SGOTM 13 - One Short Straw

[Dhoomstriker]

Finally, I will say that if we are able to get a Warrior on Ragnar's mainland, we should probably have it walk down the eastern coast towards his capital.

If we see exactly when he leaves his capital, I suppose that we'd have a small window of opportunity (I'm talking closer to the end of your turnset in terms of timing, assuming that Ragnar hasn't launched his fleet by then), in order to put a Trireme in the "blocking position" 3S of the DesH Iron and then proactively declare war on him.

It may or may not work, but wouldn't it be awesome if he were dumb enough to suicide his fully-loaded Galleys on our Trireme? Certainly, that approach beats having to defeat his land units on land.

It's kind of wishful thinking until the future, perhaps for when we have 3 Triremes in the water, but it is a goal for us to potentially work towards as your turnset goes on.

 

[mdy]

lso, have you put any thought into sending one of our Workers to a different island? There's not much to do, but there are:

We could either do this now at the expense of delaying the Ragnar/William scout by 2T, or b y picking both up at the same time around T169.

Just to confirm, this turn is our "trigger point" for being able to start research on either Machinery or Optics, right?

Basically, if it is a Great Engineer, then as soon as we know Compass, we would be able to begin research on Optics at any time, right?

Similarly, if it is a Great Scientist, then we'd be able to begin research on Machinery at any time, right?

At this point I aim to have just stopped researching CS so we either research machinery next if it is a GS, or if it's a GE we bulb machinery and research compass next unless another Civ has researched it by that point at which point I would pause as we may want to consider researching something else in the hop we could get compass in trade. Optics would then come immediately after compass.

Perhaps the above "T151" is a left-over artifact from when we still had a Netted Clam.

Yes it is, fortunately this does not change anything important.

I'm guessing that the turn numbers for Iron City might be a bit off, due to growing slower from not having the Netted Clam, but do you mind building a Work Boat prior to that Warrior? If you do not want to do so, then can we build 2 Work Boats in Paris instead of just 1?

We could build 2 WB in the capital, but then, depening on what we can trade from the AI, we may not be able to complete the barracks there before we revolt to police state.

Again, I'm not sure which list you are using, but as per my previous two comments, these items need to be updated.

I made a copy and paste error when drawing up the plan. Fortunately this does not affect anything important.

If that's our exploration Warrior, then we probably really do have time to pick up and drop off the Worker that is currently on the Plains Hills square. We will have to wait until Turn 151 to pick up that Worker (but you will have to stop it from Roading immediately on Turn 150) and then send that Worker somewhere... maybe to Paris' island or Marble's island in order to build a Workshop?

It's T150 now so we don't have all that much time.

I think that I've given enough warnings on this point for stopping with 2T to completion. On your head it will be if an accidental misclick (or an Enter keypress accidentally slips and also hits the Shift key and thus) forces the turn to advance immediately before switching to a different tech.

Switching research will be the first thing I do on this turn to avoid this.

Maybe we should plant the Trireme 1 north of there? That way, if Ragnar goes around the north edge of the island that it is placed to the south of, we'll be in a slightly closer position to be able to intercept him.

The AI takes the quickest path to it's target, regardless of what this is he won't be going around the north of the island.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

We could either do this now at the expense of delaying the Ragnar/William scout by 2T, or b y picking both up at the same time around T169.

We don't really have need of earlier Workshops, but our Workers are essentially "idle" by just building Roads on Iron Island. In the end, it probably doesn't matter all that much.

That said, we have to wait for a Warrior to be built in Marble City on Turn 154 anyway, right? So, the farthest west that our Galley could be at the start of Turn 154 is 1 square NW of Marble City. That's a head start of 4 squares of movement to the west, assuming that you stop the Worker from building a Road on this turn and load him onto the Galley at the start of Turn 151.

It's not a big deal either way, but it's probably slightly better to get more Worker turns in the grand scheme of things. If nothing else, Marble City could probably use a Workshop in case we need that extra Hammer for a later build item.

At this point I aim to have just stopped researching CS so we either research machinery next if it is a GS, or if it's a GE we bulb machinery and research compass next unless another Civ has researched it by that point at which point I would pause as we may want to consider researching something else in the hop we could get compass in trade. Optics would then come immediately after compass.

Well, if we won't have Compass researched and we obtain a Great Engineer, then we might as well hold off on Lightbulbing him until Compass is done, right? That way, there is a tiny chance of two AIs who have Metal Casting (there are three such AIs) beating us to Machinery and thus allowing us to get Machinery in trade. Incredibly unlikely, but we might as well try for it, right? Even 1 Gold per Turn in Unit Upkeep Costs is potentially justifiable for such a chance.

