mabraham
Deity
Last bit of autolog
Spoiler :
SGOTM 13 - Gypsy Kings
- Thread starter AlanH
- Start date
bcool
Deity
okay got it. bummer on the great scientist that must have been pretty lows odds.
Any advice you can give about next turn set or your future intentions for the numerous units would be appreciated.
Any advice you can give about next turn set or your future intentions for the numerous units would be appreciated.
bcool
Deity
PPP T262-T272
Tech Path
0% banking
Civic changes
none planned (however, I might switch to police state and/or slavery if things get crazy with unhappiness and/or maintenance for units. I will stop to consult before I do this.)
Religion Changes
none planned
Tech Trading
sell map to Willem for his map and 30 gold, sell map to joao for 30 gold (he won't sell us his)
Other Trade Opportunities and Diplomacy
Maintain current trades (until canceled by DoW) We are set to lose 2
resources, 1 from DoW with Willem and 1 from DoW from Joao
Reject "Stop Trade" demands
Reject other research demands (but will check with the team if at all possible before doing so)
Reject all demands basically.
Espionage
continue with 100% espionage on Willem, I'm considering running a few spy specialists here and there.
If we delay the DoW on Willem to T266 we should be able to rack up at least enough espionage for 2 city revolts in The Hague and Utrecht (I calculated this and included the loss of trade routes). Conceivably we could use the slider and get espionage for 3rd city revolt near the end if the 1st 2 are successful. I will run 3-6 spy specialist in the cities it makes sense to do so just to make the odds of success a little bit better and give us an option to push for 3rd city revolt option if things go our way.
Great People
not running enough specialists for this to happen in a useful timeline.
Buying Units
General Plan only buy units that accelerate the war on Joao (since he will likely be the one to fall last)
With that in mind
T262
Buy treb in SM (135 cost)
Buy treb in BF (204 cost)
--both of these purchases sync up with a galleon that can deliver 3 treb next to one of joao's cities by T255.
set up galleon buy in Nottingham by switching build in Nottingham to Galleon (max hammers)
T263
Buy Galleon in Nottingham (294 cost) (There is a serious need for transportation to Joao's lands from Old England)
--that uses up the existing gold
However, Pillaging and trading maps might get enough gold to buy FC's galleon
(FC's Galleon will also help get more units to joao faster)
T264
perhaps a treb purchase in Hastings (even if the treb finishing in 1 turn, buying the remaining production on the treb will max the OF and allows Hastings to build another treb the next turn.
T265 and beyond
I expect we will not have much gold to play with after this except from city captures and pillaging. If I have some gold from this or pillaging. I will assess where the gold gets us the most units to Joao in the most efficent manner possible.
Drafting
T262
1) London
2) York (this actually nets us happiness rather than a unit. The drafted musketeer lowers the
by 4 and increases it by 3 so a net gain of +1 )
3) none (it is tough to find another drafting site that won't cripple the city)
T263
1) London
2) BC's mistake (Cathy has a fleet of 3 caravels and 2 galleys that look like they are going for BCM) To avoid the headache of recapturing the city I'm hoping the drafted musket can fight of the amphibious landing for 4? units--hopefully some of them are catapults and won't be able to attack)
3) FH (this will load onto Beta conveniently)
T264
1) London
2) Moscow (assuming Cathy falls on this turn)
3) Nottingham
T265
1) London
2) Jelling
3) Canterbury (need more units for joao)
T266
1) London
2) Novgorod/Moscow
3) Silver Lode if its happiness issues have been lessened
T267+
wherever can get units to Joao the fastest. I will consider crippling cities at this point because I think at this point we are less than 10 turns away from victory. I will try to cripple the most useful cities last, but if I can get a musketeer on a boat for Joao I will do it. (I think even Hastings could probably draft once and not lose any hammers if there are not other pressing happiness issues for example)
City Builds
CC... wealth
FH..wealth (treb suspended)
SM buy treb T262, after wealth
PC wealth
MC... treb (consider buying T263 if flush with cash), after wealth
BF... buy treb T262, after wealth
FC... Galleon, planning to buy if have gold, and thus switching 2 coast to citizens
GH... wealth (some merchants)
SR... wealth (suspend treb)
London, musketeer adjust tiles to finish in 3 turns, then back max food and wealth, London will not reach 6 pop even if we go off max food for 3 turns.
Nottingham, Galleon with max hammers, T263 buy galleon, T263 back to max food, T264 still grows and can be drafted.
