Wonders along the way, it's usually easy to get a few of the "wrong" kinds of Great People (non-Great-Artists at any time or non-Great-Scientists early on). Most of my top cultural wins have me getting 2-3 totally useless Great People anyway--BTS makes them a BIT easier to use in Golden Ages, but often they'll come too late to be of enough help.

It might be nice to have culture as a backup plan if the diplomatic situation completely goes to pot though. In this case we'd probably do a high-tech culture run where we build the hollywood wonders, and have sushi and jewelers and biology-fueled artists running in the key cities (and any city in danger of generating non-artist great people). I don't think we should get too carried away preparing for this possibility though.
I would seriously like you to open up the game on Epic Speed and give us the numbers for the cost of a Cathedral in Hammers and the cost of each of the Broadway, Rock 'N Roll, and Hollywood Wonders. Even without the relevant bonus Resource (Marble, Stone, or Copper) I think that you'll find the results surprising. Since even I'm not exactly certain what the difference in the numbers is, it would be nice to see the numbers laid out for us all to see.
 
Let's start the discussion on this game:
I think the first decision to take is which victory will be pursued between Culture and Diplomatic.
I would like to play the Devil's Advocate here and see what kinds of points I can jot down in favour of playing a Cutural game.

"Every AI is still alive and running a state religion." = "Each AI has at least one city and is not running the Free Religion Civic"
I can't think of any other situation where an AI would not have a state religion, unless somehow they were isolated by Map-Designer-created-mountains and somehow could not get a religion spread to them--once an AI has a religion, it will convert to it automatically.

1) We will control the finishing date. With a Diplo game, we can easily lose due to missing one of the game conditions accidentally. Even with lots of tech to trade to an AI to influence them, if an AI changes their Civic to Free Speech within 5 turns of our victory date, unless we gift them the Cristo Redentor or unless they have that Wonder, we just lost the game... unless we notice and we intentionally abstain from our victory. CAN SOMEONE PLEASE CONFIRM THIS POINT: Even if we have plenty of Espionage points, we can't change an AI's Civic if they have made a Civic change within the last 5 turns, so really, we could accidentally lose due to an AI changing their Civics when we don't want them to do so. With a Cultural game, however, we can use Great Artist bombs on two Legendary cities but can save the last Great Artist Bomb or two for the 3rd Legendary City until we have all victory conditions in place, meaning that we are in control, instead of the vote timing being in control.

2) Most Cultural Victories can be won without any wars. Most Diplo games are very tough to win without any wars. DEAR BLubmuz: For all of your statistics on Diplo games, can you please cross-reference those games against Domination Land % owned by the winner? If that amount is more than 25% of the World's Land Area, then I think that those games are not eligible for comparison. Since we can't win by Diplomation, subject to a few minor exception cases that I won't get into here, only fast Diplo games where most of the world was AI-controlled should really count in your analysis of whether Diplo games really are faster than Cultural games. I'm not sure how HOF saved games work, but at least for XOTM games, you can download the submitted final saved game in order to see how much Land Area was owned by the player--if the same can be done for HOF games, then pick a few to compare and check the Land Area % values. You might as well record the Land Area %, the Total Land Area % required for Domination, and the Victory date for Diplo, and then put that info into a table for us to see. Only then will I believe that Diplo consistently beats Cultural when War is not a major contributor to the victory. Since we won't need to be in wars, as we won't benefit from them very much, Cultural has a major advantage here: we will have friendly relations, good tech and Resource trades--even beyond the WFYABTA limits, and we will hardly need any land area to win: 7-8 self-built cities are sometimes enough if you can culturally subsume 1-2 in the "cultural push" stage, but 9 self-built cities would be enough for sure. Diplo would need a bigger, more corrupt empire and we'd probably anger many AIs on the way to getting such an empire. Ivory is hard to trade for if the AI controlling it doesn't like you a lot, so we'd likely be able to get the trade in our more peaceful Cultural game, and the only city that we'd need to capture is the Barb City on or near the Fur Resource.

3) Here's a biggie: We won't need a lot of tech for a Cultural game. So, the AIs won't get a lot of tech from us in trades. The overall tech pace of a Cultural game is much slower than in a Diplo game. In most of my Diplo games, many of the AIs get to Liberalism and are thus danger factors for switching to Free Religion. In my Cultural games, most AIs don't get as far as learning Liberalism, giving us a huge safety margin on the Civic-shifting potential problem of the AIs.