We could build 2 WB in the capital, but then, depening on what we can trade from the AI, we may not be able to complete the barracks there before we revolt to police state.

Let's build the Work Boat then. A chance at +1 Happiness is more important and if we really have an emergency need to get an Axeman or something, then having a Barracks or not will not matter one bit (a Barracks is not like a Drydock where having it would actually increase the production of a Military Unit, in which case I'd have a different opinion about delaying the Building).

Switching research will be the first thing I do on this turn to avoid this.

mdy is The Gambling Man!

The AI takes the quickest path to it's target, regardless of what this is he won't be going around the north of the island.

True... for boats coming out of his capital. What's to say that he won't also send a boat from his northern City? The point is that putting the Trireme 3W + 1N of the Horse Resource really is a trivial enough change that doing so won't hurt us and has a tiny chance of helping us, so we might as well just do it, right?

 

[Dhoomstriker]

In regards to the switch into Police State:
If the concern is that we would want to whip an Axeman/Maceman immediately in Cities that will become Unhappy when Representation is no longer available, then consider the following:
On the second last turn of your turnset, i.e. the second last turn of the Golden Age, you will probably want to start a Military Unit Build Item in multiple Cities.

This unit might be an Axeman, a Swordsman, a Maceman (if we are that lucky with trades), a Catapult (again, if we are lucky with trades) or whatever.

The unit can still be whipped on the following turn when we revolt into Police State + Slavery, should we find our City to have Unhappy citizens. After the unit is whipped, then the build queue can be switched back to a Barracks or whatever.

We then have 15 turns before the Hammers will decay, meaning as many as 15 turns to get a Barracks built, as many as 15 turns to potentially obtain Theocracy, and as many as 15 turns to avoid paying Unit Upkeep Costs on the unit in question.


So, probably on the 2nd last turn of play, you should check each City's Happiness level and determine if, after the +3 Happiness from Representation disappears, that City will have Unhappy citizens. If it will, then such a City should start work on a Military Unit on the 2nd last turn of play.

That way, when the next player switches Civics during the last turn of the Golden Age, they can immediately whip Military Units in Unhappy Cities, since we'll have at least 1 Hammer invested in said Military Units.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

So, are you still planning on playing shortly? The changes that we're discussing are minor enough to be easy to incorporate to a plan and just play forward with them, right?

 

[mdy]

Problem #1 . It's T152 (I've played 2T) and William has cancelled the pigs for fish deal (he now has his own source of fish). This is a problem because we are now losing food in gold which will screw up our GP plan. We can't get our own source of pig back as we have just renegotiated our deal with Cathy.

There are two ways out of this:

1) We can use our existing WB for the crabs at the expense of giving up any possibility of using it to trade for a happy resource, and significantly delaying irons growth. We would lose 1 food in gold as a result, but our GP plan can JUST withstand this.

2) Trading stone to William for pigs

I don't think crippling iron is worth the possibility of William building extra walls, so I propose to make trade 2) later today if there are no objections.

Everything else is going according to plan so far.


One thing this has convinced me of, is that we should build a second WB for the crabs as partial insurance that Cathy cancels her trade deal with us.

This unit might be an Axeman, a Swordsman, a Maceman (if we are that lucky with trades), a Catapult (again, if we are lucky with trades) or whatever.

The unit can still be whipped on the following turn when we revolt into Police State + Slavery, should we find our City to have Unhappy citizens. After the unit is whipped, then the build queue can be switched back to a Barracks or whatever.

We then have 15 turns before the Hammers will decay, meaning as many as 15 turns to get a Barracks built, as many as 15 turns to potentially obtain Theocracy, and as many as 15 turns to avoid paying Unit Upkeep Costs on the unit in question.

We don't want to wait 15T(or anything close to it) to get our war started after the GA, but we should probably wait as late as possible to make this decision.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Problem #1 . It's T152 (I've played 2T) and William has cancelled the pigs for fish deal (he now has his own source of pigs).

Were you able to renegotiate the trade for at least a minimal bit of Gold per Turn? Probably not, but worth asking.

Now's when we really wish we had a Barb Galley Privateer again... that's ideally what we should have tried to do with the 2 Barb Galleys... whipped a Work Boat and then tried to lure them around into the AIs' lands. Anyway, that option is long gone (and wasn't really available anyway--where would we have whipped from?).

This is a problem because we are now losing food in pigs which will screw up our GP plan. We can't get our own source of pig back as we have just renegotiated our deal with Cathy.

From what I recall, we're getting 2 Health Resources from Cathy anyway, so getting our Pig back wouldn't have resolved the issue (we would have just lost the Sheep that we are getting from Cathy).