York Finish Treb this turn, then treb (draft here T262 since the MP is a net gain and no other city can easily draft without crippling itself)
Hastings Treb, Treb, Treb, Treb, Treb (consider buying a treb even if finishes in 1 turn so that the next treb finishes in 1 turn with max OF)
Canterbury Treb, Catapult (I don't think we will have the gold to finish a treb and a catapult can be built in a useful time)
Hittite Galleon (chopped out), back to musketeer, then possible Galleon if looks like gold will be available
BCM build wealth (drafts protection from Cathy's invasion fleet)
Nidaros Treb, then wealth
Uppsala wealth (a merchant instead of cottage)
Haithabu Treb, then wealth
Jelling Treb (possibly would buy here)
Bjorg Treb (possibly would buy here after a chop or 2)
Moscow Treb
Yakutsk Treb
Gemmy-wealth
Madrid Treb then wealth if things go well with izzy
Novgorod (3 revolt turns) wealth
Barcelona (4 revolt) wealth
Cordoba (4 revolt) wealth
Rostov (6 revolt) wealth
Yaroslavl (6 revolt) wealth
War Plans
Cathy
T262 pillage around St Petersburg (risking a single musket to Cathy's attacks. I believe we have 50+% odds of winning those fights so in the end if she attacks it is better for us)
I'm worried that Cathy will fight through the blockade we have with our frigate and galleon, hopeful not or hopeful we do well in those fights
T263
frigate(s) bombard St Petersburg. Treb and Cat bombard. musketeers pillage and position to attack next turn.
T264
frigate(s) bombard st petersburg. units take st. Peterburg after treb and cat sacrifice
T265 units heal as best as they can and get into position for a DoW on Willem on T266
Willem
DoW T266 (I think it is safe to delay this DoW since ideally we want to finish Willem and Joao on the same turn, and the units in Cathy/Willem lands we commit to Willem are unlikely to be able to reach Joao after Willem in a useful timeline if we rush the Willem war.
Delaying the DoW to T266 allows the spies to build up the discounts and will enable at least 2 city revolts, which despite our experience so far with them, they really do work!
Also allows 3 trebs 3 musketeers from Ragnar's area to get into position for strike on Utrecht with a presumably large stack of musketeers from Cathy's lands 1 turn behind
Allows stack of 5 healthy musketeers & 4 treb to land next to The Hague
When The Hague and Utrecht fall, the large stacks will head towards Amsterdam hopefully with several surviving treb and/or a spy that can do a 3rd city revolt.
Will send drafted reinforcements from Cathy's lands and the frigates to Rotterdam
Hopefully finishing him by T272.
Izzy
1 pop city will fall T264-5 to musketeer that is dropped off next to it (galleon will turn back to follow up only if musketeer fails (although this seems unlikely) 9 vs. 4*1.25 strength spearmen
Toledo and Seville should fall T265 (4 musketeers and 2+ treb vs. 0 defense cities)
Sulamanca could fall T266 to general led treb, mace/pike, local musketeer and possible reinforcements
That leaves the 1 pop city next the river, Zaragoza, and the 2 pop city at the end of the penisula, Valencia. Will finish those off with healthy remainders of units from the above attacks. Likely finish here T269-T270. Send survivors on to Joao asap
Joao
DoW T265
Can land 3 treb and 3 musketeers next to largish city on his west side
on T266 can land 2 stacks of 3 musketeers to pillage and disrupt reinforcements. (leftovers from Cathy war mostly)
And we should have at least 11 units of reinforcements in Old England waiting for joao
on T267 first wave of reinforcing trebs should be able to combine with musketeers stacks to take his capital.
Continue pouring the units out of England asap to flood him with units.
Galleon chaining units from izzy area as they finish up there. Possibly galleon chaining units from Willem but seems unlikely.
Stopping/Pausing Conditions
A barbarian spawns in an awkward position that I can't immediately deal with
Happiness/Maintenance costs get out of hand and I'm thinking about switching the police state and/or slavery.
start of T272
Checklist every turn before hitting end turn
double check MM and draft unhappiness expiration times
check if and what AI have researched from F4 screen
check for any barbarians
save the game
Tech Path
0% banking
Civic changes
none planned (however, I might switch to police state and/or slavery if things get crazy with unhappiness and/or maintenance for units. I will stop to consult before I do this.)
Religion Changes
none planned
Tech Trading
sell map to Willem for his map and 30 gold, sell map to joao for 30 gold (he won't sell us his)
Other Trade Opportunities and Diplomacy
Maintain current trades (until canceled by DoW) We are set to lose 2
resources, 1 from DoW with Willem and 1 from DoW from JoaoReject "Stop Trade" demands
Reject other research demands (but will check with the team if at all possible before doing so)
Reject all demands basically.