4) There is no "dealing with failure" that you often see in a Diplo game--things can go wrong and go wrong quickly in a Diplo game. Not enough AIs like you at the right time or you get a Demand by one "ally" to stop trades with another "ally," and then you lose one of your voting allies at the last minute. In a Cultural game, we'd only be worried about being declared on--no AI will be near Space, no AI will possibly steal a Diplo game from us--and since we're spreading religions around, we'll certainly spread the Apostolic Palace's religion around enough to prevent an AI Apostolic Victory. No other way to lose. But in a Diplo game, the AIs can vote someone else to be the winner. They're getting closer to Tanks and will have other high-tech items such as Destroyers and Air Ships, so they'll have higher power ratios that will make them more likely to attack us. They might even get close to Space if we keep failing our Diplo votes. With the Cultural game, as long as we keep our relations good, then we won't get into any wars and victory will be smooth sailing.

5) Since we'll be able to focus on spreading religions around instead of building military units, we'll have enough religions that we can switch religions upon AI-request without hurting our empire's Religious Civic bonus. With a Diplo game, we won't have the Hammer output to be able to do so.
 
I'm happy to go first. I should start planning the first turn already then.
If that's the case, while you wait, you can whip up a practice game with the same initial layout as the real game. We'll need something similar if we're going to intelligently discuss where we're going to Settle and what we'll build during your turnset. Be sure to mimic as many game settings as the real game as possible--game Speed, Leader, Map Type and sub-options (including Huts/No Huts, etc).
 
I'm happy to go first. I should start planning the first turn already then.

Does anyone know roughly what time the save game will appear? It's Friday the 23rd already here where I live now, but tomorrow morning when I have the most play time Friday will still have a long way to go in the US.

First turn set won't have too much action I'd have thought. My inclination is to settle 1SE on the plains hill for the extra hammer per turn to build the first worker, without losing either corn. Then worker first will keep the capital busy for the rest of the turn set. The warrior needs to explore, my inclination is to kind of spiral around the starting area, find all nearby coasts, and never backtrack if I can help it.

What sort of things do I need to pause and wait for a vote on?
Brakes on!
- What if that hill is the only one we have? we'll gain 1 hammer for 20 or so turns and we'll lose 2H+1C for the rest of the game, not mentioning the forested GL hill 2N+1E of the settler.
- We're Gandhi: what about an early religion?

Once you'll have the save, you'll move the warrior and post a screenie. then we can discuss where to settle, the research and therefore if go worker first or warrior first. After that, we probably need a week or so to define a strategy for the early game.
- Beeline to Alpha to trade for all workers techs but Agri? (this time i think Agri is mandatory)
- In case, which path? (pottery, AH or PH?)

Unfortunately, we need to climb the hill to better see the East, but this delay our settling by 2 turns, since any tile around the river is forested. And this can hurt even on Epic. I usually spend 1 turn to try a better site for the Capital, but settling E of the hill will bring the corns outside the BFC.
 
I would like to play the Devil's Advocate here and see what kinds of points I can jot down in favour of playing a Cutural game.

Nice, mainly by the best diplo date of last GotM

"Every AI is still alive and running a state religion." = "Each AI has at least one city and is not running the Free Religion Civic"
I can't think of any other situation where an AI would not have a state religion, unless somehow they were isolated by Map-Designer-created-mountains and somehow could not get a religion spread to them--once an AI has a religion, it will convert to it automatically.

Sure.
But Orange, Darius, Elizabeth and Asoka have FR as favourite civic. And any leader will adopt that civic in the same turn he learn the needed tech.
I just hope the mapmaker not choose any of them, but instead others with OR or Theocracy.
But with many of them a diplo vote can be hard, if they're running a different religion.
This can be a point in favor of the Cultural option.


1) We will control the finishing date. With a Diplo game, we can easily lose due to missing one of the game conditions accidentally. Even with lots of tech to trade to an AI to influence them, if an AI changes their Civic to Free Speech within 5 turns of our victory date, unless we gift them the Cristo Redentor or unless they have that Wonder, we just lost the game... unless we notice and we intentionally abstain from our victory. CAN SOMEONE PLEASE CONFIRM THIS POINT: Even if we have plenty of Espionage points, we can't change an AI's Civic if they have made a Civic change within the last 5 turns, so really, we could accidentally lose due to an AI changing their Civics when we don't want them to do so. With a Cultural game, however, we can use Great Artist bombs on two Legendary cities but can save the last Great Artist Bomb or two for the 3rd Legendary City until we have all victory conditions in place, meaning that we are in control, instead of the vote timing being in control.