There are two ways out of this:

1) We can use our existing WB for the crabs at the expense of giing up any possibility of using it to trade for a happy resource, and significantly delaying irons growth. We would lose 1 food in gold as a result, but our GP plan can JUST withstand this.

2) Trading stone to William for pigs

I don't thin crippling iron is worth the possibility of William building an extra walls, so I propose to make trade 2) later today if there are no objections.

Either solution will be fine by me. Since we're hopefully already planning to build a Work Boat for the Crab later, I'm fine with trading-away our Stone (and thereby still using the Work Boat in Iron City).

Anyway, once the Great-Person-Generation time period is over and we have whipped away any population points using that excess Health, we can cancel the Stone deal.

Are there any Stone Wonders that we'd be helping him to build at this stage of the game? I THINK that The Great Wall is already gone, so probably only Moai. Oh well, it can't be helped. Even with Stone, Moai is expensive, so he'd probably lose out if he tried to build it anyway.

Everything else is going according to plan so far.

Okay, good to know.

One thing this has convinced me of, is that we should build a second WB for the crabs as partial insurance that Cathy cancels her trade deal with us.

Hmmm, it's far less likely to occur, since Fish (including Magical Fish) are so common on this map while other Resources tend to be regionally-based, but yeah, it's possible that she might do so.

Okay, as long as we no longer have the Stone (i.e. because Willem will have it), we won't have a "backup" Resource, so you might as well stop cancelling and renegotiating Resource Trades to Cathy, just in case your worst fears come to pass. Realistically, she'd have to build a new City, but I suppose that it is POSSIBLE for her borders to expand over top of a Pig or a Marble Resource. At least when we had the Stone, we had a backup option, but now, we might as well just forget about cancelling Resource Trades with Cathy... at least until we get the Crab and have an "extra" Resource again.

We don't want to wait 15T(or anything close to it) to get our war started after the GA, but we should probably wait as late as possible to make this decision.

Well, "as late as possible" is 2 turns left in the Golden Age, otherwise we'll have citizens not working squares in the last turn of the Golden Age in any City that will become unhappy when we give up on Representation. So, sure, we can put off the decision of which units to pre-build... but now that I think about it, it can't be Macemen, since we won't generate our last Great Scientist until 1 turn left in the Golden Age (although nothing says that it can't be a Warrior or an Axeman that later gets auto-upgraded to a Maceman as long as we keep it in the queue).

On that point--i.e. queue management--a unit need not be the top unit in the queue, just that it actually stays in the build queue somewhere on the turn that we learn Civil Service, and it should get auto-upgraded in the build queue to a Maceman... but probably not until the turn after we have knowledge of Civil Service in our hands.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Problem #1 . It's T152 (I've played 2T) and William has cancelled the pigs for fish deal (he now has his own source of pigs).

I just re-read what you wrote and had to go and double-check...

We were definitely exporting a (Magical) Fish and receiving a Pig in return. So, Willem must have connected a Fish Resource, while he already had at least 2 Pig Resources.

Not like it really matters--we still have the Health issue.

Spoiler :

 

[Dhoomstriker]

It's T152

Iron City is now Size 2, right?


Did Ragnar give us the 1 GPT for our Clam? ("Did he even still want our Clam?" is probably the real question here).

 

[mdy]

Iron City is now Size 2, right?

Yes, it is. We also got the 1GPT from Ragnar.

We were definitely exporting a (Magical) Fish and receiving a Pig in return. So, Willem must have connected a Fish Resource, while he already had at least 2 Pig Resources.

Yes, he has 2 pig resources in the diplomacy screen.

Are there any Stone Wonders that we'd be helping him to build at this stage of the game? I THINK that The Great Wall is already gone, so probably only Moai. Oh well, it can't be helped. Even with Stone, Moai is expensive, so he'd probably lose out if he tried to build it anyway.

The Great Walls gone, so the only stone wonder it would help him build would be the Chicken Ize if we trade COL to him.

re you able to renegotiate the trade for at least a minimal bit of Gold per Turn? Probably not, but worth asking.

Unfortunately William has 0GPT available for trade.

Well, "as late as possible" is 2 turns left in the Golden Age, otherwise we'll have citizens not working squares in the last turn of the Golden Age in any City that will become unhappy when we give up on Representation. So, sure, we can put off the decision of which units to pre-build... but now that I think about it, it can't be Macemen, since we won't generate our last Great Scientist until 1 turn left in the Golden Age (although nothing says that it can't be a Warrior or an Axeman that later gets auto-upgraded to a Maceman as long as we keep it in the queue).