Espionage
continue with 100% espionage on Willem, I'm considering running a few spy specialists here and there.
If we delay the DoW on Willem to T266 we should be able to rack up at least enough espionage for 2 city revolts in The Hague and Utrecht (I calculated this and included the loss of trade routes). Conceivably we could use the slider and get espionage for 3rd city revolt near the end if the 1st 2 are successful. I will run 3-6 spy specialist in the cities it makes sense to do so just to make the odds of success a little bit better and give us an option to push for 3rd city revolt option if things go our way.
Great People
not running enough specialists for this to happen in a useful timeline.
Buying Units
General Plan only buy units that accelerate the war on Joao (since he will likely be the one to fall last)
With that in mind
T262
Buy treb in SM (135 cost)
Buy treb in BF (204 cost)
--both of these purchases sync up with a galleon that can deliver 3 treb next to one of joao's cities by T255.
set up galleon buy in Nottingham by switching build in Nottingham to Galleon (max hammers)
T263
Buy Galleon in Nottingham (294 cost) (There is a serious need for transportation to Joao's lands from Old England)
--that uses up the existing gold
However, Pillaging and trading maps might get enough gold to buy FC's galleon
(FC's Galleon will also help get more units to joao faster)
T264
perhaps a treb purchase in Hastings (even if the treb finishing in 1 turn, buying the remaining production on the treb will max the OF and allows Hastings to build another treb the next turn.
T265 and beyond
I expect we will not have much gold to play with after this except from city captures and pillaging. If I have some gold from this or pillaging. I will assess where the gold gets us the most units to Joao in the most efficent manner possible.
Drafting
T262
1) London
2) York (this actually nets us happiness rather than a unit. The drafted musketeer lowers the
by 4 and increases it by 3 so a net gain of +1 )3) none (it is tough to find another drafting site that won't cripple the city)
T263
1) London
2) BC's mistake (Cathy has a fleet of 3 caravels and 2 galleys that look like they are going for BCM) To avoid the headache of recapturing the city I'm hoping the drafted musket can fight of the amphibious landing for 4? units--hopefully some of them are catapults and won't be able to attack)
3) FH (this will load onto Beta conveniently)
T264
1) London
2) Moscow (assuming Cathy falls on this turn)
3) Nottingham
T265
1) London
2) Jelling
3) Canterbury (need more units for joao)
T266
1) London
2) Novgorod/Moscow
3) Silver Lode if its happiness issues have been lessened
T267+
wherever can get units to Joao the fastest. I will consider crippling cities at this point because I think at this point we are less than 10 turns away from victory. I will try to cripple the most useful cities last, but if I can get a musketeer on a boat for Joao I will do it. (I think even Hastings could probably draft once and not lose any hammers if there are not other pressing happiness issues for example)
City Builds
CC... wealth
FH..wealth (treb suspended)
SM buy treb T262, after wealth
PC wealth
MC... treb (consider buying T263 if flush with cash), after wealth
BF... buy treb T262, after wealth
FC... Galleon, planning to buy if have gold, and thus switching 2 coast to citizens
GH... wealth (some merchants)
SR... wealth (suspend treb)
London, musketeer adjust tiles to finish in 3 turns, then back max food and wealth, London will not reach 6 pop even if we go off max food for 3 turns.
Nottingham, Galleon with max hammers, T263 buy galleon, T263 back to max food, T264 still grows and can be drafted.
York Finish Treb this turn, then treb (draft here T262 since the MP is a net gain and no other city can easily draft without crippling itself)
Hastings Treb, Treb, Treb, Treb, Treb (consider buying a treb even if finishes in 1 turn so that the next treb finishes in 1 turn with max OF)
Canterbury Treb, Catapult (I don't think we will have the gold to finish a treb and a catapult can be built in a useful time)
Hittite Galleon (chopped out), back to musketeer, then possible Galleon if looks like gold will be available
BCM build wealth (drafts protection from Cathy's invasion fleet)
Nidaros Treb, then wealth
Uppsala wealth (a merchant instead of cottage)
Haithabu Treb, then wealth
Jelling Treb (possibly would buy here)
Bjorg Treb (possibly would buy here after a chop or 2)
Moscow Treb
Yakutsk Treb
Gemmy-wealth
Madrid Treb then wealth if things go well with izzy
Novgorod (3 revolt turns) wealth
Barcelona (4 revolt) wealth
Cordoba (4 revolt) wealth
Rostov (6 revolt) wealth
Yaroslavl (6 revolt) wealth
War Plans
Cathy
T262 pillage around St Petersburg (risking a single musket to Cathy's attacks. I believe we have 50+% odds of winning those fights so in the end if she attacks it is better for us)
I'm worried that Cathy will fight through the blockade we have with our frigate and galleon, hopeful not or hopeful we do well in those fights
T263
frigate(s) bombard St Petersburg. Treb and Cat bombard. musketeers pillage and position to attack next turn.