Sure

2) Most Cultural Victories can be won without any wars. Most Diplo games are very tough to win without any wars. DEAR BLubmuz: For all of your statistics on Diplo games, can you please cross-reference those games against Domination Land % owned by the winner? If that amount is more than 25% of the World's Land Area, then I think that those games are not eligible for comparison. Since we can't win by Diplomation, subject to a few minor exception cases that I won't get into here, only fast Diplo games where most of the world was AI-controlled should really count in your analysis of whether Diplo games really are faster than Cultural games. I'm not sure how HOF saved games work, but at least for XOTM games, you can download the submitted final saved game in order to see how much Land Area was owned by the player--if the same can be done for HOF games, then pick a few to compare and check the Land Area % values. You might as well record the Land Area %, the Total Land Area % required for Domination, and the Victory date for Diplo, and then put that info into a table for us to see. Only then will I believe that Diplo consistently beats Cultural when War is not a major contributor to the victory. Since we won't need to be in wars, as we won't benefit from them very much, Cultural has a major advantage here: we will have friendly relations, good tech and Resource trades--even beyond the WFYABTA limits, and we will hardly need any land area to win: 7-8 self-built cities are sometimes enough if you can culturally subsume 1-2 in the "cultural push" stage, but 9 self-built cities would be enough for sure. Diplo would need a bigger, more corrupt empire and we'd probably anger many AIs on the way to getting such an empire. Ivory is hard to trade for if the AI controlling it doesn't like you a lot, so we'd likely be able to get the trade in our more peaceful Cultural game, and the only city that we'd need to capture is the Barb City on or near the Fur Resource.

The HoF games are downloadable. I can do it and i'll do it soon. I just hope they are in BtS 3.19, otherwise i cannot open them.

3) Here's a biggie: We won't need a lot of tech for a Cultural game. So, the AIs won't get a lot of tech from us in trades. The overall tech pace of a Cultural game is much slower than in a Diplo game. In most of my Diplo games, many of the AIs get to Liberalism and are thus danger factors for switching to Free Religion. In my Cultural games, most AIs don't get as far as learning Liberalism, giving us a huge safety margin on the Civic-shifting potential problem of the AIs.

4) There is no "dealing with failure" that you often see in a Diplo game--things can go wrong and go wrong quickly in a Diplo game. Not enough AIs like you at the right time or you get a Demand by one "ally" to stop trades with another "ally," and then you lose one of your voting allies at the last minute. In a Cultural game, we'd only be worried about being declared on--no AI will be near Space, no AI will possibly steal a Diplo game from us--and since we're spreading religions around, we'll certainly spread the Apostolic Palace's religion around enough to prevent an AI Apostolic Victory. No other way to lose. But in a Diplo game, the AIs can vote someone else to be the winner. They're getting closer to Tanks and will have other high-tech items such as Destroyers and Air Ships, so they'll have higher power ratios that will make them more likely to attack us. They might even get close to Space if we keep failing our Diplo votes. With the Cultural game, as long as we keep our relations good, then we won't get into any wars and victory will be smooth sailing.

5) Since we'll be able to focus on spreading religions around instead of building military units, we'll have enough religions that we can switch religions upon AI-request without hurting our empire's Religious Civic bonus. With a Diplo game, we won't have the Hammer output to be able to do so.
FYI, my top-hated VCs are:
1) AP
2) Diplo
3) Culture

My preferred:
1) Space
2) Time

Sometimes funny
1) conquest
2) domination

Please note: all (the non-hated, i mean) those VCs need a large and military strong empire.
 
BLubmuz can attest to the fact that my first inclination was a cultural win. I didn't have the reasons laid out like Doom did, I just know that a peaceful game that needs a diplo win can be difficult and I'm not real good with kissing the AI butt to the level we will need to to make it work.

I agree that we need to step back and revisit what victory condition will be our objective.

If we go culture then we only need to tech to the mid point in the tech tree and then sit back and just cruise. We can build wonders and military and just turtle for the most part. This may be a winning scenario.
 
I am going to assume that you figure we will only have a city or two with a religion held by a majority of the AIs, while we will have spammed our own (either founded or borrowed) religion in each of our cities. That situation sounds feasible, except we have to plan ahead our religion-switching--if we switch to a religion that many AIs have and win the game 2 turns later, then we will lose the game, as it takes 5 turns of delay to switch back to the other religion (unless we plan to build the Christo Redentor). So, switching religions after the UN is built will have to be well-planned out.

Agreed. But likely we wouldn't switch to the predominate state religion only two turns before the vote. We would want to do it much earlier so that the diplo bonus has time to grow to its maximum.

Regarding our state religion vs. theirs, in my GOTM diplo victory, I spread my state religion to every city of my AI voting block well before the vote took place so that everyone was in MY state religion. If we have the time and hammers to build a bunch of missionaries, this could be a viable option in this game as well. It all depends on the religion situation in our game.
 
I would like to play the Devil's Advocate here and see what kinds of points I can jot down in favour of playing a Cutural game...

I'm all for Devil's Advocate.

I'm going to quote just the bits I want to respond to, I apologise if something ends up out of context.

1) We will control the finishing date. With a Diplo game, we can easily lose due to missing one of the game conditions accidentally...