Actually we no longer need to do this now that we are using the capital GP for machinery/optics, as we can use our final GP on engineering, and use No's 2 and 5 for astronomy.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Yes, it is. We also got the 1GPT from Ragnar.

Great!

Yes, he has 2 pig resources in the diplomacy screen.

Well, that's another reason to trade the Stone... if we have to wait to connect-up a Crab Resource, he might trade it away by the time that we're ready to get the Pig.

While, yes, it is true that Crab = Pig for Health, the less AI-AI trading overall, the better.

Thus, I would say that if we cannot connect-up the Crab on this turn, then we have no choice: trade the Stone.

If you CAN connect the Crab on this turn, then it's up to you if you want to wait for others to respond before making the trade of the Stone <-> Willem's Pig versus giving the others a chance to argue for Netting the Crab.

The Great Walls gone, so the only stone wonder it would help him build would be the Chicken Ize if we trade COL to him.

No worries. It's not amazing if an AI builds this Wonder, but chances are that if this situation arises, it means that we got a tech out of Willem, which should more than make up for any future additional bombarding. Plus, we'd be able to cancel the Stone deal before he'd realistically be finished building the Chichen Itza, so he'd just be stuck slow-building, say, half of it, anyway.

Unfortunately William has 0GPT available for trade.

Oh well, you can't win them all.

Actually we no longer need to do this now that we are using the capital GP for machinery/optics, as we can use our final GP on engineering, and use No's 4 and 5 for astronomy.

The Great Person plan is soooo confusing! Thank you for handling it! I don't think that anyone else could have done it!

 

[mdy]

If you CAN connect the Crab on this turn, then it's up to you if you want to wait for others to respond before making the trade of the Stone <-> Willem's Pig versus giving the others a chance to argue for Netting the Crab.

We can't connect it till next turn so we would lose 1 food. We have just 2 spare food in fish according to the GP plan.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

We can't connect it till next turn so we would lose 1 food. We have just 2 spare food in fish according to the GP plan.

Rather than the loss of Food (which, as you say, won't matter too much), I am far more concerned about the chance to lose the opportunity to trade the Pig (say, to Joao's Horse).

Given the possibility of losing the Pig as a tradeable Resource if we wait a turn, I see no choice but to trade our Stone <-> Willem's Pig on the current turn.

 

[Mitchum]

I agree with trading Stone for Pig. Good work so far, mdy!

 

[mdy]

Problem #2. It's turn T156 and Jao is demanding 160 gold. I'm planning to say no as we need the gold and it would probably take him a significant amount of time to get an invasion force to us.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

From my experience, when an AI Demands Gold like that, it is to "exactly top up" the Fair and Forthright Trading bonus to +4, as well as to give you +1 for having given them "Tribute" (or "Help" if they were already Pleased or higher with you).

So, it's not meant maliciously but as a test to see how much we'd like to curry his favour.

Therefore, you are likely right in thinking that we won't see an enemy army for a long time.

If he were Demanding a Tech, it would be a different story.

Note, that I am going by anecdotal evidence here, not by code-digging.


Joao is a terrible Tech-trading Partner, and while I don't like angering the AIs any more than we have to, I think that I would agree with you here: we don't need his positive Diplo modifiers as much as we would like to use the Gold.

How much Gold do we lose per Turn at a 100% Science Rate? Was it around 40 Gold per Turn? If it's a number close to that amount, then we're talking more than 3 turns' worth of research.


So, I agree with you: refuse his Demand.

 

[mdy]

We are currently losing 34gpt at 100% science.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Yeah, that number is even worse: more like 4 turns' worth of Research.


NOW... there is one other thought: if we ACCEPT his Demand, we could Demand back form him.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Do you have any way of getting me roughly what his Power value (his Soldiers value on the F9 -> DEMOGRAPHICS screen) is? Maybe you have been taking screenshots of that page? I have older screenshots from my turnset of that page.

I'd also need to know our Soldiers value, which should be clearly seen in the left-hand column on that screen.

Still, I can only offer an approximation at best of how much Gold we'd be able to Demand in return, since, as much as I have stared at the Demand code, I still haven't figured out why I can't get a number that is close enough to be off only by rounding errors.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Joao, from your last screenshot, was Cautious with us at -1 and Annoyed with us at -4. Those numbers seem relatively promising, in that he probably likes us a bit more than the average AI via Hidden Diplo Modifiers.

However, do you know how close we were to "filling up" the +4 Fair and Forthright Trading relations?

Ideally, we'd get him to Pleased by accepting his Demand... if we can't do so, then Demanding back from him is unlikely to work at this time, and then he'd just go and spend the money by the time that we would be able to counter-Demand from him.