T264
frigate(s) bombard st petersburg. units take st. Peterburg after treb and cat sacrifice
T265 units heal as best as they can and get into position for a DoW on Willem on T266
Willem
DoW T266 (I think it is safe to delay this DoW since ideally we want to finish Willem and Joao on the same turn, and the units in Cathy/Willem lands we commit to Willem are unlikely to be able to reach Joao after Willem in a useful timeline if we rush the Willem war.
Delaying the DoW to T266 allows the spies to build up the discounts and will enable at least 2 city revolts, which despite our experience so far with them, they really do work!
Also allows 3 trebs 3 musketeers from Ragnar's area to get into position for strike on Utrecht with a presumably large stack of musketeers from Cathy's lands 1 turn behind
Allows stack of 5 healthy musketeers & 4 treb to land next to The Hague
When The Hague and Utrecht fall, the large stacks will head towards Amsterdam hopefully with several surviving treb and/or a spy that can do a 3rd city revolt.
Will send drafted reinforcements from Cathy's lands and the frigates to Rotterdam
Hopefully finishing him by T272.
Izzy
1 pop city will fall T264-5 to musketeer that is dropped off next to it (galleon will turn back to follow up only if musketeer fails (although this seems unlikely) 9 vs. 4*1.25 strength spearmen
Toledo and Seville should fall T265 (4 musketeers and 2+ treb vs. 0 defense cities)
Sulamanca could fall T266 to general led treb, mace/pike, local musketeer and possible reinforcements
That leaves the 1 pop city next the river, Zaragoza, and the 2 pop city at the end of the penisula, Valencia. Will finish those off with healthy remainders of units from the above attacks. Likely finish here T269-T270. Send survivors on to Joao asap
Joao
DoW T265
Can land 3 treb and 3 musketeers next to largish city on his west side
on T266 can land 2 stacks of 3 musketeers to pillage and disrupt reinforcements. (leftovers from Cathy war mostly)
And we should have at least 11 units of reinforcements in Old England waiting for joao
on T267 first wave of reinforcing trebs should be able to combine with musketeers stacks to take his capital.
Continue pouring the units out of England asap to flood him with units.
Galleon chaining units from izzy area as they finish up there. Possibly galleon chaining units from Willem but seems unlikely.
Stopping/Pausing Conditions
A barbarian spawns in an awkward position that I can't immediately deal with
Happiness/Maintenance costs get out of hand and I'm thinking about switching the police state and/or slavery.
start of T272
Checklist every turn before hitting end turn
double check MM and draft unhappiness expiration times
check if and what AI have researched from F4 screen
check for any barbarians
save the game
Ronnie1
Deity
Looks good to me!
bcool
Deity
I'll play in about 18 hours unless there is significant debate.
adrianj
Deity
I concur.
One possibility I'd like to add- consider stealing cash with our spies. City revolts are nice, but for coastal cities couldn't we use frigates instead, buying them if possible?
bcool
Deity
the 2 cities I have revolts planned are coastal however they both have castles and walls. Castles and wall reduce the rate bombardment of frigates and treb. So a frigate does 0.08*cultural defense (about 4-6% I believe) and treb do 4% I believe. We only have a total of 4 frigates in these waters 2 near each city. The frigates will take too long to bombard in my opinion. And Willem's East Indian galleons can kill frigates relatively easily.
We will have 3-4 treb and the frigates to bombard if the revolt fail.
The frigates in the north are planning to bombard the non-wall non-castle city Willem has if the revolt succeeds.
Stealing cash is only significant if the AI have a significant amount of gold on hand. I will consider it if Willem suddenly gets 300+ and we can steal a significant amount of it.
Frigates cost ~400 gold by the way so stealing the gold to buy frigates isn't quite going to happen without pillaging help.
mabraham
Deity
Checking in, no time now, will comment later.
adrianj
Deity
Nice analysis bcool. I just wanted to check it had been considered
bcool
Deity
We obviously want to finish as early as possible but looking at the score graphs it looks like finishing by T282 will beat all but Plastic Ducks and OSS. Looking good for at least a bronze
bcool
Deity
Well I'm waiting for mabraham's comments. I really wanted to play today...
bcool
Deity
Okay, I'm going to assume mabraham is busy and I'm going to play in about 30 minutes
bcool
Deity
uploaded T267 all is going better than expected...