We have some control over the victory date for diplo as well, just not quite as fine control. My understanding was that spies switching civics are not at all limited by the 5-turns between revolutions rule. I will confirm this in a game. Diplomatic has the advantage that we can spend a good few turns with the EP slider turned high once we research Mass Media, while we build the UN and wait for the votes. AIs who want to run Free Religeon should already be in it, and we can wait until the victory turn itself to switch them out if needs be (need to be careful of spy failures though). AIs who aren't running free religeon by then we shouldn't have to worry about.

... Cultural has a major advantage here: we will have friendly relations, good tech and Resource trades--even beyond the WFYABTA limits, and we will hardly need any land area to win: 7-8 self-built cities are sometimes enough if you can culturally subsume 1-2 in the "cultural push" stage, but 9 self-built cities would be enough for sure. Diplo would need a bigger, more corrupt empire and we'd probably anger many AIs on the way to getting such an empire.

We can win a diplomatic game without a big empire as well. We should be self-building the UN regardless, so there's no need to be the population leader. With diplomation out, we are going to need to be on good terms with AIs even more so than in a culture game. We absolutely should not be declaring on AIs to grab more land in this game. We should only declare in order to secure the required resources, and possibly to turn a AI who dislikes us into a Vassal who votes for us if we have the resources we need.

At the time of the vote, I imagine we should have:
* 2 vassals
* 2 or 3 AIs who we are on good enough terms with to vote for us
* 1 or 2 hopefull smaller AIs whose votes we don't need. We should still try to please these but not at the cost of others.

Basically I can't see why we would have better relations with AIs in a culture victory than a diplo victory. Diplo we should be focusing entirely on having as good relations as possible with other AIs

.... In my Cultural games, most AIs don't get as far as learning Liberalism, giving us a huge safety margin on the Civic-shifting potential problem of the AIs.

?! I can't imagine a culture victory before the AIs have yet to even research as far as Liberalism. Maybe some are happy to skip it, but they'd certainly be able to reach it by the victory turn. The AIs that skip it are the AIs that probably won't run free religeon anyway.

Maybe it's just that I play exclusively on higher difficulties, on Cheiften or something I can imagine it's possible. This game is on Emporer though, and I can't see it happening.

5) Since we'll be able to focus on spreading religions around instead of building military units, we'll have enough religions that we can switch religions upon AI-request without hurting our empire's Religious Civic bonus. With a Diplo game, we won't have the Hammer output to be able to do so.

What exactly are we spending our hammers on in a diplo game? If it's going to be a 'proper' diplomatic victory rather than diplomation, we shouldn't be building a huge war machine. We don't need to build anything at all in a diplo victory other than the UN. The only thing we should need to go to war for is the resources, which is a requirement of any strategy.


Overall, I think diplo is indeed riskier than culture (although both have their risks), but the best game is going to be a diplo game. If we're playing to win rather than safely make our way to the middle, we should aim for Diplomatic.
 
Dhoomstriker, you bring up some very good points. I'd like to address a few of them.
1) We will control the finishing date. With a Diplo game, we can easily lose due to missing one of the game conditions accidentally. Even with lots of tech to trade to an AI to influence them, if an AI changes their Civic to Free Speech within 5 turns of our victory date, unless we gift them the Cristo Redentor or unless they have that Wonder, we just lost the game...

This is something that we can avoid, I think. 3 or 4 turns before our victory, couldn't we get all of the AI in our voting block to switch some civic either through espionage or trade? That way, they couldn't switch to Free Religon Religion at the last minute and spoil our party.


... and the only city that we'd need to capture is the Barb City on or near the Fur Resource.

This is an assumption. It's possible that the fur is on an isolated island and we'll need to rush to Astro to be the first to claim it. Or, it may be in the middle of another continent and we'll have to perform a late game war to claim it. We won't know until we find it.

...you get a Demand by one "ally" to stop trades with another "ally," and then you lose one of your voting allies at the last minute.

This is a risk, but there are things we can do to avoid this. By choosing our partners wisely, we won't get into this situation since no one in our voting block will be the worst enemy of another. Also, we can push one religion among our voting block so that we're all one big happy family. We can also push a separate religion to our intended target, making him the worst enemy of everyone.

5) Since we'll be able to focus on spreading religions around instead of building military units, we'll have enough religions that we can switch religions upon AI-request without hurting our empire's Religious Civic bonus. With a Diplo game, we won't have the Hammer output to be able to do so.

Again, if we share the same religion with our voting block (either we adopt theirs or spread ours), we can avoid some of these issues. I'm unsure about the military buildup being vastly different in the two games. Apparently, we'll need to at least plan on one offensive war, but maybe two, with either victory condition, so I'm not sure why the hammer requirement is so much more in a diplo game. Actually, you have to build quite a few buildings (e.g. temples, cathedrals, etc.) in a cultural game, so I would contend that the hammer requirement for a cultural game can be more.
 
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