Willem's 2 cities fell with successful revolts!!! we have 800 gold to accelerate joao war, and units are approaching his lands from all directions
Izzy's down to 1 city
Cathy is gone
With some aggressive sacrifices I can possibly see finishing in 6-7 turns.
got to go, finishing up tonight hopefully.
Willem's 2 cities fell with successful revolts!!! we have 800 gold to accelerate joao war, and units are approaching his lands from all directions
Izzy's down to 1 city
Cathy is gone
With some aggressive sacrifices I can possibly see finishing in 6-7 turns.
got to go, finishing up tonight hopefully.
adrianj
Deity
Finishing in 6-7 turns? Finishing the whole game?
That's brilliant!
Edit: Judging from the SGOTM Progress page, we might guess that OSS and Plastic Ducks finished in the early ADs. Our closest rivals for 3rd might be XTeam who last posted a save on T285, implying their actual finish date could be as early as T286 I guess. Aggressive sacrifices to win in 6-7 turns might not be necessary provided we win before T286. I'm very happy to leave this up to you bcool.
Of course, OSS and PD could be playing mind games with everyone and played their last turnset spanning multiple centuries, so who really knows
That's brilliant!
Edit: Judging from the SGOTM Progress page, we might guess that OSS and Plastic Ducks finished in the early ADs. Our closest rivals for 3rd might be XTeam who last posted a save on T285, implying their actual finish date could be as early as T286 I guess. Aggressive sacrifices to win in 6-7 turns might not be necessary provided we win before T286. I'm very happy to leave this up to you bcool.
Of course, OSS and PD could be playing mind games with everyone and played their last turnset spanning multiple centuries, so who really knows
bcool
Deity
Ok played 1 extra turn because... We won!!! T273 (uploaded file and pm'd AlanH waiting for confirmation)
autolog...
autolog...
Spoiler :
bcool
Deity
autolog part II
Spoiler :
bcool
Deity
autolog part III
Spoiler :
adrianj
Deity
Yay! 
bcool, Can you message AlanH so we can have the go-ahead to view other teams' threads?
If my reading of the progress page is correct, we are guaranteed 3rd.
bcool, Can you message AlanH so we can have the go-ahead to view other teams' threads?
If my reading of the progress page is correct, we are guaranteed 3rd.
bcool
Deity
yes I just pm'd him.
mabraham
Deity
Well done to bc for the set, and to everyone for the game!
Apologies for not being able to contribute at the end, but it seems I could have done nothing relevant, anyway I wasn't out of bed yet when bc gave up waiting on me!
I'm surprised bc was able to get it done so fast - I'd been feeling a bit guilty for having not set up the rate-limiting Joao attack as well as perhaps I might have. Ideally, one really would like to aim at killing the last two-three opponents at about the same time.
Nods to aj for being right all along that we should go and hit people - and to Griff also who wanted us to do more scouting early. Had we scouted more to find Nidaros and London sooner, and/or chosen the routes for Magellan and Cook more luckily we could have been quite a lot faster, but perhaps not enough for second, even.
Apparently we did have enough access to early hammers to go and capture some real hammers sources, and I will be fascinated to see how Ducks and OSS did it.
I know I've learned heaps about the value and mechanism of early tile-sharing (whether land is scarce or not), and Duckweeding. Thanks, bc for putting those ideas forward!
Apologies for not being able to contribute at the end, but it seems I could have done nothing relevant, anyway
I wasn't out of bed yet when bc gave up waiting on me!I'm surprised bc was able to get it done so fast - I'd been feeling a bit guilty for having not set up the rate-limiting Joao attack as well as perhaps I might have. Ideally, one really would like to aim at killing the last two-three opponents at about the same time.
Nods to aj for being right all along that we should go and hit people - and to Griff also who wanted us to do more scouting early. Had we scouted more to find Nidaros and London sooner, and/or chosen the routes for Magellan and Cook more luckily we could have been quite a lot faster, but perhaps not enough for second, even.
Apparently we did have enough access to early hammers to go and capture some real hammers sources, and I will be fascinated to see how Ducks and OSS did it.
I know I've learned heaps about the value and mechanism of early tile-sharing (whether land is scarce or not), and Duckweeding. Thanks, bc for putting those ideas forward!
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